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Expert traders secret "revealed"

  • #21
  • Edited 1:57pm May 10, 2011 1:25pm | Edited 1:57pm
Quoting Adewumi
That is quite a blunt statement, you cant just make a rash statement like that without stating the reasons.
Like in any other profession, there are only a few that will come out on top. Or like when building businesses. I heard that there is also a 95% failure rate. Or like in nature, the fittest will survive. It's a natural selection process. Especially in the markets. 5% are feeding off the 95% losers. In other professions, mediocre people also get money (paychecks), but if you are mediocre in trading, you will be among the losers.


Quoting Adewumi
can someone make modifications without testing them? you said most!! which means that there are actually some that works." modifications i have made were made to clarify entry and exit points or apply a given strategy to different timeframes. you should know that nobody makes modifications without having a positive expectancy. modifications can also help in eliminating false signals. i personally think your statement is not true in this case.
Well, I can just speak from experience that most modifications which I thought are leading to a better expectancy, actually made the strategy worse off.
Yes, modifications might help eliminate false signals, but they are also responsible for eliminating good signals. Mostly making adjustments that cancel out the losers as well as the winners will lead to less profitability.

Quoting Adewumi
i will like to ask you a question Custos. HOW MANY WAYS ARE THERE TO TRADE THE FOREX MARKET? you seem to think there is only one way and that is yours (no offense please). A strategy usually has entry and exit signals. you may have daily targets but if you don't if there is no entry signal for that day you simply stay out of the market. it is as simple as that.


Secondly markets arent equal everyday but they are average daily ranges of currencies which if you are going to be sincere are more than 40 pips at least. (whether the market is ranging...
there are lots of ways to trade of course, just not a lot of profitable ways.
Probably I misunderstood your use of daily targets. I thought that actually means a daily target which I have to reach each and every day. As I said before, markets are different each day, and having daily targets will just make a newbie overtrade.
Monthly targets are much better, cause you can allow yourself only to trade the best days.

Well, my advice always has been to stop relying on other people's opinions and advice and just research the markets in a scientific manner. No amount of psychological development will get you into the profitable section, when you don't have a system with positive expectancy (which should be based on your research).

edit: actually I want to add something which I just saw in an interview with a successful hedge fund manager. He basically said, if more people focused on not losing money instead of making money, they will be incredibly successful. So maybe one can exchange the rule of monthly profit targets to a rule of monthly "protecting assets". That also will reinforce the notion of not overtrading and really only enter in situations when everything lines up according to your plan.
  • #22
  • May 10, 2011 2:33pm May 10, 2011 2:33pm
So...

1) Positive Mental Attitude.

2) TA / FA based system.

3) Risk Management.

Am I missing something?

1 and 2 dont make sense to me...

4) ...shsss the secret is not on the interwebz / forumz
  • #23
  • May 10, 2011 3:12pm May 10, 2011 3:12pm
Quoting Pipalicious
4) ...shsss the secret is not on the interwebz / forumz
...membership to the Illuminati?
  • #24
  • May 11, 2011 8:44am May 11, 2011 8:44am
Quoting Intu
...membership to the Illuminati?
Yeah that would be good too

What I mean is that most overcomplicate the obvious.

Less is better.

People are making money on concepts introduced 20-40 years ago...but that doesnt mean new concepts dont exist.

However these wont be on forums nor internet (yet).

By the way: Im still not consistent.
  • #25
  • May 11, 2011 10:39am May 11, 2011 10:39am
Quoting Custos
first of all thank you. Secondly, I don't wanna share how I trade for the simple reason that I spent a lot of time to research that. Handing out such work doesn't make sense to me.

But I recommend you to just get a good backtesting program and learn how to program. Then you can research your own strategy. From my point of view that is the only way of attack to "conquer" the markets. Cause the backtesting program will be able to test your strategy across various time-frames and instruments within a few minutes.
ive never used a back testing program!

could you recommend one please?

how do they work?......i just enter the details of my system and it runs a test over a certain number of days/weeks/months/years?

wouldnt this mean one could test a whole system out in minutes?.....sounds too easy lol
  • #26
  • May 11, 2011 10:58am May 11, 2011 10:58am
Quoting red2010
ive never used a back testing program!

could you recommend one please?

how do they work?......i just enter the details of my system and it runs a test over a certain number of days/weeks/months/years?

wouldnt this mean one could test a whole system out in minutes?.....sounds too easy lol
well, I can pm you with which program I use, since it's against the rules to "promote" something.

Yeah, basically you program all rules and run a backtest for the last couple of years to decades.
The programming part is the thing which is rather difficult, if you have no professional background in that, especially when the rules are rather difficult to put into programming language.

Well, it seems easy, but in the end, you will find that lots of systems have a negative expectancy. That's why it still requires you months to years of research.
  • #27
  • May 12, 2011 11:33am May 12, 2011 11:33am
Quoting Custos
well, I can pm you with which program I use, since it's against the rules to "promote" something.

Yeah, basically you program all rules and run a backtest for the last couple of years to decades.
The programming part is the thing which is rather difficult, if you have no professional background in that, especially when the rules are rather difficult to put into programming language.

