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We were fools to believe candlesticks can predict

  • #161
  • Edited 1:39pm Jun 9, 2014 1:13pm | Edited 1:39pm
Quoting AmirShahiN
{quote} One Simple Question,How You wana Predict The Future of Price With just Single Candle Patterns like Hammer or doji or Engulfing Pattern Which Created from 3 Candles ? Tell me How About The Rest Of The Candles ? Daily Candle is Created from 24 H 1 Candle What About Rest Of Theme ? are Those Past Candles Bullshit ? Are They in Charts for Being Pretty ? Or There is A lot Of Data on theme ?
i never try to predict the future,
in fact i rarely use a candlestick, im not a newbie ive been doing it 8yrs,
so know more or less what works and what does nt

candlesticks on the whole are a waste of time (for me anyway)
indicators can tell the story much more and quicker

if i could remove all candlesticks except for the upside down pin bar or shooting star or whatever its called
i probably would
some heiken ashi indis are ok though, but they are smoothing out the nonsense

cycles / news and S/R is all that matters and a few well chosen indis
and as the market is just news, then learning what price does during news is most important (imo)

maybe though i have nt looked long enough for candlestick patterns, i participated in a few webinars with Steve Nisson some yrs ago and the different patterns he was showing and talking about was very overwelming
he sells many books and videos on the subject and often claims he invented them
(although was n't that the Japanese in the 1600s?)

if some can find candlestick patterns that work why not use them,
but indis at S/R however bad they are at times, probably win more overall, with abit of filtering, than candlesticks alone
  • #162
  • Jun 9, 2014 2:15pm Jun 9, 2014 2:15pm
Quoting Carlsberg
{quote} i never try to predict the future, in fact i rarely use a candlestick, im not a newbie ive been doing it 8yrs, so know more or less what works and what does nt candlesticks on the whole are a waste of time (for me anyway) indicators can tell the story much more and quicker if i could remove all candlesticks except for the upside down pin bar or shooting star or whatever its called i probably would some heiken ashi indis are ok though, but they are smoothing out the nonsense cycles / news and S/R is all that matters and a few well chosen...
Steve Know Nothing About Real Secret in Candlesticks or Maybe if he know, Then He Try Its Best Too Fool Everyone, The way he or those 96% losers of Forex Market Lock at CandleSticks is Totally Wrong And is Not True at all ! Theres is Mathematic Behind Candles and All Data's in Candles are Important
I Very Laugh about Anyone who Lock at Candles Like The Way Steve Do it
If You be Able The Understand Why Japonese Invented CandlesTicks Then Maybe you'll come Close To The Begaining of What i am Saying
Bigest Secret of Technical Analyses is in Candlesticks From Mathematic View
You Must Love CandleSticks
  • #163
  • Jun 9, 2014 3:30pm Jun 9, 2014 3:30pm
Quoting AmirShahiN
{quote} Steve Know Nothing About Real Secret in Candlesticks or Maybe if he know, Then He Try Its Best Too Fool Everyone, The way he or those 96% losers of Forex Market Lock at CandleSticks is Totally Wrong And is Not True at all ! Theres is Mathematic Behind Candles and All Data's in Candles are Important I Very Laugh about Anyone who Lock at Candles Like The Way Steve Do it If You be Able The Understand Why Japonese Invented CandlesTicks Then Maybe you'll come Close To The Begaining of What i am Saying Bigest Secret of Technical Analyses is...
Steve knows something about selling books and videos though,

quite interesting what you say, and probably worth looking into the real origins of candlesticks
but on higher TFs as i trade, candlesticks are not important red or green, long or short
ONLY price at S/R and then an entry signal matters

