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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #14,781
  • Jun 6, 2014 2:26am Jun 6, 2014 2:26am
Gold daily TF

EW

keep in mind: Gold tends to have extended wave 5's
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  • #14,782
  • Jun 6, 2014 2:29am Jun 6, 2014 2:29am
EU 10min TF

S/R levels (manually drawn)
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  • #14,783
  • Jun 6, 2014 2:30am Jun 6, 2014 2:30am
EU daily TF EW

wave 1 down may be finished
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  • #14,784
  • Jun 6, 2014 2:33am Jun 6, 2014 2:33am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} covered the 3550 long position @ 3664 for +114 covered the 3565 long position @ 3664 for +99 fully short again

do again offset 30% of my long time shorts with a long position here @ 3645
  • #14,785
  • Jun 6, 2014 2:40am Jun 6, 2014 2:40am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} do again offset 30% of my long time shorts with a long position here @ 3645
will load more towards the 3588 to 3635 distribution zone

PO long
@ 3637
@ 3633
@ 3618
@ 3602
@ 3590

when all get triggered, I am fully neutral

If further down, I will go eventually net long
  • #14,786
  • Jun 6, 2014 2:44am Jun 6, 2014 2:44am
Good Morning friend,

Good to see the Gold analysis.

Today also is an important day NFP, lets see how it pans out. As per my understanding, we can't repeat last months strong number and if we get an average number, we might see some weakness in the US Dollar overall, which can push the Gold a bit up as well.

Wish you all the very best. Keep posting.
  • #14,787
  • Jun 6, 2014 2:56am Jun 6, 2014 2:56am
will be 'watching the bulls from the barrier' all the morning ... I think till NY open we will not have clear entries ...

Mainly looking for shorting USDCHF around 0.8945 and adding longs EU around 1.3605
  • #14,788
  • Jun 6, 2014 4:22am Jun 6, 2014 4:22am
well, that is interesting


http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...#axzz33pvdfw9Z

(Video) U.S. Trade Deficit Jumps 7% -- Is That Bullish or Bearish?
Historically, there has been a suprising correlation between stocks and trade deficit
  • #14,789
  • Jun 6, 2014 4:27am Jun 6, 2014 4:27am
EU

short term volume distributions

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  • #14,790
  • Jun 6, 2014 4:27am Jun 6, 2014 4:27am
Quoting infinitus
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post7514974 @ 3565 (just bought) (offsetting 30% of the shorts) @ 3550 @ 3546 @ 3540 @ 3535 @ 3531 when we get extended move, I will offset further shorts (when all got triggered, I am net balanced) @ 3521 @ 3510 @ 3502 @ 3592 @ 3582 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX covered @ 3653: the 3510 for +143 the 3521 for + 132 the 3531 for +122 the 3535 for +118 the 3540 for +113 the 3546 for +107 that leaves me 40% net short with my long term position some may...
  • #14,791
  • Jun 6, 2014 4:29am Jun 6, 2014 4:29am
http://www.roboforex.com/analytics/f...ave1-06062014/

Dimitris wave counts
  • #14,792
  • Jun 6, 2014 5:22am Jun 6, 2014 5:22am
Tell it like it is:

"Stress Test" Reviewed: Tim Geithner Is "A Grifter, A Petty Con Artist"

snipset:

Geithner is at heart a grifter, a petty con artist with the right manners and breeding to lie at the top echelons of American finance at a moment when the government and financial services industry needed someone to be the face of their multi-trillion dollar three card monte. He’s going to make his money, now that he’s done living his life of fantastic power after his upbringing of remarkable mysterious privilege. After reading this book and documenting lie after lie after lie, I’m convinced that there’s more here than just a self-serving corrupt official. There’s an entire culture, of figures at Treasury, the Federal Reserve, in the entire Democratic Party elite structure, and in the world of journalism, a culture in which Geithner is seen as some sort of role model.


