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Trading Crude Oil with price action + indicator

  • #81
  • Edited 1:52pm May 8, 2014 10:45am | Edited 1:52pm
Oh very IMPORTANT. Don't misunderstand my use of the word bail.

The ability to use this correctly is based on your screen time experience. We should only be entering trades with the highest probability based on our analysis. Anything less and we should not enter. Too many little bails equal big losses in the end. Bigger because you don't realize it at first. So these need to be used wisely and based on lots of screen time. A trade really should not be taken without the utmost confidence. Bails must be used carefully. You enter a trade with full risk so you don't want to keep bailing on possible winners because you got skittish. Practice and screen time. This is why you read everywhere that you should focus on one or two instruments at the most. Of course I don't take that/my own advice and I'm all over the place but you should do as I say and not as I do.
Good Luck


Quoting don555
Joe thanks for the explanation your horizontal lines along with the trendlines have helped me immensely I now see my chart in a completely different way and I have a better understanding of what is going on. ie When to enter and exit also to bail if price stalls which I did not do before. As you said it is a puzzle until a person gets their head around it.
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  • #82
  • May 8, 2014 5:37pm May 8, 2014 5:37pm
After studying what Joe has been posting charts etc. I have come to his conclusion that selling seems to be an easier and quicker option for storing up your % of pips.
As far as buying is concerned it can be a long drawn out process to get to your target most of the time.

So for anyone new to this way of trading or maybe someone that is not so good at it only take sells until you build up a bit of confidence before you attempt to buy as at times it can play with your head.

Joe my preference is 1 hour charts probably the reason is that I have been watching them for about 3 weeks now and I am picking up several characteristics from them.
  • #83
  • Edited May 9, 2014 12:37am May 8, 2014 6:28pm | Edited May 9, 2014 12:37am
Sell offs are fast and swift. Big money real fast and you're out. AGREE but you can still get hurt either way.

Yup pick the time frame(s) and stick to them. But you should pick at least 3 for an instrument. IMO. One fast, a medium and a slow. I'm only posting my analysis time frame but run 2 others as well. The entry and larger perspective I haven't posted. It's also wise and OK to jump around time frames when building analysis but IMO once the lines are drawn, stick with your favorite 3. Just my amateur take on things.


Quoting don555
After studying what Joe has been posting charts etc. I have come to his conclusion that selling seems to be an easier and quicker option for storing up your % of pips. As far as buying is concerned it can be a long drawn out process to get to your target most of the time. So for anyone new to this way of trading or maybe someone that is not so good at it only take sells until you build up a bit of confidence before you attempt to buy as at times it can play with your head. Joe my preference is 1 hour charts probably the reason is that I have been...
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  • #84
  • Edited May 9, 2014 7:32am May 8, 2014 6:29pm | Edited May 9, 2014 7:32am
The puzzle is growing. :nerd:

After tomorrow, we go semi-clean slate for Monday otherwise it just starts to get confusing plus the levels are slightly moving (blue boxes). Lines may need adjustment to where blue boxes are. That's for the weekend. But everyone's on their own tomorrow and next week.
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  • #85
  • May 9, 2014 12:24am May 9, 2014 12:24am
I posted about bailing on trades before set stops a few post back and as fate would have it, I was checking in on FTI's thread just curious if he returned as he is going through some health issues and found someone posted some quick links to some good FTI stuff. I never saw this one by FTI. It's his take on when to bail. Good stuff.

When to bail

And the quick links
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  • #86
  • Edited 5:49am May 9, 2014 2:06am | Edited 5:49am
Joe can you tell me what type of news has an effect on oil?

Joe when will the puzzle be complete ?
  • #87
  • Edited 9:39am May 9, 2014 7:10am | Edited 9:39am
My amateur take on news for Crude so far is. The regular red flagged US session news. I have noticed that if S&P e-mini tanks, so does Crude. S&P pops, so does Crude. Often , but not always. Also, sometimes one makes the move first and if you miss it, you can jump to the other and get it before it starts. I did this on more than one occasion and it's amazing to see it unfold almost identical to the other. Similar price action and everything. Natural gas news because it's still U.S. news as well as and of course "energy".

The puzzle is done today. I like to start fresh again on Monday. Over the weekend I clean it up and start again. Too many lines can get confusing for me that is. I like using the newest levels if there are some as I believe in "Not Looking Too Deep Into The Past." "Trade the Now". Just dumb shit I make up to keep me focused on my game plan.

