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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #46,221
  • Edited 7:31am May 24, 2014 7:21am | Edited 7:31am
Quoting fti
{quote} not sure, but i think there not much consensus about TA. if i may risk a guess, would believe that there may be consenses about that you either not read the thread or learned nothing from all the effort. don't you feel like is a little rude ask judgement about things you not have a clue about? Who do you think you are? I hope i not joined you and become rude. But is my bad hair day. having some difficulty finding myself. Already i answered too much to a 1 liner. what do you think? is it better have the sun or maybe sun is no good? regards...
You were rude, I was not. It is a strange environment when a newcomer asking a polite question is accused of being rude. I don't feel it rude to ask on a 2000+ page thread what the summary is. I have of course read the initial posts, but some other forums actually have a summary of the main points. I'm not a regular poster here, but thought the thread might be interesting, then looked to the most recent pages and saw pictures of food, some music videos and wondered if the initial topic was over since a consensus had been reached here, or perhaps they were just fun off-topic posts before resuming the main topic of the thread. So I asked.

In terms of what I know...I do know plenty about technical analysis and trading. If that is not welcome here, then I can find another thread. Your thread, so your choice, I'm just a guest and it doesn't matter much to me where I post. Either way, when you make statements like "Who do you think you are"...and "already answered too much to a 1 liner" I think it is you who needs to ask of yourself who do you think you are. I'm just an ordinary man asking about the status of the thread, you seem to think that you are above answering a '1-liner' properly. So back to the question, is anything agreed, is anything uncertain, is there something I can help with?

And yes, I think it better to have a sun.
  • #46,222
  • May 24, 2014 7:27am May 24, 2014 7:27am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} hey SupraSense, if i may add a little, many ways to skin cat. all the outcomes is same, get skinned cat. is which way u most comfortable and natural with lah. opps sorry - just analogy, no come after me for animals abuse. actually me love pets ok, so if you find that you want learn something new, invest a little time and read thread. there are many things to learn. break the content here into small parts & read and certain content here is best decipeher urself, everyday i read a little and think a little, and i learn new things behind...
Hi Jacque, thanks for the post. Are you from Hong Kong? All my Hong Kong friends use lah at the end of sentences

I was just wondering the state of the thread. Are things still being discussed with regard to the opening post, or is it just a place for friends to hang out and chat?

I've been trading for a long time, so although there may well be some gems in here, the thought of wading through 46000 posts or so, to find one or two gems is not an efficient use of my time. Besides, those are history, there's no way to interact with those. What do you consider to be the key points and insights about technical analysis? I take it from your post that you are satisfied with your trading, well done. The insights on the key parts of this thread will be even more valuable from a profitable trader. Thanks.
  • #46,223
  • May 24, 2014 8:40am May 24, 2014 8:40am
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} Hi Jacque, thanks for the post. Are you from Hong Kong? All my Hong Kong friends use lah at the end of sentences I was just wondering the state of the thread. Are things still being discussed with regard to the opening post, or is it just a place for friends to hang out and chat? I've been trading for a long time, so although there may well be some gems in here, the thought of wading through 46000 posts or so, to find one or two gems is not an efficient use of my time. Besides, those are history, there's no way to interact with those....

Hi Supra,
You are welcomed. However, I have a little ask of you... First, put ego aside , don't spend your energy on defending your statements. Second, don't ask for a summary, read first 200 pages, tts abt what the entire thread is. Other thread have summary, there is none here. one may keep a dog in the house, the other may not. Third, fti has given freely, these info can cost millions and is mostly out of reach unless one is elite trader in elite banks. Thus, let us all be respectful with each other here. Fti's Presentation has ended long time ago and now here is mostly chit chat between frens. There is no such thing as concensus here. Yes sun is good for you, however those who have skin problem don't like sun. So may i request u to read and make ur conclusion. Take what you need and if nothing suits, I wish you continued success in your endeavors
People usually like pay for things so their mind will think the info is useful and be satiafied. So give thanks if u find the info here helpful to you because it's all free.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #46,224
  • Edited 9:41am May 24, 2014 9:04am | Edited 9:41am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} Hi Supra, You are welcomed. However, I have a little ask of you... First, put ego aside , don't spend your energy on defending your statements. Second, don't ask for a summary, read first 200 pages, tts abt what the entire thread is. Other thread have summary, there is none here. one may keep a dog in the house, the other may not. Third, fti has given freely, these info can cost millions and is mostly out of reach unless one is elite trader in elite banks. Thus, let us all be respectful with each other here. Fti's Presentation has ended...
I have decided based mainly on the response from fti, that this thread is not for me. If questions are considered rude, then this is not a welcoming place or a place to learn something.

