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Looking for Real Trading Method

  • #81
  • Jun 4, 2014 9:32pm Jun 4, 2014 9:32pm
Quoting Chicky
So far we have identified two key elements of a real or good trading method: 1. The skills and mindset of a trader 2. Resolving the Stoploss issue Any comments on these two will be highly appreciated. The third element that I would like to table is how to reduce Idle Capacity of an account margin. By that I mean, how to maximize use of available idle balance in our account. For example, if we risk 1% of our account for a possible 3% return. This issue can be resolved by opening a heavy position with a very tight SL of let's say 7 pips (risking 1%)...
Hi chicky
I already presented very logical SL
No hard SL placed (advantage you are not going to get stopped out on spikes)
Decide before what amount $$ you are willing to risk (call it gambling or whatever makes no difference)
Say for example $200
How many pips that covers say 1$ a pip gives you 200 pips.
Great find good set up and either buy or sell and as long as your 200 is not reached trade is valid.
I have been trading like this for 6months successfully 58% account gain

As far as Gambling argument

When gambling you are in 100% either win or lose
In trading you have a choice to get out hence you have control over your losses and gains therefore gambling comparison is nullified.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #82
  • Jun 4, 2014 9:55pm Jun 4, 2014 9:55pm
Quoting Chicky
So far we have identified two key elements of a real or good trading method: 1. The skills and mindset of a trader 2. Resolving the Stoploss issue Any comments on these two will be highly appreciated. The third element that I would like to table is how to reduce Idle Capacity of an account margin. By that I mean, how to maximize use of available idle balance in our account. For example, if we risk 1% of our account for a possible 3% return. This issue can be resolved by opening a heavy position with a very tight SL of let's say 7 pips (risking 1%)...
This is an example of Idle Capacity. I currently have 7 trades spread over 4 pairs. Unrealized profit/drawdown ranges from -0.1% to +0.1% for the past few days.
Attached Image
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #83
  • Jun 4, 2014 10:04pm Jun 4, 2014 10:04pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi chicky I already presented very logical SL No hard SL placed (advantage you are not going to get stopped out on spikes) Decide before what amount $$ you are willing to risk (call it gambling or whatever makes no difference) Say for example $200 How many pips that covers say 1$ a pip gives you 200 pips. Great find good set up and either buy or sell and as long as your 200 is not reached trade is valid. I have been trading like this for 6months successfully 58% account gain As far as Gambling argument When gambling you are in 100% either...
What you are doing is risk management. A good way of managing an account.

Gambling is a very deep art. You can realize partial profits, increase or decrease your position size, hedge, put an sl, set a trailing stop, take profit, etc. also in gambling ................... many types of it................................................... One such type is forex trading.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #84
  • Jun 4, 2014 10:14pm Jun 4, 2014 10:14pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} What you are doing is risk management. A good way of managing an account. Gambling is a very deep art. You can realize partial profits, increase or decrease your position size, hedge, put an sl, set a trailing stop, take profit, etc. also in gambling ................... many types of it................................................... One such type is forex trading.
I am an EX Gambler
Gambled Sports for 5years
Won thousands lost thousands in the end went cold Turkey.
Trading is not gambling.Trust me I know the difference.

Trading is no different then opening a business.
#1 reason businesses fail Incompetence
http://www.statisticbrain.com/startu...e-by-industry/

This is why trading is challenging because most assume its simple manner of buy or sell.They never factor competence!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #85
  • Jun 4, 2014 10:18pm Jun 4, 2014 10:18pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I am an EX Gambler Gambled Sports for 5years Won thousands lost thousands in the end went cold Turkey. Trading is not gambling.Trust me I know the difference.
Maybe, but not for me. You risk, look for reward, its gambling.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #86
  • Edited 10:39pm Jun 4, 2014 10:22pm | Edited 10:39pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Maybe, but not for me. You risk, look for reward, its gambling.
Would you say someone who wants to open a business as "you are a gambler?"
Just as much risk involve as trading

Plumber
Eletrician
Lawyer
Theropist
Restarantour
List goes on and on
All risk to start up their businesses but I would not categorize that as gambling.
To me Risk does not Equal Gambling

Common theme with business start ups is owner has a business plan
How many here have Trading plan

There is also lot of myth about trading
95% losers are false.True number is about 70% and 30% successful which is pretty much align with most industries.
If one survives 1st 2years without quitting and invests on competence your odds dramatically increases to be successful.

