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  • #3,721
  • Edited 4:31pm May 24, 2014 9:30am | Edited 4:31pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Did he make money? srt calculated the b/e as 33.87, HPQ closed 33.72, high of 34.09. I guess if he has a crystalball-o-matic he may have got that 34.09. Seems to me this market is a ticking time bomb, whether it be days or weeks or months, at the very latest.
well, maybe not after all. Hats off to Agarwal anway for putting his trade idea out there - got me thinking about the BWB's as a better way to trade the earnings blasts.

re: ticking bomb, yes, you look at some things and just say, "something's gotta give." Gold can't flatline forever, and I fancy a break down. And equities can't rise with treasurys forever, either, and I think we move back to a more normal correlation with equities moving up and T's down. I could be wrong about that, though, and could argue the other way. Despite the Friday S&P high, it's only 50 pts +/- from where it finished 2013, same idea for the Dow. I am watching IWM for a comeback....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,722
  • May 24, 2014 10:04am May 24, 2014 10:04am
Boy how did I miss SPLK? Still a long way down, though....

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...oks-ahead.aspx

Thursday
Splunk (NASDAQ: SPLK ) was a hot IPO two years ago, championing in the era of big data. However, the only thing that's been big lately is disappointment. Splunk shares have shed more than half of their value since peaking three months ago, part of the broader correction that has seen many former tech darlings retreat sharply this year. Splunk also helped seal its fate by putting out soft quarterly results last time out, making Thursday's performance that much more important.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,723
  • May 24, 2014 10:04pm May 24, 2014 10:04pm
I smell a bargain! ZNGA trading at $3.29, Sep $4.50 calls are just $0.16! Somebody bought 12,000+ of the $4.00's at $0.24....!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,724
  • May 24, 2014 11:39pm May 24, 2014 11:39pm
sound familiar?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspe...rtner=yahootix

" It has been a 30-year bull market for bonds. In order to be successful moving forward, investors need to be smarter and more flexible in their approach. It is the change in the interest rate trend we must consider as we view portfolio risk. The Fed and other central banks are doing all they can to create inflation and they are armed with considerable resolve. With interest rates near historical lows, it is inflation and rising rates that present considerable portfolio risk. It is time to tactically trade fixed income exposure. The bubble of all bubbles may just be in bonds. "
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,725
  • May 24, 2014 11:44pm May 24, 2014 11:44pm
something might happen....

http://www.marketpulse.com/20140523/...k-market-toes/

" Not many people have realized that the ECB is about to have its own version of the Fed's Jackson Hole forum this weekend. It will start on Sunday May 27th and will end next Tuesday May 29th. This will be an annual Forum on Central Banking and will include government officials, central bank governors, academics, journalists and financial market representatives, exchanging views on current policy issues. The first such forum will take place in Sintra, Portugal, Sunday-Tuesday.

This weekends ECB soiree could be a game changer. Depending on how open and aggressive Draghi will be, throw in the holiday Monday on either side of the pond could give us some volatility. Lack of liquidity will make some of the currency moves very interesting. "
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,726
  • May 25, 2014 7:24am May 25, 2014 7:24am
Quoting The Fool
sound familiar? http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspe...rtner=yahootix " It has been a 30-year bull market for bonds. In order to be successful moving forward, investors need to be smarter and more flexible in their approach. It is the change in the interest rate trend we must consider as we view portfolio risk. The Fed and other central banks are doing all they can to create inflation and they are armed with considerable resolve. With interest rates near historical...
Sound familiar, as in, change the record, they've been saying this for years and years and years and it hasn't worked?

