The Club! | Page 738 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

Attachments: The Club!
Exit Attachments

The Club!

  • #14,741
  • Jun 5, 2014 7:49am Jun 5, 2014 7:49am
Quoting infinitus
will the count work? soon to be decision time {image}
or is it this one:

since Draghi seems to have eased overall more than expected......

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_4 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 45 KB
  • #14,742
  • Jun 5, 2014 7:52am Jun 5, 2014 7:52am
http://www.fxstreet.com/education/tr...os/2014/06/03/
  • #14,743
  • Jun 5, 2014 7:54am Jun 5, 2014 7:54am
Did someone managed to get the Gold?


LOL

this morning I advised my father to buy some Gold for around 2970 Euro per 100gr.

Let us see if he will be happy in the next days....
  • #14,744
  • Jun 5, 2014 8:02am Jun 5, 2014 8:02am
Manage to enter long EU @1.35207, (C flat down) ... lets see if we get to 1.37474-1.38053 ... so will unload some longs

Meanwhile ... scalping on USDCHF and EURCAD ... not all will be swing trades ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-d1-x-trade-brokers.png Size: 93 KB
  • #14,745
  • Jun 5, 2014 8:05am Jun 5, 2014 8:05am
Infinitus where did that gold rally come from? By the way do you know perhaps where one could get good Comex volume charts, like the ones seen on Zerohedge. I am thinking i would need to register some sort of account at futures broker isnt it?

On EU we are now officially at some sort of stopping volume. Doesnt matter for me i am not loading any longs here. Gona be ready for EURAUD shorts.
  • #14,746
  • Jun 5, 2014 8:18am Jun 5, 2014 8:18am
Quoting janpec1000
Infinitus where did that gold rally come from? By the way do you know perhaps where one could get good Comex volume charts, like the ones seen on Zerohedge. I am thinking i would need to register some sort of account at futures broker isnt it? On EU we are now officially at some sort of stopping volume. Doesnt matter for me i am not loading any longs here. Gona be ready for EURAUD shorts.
Regarding Comex Volume charts: no idea at the moment

Regarding Gold:

a) Elliott wave pointed to the end of a wave D of a triangle. So now we are up in wave E of the triangle (maybe we get a last small leg down in wave D to the 1220 vicinity (who knows)

b) Draghis measures are seen as inflationary


Regarding EU:

very difficult to see where we are really. What we need would be a healthy retrace in order to sort out some near term options. With the deep run down today my count with the ending diagonal now looks a bit strange.

from statistical reasoning chances are good to see some retracement now. But on my 4h volume profile chart we had temporarily a sigma 6 event, meaning that chance is high that we might see a continuation of down move in the bigger scheme.
  • #14,747
  • Jun 5, 2014 8:23am Jun 5, 2014 8:23am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} That played out very nicely :-) at least so far I do not know what you mean by "unlocking". Sorry no native English speaker here I do the following: have a bigger long term short position with average entry around 3970 from time to time I play the retracements with additional long positions (so I am long and short at the same time, so I do offset some risk temporarily). When appropriate, I then sell again the long positions..... At 3630-3640 I once again was 100% full short. Now I go long with some positions, leaving me net-short...

the above red ones all got triggered

3502, sadly, was missed by a pip

the 3556 and 3587 are now the levels we have to watch first on the upper side
  • #14,748
  • Jun 5, 2014 8:26am Jun 5, 2014 8:26am
EU volume profiles

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mm.jpg Size: 571 KB
  • #14,749
  • Jun 5, 2014 8:35am Jun 5, 2014 8:35am
EU


