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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #14,641
  • May 30, 2014 2:45am May 30, 2014 2:45am
EU volume profiles

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  • #14,642
  • May 30, 2014 2:54am May 30, 2014 2:54am
EU


volume distributions

see comments on chart

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  • #14,643
  • May 30, 2014 3:32am May 30, 2014 3:32am
Quoting infinitus
EU Playing field and virgin POC's {image}
It will be a while before I can make sense of all these numbers, but on a simpler note, waiting for EU to go below 1.3550 to off load a few short positions I am holding since last meeting of ECB.

Ideally would like to see 1.3520 and below before the next weeks ECB meeting.

Also would like to know your opinion about GJ, UJ and Gold (XAU/USD) if you have any analysis. Much appreciated.
  • #14,644
  • May 30, 2014 4:47am May 30, 2014 4:47am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} It will be a while before I can make sense of all these numbers, but on a simpler note, waiting for EU to go below 1.3550 to off load a few short positions I am holding since last meeting of ECB. Ideally would like to see 1.3520 and below before the next weeks ECB meeting. Also would like to know your opinion about GJ, UJ and Gold (XAU/USD) if you have any analysis. Much appreciated.
Hi Workingforex,

above detailed analysis I do only for EU, since I do trade this on all TF's regularly.


Regarding Gold you can see my EW count here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08#post7498208

Regarding UJ:

have no strong EW opinion at the moment. Will have a look at it over the weekend. So stay tuned....


Regarding GJ:

I do not trade this pair
  • #14,645
  • May 30, 2014 4:51am May 30, 2014 4:51am
Pretty numbers from Japan economy today, especially CPI. That is what happens when you start QE in country without having reserve currency where inflation is exported. It kicks you so hard even banks get worried. And that is what is incoming from EU QE soon. Wellcome high prices on gas, food and energy, but hey there will always be enough economists on national TV stations to point into rising stock market for "positive" effect of QE. Along with maybe rising GDP - hand to hand with rising debt.

Some view on Gold, weekly price structure heavily bearish:
http://prntscr.com/3nzdau
  • #14,646
  • May 30, 2014 5:01am May 30, 2014 5:01am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} It will be a while before I can make sense of all these numbers, but on a simpler note, waiting for EU to go below 1.3550 to off load a few short positions I am holding since last meeting of ECB. Ideally would like to see 1.3520 and below before the next weeks ECB meeting. Also would like to know your opinion about GJ, UJ and Gold (XAU/USD) if you have any analysis. Much appreciated.


POC and Virgin POC


a POC (Point of Control) is the level, where Price was traded with huge volume (inside a distribution: the point of biggest volume).

normally the POC's get retested in the following periods


a virgin POC is a POC, that has not been retested so far. Virgin POC's have a fairly huge attraction and may be touched in the future
  • #14,647
  • May 30, 2014 5:38am May 30, 2014 5:38am
Meanwhile buying came in on gold, shorts are out of sight for now.
http://prntscr.com/3nzppg

Shorted GCHF at 1.500
  • #14,648
  • May 30, 2014 6:03am May 30, 2014 6:03am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} POC and Virgin POC a POC (Point of Control) is the level, where Price was traded with huge volume (inside a distribution: the point of biggest volume). normally the POC's get retested in the following periods a virgin POC is a POC, that has not been retested so far. Virgin POC's have a fairly huge attraction and may be touched in the future

Thanx for that, will keep that in mind, also will go over them in detail over the weekend. Any suggested reading would be welcome. Much appreciated, regards.
  • #14,649
  • May 30, 2014 7:51am May 30, 2014 7:51am
Hit SL before on EU shorts covered them with GCAD thankfully, but GU went bad too -22 pips there. Did better trading trough night sleeping and letting Gold hit its TP than trough day daytrading.

EDIT: Hit TP on GCHF short +15.

GCHF long term view is down due to bearish structure:
http://prntscr.com/3o0whr
  • #14,650
  • Edited 9:32am May 30, 2014 9:18am | Edited 9:32am
EU seem bottoming, 3600 is long-term support... OR it may ranging within 3600 - 3700 area for weeks or month,
whatever it is I'm quit sure downward pressure is drying-up.