Thanks anyway for your response.
  • #46,225
  • Edited 12:31pm May 24, 2014 12:13pm | Edited 12:31pm
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} I have decided based mainly on the response from fti, that this thread is not for me. If questions are considered rude, then this is not a welcoming place or a place to learn something. Thanks anyway for your response.
Hi SupraSense,

in this world, questions are not rude. it is what one ask that may consider rude. example:

Hihi, may I ask if you would like have a cup of green tea? vs Hey, you there, come here and buy from me a cup of green tea

The above is to explain that questions are not rude, it is what one ask that may be considered rude. Actually i am guessing, how would an author of a book feels if me ask him of a summary of his book. also, if michael jordan started a thread on "Basketball teamwork fallacy", me wonder how he would feel if me ask what is the consensus on basketball teamwork.

Do you understand what me is trying to explain here? first 200 pages is only 4000 posts. Actually, me have read your previous posting before you edited, in it, you claim you are a elite trader in a elite bank and you have not seen what is presented here in the elite bank you worked in, actually is simple. all banks have their own style and makes lot of money. fti's style is just one style and he was from elite tier 1 bank. if one wanted to learn fti's style, probablly need find ways enter that elite bank or pay him for lessons. that is what i meant by one need enter elite bank or pay him. actually i wonder why i am explaining this since you from elite bank. the last i know, elite banks put their candidates thru many test, inductive and deductive reasoning so which one are we confused here? i think is inductive. sorry if i am naughty here, just wondering. if you would like consensus, most people that throdded down this path would have consensus to ask new comer to read first 200 pages.

Now, you from elite bank, you also have your style which makes many pips. if you like, why dont you start a thread and we can learn from each other and i am not sure how you would react if one new guy suddenly pop into your thread after 2000 pages and ask you the consensus or a summary of your thread, this is tricky isnt it? anyway fti claimed he is from tier 1 banks and shared credentials and his photo in this thread he started - would you do the same? sorry, i am naughty here again, it is just too tempting & easy to keep challenging people over a annoynoumus forum, isnt it?

ah, me scorpians is coming out - gotta go give it some spanking.

hope you understand what me trying to say, me wont be engaging with you over this anymore. if you would like, start a thread and me would glad to participate if it suites.

btw, i am just an ordainary person and we are all frens here. me ask for respect from each is simple - on forum, is hard to read facial expression and thus language expression that is seemlingly harmless may look harsh, and unless me have been following your post, me wouldnt know your style of writing.

me read one of your post about reading the market, if one non english speaker observes "e" comes after "t" in many writings and predicts that everytime there is a t, e will appear, he is very wrong. That's what you mentioned. same here isnt it, you not know fti style, doesnt mean his one comment about you in seemingly unfriendly way would mean that he would be unfreidnly with you all the way and even to all new comers or to any questions being asked. same thing for me, i dont know you, i havent read much of your postings but i believe you have kind intentions. so why dont we take all postings and remove all the emotions from the language. there seems to be nothing to lose by doing that and actually one feels much happier
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #46,226
  • Edited 1:20pm May 24, 2014 1:04pm | Edited 1:20pm
Quoting Jacque
{quote} Hi SupraSense, in this world, questions are not rude. it is what one ask that may consider rude. example: Hihi, may I ask if you would like have a cup of green tea? vs Hey, you there, come here and buy from me a cup of green tea The above is to explain that questions are not rude, it is what one ask that may be considered rude. Actually i am guessing, how would an author of a book feels if me ask him of a summary of his book. also, if michael jordan started a thread on "Basketball teamwork fallacy", me wonder how he would feel if me ask...
The "hey you here, come and buy a tea" is a statement and not a question. Can easily understand why someone might not like to be commanded. An author of a book is often required (or has someone else do it for them) to write a synopsis on the back or just inside the cover. Michael Jordan would probably be able to answer such a question about basketball. In none of those cases would the request be rude. Likewise if someone has read a book or a film, I don't think they'd be offended if I asked them what it was about. This is normal conversation.