Common theme among successful traders (Market Wizards books)
They are persistent to excel
Put in homework going over charts daily
Workable Trading Plan
Invested on self improvement courses books etc
Patient,disciplined, level headed

I bet most FX losers done very little of above which brings back to incompetence being #1 failure with trading and businesses at large.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #87
  • Jun 4, 2014 10:34pm Jun 4, 2014 10:34pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Would you say someone who wants to open a business as "you are a gambler?" Just as much risk involve as trading Plumber Eletrician Lawyer Theropist Restarantour List goes on and on All risk to start up their businesses but I would not categorize that as gambling. To me Risk does not Equal Gambling Common theme with business start ups is owner has a business plan How many here have Trading plan
You can either look at a business as gamble or a gamble as a business.
Many look at forex trading as a business
To me, anything with uncertain outcome is a gamble. My business is definitely a gamble. I invest, pay rent, stake merchandise and wait for customers. It has no certain outcome. It is gamble.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #88
  • Jun 4, 2014 10:45pm Jun 4, 2014 10:45pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} You can either look at a business as gamble or a gamble as a business. Many look at forex trading as a business To me, anything with uncertain outcome is a gamble. My business is definitely a gamble. I invest, pay rent, stake merchandise and wait for customers. It has no certain outcome. It is gamble.
When you frame gamble in broad terms everything in life becomes a gamble marriage sex travel kids etc
Why do I get the sense you start a thread,ask questions but not interested on answers but instead you repeat things as though 5 pages of discussions meant nothing.
You like hearing yourself or you do want genuine discussion.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #89
  • Jun 4, 2014 10:54pm Jun 4, 2014 10:54pm
Gambling > not sure what it do and not sure what is the out come , not that close to . These is more like new version of slavery , the less of the less cheap labor , there is a price , bring your own money do what ever you want with the money as long as the price is moving you can long short ....

any winner or loser have the advantages of leverages , winner or loser have to pay the spreads .... wooo free money .....

the owner dont put a real money in it just face value , the player kill each other , the less less is player chocking each other .... welcome to the Forex jungle ...not the strongest will servive but the one can adapt .....

no real money , face value ? 1 yes , some one or some group will outed the pair .... 2 base on what that currency is valued ? no body knows whats the real weight value it is ...... fiat punto ....

zorro did pound ? yes , welcome seat on me lap , please clean me at my own table ....
  • #90
  • Jun 4, 2014 10:55pm Jun 4, 2014 10:55pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Would you say someone who wants to open a business as "you are a gambler?" Just as much risk involve as trading Plumber Eletrician Lawyer Theropist Restarantour List goes on and on All risk to start up their businesses but I would not categorize that as gambling. To me Risk does not Equal Gambling Common theme with business start ups is owner has a business plan How many here have Trading plan There is also lot of myth about trading 95% losers are false.True number is about 70% and 30% successful which is pretty much align with most industries....
I fully agree with you. Well said! |
  • #91
  • Jun 4, 2014 11:04pm Jun 4, 2014 11:04pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} When you frame gamble in broad terms everything in life becomes a gamble marriage sex travel kids etc Why do I get the sense you start a thread,ask questions but not interested on answers but instead you repeat things as though 5 pages of discussions meant nothing. You like hearing yourself or you do want genuine discussion.
Look Davit, I am saying what I believe in and have reasons to believe in. What difference does it make if forex trading, or any venture for that matter is gamble or not?
The point of this whole discussion is how to devise a method that works in all situations. If we ignore the uncertainty, which is a fundamental element of this market only because we don't like the term "gambling", we won't be able to focus on the main issue. If this market is not a gamble, why not invest and get a fixed return from this market while our investment is secured?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #92
  • Jun 4, 2014 11:38pm Jun 4, 2014 11:38pm
If you make the distinction between Gambling and other risk taking as being one of social use, Forex should probably fall out of the category of gambling.