because why does a candlestick form and then move with any conviction
70%+ of the time because of buyers or sellers at S/R
so one can cut out the candles except as previously mentioned when there is a pin bar
as a pin bar on one chart is actually a double bottom or top on the next lower TF
(or so i believe, but could be wrong)
  • #164
  • Jun 9, 2014 3:53pm Jun 9, 2014 3:53pm
Quoting Carlsberg
{quote} Steve knows something about selling books and videos though, quite interesting what you say, and probably worth looking into the real origins of candlesticks but on higher TFs as i trade, candlesticks are not important red or green, long or short ONLY price at S/R and then an entry signal matters because why does a candlestick form and then move with any conviction 70%+ of the time because of buyers or sellers at S/R so one can cut out the candles except as previously mentioned when there is a pin bar as a pin bar on one chart is actually...
At The Begaining of My Familiarity With Forex One Pro Guy Told me Forget About Anything you will Here in Forex and Just Take My Advice and Only Go Analyse CandlesTicks , At That Time i Laughed to that guy and say why When we have a lot of indicators and why when we have a lot of interesting Methods I Must Only Focus on Candles .
After 5-6 years i Back to Zero Point(( CandleSticks)) and I know Now Why He Told Me Candles are Inmportant
Everything You want is inside Candles
Candlesticks have All You want >>> Price+Time+.....
And Another Thing For Those who said We Shouldn't Predict Future' I Again Laugh on Theme
This Market is Predictable Exactly like Weather And Yes Some Times We maybe Wrong but A Lot of Times We cane be Right
So Focus on Word Predict,Because Prediction of Price Movments is The Exact Thing you Must do And You Must Do it With Information and Your Information's Come from CandleSticks
AmirShahiN
You Must Love CandleSticks
  • #165
  • Jun 9, 2014 7:22pm Jun 9, 2014 7:22pm
Quoting Carlsberg
{quote} Steve knows something about selling books and videos though, quite interesting what you say, and probably worth looking into the real origins of candlesticks but on higher TFs as i trade, candlesticks are not important red or green, long or short ONLY price at S/R and then an entry signal matters because why does a candlestick form and then move with any conviction 70%+ of the time because of buyers or sellers at S/R so one can cut out the candles except as previously mentioned when there is a pin bar as a pin...

what if you are able to determine S/R levels ,levels were you should be buying into or levels were you should be selling before they become a pretty picture on your chart....that whats being missed.im afraid mr Amirshahin is is trying to tell you something.but nobody wants to listen,it is not a secret holy grail.but good sound advice.you also mention cycles are important to your trading again amirshanin is telling you something regarding this.the candle stick also has this information within it.the difference being if understood you would have made your trade got your pips and out ,whilst the collective mob are trading as you mention a useless information from the pattern that has now formed.the mob are trading past irrelevant formations,you could be trading present relevant price, isnt that crazy
  • #166
  • Jun 9, 2014 7:39pm Jun 9, 2014 7:39pm
what if i usually always know where major S/R is, would nt that change things somewhat
as i said twice previously candlesticks don't matter - only to those who don't know where S/R is
S/R is the only leading indicator

besides my indis tell me when to enter, not me, and my indis trade better than i ever could without them
time and time again they say Carlsberg "what do you think your doing buying or selling there,
we know best, so don't try to predict anything or read the candlesticks, just follow our plan and our signals"

there's no need to make it harder than it is lol

if someones system is set up well enough, and it should win at least twice as much as it looses
then not much else matters, except for money management
  • #167
  • Jun 9, 2014 7:49pm Jun 9, 2014 7:49pm
Quoting Carlsberg
what if i usually always know where major S/R is, would nt that change things somewhat as i said twice previously candlesticks don't matter - only to those who don't know where S/R is S/R is the only leading indicator besides my indis tell me when to enter, not me, and my indis trade better than i ever could without them time and time again they say Carlsberg "what do you think your doing buying or selling there, we know best, so don't try to predict anything or read the candlesticks, just follow our plan and our signals"
hi Carlsberg;

im not suggesting your trading incorrectly ,if its working then great .im just adding support to amir,s point regarding the candle stick.the candle stick and the next level of r/s can be determined from 1 single candle stick,also from that candle stick one can measure the present cycle of price.after all the indis are giving signals based on this very information only quite often they are to late .....

ps I prefer Belgium wheat beer,
  • #168
  • Jun 10, 2014 12:00am Jun 10, 2014 12:00am
Whether candlesticks work for you, well that's a personal journey, not one that can necessarily be argued against as each trader has their own methods (and their must be millions). That's why it's so damned hard to trade profitably with so many methods out there. Years pass by and you're back where you started. In saying that there are obvious methods that don't take long to dispel, or at least marginalise.

