The Doctor's 5Percent Forex Journal

Currency Pairs : USDSGD & CADSGD

Technical Perspectives:

USDSGD retraced lower in the early asia and europe sessions along with USDJPY seen moving lower but managed to find some bids near 1.2490 and 101.10 respectively before retracing in the US Sessions towards the Asia's hours high. The early downmove in the Monday movement is a strong bullish move for dollar, as it moved down first and managed to close near its high showing a demand and longer wick trading in a candlestick movement. Support may be tested again, but technically it signify a strong support.

Intra-day resistance for USDSGD lies at 1.2515, which can be indicated as the key pivot on the USDSGD chart, above 1.2515, we should see a stronger movement towards next key resistance at 1.2540. Meanwhile, CADSGD is trading on the upper boundary range, and 1.1540 seems prone to breakout soon if we see momentum rush align on USDSGD as well. However, technically, sellers are still entering in this level, but price action seems to be bullish unless S1 on CADSGD is broken first.

Technically, the key mover for today is GBP CPI y/y, else other fundamental movement will be purely updated via social media like twitter as such from political comments or global events like Ukraine etc.

Dollar was overall mixed yesterday with Aussie being the worst performer while GBP remained rangy for today's retail sales. Key events for today is JPY's movement from BOJ Press Conference and BOJ monetary minutes.

USDSGD has challenged resistance yesterday but did not manage to push through as it rotated lower and found resistance turns support bids off 1.2515 just earlier and re-testing the 1.2540's resistance currently. A push and close above 1.2540 is a bullish view for 1.2568 and 1.2700. Only a false break and contain below 1.2540 is favorable for the bearish out look.

CADSGD is broadly rangy on the 2 identified candlestick between R1 and S2, price will range between this 2 value until either side breakout where technical trend will begin again.

A few FOMC members will be speaking today throughout the US session, with FOMC Meeting Minutes being the next key highlight which should talk about the higher NFP attained recently along with better employment rate at 6.3% which may hint on forward guidance for the USD. However, the market remained very mixed at this level, as the USD is not convincingly making a push through on the technical side. As FOMC is likely to continue to control its hawkish outlook by repeating that the participation rate has dropped and economy remained sluggish as people do not want to look for jobs, while most jobs filled were also part-time jobs as well. Tapering is likely to continue as usual.

Currency Pairs : USDSGD & CADSGD

Technical Perspectives:

USDSGD has been ranging since last week with key resistance at 1.2540 still intact until a break through and close above 1.2542 then further bullish momentum should ignite towards 1.2568 and 1.2600 respectively. Meanwhile, as observed via the chart, price is range trading between 1.2540-1.2503 as indicated.

CADSGD after breaking the downward trendline within the range has ignited a bullish momentum towards key resistance of 1.1540, sellers have taken this opportunity to sell until 1.1540 is overlapped by bullish price actions. The immediate trend for CADSGD is up until a bearish candlestick starts to reveal itself, the probability of a technical breakout seems to be higher if USDSGD breaks 1.2540 as well, resulting in a domino effect.

The key fundamental would be ECB president draghi whom will may 2 speech today and tomorrow, which should affect the EUR dollar and to see if this retracement seen on the dollar can last or rejected once again.

After failing to push above 1.2540 key resistance over the past 3-4 days, $USDSGD is stucked in a limited range mainly between 1.2540-1.2500, with immediate intra-day pivot of trend favors at 1.2515. Price action earlier this morning has showed reluctance to move above resistance following a strong rejection on wick-trading earlier this morning. The following movement was followed by strong retracement seen across other currency pairs against the USD as eur, aud and gbp moved above USD from previous day high.

$CADSGD is now threatening a breakout against the #SGD at key resistance of 1.1540, if CADSGD can find resistance turns support towards the europe session above 1.1540. Price should maintain a bullish view to ignite a trend higher with no key resistance in sight yet, but RSI value is still below 70 as the bullish train has not unleashed the full potential to ignite yet. Should the RSI value on the hour 4 chart moved above 70 is likely to lead to a further 50-150 pips movement higher, which is currently at about 65 value at this moment.

There isn't much data on Monday which explains a slow rangy side way market. Volatility and liquidity is slightly picking up towards the end of month.

Key Fundamental events :
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
ECB President Draghi Speaks
CB Consumer Confidence

Done by intern

Some charts by intern.

Some tips to share.

#FOMC

The Fed continues with its tapering plan as it window down monthly pace of mortgage and treasury bond purchases by another $10 billion starting in July down from 45 Billion to 35 Billion. The tapering agenda was quite priced-in as the USD rebounded from its recent losses ahead of the FOMC event.