If you equate gambling with taking risk, it does not.

The term for someone who wins big in reno and keeps right on playing the game he won at, should often be "sucker".

Does trading the forex have social use?

It is reasonable to say that it can. It helps people from one country buy goods from another, by fixed and institutionalizing price.

That price is called "fair"

All money, including gold and silver coin, have a value only because of this concept.

Gold is not any more valuable than the market says it is.

This question of semantics is not really trivial.

There are many people who enter this market or the stock market , or art or stamp collecting, as a means of gambling.

It is not they who play the valuable role of fixing proper exchange values.

On the other hand, every one who breaths gambles that the breath they just took was a good one.
It is a good practice to take a look at the breath you just took and realize that it was a gift from God.

a good clean breath without any pain, cleansing and refreshing, is a blessing beyond compare.

Or the last thing you ever do: sometimes both.

Davit, I congratulate you from cleaning up your act and getting rid of the gambling habit.

Chicky, I congratulate you for being a good gambler, the kind who benefits others, while seeking to prevail one's self.

So there!
  • #93
  • Edited 12:36am Jun 5, 2014 12:07am | Edited 12:36am
I am always amazed to see the majority in perpetual pie-in-the-sky mode and preaching to those who already "believe"
Trading is gambling. Get over it. Pretending it is something else (for example a legitimate business ) will make you lose more.


Admit it and start winning at life - not forex.
(hint: replace "gambling" with "trading")

1. We admitted we were powerless over gambling - that our lives had become unmanageable.
2. Came to believe that a Power greater than ourselves could restore us to a normal way of thinking and living.
3. Made a decision to turn our will and our lives over to the care of this Power of our own understanding.
4. Made a searching and fearless moral and financial inventory of ourselves.
5. Admitted to ourselves and to another human being the exact nature of our wrongs.
6. Were entirely ready to have these defects of character removed.
7. Humbly asked God (of our understanding) to remove our shortcomings.
8. Made a list of all persons we had harmed and became willing to make amends to them all.
9. Make direct amends to such people wherever possible, except when to do so would injure them or others.
10. Continued to take personal inventory and when we were wrong, promptly admitted it.
11. Sought through prayer and meditation to improve our conscious contact with God as we understood Him, praying only for knowledge of His will for us and the power to carry that out.
12. Having made an effort to practice these principles in all our affairs, we tried to carry this message to other compulsive gamblers.
  • #94
  • Jun 5, 2014 12:36am Jun 5, 2014 12:36am
Quoting Davit
{quote} When you frame gamble in broad terms everything in life becomes a gamble marriage sex travel kids etc Why do I get the sense you start a thread,ask questions but not interested on answers but instead you repeat things as though 5 pages of discussions meant nothing. You like hearing yourself or you do want genuine discussion.

It's true tho, Davit. Everything in life, including forex is a gamble, it is a calculated risk. You do not know when you leave the house in the morning whether or not you are coming back. There are any number of fairly common ways you might not return home from getting your quart of milk.

A trading plan is no different than any other plan, you can mitigate risk, but you can never eliminate it. You can increase your probability of success, but you can never guarantee it. Therefore, trading, like everything else in life, is gambling.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #95
  • Jun 5, 2014 12:36am Jun 5, 2014 12:36am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} You can either look at a business as gamble or a gamble as a business. Many look at forex trading as a business To me, anything with uncertain outcome is a gamble. My business is definitely a gamble. I invest, pay rent, stake merchandise and wait for customers. It has no certain outcome. It is gamble.
ok, so now have another alternate definition:
Looking for real trading method to be changed to "Looking for real business method with competence and certain outcome"

IF it's certain outcome, well prepared/researched business method then the system do not need to use Stop Loss at all as risk management....becoz its a certain outcome.

