Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
- #82
- Edited 2:36pm Jun 2, 2014 2:22pm | Edited 2:36pm
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,066 Posts
Interesting and true to form - Some detractors, some defenders and a few sympathizers. I love threads like this - comic relief after being stopped out
No disrespect to you whatsover gspajon. My question was not loaded. Just a simple question, observation that nobody wishes to discuss with any measure of intelligence or maturity. (but can't say I haven't enjoyed the witty remarks).
- #84
- Jun 2, 2014 5:08pm Jun 2, 2014 5:08pm
- Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 25,480 Posts
I'm truly sorry I started this mess, and have only myself to blame. I clearly didn't accomplish my stated goal, and will therefore refrain from commenting again on this forum.
I knew from the opening post that you weren't here to unveil some new holy grail. Or gather up lost newbies to sit them down and instruct them in the ways of the market. I seek no fish nor any training in fishing. I too have been here for some time and I know a few good folks who honestly work to help others. In my own limited way, I do the very same thing. I may not know it all but I sure know more than a newbie and can help them (well, some) avoid a pitfall or two along the way.
But seeing another "hard at it trader" come up and say AH HA!!! I've found something that "to me" makes a difference, DOES help to re-encourage those of us who have had plenty of "little" ah ha's but not that "ONE" yet. It helps us realize that staying with it, being diligent and focused "Does indeed have a reward in time". It's a personal journey. As such, it's a personal find and reward.
So you see sir (and surprisingly, I don't know you at all having been around this long), you can help the few, while the many go about chest pounding and arguing about.... Whatever...LOL
If you so choose, please keep in mind, it only takes one pebble cast in a pond to ripple out far and wide. You have cast that pebble. And when I find MY "AH HA" I shall as well.
<<< To me means Respect. NOT, not worthy. 
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
for a minute i thought this was another "i've found the Holy Grail" thread thank god its notbesides 60% is n't that high in probability and only just over 50/50 and the coin toss method 80%+ is really only to be considered high probability (imo) 90%+ is Holy Grail (according to Google searches on the subject) although apparently many big banks do regard 60% as fine, but then they know many other tricks for MM the little retailers don't good luck anyhow
- #91
- Jun 3, 2014 1:33am Jun 3, 2014 1:33am
- Joined May 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,997 Posts
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
From Saneblane
"And let's get to volume in the technical sense, the OP say that he has discovered how to use it properly and I can think about at least 2 ways to do that even on a chart, in even trading there is always a border,for example in a range that is 50 pips the border is about 25 pips, let's call the resistance side resistance land, and let's call the support side support land, resistance land has short citizens, and support land has long citizens, as soon as price crosses the border into either of these the land, the land where he is in would have the upper hand, they have more citizens there who agree with them (traders), by the time price is close to the county line (resistance line) in resistance land, it might take a little less volume to force price back down simply because resistance land has more traders who agree with them (short citizens), so the ratio of shorts/long is skewed, now immigration is an issue so some long citizens would be there contrarian but you get the picture. Volume is just a guide it's common sense that brings it to life. Lol and I hope my story didn't seem like something for little kids, I try to talk for any and everyone could understand when I do try to help."
That would seem to devolve into setting up a resistance line, and a support line below it, and expectations would be that price would head for the opposite line from the one it is closest to, maybe even drawing a line in the middle to show the border where tendencies swith for the moment.
I submit that Saneblane knows it's a lot fuzzier than that: don't go marking up your chart with lines you may not need.
If price does not bounce of these lines very often, you are not drawing them correctly. (actually that is pretty hard not to do, as long as you understand this is not hard and fast, but a matter of tendencies and probabilities.
I agree with this general description of price action.
Price tends not to cross a properly drawn line of resistance or support without some kind of reason.
There are those who make good money exploiting the fact that price seems to bounce between such lines.
Now when price is trending, it has crossed one of those lines.
you can often draw a line through the middle of a trending trace, and lines parallel to that line depicting the highs and lows of the trend, and more often than not, that line will be in the middle. A description of this condition would be similar to Saneblane's .
This is embodied in a statistical concept known as the Return to the Mean.