If I had a thread and someone popped on and asked a question, I would either answer the question as best I could, explain why I couldn't answer the question, or I may just not respond if I didn't have time. What I wouldn't do is accuse someone of being rude simply for asking a question, and I wouldn't put myself above them by calling them a 1-liner not worth responding to. Everyone here is equal and deserves to be treated so. Some know more than others or less, but that's no reason to treat them any differently.

As for would I share my photo and credentials online, aside from the fact that I like my privacy and there are too many crazy people about (not referring to you), you should also be aware that there are many compliance issues which make this impossible. I came here to this forum to discuss, possibly learn, possibly help, as I do from time to time. I didn't come to challenge fti. I asked a simple question. Now if you're done responding, I'm done here too. This is not the thread for me. But I wish you well in your trading journey.
  • #46,227
  • May 24, 2014 1:43pm May 24, 2014 1:43pm
@ suprasense ah ago!! it is destructive. think about a teacher how's student's asking same Q every day every time.!
the ans is hidden in thread name " Technical Analysis Fallacy"
ok let put it in another way, what is the main factor which drive the price, is it technical tools or price drive all these tools, did moving average drive the price or price cause the change in moving average!!!!!!
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #46,228
  • May 24, 2014 1:59pm May 24, 2014 1:59pm
Quoting priceaction1
@ suprasense ah ago!! it is destructive. think about a teacher how's student's asking same Q every day every time.! the ans is hidden in thread name " Technical Analysis Fallacy" ok let put it in another way, what is the main factor which drive the price, is it technical tools or price drive all these tools, did moving average drive the price or price cause the change in moving average!!!!!!
I asked one question. Think about the student who goes to school and asks one question on his first day and is told to get out of class, lol

In terms of what drives price, it's people (or algos) placing orders which move price. There are a variety of reasons for these people to do that. Obviously a moving average doesn't move price.
  • #46,229
  • May 24, 2014 2:07pm May 24, 2014 2:07pm
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} I asked one question. Think about the student who goes to school and asks one question on his first day and is told to get out of class, lol In terms of what drives price, it's people (or algos) placing orders which move price. There are a variety of reasons for these people to do that. Obviously a moving average doesn't move price.
ok late comer so people's orders move the price??? did you notice there are many price level where lot of volume(order) are generated but price doesn't move, and there are some area where hardly any volume but price move many pips in blink of eye.so order dons't move the price so my Q stand what move the price????
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #46,230
  • Edited 2:26pm May 24, 2014 2:15pm | Edited 2:26pm
Quoting priceaction1
{quote} ok late comer so people's orders move the price??? did you notice there are many price level where lot of volume(order) are generated but price doesn't move, and there are some area where hardly any volume but price move many pips in blink of eye.so order dons't move the price so my Q stand what move the price????
As I told you, it's orders that move price. What you have stated about lots of volume being traded and price not moving means that there were lots of orders placed, and they were absorbed by other orders leading to very little movement. That doesn't contradict what I've said. Look at a trading instrument check the liquidity on the bid and ask. If there are 1000 contracts listed on the bid and you sell 1 contract, you won't move the price, it will just be absorbed and now there will be 999 contracts on the bid. If you sell 10,000 contracts at market, your order will move the price. So it depends on market orders and limit orders. Surely fti has explained all of this.
  • #46,231
  • May 24, 2014 2:32pm May 24, 2014 2:32pm
@ suprasense, let take resent eur/usd example when price was at 1.3980 area what cause all of sudden all order changes there direction, did these order cause the change of price or some thing else cause the change of order direction. so we are at point that" price change because of orders" but why order change there direction, (which is direction of price0.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #46,232
  • May 24, 2014 2:49pm May 24, 2014 2:49pm
Quoting priceaction1
@ suprasense, let take resent eur/usd example when price was at 1.3980 area what cause all of sudden all order changes there direction, did these order cause the change of price or some thing else cause the change of order direction. so we are at point that" price change because of orders" but why order change there direction, (which is direction of price0.
The market is a complex thing made up of many particpants. So when you say what caused the change in direction, it has already been answered. Price movement is due to orders and liquidity being consumed by orders. That's the result of traders and algos placing orders. There was more interest in selling at that price than there was in buying. Consequently the sellers couldn't find enough buyers at that high price and so had to pay lower and lower prices. We're dealing with decision making by traders and algos. Not everyone does things for the same reasons. So not all orders were changed. Some people still went long at 1.3980, some people went long at various prices on the way down. Their reasons for this do not need to be the same.

