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A delicate secret

  • #341
  • Jun 6, 2014 10:05am Jun 6, 2014 10:05am
Quoting Kruspe
{quote} Great job Carl, would be possible to attach a couple screenshots ?
Here is the EURUSD 1-min.
Sorry, only one. I'm at work, so i'm posting this on the down-low...

Carl
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-1m-exits.jpg Size: 632 KB
  • #342
  • Jun 6, 2014 10:08am Jun 6, 2014 10:08am
Quoting Madmoney
{quote} Regardless of the news on USD my target was hit on my GBPUSD short earlier. I'm sure I'm doing it differently from other people as my screen is messy (5 different types of indies), but it has the same concept. Hopefully from this I can create a standalone indicator like Old Dog.
I think that is great if we are doing it differently, as long as it works.

You are probably using the info from EURUSDD other thread on similarity?

I'm trying to get my head around using the multiple timeframe strategy.
It does seem to work on all timeframes.

I like the lower timeframes because, you probably won't have to wait long for an exit target.

I saw a USDCAD target shortly after the news (1-min chart). Hit it just a few minutes later. Very cool.

Carl
  • #343
  • Jun 6, 2014 10:12am Jun 6, 2014 10:12am
I think I've got it. Simple idea but nothing new. I've seen this somewhere before. Maybe Tsd?

However I've got a question. Let's say we're on the h4, are we looking for entries ontthe smaller time frames? 15m let's say? Also how would you position your stops? Maybe I've missed something
  • #344
  • Edited 10:23am Jun 6, 2014 10:16am | Edited 10:23am
Quoting crodzilla
{quote} Here is the EURUSD 1-min. Sorry, only one. I'm at work, so i'm posting this on the down-low... Carl {image}
Same targets brother however I'm looking on a larger scale. With your post everyone should know whats going on here . (y)
  • #345
  • Jun 6, 2014 10:19am Jun 6, 2014 10:19am
Quoting lakhan
{quote} Same entries brother however I'm looking on a larger scale. With your post everyone should know whats going on here . (y)
I didn't quite spell it out.
Should I delete it?

Carl
  • #346
  • Jun 6, 2014 10:32am Jun 6, 2014 10:32am
Quoting lakhan
Also how would you position your stops? Maybe I've missed something
Umm, why do you need stops? You know where price is going... eventually.
  • #347
  • Jun 6, 2014 10:32am Jun 6, 2014 10:32am
Quoting lakhan
Also how would you position your stops? Maybe I've missed something
That would be my question too.

Given that any DD can be managed by a correct MM, but somewhere must be a limit for considering the trade a "loss".

EURUSD informed us that his "p" is 87%, so that mean that in 13% of the trades he should consider the loss and close.

So where do consider the point of "no way back" ?
  • #348
  • Jun 6, 2014 10:33am Jun 6, 2014 10:33am
Quoting crodzilla
{quote} Umm, why do you need stops? You know where price is going... eventually.
So you would say that it happens in 100% of times ?

Are there statistics about the highest DD to be ready to face ?
  • #349
  • Jun 6, 2014 10:35am Jun 6, 2014 10:35am
Quoting Whenever
{quote} That would be my question too. Given that any DD can be managed by a correct MM, but somewhere must be a limit for considering the trade a "loss". EURUSD informed us that his "p" is 87%, so that mean that in 13% of the trades he should consider the loss and close. So where do consider the point of "no way back" ?
That is why I think it is essential that all timeframes are accounted for.

If you have a long trade for a target for 20 pips, but there is a short target underneath your long 80 pips away on a higher timeframe, are you going to take that trade? Are you going to place a stop at 100 pips?

Carl
  • #350
  • Jun 6, 2014 10:36am Jun 6, 2014 10:36am
Quoting crodzilla
You can give 10 people the "holy grail", 8 of them will lose money using it. Carl
And I re-iterate...
  • #351
  • Jun 6, 2014 10:38am Jun 6, 2014 10:38am
Quoting Whenever
{quote} That would be my question too. Given that any DD can be managed by a correct MM, but somewhere must be a limit for considering the trade a "loss". EURUSD informed us that his "p" is 87%, so that mean that in 13% of the trades he should consider the loss and close. So where do consider the point of "no way back" ?
I have discovered a way to get approximately an accurate entry (no huge drawdowns needed), but that is down to a completely different method (scalping).

