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  • #3,801
  • May 28, 2014 11:35am May 28, 2014 11:35am
Anyone in for a spread play on DDD or twitter? Both gaped since last close.... Any ideas what would be the smartest play?
  • #3,802
  • May 28, 2014 11:37am May 28, 2014 11:37am
Quoting njr
{quote} Hey BW - Yeah, it certainly seems that way.....whenever there has been a little pullback the bulls eventually recover control and take the market higher. It seems the "the SPX has hit 1900 euphoria" is now recruiting more bulls to push even higher. Next week I see two potential catalyst to move this market one way or another: 1) Mr Draghi's actions at the ECB meeting - there are thoughts he'll introduce some form of QE program and 2) NFP's without having any excuse of the polar vortex skewing data! There could be some big gains on the back...
Personally I think NFP is a load of cack, it doesn't matter what it prints, the jobs are mostly crap jobs and part-time jobs. But we all know that what I think means nowt; it's what the big boys think. And even then, is it really what they think, or just what they want us to think they think
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,803
  • May 28, 2014 11:38am May 28, 2014 11:38am
Quoting weirdgod
Anyone in for a spread play on DDD or twitter? Both gaped since last close.... Any ideas what would be the smartest play?
If you like gambling, sure, why not.
I'd rather not touch TWTR with a ten foot bargepole though. DDD, no idea what it is.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,804
  • May 28, 2014 2:40pm May 28, 2014 2:40pm
Quoting weirdgod
Anyone in for a spread play on DDD or twitter? Both gaped since last close.... Any ideas what would be the smartest play?
I looked at TWTR and I didn't like the options pricing on it so I didn't see anything I'd want to do. I just took a brief look though - calendar spreads in Jun/July - credit calls slightly bullish with sold strikes otm around $40 - didn't like it.

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderd...rrons&ru=yahoo

looked at doing a put credit spread on DDD - Jun 21 $40/$43 credits $0.27 & you could go wider for more, but I don't like that either.

I am more looking to sell calls fr credit and I find it easier to do that on more expensive stocks.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,805
  • May 28, 2014 3:03pm May 28, 2014 3:03pm
Bollocks. I just thought I'd take a look at AAPL, saw that it put in a swing day (went higher, closed lower), immediately thought (mentally rubbing hands avariciously), let's take a look at buying some OTM puts, and then looked at the time. 9pm UK.

Bollocks.

Hopefully they goose stocks again tomorrow.

Edit, I didn't even read it (still haven't), but this is what caused me to check the AAPL chart: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2240...ak-before-long
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,806
  • May 28, 2014 3:13pm May 28, 2014 3:13pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I am more looking to sell calls fr credit and I find it easier to do that on more expensive stocks.

yep, AAPL a good one. Also, NFLX, whose recent run looks a little played:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,807
  • May 28, 2014 3:26pm May 28, 2014 3:26pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yep, AAPL a good one. Also, NFLX, whose recent run looks a little played: {image} {image}
NFLX, I'm not sure I'd touch it. Probably too many shorts.
But AAPL, probably the reverse - AAPLoholics probably foaming at the mouth with greed. Closed on 23 April at 524.7. Closed today at 624.08. Er....ok then.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,808
  • May 28, 2014 3:57pm May 28, 2014 3:57pm
Tomorrow's calendar - is that -0.6% prelim GDP forecast a misprint? That will be smoked, I'd bet on a strong market reaction to a much higher number.

Also, nat gas has been on a strong rebound. I might do a 5/30 UNG $25/$26 long strangle for $0.18 or less debit, with UNG closed today at $25.46.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-05-28_calendar.png Size: 42 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,809
  • May 28, 2014 8:01pm May 28, 2014 8:01pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Personally I think NFP is a load of cack, it doesn't matter what it prints, the jobs are mostly crap jobs and part-time jobs.
lol, it's not as bad as all that, BW. The US of A still has a huge, dynamic economy. The sad thing is that the workforce is under-prepared for many of the good jobs that go unfilled, some say 4mio or so. The reason the "recovery" is broadly excoriated as no recovery is that housing has not roared back. Housing and related industries employ the legions of guys with little education. The Fed knows this, of course, and one may presume the ^TNX moving back toward 2.00% is by their design. Not gonna work, though, I fear...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,810
  • May 29, 2014 1:36am May 29, 2014 1:36am
speaking of AAPL, have any of you had luck holding options through a stock split?

http://www.simpleroptions.com/public...d5cf7f31ccbf45
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,811
  • May 29, 2014 2:30am May 29, 2014 2:30am
Quoting The Fool
Tomorrow's calendar - is that -0.6% prelim GDP forecast a misprint? That will be smoked, I'd bet on a strong market reaction to a much higher number. Also, nat gas has been on a strong rebound. I might do a 5/30 UNG $25/$26 long strangle for $0.18 or less debit, with UNG closed today at $25.46..... {image}
Looks correct.....http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/