If you mean that price movement itself can cause traders to change their decisions and alter their orders, then yes of course this can be true. The effect of orders can affect others which in turn affect their orders.

I hope that answers satisfactorily.
  • #46,233
  • Edited 3:10pm May 24, 2014 2:59pm | Edited 3:10pm
difference of opinion!!! "There was more interest in selling at that price" that is my point why this interest was born in just matter of seconds, any external cause, did some one says some thing unusual and "the sellers couldn't find enough buyers at that high price" high and low price is relative term, if price don't stop there and move upward than what was the high point. so one can't says that at this point price is high or low,
​price is always try to be at equilibrium point, when this equilibrium change due to any one reason from so many. than it change it's sitting position.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #46,234
  • May 24, 2014 3:05pm May 24, 2014 3:05pm
Quoting priceaction1
@ suprasense, let take resent eur/usd example when price was at 1.3980 area what cause all of sudden all order changes there direction, did these order cause the change of price or some thing else cause the change of order direction. so we are at point that" price change because of orders" but why order change there direction, (which is direction of price0.

Orders are what moves price, but lesser orders are what becomes Liquidity. If a big order for buying comes in and then it runs it runs into a bigger sell order IT becomes the liquidity. It's one of the things about TA and Price action trading that most are not thought. There is no mystery, and in the case of forex the market is also a catch 22. You ever seen the movie the butterfly effect? well the forex market is like that, a knock on effect of dominoes happening and events taking place because I happened somewhere else.

So in a sense you are arguing one of the very Fallacies of Technical analysis.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #46,235
  • May 24, 2014 3:07pm May 24, 2014 3:07pm
Quoting priceaction1
difference of opinion!!! "There was more interest in selling at that price" that is my point why this interest was born in just matter of seconds, any external cause, did some one says some thing unusual
Sure, news can have an effect. It affects what people think and in turn they adjust their orders. And since orders can move the price, news plays a role. However, good news doesn't necessarily move the price up and bad news doesn't necessarily move the price down. The news has to have a significant effect on those who make up the market, i.e. the traders. It's traders that form the market, so ultimately traders that move it. They do so by placing orders.
  • #46,236
  • May 24, 2014 3:11pm May 24, 2014 3:11pm
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} It affects what people think and in turn they adjust their orders. And since orders can move the price, news plays a role. However, good news doesn't necessarily move the price up and bad news doesn't necessarily move the price down. The news has to have a significant effect on those who make up the market, i.e. the traders. It's traders that form the market, so ultimately traders that move it. They do so by placing orders.
Very Important point and more traders should understand this. It's one of the Fallacies of fundamental analysis. The news doesn't move the market, orders do, only orders. Buying and selling is the only fuel for the market.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #46,237
  • May 24, 2014 3:12pm May 24, 2014 3:12pm
Quoting saneblane
{quote} Nope I am not going to agree with that. News don't affect the market, it affect traders and they place orders that then affect the market. If a nuclear bomb explodes not a thing would happen to the market, Unless the orders are place not one thing would happen. And I think it's also one of the misconceptions that people have.
But that's exactly what I said. Did you mean something else?
  • #46,238
  • May 24, 2014 3:15pm May 24, 2014 3:15pm
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} But that's exactly what I said.
Lol Yea you are right. I saw the first part and just went off. Let me re-edit my post. If you understand that then you should be fine. Some traders never really grasp it.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #46,239
  • May 24, 2014 3:20pm May 24, 2014 3:20pm
Quoting saneblane
{quote} Lol Yea you are right. I saw the first part and just went off. Let me re-edit my post. If you understand that then you should be fine. Some traders never really grasp it/
lol, yeah people doin't like it when you point it out. You can show plenty of examples where price moved the opposite direction to what the news would suggest, but the usual get out clause is 'it was priced in'.
  • #46,240
  • May 24, 2014 3:24pm May 24, 2014 3:24pm
good!!! let establish the point
1. price move by orders.
ok what factor effecting on order placing with respect to there direction?

most of technical tools were developed for stock/commodity trading trading, not for Forex it is totally different,( my opinion)
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
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