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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #14,721
  • Jun 4, 2014 10:08am Jun 4, 2014 10:08am
Mapping Europe's Last Best Hope Against Russia's Gas Stranglehold

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...s-stranglehold
  • #14,722
  • Jun 4, 2014 10:09am Jun 4, 2014 10:09am
Quoting janpec1000
EU two simple targets http://prntscr.com/3plhzx
looks good to me, Jan :-)
  • #14,723
  • Jun 4, 2014 10:41am Jun 4, 2014 10:41am
COT data for EU

The Comms are net long, and the COT Index shows a value of 100% for them

about time to go long, normally

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  • #14,724
  • Jun 4, 2014 10:45am Jun 4, 2014 10:45am
Quoting infinitus
COT data for EU The Comms are net long, and the COT Index shows a value of 100% for them about time to go long, normally {image}
on the other hand: the value for "%Comm long all" shows only a value of around 54%

so I see it this time (the COT index) as a rather weak signal
  • #14,725
  • Jun 4, 2014 10:55am Jun 4, 2014 10:55am
Quoting infinitus
COT data for EU The Comms are net long, and the COT Index shows a value of 100% for them about time to go long, normally {image}

Also i noticed there is serious weakness in USD.
  • #14,726
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:17pm Jun 4, 2014 12:17pm
Have those two open, i dont see reason to take profits even that target 1 was reached, market structure is bearish on increased supply. However if i let them run i am sticking to rate cut on tomorrow ( i am thinking if there is no rate cut rally will be hard and i could get big slippage on SL). Hm not sure.
http://prntscr.com/3pmp09

They dumped gold like i said yesterday, starting with US news. Now we are gona see flat movement and most likely the real push trough support tomorrow somewhere around ECB conference.
  • #14,727
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:20pm Jun 4, 2014 12:20pm
Quoting infinitus
COT data for EU The Comms are net long, and the COT Index shows a value of 100% for them about time to go long, normally {image}
What do you mean by term Comms?

Never mind for upper post, i took profits of table. My plan to short EU ahead of possible rate cut did not went well (holding shorts into cut), due to flat range for past few days. Having shorts now its risking slippage SL in case if rate cut is not announced.
  • #14,728
  • Jun 4, 2014 1:00pm Jun 4, 2014 1:00pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} What do you mean by term Comms? Never mind for upper post, i took profits of table. My plan to short EU ahead of possible rate cut did not went well (holding shorts into cut), due to flat range for past few days. Having shorts now its risking slippage SL in case if rate cut is not announced.
the comms are the commercials.........
  • #14,729
  • Jun 4, 2014 1:41pm Jun 4, 2014 1:41pm
EURAUD target, could be reached before ECB conference. If not then it doesnt matter anyways as price will move far lower or higher from target.
http://prntscr.com/3pnnm6
  • #14,730
  • Jun 4, 2014 2:39pm Jun 4, 2014 2:39pm
will go long around the 3588 vicinity


no SL, because of offseting some long time shorts with short term longs


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  • #14,731
  • Jun 4, 2014 2:57pm Jun 4, 2014 2:57pm
Quoting infinitus
will go long around the 3588 vicinity no SL, because of offseting some long time shorts with short term longs {image}
I also have some long-term short, holding since a while now but plan to off load tomorrow either before the ECB meeting or will put a limit to cut the profit.

How much downside you see here, was expecting it to be around 1.3550 today which it did not but don't want to hold my short during tomorrow rate cut decision.

As you mentioned you are off-setting your shorts by long entries, my only trouble is unlocking the positions after I do like that, that can be bit tricky sometimes. Hopefully will learn that some day.