The key agenda for this early morning’s event was the FOMC economic projections, which remained a dovish one led by Yellen. Officials now see the economy expanding at a rate of 2.2% in 2014, substantially lower from the former projection growth rate of 3% offered last year. However, the Fed believe this will pick up in 2015 and 2016 respectively.

On an overall forecast, the Fed is believe to slowly increase the funds rate as it project to hit 1.25% by the end of 2015, 2.5% by end of 2016. if it raises the interest rates too quickly, it will stunt economic growth. But if it keep the rates for too long, encouraging people to spend and take on debt could also lead to another bubble as several states are still recovering from the housing bubble.

In short, this is the last year to get cheap loans and more liquidity is likely to increase in the last batch of low rates at 0.25%. Thus, we should see increasing inflation into the economy of US within this 2 year.

USDSGD was trading at wick resistance near 1.2542 on yesterday’s Asia sessions with multiple re-test at the resistance of tuesday’s US sessions. Price dipped to resistance turns support pivot at 1.2514 ahead of FOMC and spiked up slightly into 1.2520 before dropping to Support 2 zone of 1.2488. Overall, the price action was rather bearish from the yesterday movement with pairs like AUD, NZD, GBP and EUR rebounding strongly with EUR and AUD as top performer for the day.

Shorter-term range trading is now identified at 1.2450-1.2540, a 90 pips range. With current pivot stands at 1.2514 for downside and upside range trading.

CADSGD remained rangy after a bullish turn yesterday from its sell-down.

GBP may threatened to push above 1.7 for the 3rd attempt after closing above 1.6992. Key resistance is now 1.7020. With technical trend breakout possible at 1.72 and 1.75 in time to come. Unless GBP staged a strong reversal from here. AUD at 0.9460 as key resistance.

The USD continues its toll after the FOMC as it trend lower against its counter-parts especially against the euro and stirling which has been capped at 1.36 and 1.7 over the recent attempts. GBPUSD rosed to 1.7062 above the August 2009 high seen near 1.7043. The future targets are 1.72 and 1.75 to come. AUDUSD was also capped near 0.9430 below its high of 0.9460, as it rotated to 0.9400 for closing.

USDSGD was dragged lower from FOMC's sell off, as it breached the support at 1.2478 and 1.2471. And dipped below to 1.2465 but was lifted up as a higher low u-turn seen above 1.2450-55. The retracement found initial resistance off 1.2503, its first pullback from the down-trend. But buyers could be seen at 1.2450-70 level until 1.2449 is breached. Pivot remains the same at 1.2514.

CADSGD has found short-term resistance at double top near 1.1555, sellers could be seen with next level at 1.1589 from technical's breakout. CAD will be moving on tonight's event.

US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index arrived at 17.8 above consensus of 14.3, as it cushion USD's from its wednesday. We are likely to see a range trading of 1.2450-1.2515 for the USDSGD for the meanwhile.

AUDUSD sellers are still in control as long below 0.9460, 0.9430 could be seen as a lower high u-turn selling resistance. GBPUSD is threatening breakout above 1.70, only a bearish engulfing day could put GBPUSD back at its former range below 1.6992.

Key events:
EUR - German PPI m/m
JPY - BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
CAD - Core CPI m/m
CAD - Core Retail Sales m/m

The Asia market was ignited by a Risk On sentiment trading upon the release of HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI arriving at 50.8 vs consensus of 49.7 after several months of contraction below the reading of 50.0. The data arrived at a 6 months high where AUD lifted from its support channel from 0.9380 zone towards the resistance at 0.9444 just shy of its 6 months high near 0.9460. Other pairs like GBP and EUR also lifted higher with JPY selling off initially.

However, the Europe sessions pulled back the dollar after the EUR Data missed most of its consensus. US Existing Home sales arrived 4.89M above its consensus of 4.74M, however that didn't lift the dollar further, where the market seeps into a side-way market into the night closing with a limited range of 40-50 pips across most pairs.

Current USDSGD range is 1.2450-1.2542, with buyer seeking entries at 1.2450-70 until 1.2450 is breached. Where immediate pivots remained the same at 1.2514, it was where the USDSGD pulled back initially from its last week's sell off.

Today, there are 2 key pairs to look for; GBP and AUD, as both of them are near its resistance of 1.7060 and 0.9460 respectively. Inflation Reporting Hearings from the GBP may either sell off heavily from its resistance or further ignite a breakout above which may send a domino effects for AUD to lift above 0.9460 and further pushing other crosses higher against the USD.

CADSGD have also lifted higher after breaking 1.1590 resistance, with bullish bias remained above former resistance level, and trending higher along the trend-line drawn.