Money management has to be at the core of all systems. From there....candlesticks? Experiment and find out for yourself.

Smiler
Keep It Simple Stupid
  • #169
  • Jun 10, 2014 5:57am Jun 10, 2014 5:57am
Quoting diceman555
{quote} what if you are able to determine S/R levels ,levels were you should be buying into or levels were you should be selling before they become a pretty picture on your chart....that whats being missed.im afraid mr Amirshahin is is trying to tell you something.but nobody wants to listen,it is not a secret holy grail.but good sound advice.you also mention cycles are important to your trading again amirshanin is telling you something regarding this.the candle stick also has this information within it.the difference being if understood you would...
Hi
You are absolutely Right, You got My Point Exactly
If we know how to Analyses CandlesTicks Then We can Predict Movements Before They Happen,This is What I do Always
and All Indicators Show Movements After They Complete Their Move.
Patterns The Way Steve tell everybody is Useless because They already Happen And What We Must Expect From a Thing Which Already Complete Its Move and It has be done ?
The Way Every Novice Trader Analyse Market Is Like in a Rainy Day When Rain Started We say Today We have Rain !
CandleStick's Show Everything Before They Happen
And About Cycles I Must Say All Those Cycles Are in CandleStick's
Good Luck Diceman I know You Know A Lot Of Things
AmirShahiN
You Must Love CandleSticks
  • #170
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:27pm Jul 23, 2014 10:27pm
How can candlesticks be wrong? Let us think , , , Just when does the market open and close?
Only on the weekly candle. All other candles are useless for open and close levels.
Some time periods have more volatility than others so the candles grow and shrink , , ,
Isn't it more important to know the mid-range price of each candle and look back to see where that mid-range price has been going?
Just a thought , , ,
Be yourself, everyone else is already taken.
  • #171
  • Aug 29, 2014 11:28pm Aug 29, 2014 11:28pm
No, you can't completely write off candlesticks as an efficient prediction tool. The candlestick technology had been in use since rice traders in Japan first invented it to estimate potential price movements. Candlesticks indicate the opening, high, low and closing values for one period of trading. The period could be one year, a day or even an hour. The wicks or shadows of candlestick are also largely employed in interpretation of stock charts. When combined with the Relative Strength Index, Candlesticks are just so powerful.
  • #172
  • Aug 30, 2014 2:00am Aug 30, 2014 2:00am
Most candlesticks are kinda "meh"... I use my own price/volume formula to generate my own price bars... Works for me! However, it doesn't really look anything like your usual candlestick. I like to do a lot of mean return and mean to s/r trading, so my candles are designed as a tool for analysis of mean return/continuation probabilities.

Normal candlesticks and candlestick patterns are a bunch of hocus pocus. They didn't use to be, but starting from the 1990's onward the market steadily and efficiently priced their patterns out so they no longer give an edge. What ruined them was the spread of knowledge about candles as online brokerages/technical analysis education took off. There is still some value in weekly/monthly candles, but that is about it! Lower time-frame candle patterns are mostly efficient now, and becoming steadily more and more efficient by the day. There is actually research that proves this...

Quote from Bulkowski's website...
"A study using nearly 14,000 chart patterns covering the years from 1991 to 2008 shows that chart patterns fail between two and four times more often now than they did in the past. For example, the average failure rate of chart patterns to climb at least 10% in the 1990s bull market was 14%. During the bull market years of 2003 to 2007, the failure rate had doubled to 28%.

Downward breakouts showed a similar trend with the average 10% failure rate rising from 26% in the 1990s to 49% during the bull market years of the 2000s.

