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  • #221
  • Jun 5, 2014 3:33am Jun 5, 2014 3:33am
Quoting skenobi
{quote} Agreed on all points. In any case, I TRY to make it a point NOT to knock someone else's way of making money as long as it's making money for SOMEbody out there, and no matter how illogical, flakey, or misguided they seem to me. Key word is "try". Beyond that, I will hold my peace.
I should have had that attitude when I first came here.

"If you speak the truth, have a foot in the stirrup."- Turkish Proverb
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #222
  • Jun 6, 2014 1:29pm Jun 6, 2014 1:29pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I used to believe that you can make a million in a year when I was younger. In fact, you can, just like you can be a millionaire in Vegas on any given night. But a point comes when you stop gambling and start treating your forex trading like any other business. You will stop trying to get rich and instead focus on good business practices. Anyone who begins to start treating their trading like a business, and use sound business practices will get that million I am sure. But it will not be in one year.

If your business is 100k then you might not get that 1 mio after one year.....but if your business is 5 mio then for sure if you know what you are doing you can make that 1 mio
fokyou forexfactory
  • #223
  • Jun 6, 2014 3:17pm Jun 6, 2014 3:17pm
Hello Pros,

Thanks for this discussion.
My background is mostly in agro futures but I have switched to FX recently. I would like to know some things about the players within these markets. In futures, you can see a lot of information in the Commitment Of Traders report. Is there any kind an analogous report available for currencies? If not all together in a report, is that data available in any form?

In futures there is an advantage in that a big chunk of the market is hedgers, who make what I call 'Non-Competitive Positions'. I like fighting against people who aren't trying to win. I imagine that such hedging is going on in FX too, so is there any way to see how much and who is doing it?

In general, how should I go about finding out the 'lay of the land'? The technical side I have pretty well covered and am developing more and more. But I think I need to know some more about the arena itself and who the players are. Any help with this is appreciated.
  • #224
  • Edited 8:58pm Jun 6, 2014 7:51pm | Edited 8:58pm
Hello Pros,

Thanks for this discussion.
My background is mostly in agro futures but I have switched to FX recently.
why migrate if things look goodback there , fx look like midget market now ...

I would like to know some things about the players within these markets.
all player the same ,moolah ...
In futures, you can see a lot of information in the Commitment Of Traders report
here http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/cftc-tff/main.html or can buy more comprehensive report too . same place .
Is there any kind an analogous report available for currencies? If not all together in a report, is that data available in any form?
no , fx is self fulfill holly grill , there is places you can buy report but it is what that person thing what will happen . you can buy eur report like COT by eur union . but for what ? cot is a wash in fx , means just lil or non .:nerd:
In futures there is an advantage in that a big chunk of the market is hedgers, who make what I call 'Non-Competitive Positions'.
fx even bigger , remember 4 T aday . 'Non-Competitive Positions'. ? you bet the guys next to you will not tolerate these word ( in trading )
I like fighting against people who aren't trying to win. WHUUUTTT ??? you are in the wrong market .
I imagine that such hedging is going on in FX too, so is there any way to see how much and who is doing it?
no , if there is , you will never has a chance to see it today
In general, how should I go about finding out the 'lay of the land'?
TA and FA . These is no mens land . not like any other investment vehicle that you have brace or wall to cut back or lay your head for a breath ,non here ( fx ).
if they said DEVIL has 2 horns THESE MARKET has 3 .
The technical side I have pretty well covered and am developing more and more.
you think ? it take 4 to 5 years to get to the cycle .
But I think I need to know some more about the arena itself and who the players are.
the player is all the people s here and the peoples there . feds , boe , boj , etc .
Any help with this is appreciated.
what ever you need you are in a right path here at FF

Have fun
  • #225
  • Jun 7, 2014 8:47am Jun 7, 2014 8:47am
Nice thread Ponzi Jr........ and thanks to Jacob and skenobi, this is a very good thread for education. My question is: on an average, how much money would normally be required to move the market by just 1 pip(point)? I have read from others that it takes 1mil,10mil, and even more. From your experinces as inst. traders what do u guys think? thank you.


res
  • #226
  • Jun 7, 2014 9:01am Jun 7, 2014 9:01am
In the spot fx market depth window during london daytime usually u can see an average of 200-500 millions (2-5000 standard lots) between 1 pip, but some of them are somehow fake orders and will be withdrawn by dealer's algos before executed

In the future market if i remember correctly i heard one time that in an average day are traded about 300.000 standard contracts in eur
  • #227
  • Jun 7, 2014 9:55am Jun 7, 2014 9:55am
Quoting Hodgires
Nice thread Ponzi Jr........ and thanks to Jacob and skenobi, this is a very good thread for education. My question is: on an average, how much money would normally be required to move the market by just 1 pip(point)? I have read from others that it takes 1mil,10mil, and even more. From your experinces as inst. traders what do u guys think? thank you. res
That's really difficult to answer. It depends on what time zone you're trading in, how active the market is, and more importantly what currency pair you're talking about.
Sometimes you can't budge the eurusd with 100 pips sometimes all it takes is 10 million. A pair like usdzar or usdmxn it may only take 20 bux to move it 100 pips.