Key Fundamental Movers Today

German Ifo Business Climate - EUR
Inflation Report Hearings - GBP
New Home Sales - USD
CB Consumer Confidence - USD

After the USD strengthened on Tuesday, it returned much of its gains back to the crosses like GBP and AUD. Despite GBP CBI Realized Sales arrived below its consensus, it did not sell off. USDSGD have a strong retracement after the Tuesday’s data by pushing back to its pivot point at resistance 1 at 1.2514. GBP pulled back to one of its former Asia low at 1.7002 before retracing back to yesterday Asia high.

However, the upside movement did not last when US Final GDP q/q arrived failing below consensus at -2.9% since Jun 25, 2009. The US Economy contracted in the first quarter by the most since the depths of the last recession as consumer spending cooled. It marked the biggest downward revision from the agency’s second GDP estimate since records began in 1976. US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m also arrived below consensus at -0.1% vs 0.3%. The Immediate effect was a heavy dollar sell off for about 20-30 pips across most majors with AUD closing the day as the biggest winner after a tuesday sell off. AUDUSD continue to find bids at 0.9355 above its past week low of 0.9330, currently below one of its resistance at 0.9410, the next at 0.9440 and 0.9460 respectively.

Flash Services PMI arrived 61.2 which has helped to temporary halt the initial sell off. USDSGD support remained the same at 1.2450 with 1.2480 as Support 1.

CADSGD continue its bullish momentum above 1.1590. However, over the past 24 hours it has yet to make new high and close above, prompting possibility to retrace back lower again first possibly above 1.1590 pivot as resistance turns support.


Key Fundamental Events:
EU Economic Summit – EU, Non Data, await speeches or quotes.
BOE Gov Carney Speaks – GBP, Non data, await speeches or quotes.
BOE Financial Stability Report – GBP, Non Data, Monetary report.
Unemployment Claims – US, Data

The Dollar closed broadly weaker for the week with AUD, GBP and EUR all threatening for a breakout near its key resistance channel. Despite today is a monday, and it marks the monthly close for the month of June, we are anticipating volatility to be higher on an important closing.

USDSGD is still pretty much rangy with short term support at 1.2480 and short term resistance below 1.2514. 6 Months Key support lies 1.2450, and 3 month resistance lies 1.2600. The EUR is lined up as the key mover for today with fundamental events queuing ahead during the Europe Opening. The key highlight would be Eur CPI Flash Estimate, to determine if Eur is going to get out of this short-term downtrend below 1.3680.

USD will also be weighed upon if the Europe Sessions would be found to be risk-on, with key events such as Chicago PMI and Pending Home sales is likely to move the market especially if the Europe Session is risked-on with consensus placed slightly higher for the US Data.

This is a heavy week with major events piled up across most currency pairs; US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ECB Press Conference and US Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate all occurring this Thursday! due to a Friday US Bank Holiday, or its independence Day.

CADSGD continues to trend higher since breaking above 1.1590, with no clear signs of resistance as yet. CAD GDP m/m tonight will also moved the CADSGD tonight.

The bearish closing on the Month of June for the dollar resumed its momentum on the Tuesday Market. Major crosses continued its rampage on the dollar as they bullied the weakest with AUD initiating the first push with strong Data coming from China on its PMI output at its consensus level. The RBA statement this round was well received as hawkish without much complaints on its current AUD's Price level, despite few months back RBA Steven were hinting for a 0.85 where the market only hits the lowest near 0.8660 where it made its major reversal.

AUD's recent resistance at 0.9460 is officially broken, immediate pivot is at 0.9460 with bullish bias above, until price action can reclaim back the resistance channel to put AUD back in the bearish biased zone.

There was a domino effect on Tuesday where GBP Manufacturing PMI arrived 57.5 vs 56.7 where GBP ignited a further breakthrough above 1.7120 into 1.7160 before stabilizing. EURUSD did not cross the offers on 1.37 as the market awaits the ECB press conference on Draghi's comments.

USDSGD have broken the past few day's support found on 1.2480 arriving at its 6 month low at 1.2450 zone just earlier. This is a very crucial zone of support, large bids and buyers are found on this level. Buyers should continue to seize opportunity buying from this level at 1.2450 until its broken and closed below. No doubt, the trend is dollar bear at this moment, should USDSGD trade above 1.2480, the support is confirmed.

CADSGD has broken its 4 hour range trend line and re-testing near R1 on its current high level of 1.1720, if CADSGD failed to make a new high here, price action will hint for further retracement below after breaking its current S1.