- From Matt Stoller’s fantastic article published yesterday, The Con-Artist Wing of the Democratic Party


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...tty-con-artist
  • #14,793
  • Jun 6, 2014 5:24am Jun 6, 2014 5:24am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...payroll-number

Previewing Tomorrow's Payroll Number

means todays numbers, since the article was published yesterday

With a 9 standard deviation range between the highest and lowest excuse for a forecast from the 81 "qualified" economists on Bloomberg's survey, there is plenty of room for noise to dominate signal with tomorrow's payrolls data
  • #14,794
  • Jun 6, 2014 5:30am Jun 6, 2014 5:30am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} Yes, thanks for the reply, it all makes sense to me and definitely see it happening. I still consider myself as a novice in trading, not long before I started trading full-time now. In my initial days, there were many nice people who helped me a lot, one very nice person Fx-Ray helped me a lot with my learning and understanding of how things work. Don't know why he left FF for some reason. I still consider myself in my learning phase. There is so much and so very interesting things to learn and I come across one everyday. About my Gold,...
I would say as investment Gold might be bad thing to buy. Margin gold is out of question its defenetly bad buy but even physical could be too early. If you are keeping physical for 5 years then yes ok that will work but expecting any profits sooner might be problem. Paper longs add nothing to gold price, as FED can print way more than those longs distribute them to JP or GS and they can dump it down on strong supply creation. Physical demand is also yet not important enough becouse west still has enough gold in banks to deliver all extensive demand in China and India and deliver it to them. Sure warehouses are getting smaller but if you look on UK central bank gold reserves (-1300 tons that was dumped and is still counting on their balance sheet, but the rest should be there), there is still enough gold to keep down demand in east for year or two and with naked paper shorts keep dumping down gold price maybe to 1k or lower. However if there is liquidity crisis in next 2 years you could be well positioned with some gold, but again as crisis will be fought trough money printing they can still do it the same as in 2008-14 and keep print and dump physical addtional to keep gold price down trough crisis. There is limit to this game, and that is drained gold reserves in western banks.


Took GA short:
http://prntscr.com/3q5q6b

Quote
Today also is an important day NFP, lets see how it pans out. As per my understanding, we can't repeat last months strong number and if we get an average number, we might see some weakness in the US Dollar overall, which can push the Gold a bit up as well.

If you have not noticed 90% of USA news are manipulated and shorted after spike if news are bullish. They dump it down almost every time, so news matter not, especially not USA ones, at least for 2014 so far.
  • #14,795
  • Jun 6, 2014 5:47am Jun 6, 2014 5:47am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...isery-33-years

Quite scary, they will need more QE so prices will go even worse. Makes you wonder how will BOJ present next QE as good cure for economy. Maybe they will try to present next QE as deflationary or something. But in the end if central bank would present to people options that they are facing i think most would still pick QE. Option 1: QE (high inflation), option 2: bond default (economy kaput).
  • #14,796
  • Jun 6, 2014 6:05am Jun 6, 2014 6:05am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} I would say as investment Gold might be bad thing to buy. Margin gold is out of question its defenetly bad buy but even physical could be too early. If you are keeping physical for 5 years then yes ok that will work but expecting any profits sooner might be problem. Paper longs add nothing to gold price, as FED can print way more than those longs distribute them to JP or GS and they can dump it down on strong supply creation. Physical demand is also yet not important enough becouse west still has enough gold in banks to deliver all extensive...

Surely, I do not intent to keep my gold longs for very long but definitely thank you for the input.

Also you are true about US news spike. I usually book in during or soon after the news, depending on which currency pair I am playing with. I have some longs for UJ from 101.60 levels which I plan to off-load today during the news if I get to my price which is near 102.90 or close. Let see where we go today.

GL to you.
  • #14,797
  • Jun 6, 2014 6:33am Jun 6, 2014 6:33am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} will load more towards the 3588 to 3635 distribution zone PO long @ 3637 @ 3633 @ 3618 @ 3602 @ 3590 when all get triggered, I am fully neutral If further down, I will go eventually net long

closed long positions from 3637 and 3633 @ 3646
  • #14,798
  • Jun 6, 2014 6:36am Jun 6, 2014 6:36am
PO long

@ 3611
@ 3618
@ 3602
@ 3590

when all get triggered, I am fully neutral
If further down, I will go eventually net long
  • #14,799
  • Jun 6, 2014 7:23am Jun 6, 2014 7:23am
Most likely NFP will be bearish as expected numbers are high, but not safe enough to trade ahead.
  • #14,800
  • Jun 6, 2014 7:32am Jun 6, 2014 7:32am
bought some @ 3630
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