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Can the Euro survive?

  • #41
  • May 27, 2014 12:04pm May 27, 2014 12:04pm
Quoting jmn5611
I guessed this thread would pick up after the Eurozone elections. Can the EU be pluralistic society. We in the US elected a black president. Can any European country say anything similar?

We had a gay foreign minister.
And the mayor of Berlin is also gay.

Sorry, there were no divorced black gay woman with a beard of choice!

Come on people, make peace, not war!
  • #42
  • May 27, 2014 12:08pm May 27, 2014 12:08pm
Quoting jen101
{quote} Lol. I don't know much about US politics but I guess they have Hilary Clinton they could elect... UKIP is the closest there is to Thatcherism. The Tories now aren't real Tories anymore, languishing somewhere around the wet middle.
I think the problems lie more within the governance than with immigration. It can't be any other way.

If you took the net financial effect of immigration in the UK it would most likely be positive, but even if it wasn't it would still be far less than the net effect of financial mismanagement from politicians which leaves the country with huge debts that need to be paid for by taxes. This dwarfs the negative effect of any 'scroungers' as you put it. So if you are angry with immigration, you are angry with the wrong people I'm afraid.

However, many people who are unhappy in their life want someone to blame, and following a crisis and some measure of austerity, they will look to blame 'outsiders'. I'm relatively happy with my life, so if anything I think that immmigration is too difficult in the UK, for those with skills and willing to work, we should allow more than we do.

The problem of benefits is a separate problem, which while a real problem, is something that is constructed by politicians, and can be fixed by politicians, except that it won't be popular to fix. A large % of the UK population wants to keep their benefits, they want more benefits, they just dont' want others to have them. Much of this % is british, not immigrants.

The tories have improved things in this regard. Not enough, but it has improved. They've lost quite a bit of the electorate for that though.

The cycle continues from boom to bust. We will have financially sound control for some years (or at least better than before), then the populace will be unhappy with that and elect someone who will 'make their life better', like Labour, then the borrowing will get worse and the debt will get higher. It goes on until collapse.
  • #43
  • May 27, 2014 12:10pm May 27, 2014 12:10pm
Quoting mvp77
{quote} We had a gay foreign minister. And the mayor of Berlin is also gay. Sorry, there were no divorced black gay woman with a beard of choice! Come on people, make peace, not war!
We have a Conservative MP who was caught in bed with 3 Brazillian rent boys and raped one of them. I think he got done for buying drugs from them. Anyway, he's got his job back.
  • #44
  • May 27, 2014 12:10pm May 27, 2014 12:10pm
To answer the question at hand, yes i think the Euro will survive in one form or another until 2050, its bound to take a few more hits between now and then but for Eurozone members its benefits far outweigh the negatives (centralized control ie Germany). Im from Ireland and have lived in the Uk and the US as well as Ireland in the past 10 years. While the recent European Elections has led to a shift of voting to non centre parties (UKIP and NF in particular), their economies will be stronger as part of a single European Market. It is hard to distinguish whether this is a sea change in party politics Europe wide or a massive protest vote, the answer probably lies closer to the latter.

With the bailouts and subsequent austerity measures across Europe its easy to see this as something that is an inherent problem of the ESM, but in reality all this is more likely growing pains (very painful ones at that) associated with countries establishing themselves as part of the Eurozone and subsequently seeing that credit was more freely and cheaply available. While there is still a long road ahead to recovery, I really cant see this happening again. No country could collectively be that stupid. But then again people find it hard to think straight when there's money involved so you never know what could happen, but id be surprised.....
  • #45
  • May 27, 2014 12:21pm May 27, 2014 12:21pm
Back to topic. Has there ever been a time when people didn't say the EURO would fail? I remember before it was introduced it was suggested it would fail, when it was introduced it was slammed by the media as not working, during the credit crunch the media said it would fail, when Spain, italy, ireland, portugal all had problems I read the Euro would fail. Yet it's still here! Earlier this month it hit its highest value against the dollar in 2 years or more.

Why is everyone so quick to write it off when it's proved the doubters wrong multiple times.
  • #46
  • May 27, 2014 12:39pm May 27, 2014 12:39pm
Quoting SupraSense
Back to topic. Has there ever been a time when people didn't say the EURO would fail? I remember before it was introduced it was suggested it would fail, when it was introduced it was slammed by the media as not working, during the credit crunch the media said it would fail, when Spain, italy, ireland, portugal all had problems I read the Euro would fail. Yet it's still here! Earlier this month it hit its highest value against the dollar in 2 years or more. Why is everyone so quick to write it off when it's proved the doubters wrong multiple times....
Great response Supra, where in the Eurozone do you hail? I see a lot of Brits have responded to the thread.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #47
  • May 27, 2014 12:40pm May 27, 2014 12:40pm
Quoting JBserious
To answer the question at hand, yes i think the Euro will survive in one form or another until 2050, its bound to take a few more hits between now and then but for Eurozone members its benefits far outweigh the negatives (centralized control ie Germany). Im from Ireland and have lived in the Uk and the US as well as Ireland in the past 10 years. While the recent European Elections has led to a shift of voting to non centre parties (UKIP and NF in particular), their economies will be stronger as part of a single European Market. It is hard to distinguish...
You do not find the wave of nationalism and anti EU sentiment a worry?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #48
  • May 27, 2014 12:41pm May 27, 2014 12:41pm
"Can the Euro survive?"

