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  • #521
  • May 29, 2014 10:55am May 29, 2014 10:55am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} Glad you liked it.
Dam near ruined my keyboard spitting coffee when I saw it. Still cracks me up!! If nothing else bro, I have a really strong sense of humor.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #522
  • May 29, 2014 10:56am May 29, 2014 10:56am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Gotcha! .. Maybe you can pick up a few things from some of the "down in the trenches" day traders along the way. IMHO, that's what this place is all about.
sure! Sounds good bro!
  • #523
  • May 29, 2014 11:01am May 29, 2014 11:01am
potential wolfe wave structure on D1 XPT USD. Some decent downside offered.
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  • #524
  • May 29, 2014 11:09am May 29, 2014 11:09am
position traders interested to profit from upcoming reveral in USDSEK pay close attention.

USD SEK looks set to post a DB top @ 6.8-6.9 in the coming weeks.
  • #525
  • May 29, 2014 11:24am May 29, 2014 11:24am
nasdaq getting really close to the strong resistance zone on HTF monthly charts. We had a run of over 3 000 points since 2008, and it's almost a steep run up the hill.
I'd expect a sell off within 2-4 months.
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  • #526
  • May 29, 2014 11:48am May 29, 2014 11:48am
my take on mid-term gold prices - we are going to test 1200 if broken all the way to 1050.

see below - motnh chart with markup. Price action was rejected @ year pivot and then @ quarter pivot. Overall price structure is bearish.

implication for aud usd - bearish. Will move below 9200, once 9200 cleared, next up 9000 and finally test of 8800.
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  • #527
  • May 29, 2014 11:55am May 29, 2014 11:55am
S&P does not have much room left to rally further up. 30-40 points before we probably trigger a sell off of 8-10%.
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  • #528
  • May 29, 2014 12:02pm May 29, 2014 12:02pm
Guys, if we actually look @ AUD CAD month chart, we can see non-ideal wolfe wave, which did not result in a sell off yet, however it made AUD CAD top out and establish a market top.

I see very solid/major downside on AUDCAD. AUDCAD also strongly correlated with AUD USD, so this in turn should send AUD USD lower.
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  • #529
  • May 29, 2014 12:13pm May 29, 2014 12:13pm
aud usd month end chart recap.

guys since we are closing month tmrw last trading session of the month, i'm fairly confident that we will close aud usd month with a 2 spinning tops @ key sup/res level. This confirms rejection. Price was also rejected @ 9450, which is year pivot in 2014.
this means that bulls were not able to take price above 9450 and therefore bears are currently in control overall.

my projected downside on aud usd is 7900-8200 ultimately (over 1 000 points from current bid). This will take 3-4 months at least.

aud usd can move up/down 400 points every month, so at current bid 9300 it will take 3-5 months of bearish price action to reach the highlighted target.

disclosure: I'm currently short aud usd and nzd usd via put options. This is a position trade and will last 2-4 months.
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  • #530
  • May 29, 2014 12:28pm May 29, 2014 12:28pm
Quoting ruffryders
gbp nzd long @ bid 9730 sl 9660 tp 250 points.
out. Flat. Time is not right yet.
  • #531
  • May 29, 2014 12:51pm May 29, 2014 12:51pm
Quoting ruffryders
aud usd month end chart recap. guys since we are closing month tmrw last trading session of the month, i'm fairly confident that we will close aud usd month with a 2 spinning tops @ key sup/res level. This confirms rejection. Price was also rejected @ 9450, which is year pivot in 2014. this means that bulls were not able to take price above 9450 and therefore bears are currently in control overall. my projected downside on aud usd is 7900-8200 ultimately (over 1 000 points from current bid). This will take 3-4 months at least. aud usd can move up/down...
I think you are developing bias too strong.By projecting numbers and direction you are less likely to take advatage what is happening objectivily.
I can easily see AU going to 95 again
On weekly we are in range (yellow box around 618) To truly bear trend we need break of 92 50% for targets 79-82
As you can see price is within range of up trend in general.
Regards
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #532
  • May 29, 2014 10:42pm May 29, 2014 10:42pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I think you are developing bias too strong.By projecting numbers and direction you are less likely to take advatage what is happening objectivily. I can easily see AU going to 95 again On weekly we are in range (yellow box around 618) To truly bear trend we need break of 92 50% for targets 79-82 As you can see price is within range of up trend in general. Regards {image}
Davit, technically, I see what you mean. However, trading below Year Pivot @ 9450 and having not tested 9075 quarter pivot, chances are for the AUDUSD sell off.

Fundumentally, AUD central bank is neutral, China is cooling off, global metals and commods are taking a chill, S&P and Nasdaq entering record territory, so chances are that indexes will also sell off this summer. 10 year yields pushing lower. Gold prices are crumbling and below year and quarter pivot. COT positioning @ extreme both 26/52 weeks.

I'm OK with holding AUD/NU position through summer, where I see big probability that both will drop 400-700 points at least from current levels.

Finally, below is AU weekly, I don't see AU taking out that sup turn res.
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  • #533
  • May 29, 2014 11:52pm May 29, 2014 11:52pm
new trades entered

GBP JPY LONG @ 170.20 SL 169.80 TP 172
GBP AUD LONG @ 1.7990 SL 60 TP 200
GBP NZD LONG @ 1.9717 SL 60 TP 200
  • #534
  • May 29, 2014 11:55pm May 29, 2014 11:55pm
gbp jpy long trade rationale:

bear shark on h4.
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  • #535
  • May 30, 2014 12:06am May 30, 2014 12:06am
Quoting ruffryders
new trades entered GBP JPY LONG @ 170.20 SL 169.80 TP 172 GBP AUD LONG @ 1.7990 SL 60 TP 200 GBP NZD LONG @ 1.9717 SL 60 TP 200
HERE ARE MY ACTUAL TRADES IN LIVE ACCOUNT, SO THAT NOONE GIVES ME BS.
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  • #536
  • May 30, 2014 1:01am May 30, 2014 1:01am
Ok, so since I was moved to Commercial Content / given commercial member status. That's all for me on this Forum. Good luck traders! Twee, this was a big mistake that you made.
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  • #537
  • May 30, 2014 1:40am May 30, 2014 1:40am
So what bro. What does it matter what section you're in?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #538
  • May 30, 2014 1:55am May 30, 2014 1:55am
right thats strange maybe the other place is the reason ,,

Quoting ruffryders
Ok, so since I was moved to Commercial Content / given commercial member status. That's all for me on this Forum. Good luck traders! Twee, this was a big mistake that you made. {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #539
  • May 30, 2014 2:02am May 30, 2014 2:02am
Im thinking ,that gbp xx ,is very risky long R ,
maybe cause I'm short
but I can see weekly is big red right now ,gbp aud
overall I think you could have long term direction ,but from here its down ,
really not to be too critical ,cause as I said some of your knowledge is beyond me ,but you already charted ,weak cable and nzd usd ,
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #540
  • May 30, 2014 2:07am May 30, 2014 2:07am
Quoting Bones
right thats strange maybe the other place is the reason ,, {quote}
yeah, that's allright B, I'll focus on my own Forum.

I hear you on GBP, GBP is weak overall, however upon closer inspection you have a bear shark on H4 GU.
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