Here is a more extreme example. In 1991 the 10% failure rate was 11% but peaked at 44% in 2007. In other words, four times as many chart patterns failed to show post breakout rises of at least 10% in 2007 compared to 1991."
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #173
  • Aug 30, 2014 9:44am Aug 30, 2014 9:44am
[quote=meanvel; In other words, four times as many chart patterns failed to show post breakout rises of at least 10% in 2007 compared to 1991."[/quote]

It is most likely due to government interference with the free market. They inject money in crisis to support the market, and public opinion of it, to try to avert a panic.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #174
  • Aug 30, 2014 9:56am Aug 30, 2014 9:56am
I admit that I do not care much about candlesticks or their voodoo. Since their invention there have been changes in the mathematics of measuring samples and determining relationships and control limits. This "new" math outperforms ANY candlestick strategy you wish to employ and does so with a substantially higher degree of probability.

How do I use candlesticks? I like them over bars, lol. They are colorful.

Joking aside, for me it is merely design. I do not trade individual candles/bars. I trade a series, or array, to the general direction of price over time. The single candle or bar doesn't matter at all. While it is true there are instances of pin bars/candles that hold, and perhaps doji's are accurate from time to time, the rest is too precise for the time frame I trade. The time frame that "might" be accurate for candlesticks is so low in profit potential that it is ridiculous to trade it, unless you are a position trader, or I mean investor. If you trade for a living though, and analyze collections of candlesticks, like I do, then the individual open/close/high/low means absolutely nothing since it is only a part of the whole. In reality, I could trade every trade without even seeing a single candlestick, and not change a thing to my strategy or its earnings. So, how's that for voodoo? LOL.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #175
  • Aug 30, 2014 10:58am Aug 30, 2014 10:58am
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} You are being laughed at now. Candlesticks have nothing to do whatsoever with the causes of currency fluctuations, any more than than the movement of a watches hands causes the sun to cross the sky or the structure of a calendar causes birds to migrate.
Japanese candles are just the graphic representation of an event. Are not the cause and the effect are also made. This tool serves only to forecast future effects probabilistic force but at no time is absolute, fatal or mandatory.

Las velas japonesas son solo la representación grafica de un evento. No son la causa y de hecho tampoco son el efecto. Esta herramienta tan solo sirve para prever las fuerza probabilística de efectos futuros pero en ningún momento es absoluta, fatal o mandatorio.
  • #176
  • Aug 30, 2014 4:19pm Aug 30, 2014 4:19pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} It is most likely due to government interference with the free market. They inject money in crisis to support the market, and public opinion of it, to try to avert a panic.
Yea, there is quite a bit of government interference with the markets in recent years. Well... More like "central bank micromanagement". A lot of old hedge fund managers have quit the game because it screws up their longer term trades when the central bankers manage market sentiment.
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #177
  • Aug 31, 2014 1:53am Aug 31, 2014 1:53am
Quoting pemully
we practiced witchcraft,believing that candle bars would predict the future.We will be studied and laughed at,by future generations.We were traders.
You are mistaken. No one here on FF ever claimed candle bars predict anything. If you don't agree, show me just one post claiming that and I will surrender my FF Membership.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #178
  • Edited 6:11am Aug 31, 2014 3:33am | Edited 6:11am
half the time its the lack of knowledge ,or will to take a single pattern further ,with the pitfalls of the pattern such as location etc ,
that give candles a bad name ,its not an easy business at all nothing is concrete ,and market is designed to take your money

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=502060
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #179
  • Sep 7, 2014 3:33pm Sep 7, 2014 3:33pm
Quoting Bones
half the time its the lack of knowledge ,or will to take a single pattern further ,with the pitfalls of the pattern such as location etc , that give candles a bad name ,its not an easy business at all nothing is concrete ,and market is designed to take your money http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=502060
No, your psychology naturally makes you lose money until you conquer your natural instincts. The markets do not care about you as an individual at all... Unless you are trading billions, then you might get in little battles with other big boys over defending levels or supporting/preventing breakouts.
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #180
  • Sep 7, 2014 5:33pm Sep 7, 2014 5:33pm
Just my 2 cents please. I use to not take a master candle and several inside candles seriously until my girlfriend
Kathy was sitting in front of the charts with me one day, and knows nothing about trading, pointed out that the inside
candles represent hesitation, and when the body of a red candle "closes" below the master candle's low wick,
the hesitation is over. Its amazing how my trading has improved! It also helps if the whole setup is below the 200 SMA
and is part of a down move, it works.
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