Well, it seems easy, but in the end, you will find that lots of systems have a negative expectancy. That's why it still requires you months to years of research....
How long have you been trading the automated method? The word out there is automation on a market turns out to be practically a loser on the long run. Do you have a trading journal you share?
  • #28
  • May 16, 2011 4:41pm May 16, 2011 4:41pm
Sometimes i wonder whether there is anything new that can ever be said in forex. I posted a thread recently and saw that one has been posted earlier in 2007 with exact title. i posted another and saw that idea had already been discussed.

It suddenly dawned me that there may be nothing new under the sun.
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  • #29
  • May 16, 2011 4:42pm May 16, 2011 4:42pm
it is may just be that people dont practice what the read or dont practice long enough to see if the actually work. It might just be because of the amount of nonsense out in space
  • #30
  • May 16, 2011 4:55pm May 16, 2011 4:55pm
Good post and there is so much to add to the mix. I like to keep things nice and simple and look for areas of important support and resistance. The areas that have the cash flowing into them.

Forex doesn't have to be hard or complicated, learn to see something that happens over and over again, make a plan and stick to it...

Cheers

Dane
  • #31
  • May 17, 2011 5:07am May 17, 2011 5:07am
Yeah, time to set things Straight
i have added some references to the opening post so that things can be clearer than they were
  • #32
  • May 17, 2011 5:21am May 17, 2011 5:21am
Quoting Adewumi
I will tell you what really controls the forex market.

HUMAN EMOTION/PSYCHOLOGY
This is the driving power behind the forex market.
I prefer to ask...
What controls the human emotion to make such decisions?
What triggers the human psychology to make such reactions?

.... that is the driving power behind any charts
A universal force which is a lot more simple than supply and demand.

  • #33
  • May 17, 2011 8:38am May 17, 2011 8:38am
Quoting CrucialPoint
I prefer to ask...
What controls the human emotion to make such decisions?
What triggers the human psychology to make such reactions?

.... that is the driving power behind any charts
A universal force which is a lot more simple than supply and demand.

According to http://www.lse.co.uk/financeglossary...perfect_market

a Perfect Market is one that holds the following assumptions

(a) there is a large number of buyers;
(b) there is a large number of sellers;
(c) the quantity of goods bought by any individual transactor is so small relative to the total quantity traded that individual trades leave the market unaffected;
(d) the units of goods sold by different sellers are the same - the product is homogeneous;
(e) there is perfect information = all buyers and sellers have complete information on the prices being asked and offered in other parts of the market; and
(f) there is perfect freedom of entry to and exit from the market.

I think this much resembles the forex market. if we are to read between the lines of option (C) it means something has to drive a very large group of traders to decide to long or go short.

Yes, it is always analyst have never come together to pinpoint a particular factor that makes the whole market move in a Direction. But i choose to go with those that believe in emotions.

why?

this is because this is one trait we all share. it is an evolutionary trait. it affects our subconsciousness without us even knowing it.

But one thing with all these sorts of arguments is that there are always elements of truth in whatever sides you choose. For you to come out and say one side is outrightly false may imply you are using only sentiments and not facts. (no offense please just trying to make a point)
  • #34
  • May 19, 2011 1:17pm May 19, 2011 1:17pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
I prefer to ask...
What controls the human emotion to make such decisions?
What triggers the human psychology to make such reactions?

.... that is the driving power behind any charts
A universal force which is a lot more simple than supply and demand.

Predictable irrational behavior is what i personally was thinking.

Although, considering how predictable i am, i must be wrong
  • #35
  • Jun 3, 2014 10:09am Jun 3, 2014 10:09am
I disagree. The market is governed by nothing but supply & demand (not the technical analysis version which is a misnomer) which doesn't conform exactly to any form of analysis.

Quoting Adewumi
The forex market is principally governed by two principles which are; Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis
  • #36
  • Jun 3, 2014 12:01pm Jun 3, 2014 12:01pm
Quoting TranceTrader
I disagree. The market is governed by nothing but supply & demand (not the technical analysis version which is a misnomer) which doesn't conform exactly to any form of analysis. {quote}[/b]
finally breath of fresh air.No offense to previous posters.
Worth Watching
Inserted Video


Jason Alan Jankovsky - Understanding the Limitations of Technical Analysis
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #37
  • Feb 22, 2015 12:19pm Feb 22, 2015 12:19pm
IMO the greatest short coming of technical analysis is that it is blind to "whats happening behind the scenes". Take the SNB recent intervention. Which technical indicator can predict such movements.

On the other hand, so many traders use them to some extent. that gives them a certain level of credibility. that is why they are called indicator (a tool pointing to probable outcome/direction)


The message I intended to pass across when starting the thread is simple

You cant control the market, you cant predict the market.
BUT
you can control your self, and make calculated educated decisions on your trading decision.

I have learnt a lot since starting this thread, and I am still learning and would continue learning till I leave this world. Period.
  • #38
  • Last Post: Feb 22, 2015 12:34pm Feb 22, 2015 12:34pm
23 people find this thread either poor or very poor for finding information.

Hahaha just like pretty much every other thread
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
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