Now a curious feature of this that I have noted (and I am quite sure others have noted), that occasionally the trending trace encounters a level where, instead of continuing on, or dropping back to a new line of support, it just seems to shift to the right, continuing on with pretty much the same angles of lines and pretty much the same distances between them.
I am now given to wondering if this has something to do with the time of day. Centers of banking tend to be more concerned with currencies local to their area (their governments want a certain amount of stability to their currency, etc. etc. : news events concerning these currencies tend to occur when these centers are open.
Could it be that The lack of interest in the centers now open (compared to the ones that just closed) puts this pattern on hold, to be renewed when the original centers open back up again?
I would deem it wise, before assuming a pair is now ranging and not trending, to wait until its center is open again. If it ranges then, you can pretty much assume it will range for the next two shifts.
Or you can play the ranging game during the off-shifts, and close that game off before currency come on - shift. Playing it with a vengeance if it continues to range well into the on-shift.
Does this make sense to you?
I strongly suspect that most currency surges occur when they are on shift: does this make sense? The news events that "move" them occur on shift, generally, don't they?
Now this means if the Eur/usd makes a strong move at 3 A.M. eastern time, it is the Euro doing the action, since the boys in Manhattan are getting their beauty sleep. Other pairs involving the Euro are like to be moving in concert. Pairs involving the usd are more likely to be quiescent (read ranging?)
There is an undeniable diurnal pattern to the volumes in the Forex market. If you are looking for heavy traffic you need to be able to compare it with what would be normal for the time of day. I suspect the mix of currencies bought and sold depends on time of day as well, and that this would be especially true of smaller currencies like the Canadian dollar. Because there are fewer of them, and they will tend to be traded more when Canada is open.
I would guess that normally there are more lots of Usd/cad in play than Aud/cad. Looking at today's traces the Aud/cad is following the Aud/usd rather than the Usd/cad. Hmm... interesting...
Now where was I?
"And let's get to volume in the technical sense, the OP say that he has discovered how to use it properly and I can think about at least 2 ways to do that even on a chart, in even trading there is always a border,for example in a range that is 50 pips the border is about 25 pips, let's call the resistance side resistance land, and let's call the support side support land, resistance land has short citizens, and support land has long citizens, as soon as price crosses the border into either of these the land, the land where he is in would have the upper hand, they have more citizens there who agree with them (traders), by the time price is close to the county line (resistance line) in resistance land, it might take a little less volume to force price back down simply because resistance land has more traders who agree with them (short citizens), so the ratio of shorts/long is skewed, now immigration is an issue so some long citizens would be there contrarian but you get the picture. Volume is just a guide it's common sense that brings it to life. Lol and I hope my story didn't seem like something for little kids, I try to talk for any and everyone could understand when I do try to help."
That would seem to devolve into setting up a resistance line, and a support line below it, and expectations would be that price would head for the opposite line from the one it is closest to, maybe even drawing a line in the middle to show the border where tendencies swith for the moment.
I submit that Saneblane knows it's a lot fuzzier than that: don't go marking up your chart with lines you may not need.
If price does not bounce of these lines very often, you are not drawing them correctly. (actually that is pretty hard not to do, as long as you understand this is not hard and fast, but a matter of tendencies and probabilities.
I agree with this general description of price action.
Price tends not to cross a properly drawn line of resistance or support without some kind of reason.
There are those who make good money exploiting the fact that price seems to bounce between such lines.
Now when price is trending, it has crossed one of those lines.
you can often draw a line through the middle of a trending trace, and lines parallel to that line depicting the highs and lows of the trend, and more often than not, that line will be in the middle. A description of this condition would be similar to Saneblane's .
This is embodied in a statistical concept known as the Return to the Mean.
Now a curious feature of this that I have noted (and I am quite sure others have noted), that occasionally the trending trace encounters a level where, instead of continuing on, or dropping back to a new line of support, it just seems to shift to the right, continuing on with pretty much the same angles of lines and pretty much the same distances between them.
I am now given to wondering if this has something to do with the time of day. Centers of banking tend to be more concerned with currencies local to their area (their governments want a certain amount of stability to their currency, etc. etc. : news events concerning these currencies tend to occur when these centers are open.
Could it be that The lack of interest in the centers now open (compared to the ones that just closed) puts this pattern on hold, to be renewed when the original centers open back up again?