now, how to approach or to reach that kind level ( a certainly 100% expected/researched outcome realized in real).
min req:
a. u must have luck.
OR
b. a future economic almanac books like back to the future movie
and complemented by
A. a safe and low risk trading method without the use of SL
for example a trading entry method that can handle 800 pip negative for minimum 200 pips profit
or
B. a position where 10 pips loss = MC

well, outcome can be both profit or lossess.


whats your thoughts Chicky?
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #96
  • Jun 5, 2014 2:04am Jun 5, 2014 2:04am
Quoting Davit
{quote} When you frame gamble in broad terms everything in life becomes a gamble marriage sex travel kids etc Why do I get the sense you start a thread,ask questions but not interested on answers but instead you repeat things as though 5 pages of discussions meant nothing. You like hearing yourself or you do want genuine discussion.
thank you davit, you have been educative
cut your losses short and let your profit run
  • #97
  • Jun 5, 2014 3:16am Jun 5, 2014 3:16am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} I am also of the opinion that forex trading is no different from gambling. Have expressed this view many times over several years. In any gambling, there are two types of players. 1) Who take risk but never get in a position to manage that risk. They are known as Punters. 2) Who take risk but are always in a position to manage their risk. They first reduce their risk, then they bring it to zero and finally they get into a position where no matter what the outcome is they are sure winners. They are called Bookmakers. Your brokers are part...
When you go to a roulette table do you see lines and graphic charts telling you that the numbers are in uptrend meaning that the next number to come will be of higher value than the other? (I don't think so) Therefore you don't even have a slightest clue where the ball will go. On the other hand when you look at a USDJPY or any other chart and see a rise in price, can you with a high amount of probability tell where the next price from the current will be and will it be higher or lower?
  • #98
  • Jun 5, 2014 3:22am Jun 5, 2014 3:22am
Quoting merquise
{quote} When you go to a roulette table do you see lines and graphic charts telling you that the numbers are in uptrend meaning that the next number to come will be of higher value than the other? (I don't think so) Therefore you don't even have a slightest clue where the ball will go. On the other hand when you look at a USDJPY or any other chart and see a rise in price, can you with a high amount of probability tell where the next price from the current will be and will it be higher or lower?
No.

Every green bar on every chart has the potential of being the yearly high. It might only be 10% but it is not certain by any stretch. To compound this, if you buy the high of this bar, you do not know how long it will take for the trend to continue if it does not continue immediately, nor do you know how deep the pullback will be. All of this is speculation. In other words, it is gambling.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #99
  • Jun 5, 2014 3:32am Jun 5, 2014 3:32am
Yes it has the potential if it's moving flat, and one is up and other is down, but because you can see if price develops a pattern you have a higher chance of being right in terms of probability. Therefore it's speculative thinking derived from multiple inputs and based upon your past experience as well.

Let me try to illustrate that:

https://charts.mql5.com/4/893/chfjpy...ari-uk-ltd.png

Can you with high amount of certainty spot patterns on this chart?

Can you spot patterns in roulette?
  • #100
  • Jun 5, 2014 3:55am Jun 5, 2014 3:55am
Quoting merquise
Yes it has the potential if it's moving flat, and one is up and other is down, but because you can see if price develops a pattern you have a higher chance of being right in terms of probability. Therefore it's speculative thinking derived from multiple inputs and based upon your past experience as well. Let me try to illustrate that: {image} Can you with high amount of certainty spot patterns on this chart? Can you spot patterns in roulette?
I see all the W's and the M's. I even see an AB = CD. It is all good in hindsight. We trade the hard right edge. Yes, we can draw lines, and targets, and put up fibs, and draw a Keltner, put up a BB, and throw a Gann fan on there too.

It all looks great in hindsight.

Do we know for sure what the price will be an hour from this moment? Can it be done beyond that statistical probability of chance?

No.

I can't, you can't, lehmann couldn't, nor could Bear Stearns, LTCM got really fancy and they failed also.

Merquise, trading is gambling. Now you might be good at it, but if we are honest we will call it what it is.

Whether you trade pin bars or doji's, or stoch's, or rsi's, you are really just betting red, or black.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
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