The Key highlight for the previous week was the strong data output from both the ADP and NFP both high above its consensus, along with US Unemployment rate dipping lower to 6.1%. The biggest winner remained the GBP which was the most resilient after both GBPUSD and GBPJPY crossed its 5 year high. While the biggest losers were both the EUR and AUD is potentially likely to lower further if the USD happened to strengthen when GBP retraces.

The monthly candlestick and weekly candlestick was rather bearish for the USDSGD as it closes near 1.2450. We would expect the key support at 1.2450 to hold for the time being and possible a reversal may start if it doesn't go below for the 3rd time it reaches 1.2449. However, sell stops and stop losses are spotted below key support of 1.2440 which heads for 1.2360-80 as the next target near its 1 year low.

The JPY remained broadly weaker after the jobs data, along with GBPJPY pushing above 175. Possible reversal on the GBPJPY can be seen if it retraced back below 174.00 level. The output for GBP overall remained fairly bullish for the recent terms. But we should see GBP retrace its recent gains if the GBP MPC Rate Statement do not add hawkish outlook on its forward guidance of rate raise.

Another key fundamental event other than the GBP MPC Rate Statement is the FOMC Minutes which may input the recent weak GDP Output which may affect the USD's recent bids.

CADSGD has also retrace lower after crossing one of its recent high of 1.1720, possible retracement lower if it can go below the S1’s support. Above 1.1720 is bullish again as it will threaten to move higher.

USDSGD attempted to surge higher after a recent false breakdown near 1.2390-95, as it surpassed the Monday's high above 1.2420 in the Asia trading hours. Intra-day high arrived at 1.2435 but retraced to 1.2420 prior to yellen's testimonial before the congress.

GBPUSD eventually rotated lower to our monthly pivot at 1.7060-70 which has acted as a former resistance prior to 1.7180 before the release of CPI Data. Upon new release, GBPUSD surged back to resistance once again after the CPI beat estimates at 1.9% vs 1.6%, this saw the GBP rallied against all crosses. GBP extended a 1% gains in the European trading hours.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment continued to melt down as it plunged to 27.1 vs 28.9, the lowest since Dec 2012. Technically, EUR should have headed to test 1.35's support but remain broadly afloat with some minor sell-off due to the surge in GBP against the USD which helped other crosses to maintain some bids against the dollar.

US Retail sales shown broad-based increased in June despite missing consensus of 0.4% vs 0.5%, but the positive highlight was a positive revision higher on the previous month's data to 0.4% compared to 0.1%. US Empire State Manufacturing Index surged to a 2 year high at 25.6 vs 17.2.

As usual, Yellen read word from word from the testimonial that was prepared earlier and released during 10pm. The key highlight was that she mentioned " The GDP decline appears to have resulted mostly from transitory factors, and a number of recent indicators of production and spending suggest that growth rebounded in the second quarter, but this bears close watching ", the direct impact was a negative sell off where GBP flirt again at key resistance above 1.7180 before tumbling back down as a false spikes. As the speaker exchange words with Yellen, the market eventually moved in favor of the Dollar. This saw USDSGD moving above 1.2440 after finding bids off 1.2420, slightly below our former key support of 1.2449. EURUSD eventually gave in and sold off below 1.3580 with USDJPY moving higher for the day. NZD was also flirting near its key resistance until a fundamental tweet in market indicated that there was a fall of 10.9% on the price of Whole Milk Powder which saw NZD heavily declined below 0.88 level.

The Aftermath of the event, saw the dollar strengthened broadly. With GBP remained as the biggest winner of the day after an improvement on its CPI Data while NZD declined the most. The Market is still watching closely which central banker is going to raise its rates the earliest, contemplating mainly between the US and UK for its strong recovery lately, and that should give us an indication of a new trend moving forward.GBP's strength will be tested on today's unemployment change.

CADSGD is now trading in a range of 1.1590-27 until either side gives way. As we remained broadly bearish below 1.1590 which was the former resistance. On a side note, we have a string of CAD event tonight which will move the market.

BOC Monetary Policy Report
BOC Rate Statement
BOC Overnight Rate
BOC Press Conference

For Yellen's testimonial, please refer to http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsev...n20140715a.htm


Key movers:
China GDP q/y - https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui...c36f&zw&atsh=1
China Industrial Production y/y - https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui...9dfb&zw&atsh=1
GBP Claimant Count Change - https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui...f108&zw&atsh=1
GBP Unemployment Rate - https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui...be3b&zw&atsh=1
US PPI m/m - https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui...02ef&zw&atsh=1
Fed Chair Yellen Testifies - https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui...c8c3&zw&atsh=1
BOC Press Conference - https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui...1b6a&zw&atsh=1

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