I agree TF, it'll probably be 'smoked' and we'll probably see a pop higher.....
  • #3,812
  • May 29, 2014 2:38am May 29, 2014 2:38am
Quoting njr
{quote} Looks correct.....http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/ I agree TF, it'll probably be 'smoked' and we'll probably see a pop higher.....
morning njr. I'm looking for a big down day for gold if the US indices catch afire. Gold flirting with the $1250 level overnight....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,813
  • May 29, 2014 2:48am May 29, 2014 2:48am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} morning njr. I'm looking for a big down day for gold if the US indices catch afire. Gold flirting with the $1250 level overnight....
Looks probable that you might get what you wished for Best of luck!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101711736
  • #3,814
  • May 29, 2014 2:53am May 29, 2014 2:53am
...when there's blood in the street...Oct $30 calls are $0.40....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,815
  • May 29, 2014 4:01am May 29, 2014 4:01am
just took a short on EUR/USD at 1.3618 with a s/l at 1.3625 while I've got nothing to do until stocks open later
  • #3,816
  • May 29, 2014 6:02am May 29, 2014 6:02am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} lol, it's not as bad as all that, BW. The US of A still has a huge, dynamic economy. The sad thing is that the workforce is under-prepared for many of the good jobs that go unfilled, some say 4mio or so. The reason the "recovery" is broadly excoriated as no recovery is that housing has not roared back. Housing and related industries employ the legions of guys with little education. The Fed knows this, of course, and one may presume the ^TNX moving back toward 2.00% is by their design. Not gonna work, though, I fear...
TF, you're right. The U.S. does have a huge, dynamic economy. I'm not slagging off the U.S.; I'm just pointing out the relative weakness of the U.S.'s recovery compared to its prior recoveries. The 2002-6/7 recovery was bad enough - that was probably the first to be called the "jobless recovery".
Well, this one is orders of magnitude worse.
And it's the same in the U.K. The U.K.'s so-called recovery is I think down to a number of factors
a) some reform of the welfare system
b) the tens of billions of pounds of PPI refunds paid out by the biggest retail banks to their customers for a loan insurance mis-selling scandal that lasted years, but which is now starting to trail off; this money it is believed has gone straight back out and been spent by the recipients thereof
c) massive uncontrolled immigration from eastern Europe

Notably, whilst GDP has gone up in the UK in the last couple of years, GDP/head has remained stubbornly flat, significantly below the pre-crisis peak.
I think GDP/head is probably stagnant in the US also.

I don't know, maybe things are starting to get going "under the hood". But I doubt it. I think the forces involved are too powerful; too deeply entrenched.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,817
  • May 29, 2014 7:32am May 29, 2014 7:32am
Quoting njr
{quote} Looks correct.....http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/ I agree TF, it'll probably be 'smoked' and we'll probably see a pop higher.....
Wow - GDP -1%....wasn't expecting that! Interesting to see where the market moves today and if the bulls will trump the bears (again)....
  • #3,818
  • May 29, 2014 9:05am May 29, 2014 9:05am
Quoting Boy Wonder
Bollocks. I just thought I'd take a look at AAPL, saw that it put in a swing day (went higher, closed lower), immediately thought (mentally rubbing hands avariciously), let's take a look at buying some OTM puts, and then looked at the time. 9pm UK. Bollocks. Hopefully they goose stocks again tomorrow. Edit, I didn't even read it (still haven't), but this is what caused me to check the AAPL chart: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2240...ak-before-long
Got myself some AAPL action. Thank you Mr Market (I think).
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,819
  • May 29, 2014 11:06am May 29, 2014 11:06am
I'm taking a punt on UNG for a one day expiration or tomorrows expiry on natural gas. With it being the final day of May and we're heading into summer I think the spread traders will be rolling put spread contracts into next month.

UNG is trading at $25.58 and the $25.50 put is at 17c or $17 per contract and it has my attention, not putting to much into this as the 50 day ma is around 25.23 area.

The trade is cheap enough

United States Natural Gas (UNG)
-NYSEArca
25.58 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.11(0.43%) 16:56 - Nasdaq Real Time Price

UNG May 2014 25.500 put (UNG140530P00025500)
-OPR
0.17 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.10(37.04%) 16:49
  • #3,820
  • May 29, 2014 1:36pm May 29, 2014 1:36pm
Quoting The Fool
...when there's blood in the street...Oct $30 calls are $0.40.... {image}
did it, bought Oct DSW $30 calls for $0.45.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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