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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #46,481
  • Jun 3, 2014 10:46am Jun 3, 2014 10:46am
Quoting trad8
{quote} Hi Chief, No leh. I only lau kopi at Amoy or the old lau pau sak Sometimes bad mood eat tu-lan also Regards, btw telex confo you need me to delete? Think edit button live for xx hours only
need send to settlements for back office processing meh.
nevermind la.not sensitive for me.
your choice. whatever suits.

regards
  • #46,482
  • Jun 3, 2014 11:11am Jun 3, 2014 11:11am
Quoting fti
{quote} need send to settlements for back office processing meh. nevermind la.not sensitive for me. your choice. whatever suits. regards
I'm cool.

Ok time for lalluby for me

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Enjoy and good-nite

Regards
  • #46,483
  • Jun 3, 2014 11:26am Jun 3, 2014 11:26am
Sorry ... really one last for for the night

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  • #46,484
  • Jun 3, 2014 11:58am Jun 3, 2014 11:58am
Back from vacation....wow what a vacation can do to you...


V
  • #46,485
  • Edited 1:08pm Jun 3, 2014 12:10pm | Edited 1:08pm
Quoting trad8
Sorry ... really one last for for the night http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=C0RECrCOlJk
i not understand why Kuwata san is no where to be found.
anyway these his songs.where all his beautiful ballads. Now i need go dig out his albums.
already 15 +years dusty.

only 1
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ai ya maya , wonderful singer.
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regards
  • #46,486
  • Jun 3, 2014 12:37pm Jun 3, 2014 12:37pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Back from vacation....wow what a vacation can do to you... V


homw sweet home.

regards
  • #46,487
  • Jun 3, 2014 12:57pm Jun 3, 2014 12:57pm
Quoting fti
{quote} homw sweet home. regards


TAF has become part of home too


V
  • #46,488
  • Edited 3:00pm Jun 3, 2014 1:10pm | Edited 3:00pm
cover also can.
no problem
ai yo dirty old man album?
Ya, was released on that album.

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good try,
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this one is not kuwata's is old old jap enka.
but i like.

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  • #46,489
  • Jun 3, 2014 1:15pm Jun 3, 2014 1:15pm
Quoting fti
{quote} no worrys. 1 thingy i noticed but forgot to mention. you seems to be real trader. you trade bid offers, bargains. regards
Sorry for the late reply chief, was away for a short break.. now trying to find the rythm again... body and mind is cranky and heavy footed. very irritated with performance...
I actually wanted to be one, but was not given the opportunity by anyone. Maybe I wasnt looking hard enough, maybe it wasnt meant to be.
Moving on, Q2 this year, after rounds of demo and reading, i decided to go live, only to find myself in knee deep muddy terrain s muddled with lessons after lessons of emotions, blindness. I must say, it was very humbling and bring me back to basics.
And one thing I realised is that, all my time spent on demo, pretty much is quite a waste of time. Other then familarisation and testing stragety/ideas... it doesnt really kick the emotion like the real one does... It's 2am and I am not sure what I am typing, probably got to re-type this when I am more awake LOL.

That aside, yea, being a trader is what i want to do in life, day in day out, i kinda like it, except for the random time when I feel like breaking my index finger for clicking too quickly.

thank you for compliment(i hope it was ), with your kind guidance, i would very much prefer to be sharper.

Regards,


sometimes, i cant concentrate / focus w/o a cup of thick coffee, other times, its without a slight abuse of alcohols... tonight, it's the two in harmony.
Very windy this week thus far, getting blown here and there... ah.. umbrella is no use... i need to be in a building when the wind comes... :3
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #46,490
  • Edited 6:50pm Jun 3, 2014 2:10pm | Edited 6:50pm
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Sorry for the late reply chief, was away for a short break.. now trying to find the rythm again... body and mind is cranky and heavy footed. very irritated with performance... I actually wanted to be one, but was not given the opportunity by anyone. Maybe I wasnt looking hard enough, maybe it wasnt meant to be. Moving on, Q2 this year, after rounds of demo and reading, i decided to go live, only to find myself in knee deep muddy terrain s muddled with lessons after lessons of emotions, blindness. I must say, it was very humbling and bring...
sorry, late, was listening the covers, they good.
remember take things slow on own pace.
no crazy stuff like frustration.
you learning.
slow slow small small. easy as she glides.
park ambitions until you get the basics correct.
nothing worst that needing dig self out of hole.

and don't break wind in building , go outside.

regards
  • #46,491
  • Edited 5:12pm Jun 3, 2014 3:01pm | Edited 5:12pm

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rofl
tip: do this before cut losses.
woooooooooo, cut cut cut.
is not joke hor.
The way ken does it. @ 02:15
after much practise , one learns when is woooooooooo times and when is not. feel.