There's no bubble in bonds, as far as I can tell. Japan is the salutary lesson for bond bears.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,727
  • May 25, 2014 7:30am May 25, 2014 7:30am
Quoting The Fool
I smell a bargain! ZNGA trading at $3.29, Sep $4.50 calls are just $0.16! Somebody bought 12,000+ of the $4.00's at $0.24....! {image}
Yeah I have no idea what ZNGA does except vaguely it's a tech or media stock or summat, no? Not something I would want to be long of when I'm expecting the market to get a haircut somewhere between now and 4Q.
Just looking at that chart, sorry to say would I have sold the 4.50's not bought them. IOW I think there is probably a reason why they are just 16c, but best of luck with it.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,728
  • May 25, 2014 8:44am May 25, 2014 8:44am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Sound familiar, as in, change the record, they've been saying this for years and years and years and it hasn't worked? There's no bubble in bonds, as far as I can tell. Japan is the salutary lesson for bond bears.
Exactly. However, I give you The Boy Who Cried Wolf.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,729
  • May 25, 2014 9:01am May 25, 2014 9:01am
I don't understand it either. But I'm old: I don't have a smart phone or a Facebock page. However, maybe we already got the tech/social media/biopharma stock haircut that was due and maybe bonds at 2-3-4% are not the cup of meat the greedy rentseeking classes are looking for and maybe there's no geopolitical or geofinancial reasons to argue for a broad riskoff sentiment to take hold in the markets? If the latter questions may be affirmed then maybe longing those beat down sectors could pay off? Seems already underway....

I'm looking for ZNGA to dip under $3 though.

Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Yeah I have no idea what ZNGA does except vaguely it's a tech or media stock or summat, no? Not something I would want to be long of when I'm expecting the market to get a haircut somewhere between now and 4Q. Just looking at that chart, sorry to say would I have sold the 4.50's not bought them. IOW I think there is probably a reason why they are just 16c, but best of luck with it.

" Zynga Inc. is a leading developer of the world's most popular social games that are played by more than 100 million monthly consumers. The company has created evergreen franchises such as FarmVille, Zynga Casino and Words With Friends. Zynga's NaturalMotion, an Oxford-based mobile game and technology developer, is the creator of hit mobile games in popular entertainment categories, including CSR Racing, CSR Classics and Clumsy Ninja. Zynga games have been played by more than 1 billion people around the world and are available on a number of global platforms including Apple iOS, Google Android, Facebook and Zynga.com "
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,730
  • May 25, 2014 9:23am May 25, 2014 9:23am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I'm expecting the market to get a haircut somewhere between now and 4Q.
Can you tell us why? Not that I think that's an ill-advised expectation, I could see it happen. The tapirs, of course. Maybe some catalysts come to bear: Ukraine civil war, euroskeptic ascendancy, China/Japan/Vietnam sparks, etc. But why do you think?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,731
  • May 25, 2014 10:02am May 25, 2014 10:02am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Can you tell us why? Not that I think that's an ill-advised expectation, I could see it happen. The tapirs, of course. Maybe some catalysts come to bear: Ukraine civil war, euroskeptic ascendancy, China/Japan/Vietnam sparks, etc. But why do you think?
The taper. The taper trumps everything. Every time QE has finished in the past, it has been accompanied by the markets puking. Is there any reason to think "This Time It's Different"? There are other clues, but they are subtle. The only question is in the timing. Like I said, tick tock, tick tock. The option sellers it seems to me are happy to take bears' put money for months and months and months until the day of reckoning, then they'll drop it so quick most will not react in time and will be buying puts when the SPX has dropped 60 points in 2-3 days. Of course by then IV will probably have doubled or tripled. One scenario is a gentle slope off during the summer; I don't know. I'm short but not massively because at the moment I'm playing a range and I'm not really expecting fireworks until the taper is done, finito.
Having said that, if they taper the taper, all bets are off, although the market might knee-jerk higher then dump as people think, shite, things are so bad they're not tapering. Also, the prospect of ECB largesse complicates matters, although generally most don't think that Fed- or BoE-like ECB QE is coming, for reasonable reasons (politics, ideology, necessity, efficacy).

Ukraine is a yawn, who cares, I don't; I thought it was a sideshow months ago and I still think it's a sideshow.
Eurosceptics in Europe, who cares, it's nothing (at least right now) in the grand scheme of things.
China's territorial sea grabbing; now that's something that could potentially blow up. Still, Obama is not a war-monger (thank the Lord). And really, neither China nor the U.S. wants to get into fisticuffs with each other. Do they?

All the above though, it's just the way I see it. I'm not so arrogant to believe that I can see the future and I will probably be catastrophically wrong; maybe SPX goes to 1980; that is a possibility at least; all we can do is read the tea leaves as best we can and be willing to change our minds when new information comes in that challenges our view of the world.