Murrey math levels and direction (VWAP assisted)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mm.jpg Size: 410 KB
  • #14,750
  • Jun 5, 2014 8:37am Jun 5, 2014 8:37am
GA ready for tanking, waiting for kick of supply on lower tfs. 1.800 might be hard to break easily, but once we are lower it should be low risk short.
  • #14,751
  • Jun 5, 2014 8:38am Jun 5, 2014 8:38am
EU

statistics and virgin POC's

two virging POC's were hit (red marked)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mm.jpg Size: 209 KB
  • #14,752
  • Jun 5, 2014 8:42am Jun 5, 2014 8:42am
watch now 3579


when this one is taken out, the move down seems to be (at least temorarily) done
  • #14,753
  • Jun 5, 2014 8:47am Jun 5, 2014 8:47am
Quoting infinitus
watch now 3579 when this one is taken out, the move down seems to be (at least temorarily) done
Actually it doesnt even matter if its taken out soon. If H1 closes as it is its already bullish signal, and whole down tumble will be completly corrected on up side in next 2 days. Demand kick was too strong, no matter if its profit taking or real demand coming in it is unlikely now to drop more. I will wait for longs above 1.365.

Bitcoin rallying on and after ECB announcemnet . Coincidence? Maybe not. (Third test of wedge, strong bull volume should push it trough now, target 1: 710.
  • #14,754
  • Jun 5, 2014 9:03am Jun 5, 2014 9:03am
Quoting janpec1000
GA ready for tanking, waiting for kick of supply on lower tfs. 1.800 might be hard to break easily, but once we are lower it should be low risk short.
GA shorts off the table for now, kick of demand from GBP strenght. Lets see what tomorrow does.
  • #14,755
  • Jun 5, 2014 9:28am Jun 5, 2014 9:28am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Actually it doesnt even matter if its taken out soon. If H1 closes as it is its already bullish signal, and whole down tumble will be completly corrected on up side in next 2 days. Demand kick was too strong, no matter if its profit taking or real demand coming in it is unlikely now to drop more. I will wait for longs above 1.365. Bitcoin rallying on and after ECB announcemnet . Coincidence? Maybe not. (Third test of wedge, strong bull volume should push it trough now, target 1: 710.
LOL done already. Didnt except such fast move but afterall expected move. We are gona see 1.38 before Draghi is gona look on EU exchange rate again heh.

That 10 trillion of swaps on DB balance sheet its gona get impacted for sure once we start breaking higher. 5% of exchange rate change on 10 trillion is not little money, especially not when you are in liquidity problems.
  • #14,756
  • Jun 5, 2014 9:57am Jun 5, 2014 9:57am
GBPCHF screams for break lower:
http://prntscr.com/3pwjzu
H4 close on 1.50 pressure is bearish, shorts in between area of 1.50-1.507. It might be choppy due to demand from GBP overall.
  • #14,757
  • Jun 5, 2014 9:58am Jun 5, 2014 9:58am
Quoting rbetancor
Manage to enter long EU @1.35207, (C flat down) ... lets see if we get to 1.37474-1.38053 ... so will unload some longs Meanwhile ... scalping on USDCHF and EURCAD ... not all will be swing trades ... {image}
  • #14,758
  • Jun 5, 2014 10:02am Jun 5, 2014 10:02am
Love days like today ...
  • #14,759
  • Jun 5, 2014 10:04am Jun 5, 2014 10:04am
Quoting rbetancor
{quote}
Good trade, i can see how 1.3538 could play good long.
  • #14,760
  • Jun 5, 2014 12:26pm Jun 5, 2014 12:26pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} That played out very nicely :-) at least so far I do not know what you mean by "unlocking". Sorry no native English speaker here I do the following: have a bigger long term short position with average entry around 3970 from time to time I play the retracements with additional long positions (so I am long and short at the same time, so I do offset some risk temporarily). When appropriate, I then sell again the long positions..... At 3630-3640 I once again was 100% full short. Now I go long with some positions, leaving me net-short...
That was spot on mate! Well done, you advice did help me unloading my shorts, although I did do a bit early around 1.3550 to be on the safer side. Again went long from 1.3528 which I will off load around 1.3670 area.

I really like your system of offsetting positions, will definitely try to understand it more and try my hands on it as well. Long-term are you still bearish on EU, I remember you telling me it should be around 1.3300 and then 1.2700, if I remember it correct. Do you keep a time-frame in mind as well.

It was a really busy but nice day today. Hope we have more days like this. I am long on Gold as well but all underwater at the minute, will hold-on to them.

Once again, very well analysis, good job!!
7 traders viewing now