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  • #46,492
  • Edited 5:24am Jun 4, 2014 4:55am | Edited 5:24am
wow wonderful sleep after listening the old songs.
seems the cover singers are quite good?

By the way any one listens to Keisuke Kuwata or Southern All Stars?
Are they still singing?

@ trad8
I remembered you said something about Jpop.
I not know if you agrees with me.
In my book there no such thing as pop music. Music may fall in to diferent genres of music. But POP is not a genre.
Is peeps who knows nothing about music styles will classify any music as pop. In fact, any music that survives time, was popular. So those clssify music as pop, should have their heads examined. because in fact all music is pop, depends where you live i guess. what do you think?

I have same issues with peeps on technical Analysis classifications, is becoming a cess pool.
Think about it.
peeps who use charts recording yield curves, charts the fundemental change in rates decisions. Is that fundemental analysis or technical analysis?
What do you think? Is the cat a tiger?



regards
  • #46,493
  • Edited 6:08am Jun 4, 2014 5:49am | Edited 6:08am
talk about old songs.

I just found a piece music i so loves.
That cd of mine is in foreign house.
so i thought i will never get to hear this again.
hey but here it is.
Lovely.

ai ya but no transient impacts , sounds different. very muddy.
ahhhhhh ya nevermind, no fish , prawns also can lor.

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ahhhh, nice.
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regards
  • #46,494
  • Jun 4, 2014 7:31am Jun 4, 2014 7:31am
Quoting fti
wow wonderful sleep after listening the old songs. seems the cover singers are quite good? By the way any one listens to Keisuke Kuwata or Southern All Stars? Are they still singing? @ trad8 I remembered you said something about Jpop. I not know if you agrees with me. In my book there no such thing as pop music. Music may fall in to diferent genres of music. But POP is not a genre. Is peeps who knows nothing about music styles will classify any music as pop. In fact, any music that survives time, was popular. So those clssify music as pop, should...
Hi Chief,

Thanks for introducing so many beautiful songs. Actually I am late in this game. During my younger days, I was influenced by peeps to listened to over-hyped songs. Most of them didn't lasted thru time and were one hit wonders.

I am glad you have shared these gems. I would need to retrain my ears. Call me an old dog if you want Hope you will continue sharing and not give up on this dog.

Pop songs?

To me any songs that make it to my turntable and makes clicks and POP is considered pop songs to me.

Agree with you there is no genre called pop. Songs that survive the test of time is the most important, irregardless pop or not.

Infact what you have presented, some songs were not even popular initially but gain popularity in time gradually. Unlike some songs that goes through all the glitter packaging, attractive for a short period but ultimately die of it natural self. You agree or not?

Regards,

I remember when I started initially 20 years ago, I went to Bras Brash and buy lots of graph paper. With lots of determination, plotted my 10x30 point of figure charts, jointed the graph paper with scotch tape if needed, plotted trend-line and identified heads and shoulders. At that time, I thought I was very clever !

I guess these peeps that use charts to forcast rates must be feeling very clever as well
  • #46,495
  • Edited 8:35am Jun 4, 2014 7:49am | Edited 8:35am
Quoting trad8
{quote} Hi Chief, Thanks for introducing so many beautiful songs. Actually I am late in this game. During my younger days, I was influenced by peeps to listened to over-hyped songs. Most of them didn't lasted thru time and were one hit wonders. I am glad you have shared these gems. I would need to retrain my ears. Call me an old dog if you want Hope you will continue sharing and not give up on this dog. Pop songs? To me any songs that make it to my turntable and makes clicks and POP is considered pop songs to me. Agree with you there is no...
is ok la.
i heard so many songs in my life, but yet i think i just heard some.
Cannot catch them all.
Some songs stayed with me. Many i forgot about them.

ya ya turn table pop crackles and hisses. but i feel the sound range more complete. but i can feel it.
nowadays i not hve much market to talk so i talk abit about songs. Jst wondering if i am too much , over the line with ff.
They not sound so i ASSUME they trying give me as much slack as they can.

So you are a point and fig man?Is good chart technique. But when cut out gyration 'noise' same as recordings. some good stuff also gets cut out.
is like eat ice cream without the cream, thats my feelings. Is like see someone come back from work, only not know he's been to hell and back( maybe at his mistresses house?(oh I talking market analogy , no get wrong ideas hor or start new projects)). Also if reversal boxes becomes too big lags crazy. You should have much p&F experiences, 20 years, do you feel that?