I know a lot of you are looking for clues from volume but its just not something we discussed as dealers working at banks. I not saying it doesn't have value but it just wasn't relevant in our views on the market. I mentioned this before, its an incomplete picture, I knew of only the volume we did as a bank but not the other banks.

I will say if you have service providers that are telling you they get volume numbers I would ask them how they would know such a thing? For what we retail guys are trading, meaning the cash spot mkt (not NDF's) there are two platforms that Banks trade on (Funds, Corps and other institutions can not trade on these platforms that's why they call banks for liquidity and pricing) that is EBS and Reuters Dealing (maybe Bloomberg to a small degree). If you can get the total volume traded on those platforms then you would get the complete picture.
  • #228
  • Edited Jun 8, 2014 8:12pm Jun 7, 2014 9:27pm | Edited Jun 8, 2014 8:12pm
Quoting Hodgires
Nice thread Ponzi Jr........ and thanks to Jacob and skenobi, this is a very good thread for education. My question is: on an average, how much money would normally be required to move the market by just 1 pip(point)? I have read from others that it takes 1mil,10mil, and even more. From your experinces as inst. traders what do u guys think? thank you. res
Let's just say for argument's sake, that you're an institutional, that EURUSD is now 1.3760, that the intraday trend is rising, and you want to shake things up to try taking EURUSD even higher.

Assume also that there are significant clusters of sell limit orders (of unknown sizes circa 1.3770).

To make things interesting, let's say there is also a central bank (who shall remain nameless) with a "standing order" to sell (at any and all amounts) any bid above 1.3760 in order to keep EURUSD subdued.

Getting the picture already?

It's not so much a matter of how much capital you have to beat those orders i.e. to move the market by any X number of pips.

It's more a matter of whether or not you have ENOUGH capital to beat those orders. 2 different concepts.

On casual observation, every time a level is broken, it's mostly due to a combination of..
1. absence of, or declining, limit order clusters, AND/OR
2. presence of, or increasing, stop order clusters

You can probably think of other reasons, but in the broad strokes, I think the above 2 reasons are the most basic.

Quoting JacobFordFX
there are two platforms that Banks trade on (Funds, Corps and other institutions can not trade on these platforms that's why they call banks for liquidity and pricing) that is EBS and Reuters Dealing (maybe Bloomberg to a small degree). If you can get the total volume traded on those platforms then you would get the complete picture.
EBS, RDS, and Bloomberg data are definitely good proxies (if you can get them) and much more representative of market conditions than any data that can be provided by any ONE SINGLE retail broker. But even those would not give you the complete picture. A very significant portion of business is also done via voice interdealer brokers, and you can never get those deals in any publicly-available data.

Quoting JacobFordFX
I know a lot of you are looking for clues from volume but its just not something we discussed as dealers working at banks. I not saying it doesn't have value but it just wasn't relevant in our views on the market. I mentioned this before, its an incomplete picture, I knew of only the volume we did as a bank but not the other banks.
AGREED!

To any and all of you "volume"-based indicator junkies, if you're looking for posts like these to justify your existence by answering trick questions that supposedly validates the "usefulness" of volume data, you're barkin' up the wrong tree.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
  • #229
  • Edited 11:32pm Jun 7, 2014 10:15pm | Edited 11:32pm
[quote=stewrigh;7512888]{quote} I always wondered about volume there are a couple of threads on FF where they proclaim to use volume for trading such as Volume Spread Analysis and they swear by it - Neither of my brokers even offer it and when I have asked they tell me it's not available.

http://www.volumespreadanalysis.com/Tom%20Williams.asp

http://tradeguider.com
http://www.tradeguider.com/tools.asp

http://www.mtpredictor.com/vsa

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/cftc-tff/main.html
Gregory D. Alexandr
  • #230
  • Jun 8, 2014 12:22am Jun 8, 2014 12:22am
[quote=galexandr;7520481]
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} I always wondered about volume there are a couple of threads on FF where they proclaim to use volume for trading such as Volume Spread Analysis and they swear by it - Neither of my brokers even offer it and when I have asked they tell me it's not available. http://www.volumespreadanalysis.com/Tom%20Williams.asp http://tradeguider.com http://www.tradeguider.com/tools.asp http://www.mtpredictor.com/vsa http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/cftc-tff/main.html
Not sure why you posted those links Greg, but thanks anyway - I have already done the research and I accept that some ppl use VSA, it's just not for me.
  • #231
  • Jun 8, 2014 7:37am Jun 8, 2014 7:37am
I have a question about trading when news is released.

say RBA announce rate increase and AUDUSD spike up. I presume institutional traders buy(long) AUDUSD that causes the spike. Question is who is the counter party in that trade? Who would want to short AUDUSD? it can't be retail traders since we don't make much difference. So it must able another institutional trader wants to go opposite of the news event and why is that?
  • #232
  • Jun 8, 2014 9:30am Jun 8, 2014 9:30am
Quoting reddevil
I have a question about trading when news is released. say RBA announce rate increase and AUDUSD spike up. I presume institutional traders buy(long) AUDUSD that causes the spike. Question is who is the counter party in that trade? Who would want to short AUDUSD? it can't be retail traders since we don't make much difference. So it must able another institutional trader wants to go opposite of the news event and why is that?
I'm not an expert, still learning, but on a basic level, there will be people who need their AUD to be traded for USD independent of trading activity. Options aren't very heavily traded in fx from what I understand but options can force a counterparty to exist as well.