Regards,
  • #14,732
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:00pm Jun 4, 2014 3:00pm
Russian troops in Ukraine? Got any proof?' Putin's best quotes from French media talk

http://rt.com/news/163676-putin-ukraine-french-us/
  • #14,733
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:16pm Jun 4, 2014 3:16pm
http://rt.com/news/163456-daredevils...per-climb-pov/
  • #14,734
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:24pm Jun 4, 2014 3:24pm
Quoting workingforex
{quote} I also have some long-term short, holding since a while now but plan to off load tomorrow either before the ECB meeting or will put a limit to cut the profit. How much downside you see here, was expecting it to be around 1.3550 today which it did not but don't want to hold my short during tomorrow rate cut decision. As you mentioned you are off-setting your shorts by long entries, my only trouble is unlocking the positions after I do like that, that can be bit tricky sometimes. Hopefully will learn that some day. Regards,
Hi Workingforex,

I do think that we will see max 3588 on the downside today. Tomorrow another run up to around 3640, then a final drop into the 3540-3490 area

After that we may see a move into the 3670 to 3730 area.

JMHO - this is my best Elliott Wave scenario, which would fit perfectly into my volume profile system


What do you mean by saying: my only trouble is unlocking the positions after I do like that
  • #14,735
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:25pm Jun 4, 2014 3:25pm

Quoting infinitus
COT data for EU The Comms are net long, and the COT Index shows a value of 100% for them about time to go long, normally {image}
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
  • #14,736
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:44pm Jun 4, 2014 3:44pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Workingforex, I do think that we will see max 3588 on the downside today. Tomorrow another run up to around 3640, then a final drop into the 3540-3490 area After that we may see a move into the 3670 to 3730 area. JMHO - this is my best Elliott Wave scenario, which would fit perfectly into my volume profile system What do you mean by saying: my only trouble is unlocking the positions after I do like that
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  • #14,737
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:46pm Jun 4, 2014 3:46pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Workingforex, I do think that we will see max 3588 on the downside today. Tomorrow another run up to around 3640, then a final drop into the 3540-3490 area After that we may see a move into the 3670 to 3730 area. JMHO - this is my best Elliott Wave scenario, which would fit perfectly into my volume profile system What do you mean by saying: my only trouble is unlocking the positions after I do like that

What I meant by that if I try to hedge my position, it can be tricky to unlock that back. Sorry did I understood that wrong when you said you off set the position by long entry.

Yes I would ideally want to liquidate my shorts which I am holding from around 1.3800 area anywhere from 1.3550 - 1.3500 area. Fingers crossed, tomorrow is the 'D' day.
  • #14,738
  • Jun 5, 2014 7:11am Jun 5, 2014 7:11am
Quoting janpec1000
EURAUD target, could be reached before ECB conference. If not then it doesnt matter anyways as price will move far lower or higher from target. http://prntscr.com/3pnnm6
EURAUD target reached up to pip.
  • #14,739
  • Edited 3:15pm Jun 5, 2014 7:12am | Edited 3:15pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Workingforex, I do think that we will see max 3588 on the downside today. Tomorrow another run up to around 3640, then a final drop into the 3540-3490 area After that we may see a move into the 3670 to 3730 area. JMHO - this is my best Elliott Wave scenario, which would fit perfectly into my volume profile system What do you mean by saying: my only trouble is unlocking the positions after I do like that

That played out very nicely :-) at least so far




I do not know what you mean by "unlocking". Sorry no native English speaker here




I do the following:


have a bigger long term short position with average entry around 3970


from time to time I play the retracements with additional long positions (so I am long and short at the same time, so I do offset some risk temporarily). When appropriate, I then sell again the long positions.....




At 3630-3640 I once again was 100% full short.


Now I go long with some positions, leaving me net-short with around 50%




here I take my longs:


@ 3665 (just bought) (offsetting 30% of the shorts) EDIT: should have read 3565 (that was the price around my posting)


@ 3550
@ 3546
@ 3540
@ 3535
@ 3531




when we get extended move, I will offset further shorts (when all got triggered, I am net balanced)


@ 3521
@ 3510
@ 3502
@ 3592
@ 3582
  • #14,740
  • Jun 5, 2014 7:22am Jun 5, 2014 7:22am
will the count work?


soon to be decision time

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