Doncha just love trading, it's like poker on steroids, a massive puzzle to work out
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,732
  • May 25, 2014 10:09am May 25, 2014 10:09am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Exactly. However, I give you The Boy Who Cried Wolf.
As in, eventually the wolf will come?
That's fair enough, eventually perhaps it will, but you need to look at a long-term long bond yield chart and ask yourself, "hmm, why does that chart look like it does"?
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,733
  • May 25, 2014 10:15am May 25, 2014 10:15am
Quoting The Fool
I smell a bargain! ZNGA trading at $3.29, Sep $4.50 calls are just $0.16! Somebody bought 12,000+ of the $4.00's at $0.24....! {image}
The June $3.5 calls are only $.11 was looking at other calls and they are all very low even the ones in the money. Not much activity on these zynga calls
  • #3,734
  • May 25, 2014 2:22pm May 25, 2014 2:22pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} The June $3.5 calls are only $.11 was looking at other calls and they are all very low even the ones in the money. Not much activity on these zynga calls
June too soon, save your dubloons for a late summer swoon. After next earnings, that is.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,735
  • May 25, 2014 2:27pm May 25, 2014 2:27pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} As in, eventually the wolf will come? That's fair enough, eventually perhaps it will, but you need to look at a long-term long bond yield chart and ask yourself, "hmm, why does that chart look like it does"?
Yes, the wolves, a whole pack of them sitting on the FOMC, they also looking at long term charts of T yields and their spreads against bunds and all kinds of eurotrash paper. And they scratch their long wolf whiskers and say "why?"....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,736
  • May 25, 2014 2:47pm May 25, 2014 2:47pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} The taper. The taper trumps everything. .........Also, the prospect of ECB largesse complicates matters, although generally most don't think that Fed- or BoE-like ECB QE is coming,..........Ukraine is a yawn,...... all we can do is read the tea leaves as best we can and be willing to change our minds when new information comes in that challenges our view of the world. Doncha just love trading, it's like poker on steroids, a massive puzzle to work out
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsev.../20140430a.htm
"Beginning in May, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $20 billion per month rather than $25 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $25 billion per month rather than $30 billion per month."

Yes, the tapirs. As of this month $85bio/mo has been cut to $45bio/mo, and after the June 18 FOMC, we go to $35bio/mo, which paces out to $0bio/mo by Halloween, the spooky eve of the US midterm elections.....

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell...n-sps-stovall/


I think big QE in the ezee is a long shot, too, and that just steepens the uphill climb for equities. Ukraine is a yawn until it's not and I hope it blows over. But I could see that flaring up into something bigger than most imagine.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,737
  • May 25, 2014 4:16pm May 25, 2014 4:16pm
Hi guys. Been reading this thread for a while. Love all the ideas on options play. I did some beginner level options year+ back, mostly on silver SLV 2x and 3x etfs... Since then minimum volatility in slv and massive daily spikes in volume (with some days trading more silver that all miners in world dig it in a year...) made me believe that silver paper market is even more manipulated than everything else... So now i am now looking away from pm, and wishing to learn some new strategies and get new ideas, while trading news on forex... I am interested in currency options and specifics there, as I think i am too small and fragile for futures yet...

Looking frw to reading you all and hopefuly throw in my 5c from time to time.

cheers, Jack aka weirdgod...
  • #3,738
  • May 25, 2014 5:24pm May 25, 2014 5:24pm
Quoting weirdgod
Looking frw to reading you all and hopefuly throw in my 5c from time to time. cheers, Jack aka weirdgod...
You're welcome Jack - throw up some trade ideas sometime and we'll see if we can learn from each other.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,739
  • May 25, 2014 5:44pm May 25, 2014 5:44pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Yes, the wolves, a whole pack of them sitting on the FOMC, they also looking at long term charts of T yields and their spreads against bunds and all kinds of eurotrash paper. And they scratch their long wolf whiskers and say "why?"....
because why....

http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfi...rtner=yahootix
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,740
  • May 25, 2014 9:53pm May 25, 2014 9:53pm
natgas futures I see are down in Asian Monday, I am looking for UNG to dip <$24 this week on its way to summer lows near $21 or lower. News of China-Russia gas deal has to be a stink in the dreams of US natgas wouldbe exporters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A4K07K20140521
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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