Medium & Long Term ONLY

Quoting selym_co

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{quote} {image} Hi Olu , I just saw your post. I wanna share another perspective (my detailed long term expectation chart) where the price has ended the week at an interesting place. First of all , the two top pivots which I marked with black little circles seem to be twin towers with similar strength and similar characteristics. The bullish trend was strong enough to break it in the north direction which made me believe that the price will be around 110s around February next year. But surprisingly the price retraced back to the circular support...

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Quoting Custos

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{quote} sorry man, but trying to predict the market by looking at engulfing patterns and tweezer bottoms is just plain stupid. The central banks don't care about that, the corporations which want to hedge don't care about that, the people who need to exchange money don't care about that and the hedge funds don't care about that either. If the central bank of japan is saying next week that they will do anything to get a strong jpy, then all your price patterns have no meaning whatsoever, you will get hammered.

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Quoting srt

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{quote} Yes, a large news event will probably make patterns useless when the news breaks but that's less than 1% of the time.

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Quoting Olu

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{quote} Hi Custos It is not as stupid as you say. We are technical traders we have to follow something or the other - MAs, EW, Gann ets. We dont just shoot anyhow. If price is in an uptrend does some retracement and puts a bullish engulfing off support area I am now programmed to go long. That is me. Other traders feel free to condemn me for doing that. I do agree though that fundamentals can trump the technicals we follow short termish. A bearish engulfing candle pattern in the usdjpy cannot withstand a 3 billion $ BOJ purchase of $. The candle...

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Quoting Custos

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{quote} well olu, my point is: most traders think that the technicals are the way to go. But nobody really cares about them in the real world. You need to look at what people care about in the real world. The BOJ intervention this was just an extreme example to make my point. A slight data miss would do the same to your technical patterns, you would get hammered. My point is that you need to be able to read real world events not how the charts are set up. The best chart setups will always get hammered by fundamentals, even if there are only slight...

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Quoting Custos

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{quote} I am going to make the case that 100% of the time it's because of news that S/R holds or breaks. A pinbar just doesn't mean anything, when news are better or worse than expected then these news are very capable of destroying that pinbar. And a miss or overshoot of data is happening all the time, otherwise you wouldn't have any movements in the currency markets. Better yet, the big guys will try to execute a lot of orders below the pinbar before catapulting it into the other direction, so that a lot of retail traders and other instutitional...

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Quoting vox dei

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{quote} Not necessarily. The way I see it, fundamentals are only half explanation. The market's own mechanics are the other half of the explanation. When fundamentals are all too obvious, the trade can easily get overcrowded (ie, everyone that wanted to buy or sell already bought or sold), resulting in price moving against all fundamental facts/reasoning. The market simply does not have the habit of rewarding the majority of participants.

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Quoting vincentprice

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{quote} Did you take the trade?

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Quoting 1 in 1 out

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{quote} Yes I did, 1 position. Half closed @ the 1,2,3 resistance area from the daily chart (red) 2nd @ B/E albeit price has almost retraced all the way back to my entry. Interestingly a 1,2,3 (green) support area formed on the daily chart a couple of weeks back. This sits atop my originally identified support zone,wave confluence and fib level from the weekly chart. Should this area hold I will add a 2nd position with the same initial parameters. {image} {image}

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Quoting vincentprice

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{quote} GBP/AUD in process of forming a pullback, I have updated the chart for the new high. Let's see if price continues to retrace. {image} {image}

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Quoting Badger1

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Thanks for the heads up on long term aud/nzd earlier In the thread. I'm think 1.142 as target based on the fibs. What do you think VP badge {image}:

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Quoting 1 in 1 out

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This levels seen a bit action. A value point over many years. {image}

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