Any idea ?
  • #14,651
  • May 30, 2014 9:32am May 30, 2014 9:32am
Quoting andexQ
EU seem bottoming, 3600 is long-term support... OR it may sideways within 3600 - 3700 area for weeks or month, whatever it is I'm quit sure downward pressure is drying-up. Any idea ?
Yeh that up rally was somehow too strong, even that market structure is still bearish its just not reliable anymore for shorts.
  • #14,652
  • May 30, 2014 10:45am May 30, 2014 10:45am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} Thanx for that, will keep that in mind, also will go over them in detail over the weekend. Any suggested reading would be welcome. Much appreciated, regards.
Try this one for the basics of the profiles

http://www.earnforex.com/forex-e-boo...et_Profile.pdf


Can not hurt to know the basics



Keep in mind:

my system is quiet different. I only do use volume profiles of various timeframes. Each profile looks 32 periods back to gather the data.

That means:

32 x 15 min
32x 60 min
32x 240 min
32x daily
32x weekly
32x monthly

In doing this we not only have a fractal approach, but also we have the volume profiles in sync with my Murrey math (which also looks back 32 periods)


The most interesting places in the profiles are the no-business-zones (or low volume zones, or low volume nodes LVN). Price had no business in the past in this areas, and most of the time price gets rejected when it arrives those levels again.

On the other hand we have the high volume zones (or high volume nodes HVN, or POC's). At this levels trades took place, at the POC;s with the most volume. Many traders agreed on price here. Such levels have a great attraction too.

Some traders think, that the HVN do have significance as S/R-zones. But this is wrong. They have attraction, yes. But the S/R-zones are normally defined by the LVN.

Understand it like this:

in an auction process traders agree on price or do not. There is the low zone where sellers are not more willing to give away, and there are the high zones where buyers are not willing to buy anymore. Here are the LVN and the HVN defined.

In the zone in between the traders agree more or less on price, and ideally a Gaussian distribution is established
  • #14,653
  • May 30, 2014 11:15am May 30, 2014 11:15am
Quoting infinitus
Hmmm, difficult situation at the moment in EU I am offsetting some of my long term shorts here with some longs 30% of my shorts are offset by longs (pseudohedging) now @ 3592 either we have here an ending diagonal wave 5 in a bigger wave 1 (down), or are already in wave 3 down. In this wave 3 down we may then have developed a leading diagonal subwave 1. Very hard to count......

maybe premature, but I close above taken longs from 3592 now here @ 36401

and wait for next chance
  • #14,654
  • Edited 11:53am May 30, 2014 11:22am | Edited 11:53am
Couple Fined $746 For The Crime Of Feeding Homeless People In Florida Park


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...e-florida-park




WTF




Fuc! the US governement!!!!




Come on, brave people of the USA, is this really that what you want your democratically elected people to do????
  • #14,655
  • May 30, 2014 11:28am May 30, 2014 11:28am
Quoting infinitus
Couple Fined $746 For The Crime Of Feeding Homeless People In Florida Park http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...e-florida-park WTF Fuc! the US governement!!!! Come on, brave people of the USA, is this really that what you want your democratically elected people do????
Fuck these bastards ... this is so wrong what is happening in this world.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #14,656
  • May 30, 2014 11:52am May 30, 2014 11:52am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Fuck these bastards ... this is so wrong what is happening in this world.
Sic transit gloria mundi!!!
  • #14,657
  • May 30, 2014 12:09pm May 30, 2014 12:09pm
EU EW proposal 1h TF


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  • #14,658
  • May 30, 2014 12:20pm May 30, 2014 12:20pm
Quoting infinitus
EU EW proposal 1h TF {image}
I agree ... today upmove have been a simple 3W to 1.236 fib ... so still corrective

As per my counts ... we could have 2 paths ...

As long as RSI divergence still there on H1 graphs ... we are facing another 3W downmove (H1) to 1.3550-1.3522 zone

Alternative view it's a retrace to 1.3617-1.35816 ... and fly up

Monday-Tuesday will tell us ... witch one
  • #14,659
  • May 30, 2014 12:25pm May 30, 2014 12:25pm
Quoting rbetancor
{quote} I agree ... today upmove have been a simple 3W to 1.236 fib ... so still corrective As per my counts ... we could have 2 paths ... As long as RSI divergence still there on H1 graphs ... we are facing another 3W downmove (H1) to 1.3550-1.3522 zone Alternative view it's a retrace to 1.3617-1.35816 ... and fly up Monday-Tuesday will tell us ... witch one
  • #14,660
  • May 30, 2014 12:40pm May 30, 2014 12:40pm
Gona watch closely what you guys have to say for EU direction in next 2 days as i am complety without bias on current move.
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