I'm sure someone else can explain further/better.

EDIT: Also, great educational thread with interesting perspectives.
  • #233
  • Jun 8, 2014 9:51am Jun 8, 2014 9:51am
Quoting reddevil
I have a question about trading when news is released. say RBA announce rate increase and AUDUSD spike up. I presume institutional traders buy(long) AUDUSD that causes the spike. Question is who is the counter party in that trade? Who would want to short AUDUSD? it can't be retail traders since we don't make much difference. So it must able another institutional trader wants to go opposite of the news event and why is that?
I wouldn't say it was the overwhelming number of buyers in the market as much as it is the fact that dealers are not showing any offers in the market. Any dealer that knows what they're doing would not show an offer unless a customer comes in looking for a price. That why you see post-news spikes and/or abrupt sell-offs. So it's the lack of any liquidity (offers in this case) and a few desperate buyers that will take any offer they can get.

I know I would not do the market any favors when showing bids or offers in that type market unless I had a customer that needed a price and then I had to be involved.
  • #234
  • Jun 8, 2014 11:50am Jun 8, 2014 11:50am
true?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-s...182957554.html

"...If you're not coming from one of the top funds, CFA, Ivy education, and if you haven't run $500 million you're not getting the job."

"....they're real people and it's real pain...."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #235
  • Jun 8, 2014 6:25pm Jun 8, 2014 6:25pm
Quoting The Fool
true? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-s...182957554.html "...If you're not coming from one of the top funds, CFA, Ivy education, and if you haven't run $500 million you're not getting the job." "....they're real people and it's real pain...."
I used to be in a position to hire. Times like these, I'd scale back on new hires and poach experienced ones if I absolutely had to. I might even lend out junior traders to the sales desks to pick up customer calls for experience (which is something I've done before in my rookie days). Not a bad time for these guys to learn a few more ancillary skills.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
  • #236
  • Jun 9, 2014 1:06am Jun 9, 2014 1:06am
Quoting skenobi
{quote} I used to be in a position to hire. Times like these, I'd scale back on new hires and poach experienced ones if I absolutely had to. I might even lend out junior traders to the sales desks to pick up customer calls for experience (which is something I've done before in my rookie days). Not a bad time for these guys to learn a few more ancillary skills.
Why would they prefer to get hired rather than to have a go on their own? What makes it so different to be a trader in a firm that they cannot use that experience "to trade from home"
  • #237
  • Edited 1:38am Jun 9, 2014 1:17am | Edited 1:38am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Why would they prefer to get hired rather than to have a go on their own?
Because they're broke and they can't trade worth a shit? Why are there so many crooks in trading? Same answer. Read all about them here:

http://www.cftc.gov/LawRegulation/En...ions/index.htm
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #238
  • Jun 9, 2014 1:42am Jun 9, 2014 1:42am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Because they're broke and they can't trade worth a shit? Why are there so many crooks in trading? Same answer. Read all about them here: http://www.cftc.gov/LawRegulation/En...ions/index.htm
Yes, of course. Thanks.
It's all about sales.. lots of "sales" and very little "trading"
Retail is all about making money from the markets; "institutional" is all about "selling it" to them.
  • #239
  • Jun 9, 2014 2:20am Jun 9, 2014 2:20am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Why would they prefer to get hired rather than to have a go on their own? What makes it so different to be a trader in a firm that they cannot use that experience "to trade from home"
Because these young punks seem to think The Life of a bank trader is da shiznit. How little they know...
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
  • #240
  • Jun 9, 2014 2:53am Jun 9, 2014 2:53am
Well nice to hear from the sell-sides point

Im more from the buy side a HF.

Alot of money though still stems from the IR space ie bonds, CB and stuff as you can put on size.

Still remember convert arb is like 40% of our books. Merger arb another 20% and stat arb is like 40%. That was before 08 killed the cb space before it u-turned

Well at least in my firm, there are no discretionary trades. Only following the models. So it was always looking out for new trade ideas ie talking to banks, research papers, finding out from fund of funds what competitors are doing..blal blal bla.. backtest and forward test, try 5-10m in that new strategy and let it run a few months... bla bla bla.. if its good, pile on more else cut it..

I guess in banks there are no capital as you only look at the VaR numbers and assign dollar risk to traders.

in a fund it is more like the retail space where you need to know how much capital you ascribe to each strategy and how much are your expected returns and risk. But even in a fund it is exceptionally more hard to make money..paying brokerage, borrows, financing..take that all away,, makes it much easier.
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