It IS possible to predict the entry accurately, by using fibonacci numbers and price exhaustion/over extension and these are simple tools.

Also similarity/dis-similarity (HINT)
  • #352
  • Jun 6, 2014 10:39am Jun 6, 2014 10:39am
Well some of you guys (and maybe gals) have done better than me. I couldn't figure out anything with the Standard Deviation indi. Thought I'd got a light bulb moment when I experimented with envelopes but alas not. I think the previous post regarding maximum DD is a valid point.
  • #353
  • Jun 6, 2014 10:40am Jun 6, 2014 10:40am
Quoting crodzilla
{quote} That is why I think it is essential that all timeframes are accounted for. If you have a long trade for a target for 20 pips, but there is a short target underneath your long 80 pips away on a higher timeframe, are you going to take that trade? Are you going to place a stop at 100 pips? Carl
Very interesting point of view !
Thanks a lot.
Food for Thoughts.

If I well understand your Thinking: are we talking about a kind of "hedging", due mostly to the different "Reality" of different, but cooperating, Universes (TF) ?

I must read again what I wrote... I hope it may sound more or less "logical"....
  • #354
  • Jun 6, 2014 10:40am Jun 6, 2014 10:40am
Quoting Whenever
{quote} That would be my question too. Given that any DD can be managed by a correct MM, but somewhere must be a limit for considering the trade a "loss". EURUSD informed us that his "p" is 87%, so that mean that in 13% of the trades he should consider the loss and close. So where do consider the point of "no way back" ?
Agree, i had the same question.
I have spotted a few (not many) runaway DD's in strong trends, it came back to the target after 5 months... long after the signal bar had disapeared from my screen.
There must be a point where one should cut his/her loss. But that is something i'm goiing to test.
Persistence will get it. Consistency will keep it.
  • #355
  • Jun 6, 2014 10:44am Jun 6, 2014 10:44am
Quoting crodzilla
{quote} Umm, why do you need stops? You know where price is going... eventually.
Works on the smaller time frames.. you say eventually. Well if we look on a daily or weekly it's a different story. Margin comes to mind. I'm sure there is a way of minimising risk with cleaner entries.
Edit: looking at gbpjpy for example. Your best bets would be the consolidation zones. However on other charts their harder to see. ( well to me that is ?
  • #356
  • Jun 6, 2014 10:51am Jun 6, 2014 10:51am
Scaling in could be an option to get a better entry.
Persistence will get it. Consistency will keep it.
  • #357
  • Jun 6, 2014 10:52am Jun 6, 2014 10:52am
Quoting Chake
{quote} Agree, i had the same question. I have spotted a few (not many) runaway DD's in strong trends, it came back to the target after 5 months... long after the signal bar had disapeared from my screen. There must be a point where one should cut his/her loss. But that is something i'm goiing to test.
Wasn't old dog saying that a few posts back? Price may come back off the screen. I don't think that's what we're looking for. . Then again. I could sell all the tops of eu until eventually I hit my target 7 years down the road.
  • #358
  • Jun 6, 2014 10:55am Jun 6, 2014 10:55am
Quoting lakhan
{quote} Works on the smaller time frames.. you say eventually. Well if we look on a daily or weekly it's a different story. Margin comes to mind. I'm sure there is a way of minimising risk with cleaner entries. Edit: looking at gbpjpy for example. Your best bets would be the consolidation zones. However on other charts their harder to see. ( well to me that is ?
I definitely would not use a target on a daily or weekly... however, a bias short or long is an interesting idea that just popped into my head...

So, if you can list all open targets on all the timeframes... maybe you can come up with a directional BIAS based on ALL timeframes???
Kind of like we have for "Fibonacci" lines... or whatever. Or a heatmap?


Carl
  • #359
  • Jun 6, 2014 11:00am Jun 6, 2014 11:00am
Carl - you always did have a clever mindset as I remember back in the old days on Alorente thread.
  • #360
  • Jun 6, 2014 11:02am Jun 6, 2014 11:02am
Quoting handy148
Carl - you always did have a clever mindset as I remember back in the old days on Alorente thread.
Thanks handy. That is my problem... so many ideas, so little time.

Carl
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