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regards

sometimes with 5 min bar charts i already feel, i missed some critical info.
But is very hard analyse lesser than 5 mins charts.not enough brain cells and as you may know 5 mins is not even enough time for dealers do away with the handshakes before the clubs appears. but of course during deperado time, no time shake hands and feets. Those time could get 5 to 10 banks all on standby help you dump the shit into the markets. But those times, i not see much point in charting anything. Even a 10 second chart will show either a rocket or a bottom less pitdrop.
  • #46,496
  • Edited 8:49am Jun 4, 2014 8:24am | Edited 8:49am
Quoting fti
{quote} is ok la. i heard so many songs in my life, but yet i think i just heard some. Cannot catch them all. Some songs stayed with me. Many i forgot about them. ya ya turn table pop crackles and hisses. but i feel the sound range more complete. but i can feel it. nowadays i not hve much market to talk so i talk abit about songs. Jst wondering if i am too much , over the line with ff. They not sound so i ASSUME they trying give me as much slack as they can. So you are a point and fig man?Is good chart technique. But when cut...
Hi Chief,

Sama sama. What say you we continue? music, not sounds or noise mah. It ain't over till the fat lady sings.

Rewind back to the good old days, daily ranges were so much deeper. Ups and down were the days. I was sold during those days pnf works. Guess that was when technicals were at its infancy. As things gets mature, it bounds to looses its shine. Rigidity? Don't assume.

But agree on lags. I remember one time USDJPY was hardly moving for a long long time. My pnf was like a dead stick with no reversals. Best to kill time by listening to enka When it does, lag till fall asleep

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Regards,

Haha ... rem I was waiting for the water to boil to make kopi, within 3 secs after a figs night, both orders 100 pips away were stopped out both side. Price was still at pre-figs level. Peeps have hard time telling custy about their stops being done as chart catch no ball
  • #46,497
  • Edited 9:22am Jun 4, 2014 8:50am | Edited 9:22am
Quoting trad8
{quote} Hi Chief, Sama sama. What say you we continue? music, not sounds or noise mah. It ain't over till the fat lady sings. Rewind back to the good old days, daily ranges were so much deeper. Ups and down were the days. I was sold during those days pnf works. Guess that was when technicals were at its infancy. As things gets mature, it bounds to looses its shine. Rigidity? Don't assume. But agree on lags. I remember one time USDJPY was hardly moving for a long long time. My pnf was like a dead stick with no reversals. Best to kill time by listening...
ya ya the range was bigger because everyone hitting at 5-10 pip spreads.
now we on the other side.
now we have 1-2 pips clown around with.

so for us everything stays status quo.
only thingy ticket size not necessary.
always thanked God made it possible .
Only wished i had a better body. can't complain.
but i different i guess ,not need better body, need a better pump.

regards

have you heard eartha kitt? the real world.


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  • #46,498
  • Jun 4, 2014 9:08am Jun 4, 2014 9:08am
Many songs are so new to me

v
  • #46,499
  • Jun 4, 2014 9:14am Jun 4, 2014 9:14am
hi fti,

i was thinking if a it was possible to create a book whose delta is always automatically hedged, through 3 time frames and 3 strategies that were being implemented.

the first level of the book is the long straddle on the s&p index and europe index and works on the time frame of a year, so we would buy a long straddle each on the s&p index and europe index, for 1 year, with book value of allocated amount 20% but initial establishment is 5% with additional 15% capital meant for being kept as capital to help move the position when needed. also the indices still have some volatility around which is better than using equities outright.

the second level of the book is selling butterflies on us equities, which is about 50% of the book, with 25% utilization, and another 25% capital meant for managing the position, selling month butterflies

and the 3rd level with 30% to implement your strategy on the eurusd pair, which is intra day.

the idea is, during normal times, the correlation of the 3 strategies are rather low and can be managed individually.
however, during times of financial crisis, the 3 would establish correlation of have extreme vols, and because there is extreme vols, the correlation is established and if we synchronize the deltas of the long straddle with our spot eurusd position, so all we need to do is to cut the spot eurusd position, and we end up with a positive book value, if it happened too fast, we are delta hedged, and won't be in a bad position either.

so during the normal times, the long straddle can perhaps be used to long vols, while during times of crisis, it can be used as built in insurance.
also if during normal times, the long straddle if it shows profit, may be able to use foreign capital to martingale on the position, and keep increasing exposure, only on foreign capital, while increasing our insurance size, built on foreign capital, due to the market movements of the indices while being long vols.

hope you can give me some opinion on this thought process.
  • #46,500
  • Edited 9:46am Jun 4, 2014 9:23am | Edited 9:46am
Quoting fti
{quote} ya ya the range was bigger because everyone hitting at 5-10 pip spreads. now we on the other side. now we have 1-2 pips clown around with. so for us everything stays status quo. only thingy ticket size not necessary. always thanked God made it possible . Only wished i had a better body. can't complain. but i different i guess ,not need better body, need a better pump. regards have you heard eartha kitt? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1NrZgtPkFc
Hi Chief,

play with 1-2 pips? or tits? ... I mean piptits hor
But don't be disillusion, tits are there for show only. esp the pinks ones... try biting and they are not there

Regards,

Eartha kitt? Now I know! thanks again

Who can spot her?

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