what happened Germany after WW_II , no worries
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
  • #49
  • May 27, 2014 12:49pm May 27, 2014 12:49pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} You do not find the wave of nationalism and anti EU sentiment a worry?

Elections to the European Parliament is totally overrated by you.

Most EU countries would not vote in national parliamentary elections so.

Especially France and GB.
  • #50
  • May 27, 2014 4:10pm May 27, 2014 4:10pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} You do not find the wave of nationalism and anti EU sentiment a worry?
Not really to be honest, its not like im standing steadfast behind centerist parties, ( I welcome the dilution) but I feel its more to do with the insular attitude that a lot of my fellow European countries have. When things go wrong you blame the outsiders. Thats why I see this as a protest vote.

Parties like UKIP stand on an anti EU platform but what plans do they have for their economy if they were to move outside of the common market? They would lose large multinationals who base themselves in Europe because of the large market they have access to for one. Renegotiating the terms of their EU membership is much more beneficial than outright withdrawal.
  • #51
  • May 27, 2014 5:51pm May 27, 2014 5:51pm
Quoting neil324
{quote} Nigel Farage & UKIP have said they want a system like Australia, not stop it, 'fact'. And the electorate agree with them, 'fact'.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/alanwhite/21...re-voting-ukip
tradewith60
  • #52
  • May 27, 2014 6:00pm May 27, 2014 6:00pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} http://www.buzzfeed.com/alanwhite/21...re-voting-ukip
  • #53
  • Edited 12:51am May 28, 2014 12:29am | Edited 12:51am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} http://www.buzzfeed.com/alanwhite/21...re-voting-ukip


I'm not a UKIP supporter but funny how the opposition have literally sharted their pants over the rise of UKIP. The opposition would argue Australians are racist! Nowt wrong with their system and makes total sense for UK to adopt especially for a small overpopulated island. "There is an underlying evil within UKIP" so says Tony Blair, (who pulled the trigger in Iraq I wonder, doh!). What's that saying, "Lies, Damn Lies and Tony BLiar". Not sure about UKIPs other policies though esp. environment (much right wing ignorance so can expect more to come).

So the EU have announced an elite team of bureaucrats to monitor the banks in Europe. Given the corruption of MEPs surely we need someone watching them, watching the banks!
  • #54
  • May 28, 2014 1:44am May 28, 2014 1:44am
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} I think the problems lie more within the governance than with immigration. It can't be any other way. If you took the net financial effect of immigration in the UK it would most likely be positive, but even if it wasn't it would still be far less than the net effect of financial mismanagement from politicians which leaves the country with huge debts that need to be paid for by taxes. This dwarfs the negative effect of any 'scroungers' as you put it. So if you are angry with immigration, you are angry with the wrong people I'm afraid. However,...

The reality is that many migrants work in more wealthy countries, purely to send money back to their families where the cost of living is cheaper. Not only is their income not recirculated back within the local economy they are working within, but they are prepared to live in such poor squalid conditions for far less pay than the same skilled person who attempts to make the country they 'live' in their 'home' (migrants or non migrants alike).

How can such people compete on the same level when they do not want to live in squalid conditions as the 'temporary' migrants do, but want to support their family in the host country, buying into the host country's cost of living, supporting the host country's banks with mortgages? The question that should be asked is, how prevalent is this imbalance?

We hear all the time industries closing down in Europe to operate in Asia for no other reason than to cut costs and make more profit at the cost of jobs and livelihoods in the west. This is a fact of globalisation. Why do politicians turn a blind eye to the fact that it also works the other way? The argument of 'welfare tourism' spouted by the far right is upheld as bigoted and racist by the major parties. But this merely hides the issue of job competition and displacement created by a migrant subculture - living squalid, sending money home. The issue is a working class issue easily rejected by the middle classes out of ignorance and by the upper classes out of the need for cheap labour.
  • #55
  • May 28, 2014 2:14am May 28, 2014 2:14am
Quoting jen101
{quote} What?! The European Parliament is not democratic. No-one voted for Van Rompuy! http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...06#post7487206
No one voted for Van Rompuy? Are you sure? Are you taking your facts from a Nigel Farage rant?