I would deem it wise, before assuming a pair is now ranging and not trending, to wait until its center is open again. If it ranges then, you can pretty much assume it will range for the next two shifts.
Or you can play the ranging game during the off-shifts, and close that game off before currency come on - shift. Playing it with a vengeance if it continues to range well into the on-shift.
Does this make sense to you?
I strongly suspect that most currency surges occur when they are on shift: does this make sense? The news events that "move" them occur on shift, generally, don't they?
Now this means if the Eur/usd makes a strong move at 3 A.M. eastern time, it is the Euro doing the action, since the boys in Manhattan are getting their beauty sleep. Other pairs involving the Euro are like to be moving in concert. Pairs involving the usd are more likely to be quiescent (read ranging?)
There is an undeniable diurnal pattern to the volumes in the Forex market. If you are looking for heavy traffic you need to be able to compare it with what would be normal for the time of day. I suspect the mix of currencies bought and sold depends on time of day as well, and that this would be especially true of smaller currencies like the Canadian dollar. Because there are fewer of them, and they will tend to be traded more when Canada is open.
I would guess that normally there are more lots of Usd/cad in play than Aud/cad. Looking at today's traces the Aud/cad is following the Aud/usd rather than the Usd/cad. Hmm... interesting...
Now where was I?
- #100
- Edited 5:34pm Jun 3, 2014 4:21pm | Edited 5:34pm
{quote} And that right there is pure gold.
Thanks man I don't think many appreciate the things I say but me and a few people here do think alike so it's alright I guess. Maybe it's because I view the market more like a machine that anything else, a being devoid of bias or conscience or any of that, that just fills orders all day everyday, and I just want to know what makes the machine tick. When I say I don't pay attention to much it doesn't mean I don't care about them, it means that I don't let them cloud my judgement because a lot of times, what is happening and what you expect to happen can vary greatly.
"Price tends not to cross a properly drawn line of resistance or support without some kind of reason."
@ Rap
That line is as true as you're ever going to experience, what I am more interested in though is the "reason" and not so much the line. Breakout traders do this too in some regards, it's a delicate art and something that can take years to master so there has to be something different between what was happening before and what is happening now.
"Now this means if the Eur/usd makes a strong move at 3 A.M. eastern time, it is the Euro doing the action, since the boys in Manhattan are getting their beauty sleep. Other pairs involving the Euro are like to be moving in concert. Pairs involving the usd are more likely to be quiescent (read ranging?)"
I say that is right for the most part, unless someone in London or "somewhere land" start selling another major against the USD at around the same time, then yea it would be a EUR time. The Swiss are up those times too so they could have an effect on the Dollar also, But yes most of the action over there are linked to the EUR some way so I think that's a safe idea.
"Could it be that The lack of interest in the centers now open (compared to the ones that just closed) puts this pattern on hold, to be renewed when the original centers open back up again?
I would deem it wise, before assuming a pair is now ranging and not trending, to wait until its center is open again. If it ranges then, you can pretty much assume it will range for the next two shifts.
Or you can play the ranging game during the off-shifts, and close that game off before currency come on - shift. Playing it with a vengeance if it continues to range well into the on-shift."
Lol We really do think alike, a while back I was wondering if there would be a way to exploit the changing of the sessions, meaning one sessiong might be more bearish than the one following and then when that one ends I can go from being a bear to a bull, but you can't really tell in exact number when the session is over, Lol I am laughing because I actually was trying to see if I can exploit the time the sun rises on different halves of the planet, but also the behavior of the different sessions is not something you can depend on they do no follow each other's sentiment enough to matter. Lol I closed the door on that idea a while back but I might venture into it maybe a later time, because there has to be something we are missing. But I have noticed that the New/Lon overlap likes to do things in 2's, meaning if today is bearish, tomorrow has a high chance of being bearish too, not all the time but more than the other sessions I guess, the only times it changes much is when it is ranges, I use to draw a line under each day's previous highs and lows and measure the angle of the trend so I would expect the range at some point where the price action was slowing ,but what ever it does 2 days in a row, would be a safe trade most times. But I might go back and check out the "shift" thing I believe that I might have missed something.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still