Nigel Farage speaks well, but the content of his speech could be likened to schoolboy playground taunts. In the link which you kindly provided he calls Van Rompuy "a downgraded bank clerk", Belgium is a "non-country". To be honest, I'm ashamed of him and of the English people who have voted for him.
Gone to a better place
  • #56
  • May 28, 2014 4:53am May 28, 2014 4:53am
Quoting smikester
{quote} No one voted for Van Rompuy? Are you sure? Are you taking your facts from a Nigel Farage rant? Nigel Farage speaks well, but the content of his speech could be likened to schoolboy playground taunts. In the link which you kindly provided he calls Van Rompuy "a downgraded bank clerk", Belgium is a "non-country". To be honest, I'm ashamed of him and of the English people who have voted for him.
Think what you like but we'll be out of Europe in a couple of years. The masses have spoken, we'll get our referendum now.
  • #57
  • Edited 6:00am May 28, 2014 5:43am | Edited 6:00am
Quoting Porkpie
{quote} The reality is that many migrants work in more wealthy countries, purely to send money back to their families where the cost of living is cheaper. Not only is their income not recirculated back within the local economy they are working within, but they are prepared to live in such poor squalid conditions for far less pay than the same skilled person who attempts to make the country they 'live' in their 'home' (migrants or non migrants alike). How can such people compete on the same level when they do not want to live in squalid conditions...
They work for money and a better life for them and their family. Same as most of us.

If they want to send money abroad, that's their right. If I go on an expensive holiday, I'm doing exactly the same. What next, stop everyone from taking holidays out of the UK because we need to re-circulate the money? Or what about savers who aren't recirculating the money? Lets ban savings too! Please don't be this silly, I mean think a bit deeper for goodness sake. If you've earned your money, nobody has the right to tell you what you can spend it on or where. The government already takes in huge amounts in taxes for everyone who works and everyone who buys anything.

If someone is willing to work for less than the same skilled person, then it's no wonder they are more likely employed. That's part of capitalism. If you think wages are too low, then it's up to governance to raise the minimum wage. Raising that may reduce jobs though, so it's a catch-22. You say many do not want to live in squalid conditions like the temporary migrants do. Again you've displayed a complete lack of thought here. Nobody WANTS to live in squalid conditions.

The world is competitive. You either are willing to compete and do whatever is required, or you're not, and would prefer to moan about 'outsiders' to excuse yourself. I have very little sympathy for that. There's no entitlement to a job, you have to be willing to work hard for the market rate of pay. Otherwise you only have yourself to blame.

As for the last paragraph, yes many jobs have been outsourced to other countries for cost reasons. That is nothing to do with immigration to this country though. If you don't think it should be allowed, again, take it up with your politician.

I was born in UK, working class. I worked hard and made my way up into a good job. I'm sure that everyone else here could do so too, and could even do better if they really tried. Or they can make excuses and vote UKIP.
  • #58
  • May 28, 2014 5:51am May 28, 2014 5:51am
The survival of the Euro will not hinge on whether or not the UK withdraws from the EU. Given they have their own economic sovereignty as it is, all it will achieve is imposing barriers to trade against themselves. This is not to say that theyd be doomed to failure, they could thrive as an island economy. But the re imposition of the barriers will change how they do business. Should Scotland gain Independence and apply to join the EU, it might cause a change in the UK's thinking.
  • #59
  • May 28, 2014 5:59am May 28, 2014 5:59am
Quoting JBserious
The survival of the Euro will not hinge on whether or not the UK withdraws from the EU. Given they have their own economic sovereignty as it is, all it will achieve is imposing barriers to trade against themselves. This is not to say that theyd be doomed to failure, they could thrive as an island economy. But the re imposition of the barriers will change how they do business. Should Scotland gain Independence and apply to join the EU, it might cause a change in the UK's thinking.
I wonder how the finances will be split if Scotland leaves the UK. Obviously the UK has debts, but some of that is down to Scottish people as well...so will they have to take on some of the debt? If not then I imagine the rest of the UK will keep all the UK's resources, like oil etc. The last article I read suggested that England subsidises Scotland, so althought Scotland might want independence, they may find themselves worse off financially.
  • #60
  • May 28, 2014 6:10am May 28, 2014 6:10am
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} I wonder how the finances will be split if Scotland leaves the UK. Obviously the UK has debts, but some of that is down to Scottish people as well...so will they have to take on some of the debt? If not then I imagine the rest of the UK will keep all the UK's resources, like oil etc. The last article I read suggested that England subsidises Scotland, so althought Scotland might want independence, they may find themselves worse off financially.
Scotland is relying on the rights to North Sea oil which could run out in 3-4 years. The Shetland isles will probably fight them for rights (and win) . The Scottish banks will re-locate to England. Scotland may not qualify to join the Euro. I think the rest of the UK should have a vote too as to whether we want to keep Scotland, lol.
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