Look at my newest Ace Of Spades Card. I'm not moving any markets with my chump change and I'm not inflicting any pain on any buyers but the card reminds me that my skills are better SELLING and that is what I should be doing.

Everyone builds their own take and style on things. If you are wrong, you lose money. If you are right, you make money and if you are making money keep doing things the way they work for you regardless of what anyone else is doing. Your account is your only judge. I love these clowns around here telling others they are wrong in their beliefs not even knowing if the guy is making money in what he or she for that matter believes in.

Many great things in the world came from people doing things against the masses unknowingly and in the process discovered greater things . The outcome is what's important.

Good Fortunes Brotha. I must go now and find something to sell in the Evil Market place that only wants to inflict pain on everyone.

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Quoting don555
Joe can you tell me what type of news has an effect on oil? Joe when will the puzzle be complete ?
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  • #88
  • Edited 11:58pm May 9, 2014 7:44am | Edited 11:58pm
The Pain is being handed out to the masses this morning in FX.

The knife is fast and swift slicing all their dreams...

T A K E - Y O U R - P R O F I T S

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  • #89
  • May 9, 2014 11:34am May 9, 2014 11:34am
Crude had a nice mini dip just now...
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I wonder what happened.. I cashed out on my puts... cha-ching!
  • #90
  • May 9, 2014 4:58pm May 9, 2014 4:58pm
Quoting JoeNY
Cool man. We all deserve a piece of the pie. Screw the big banks if they can't take a joke. Trading is a continuous learning journey. I learn something new everyday myself. I'm never satisfied. It's amazing how many roads you can go with this. {quote}
Good point JoeNY. Always learning...
  • #91
  • May 13, 2014 5:24am May 13, 2014 5:24am
Can anyone please advise what stop should I be using on a 1 hour chart ?
  • #92
  • May 13, 2014 10:02am May 13, 2014 10:02am
yesterdays high / low, then weekly high/low?? or human numbers? aka 100, 101, 102, 103... crude seems to really like to stick to them.
  • #93
  • May 13, 2014 10:13am May 13, 2014 10:13am
Thanks Sean
  • #94
  • May 14, 2014 10:04am May 14, 2014 10:04am
Good to see some Oil traders on FF.... I traded oil a lot on the 2 min with interactive Brokers... given FX away now under the daily...

Been trading a small acc since the 23/04 this year till now... after a trial acc... using IC markets atm.

Trading a 1 hour on WTI and GLD find them a lot better then FX... (see if i still think this in 4 months time) attached my acc state, first week was one to forget.... was down over half the acc at one stage..... but if you follow your rules you will be rewarded.
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  • #95
  • Edited 3:10pm May 14, 2014 10:51am | Edited 3:10pm
There were many times when I felt trading Futures was better than FX and then it occurred to me. It had nothing to do with the market traded and EVERYTHING to do with the times they're traded. U.S. session based on my experience is the best time to trade FX. (I need volatility to trade. If volatility is not for you, trade London or Asia) All pairs IMO are going to make substantial moves during the U.S session. (excluding the Euro today though, lol. So lame..) anyway.. U.S. session= The best R:R IMO. In my experience, I see the same price action in both FX and Futures. Price/Order-Flow pretty much moves the same. The advantage to trading Futures.... "No Spread". You're in at the price and make money right from the entry (ideally).

(London's good as well for FX (GBP & EURO) but for the most part not a prime time for futures unless its GBP or EURO futures or an early entry on the S&P or some other Futures contract making one of those on occasion ...early a.m. moves.

But then again... what do I know... Use your own due diligence.


Quoting >Apocalypto<
Good to see some Oil traders on FF.... I traded oil a lot on the 2 min with interactive Brokers... given FX away now under the daily... Been trading a small acc since the 23/04 this year till now... after a trial acc... using IC markets atm. Trading a 1 hour on WTI and GLD find them a lot better then FX... (see if i still think this in 4 months time) attached my acc state, first week was one to forget.... was down over half the acc at one stage..... but if you follow your rules you will be rewarded. {image}
SPC * Swollen PocketZ Crew!
  • #96
  • May 15, 2014 6:12pm May 15, 2014 6:12pm
Quoting JoeNY
There were many times when I felt trading Futures was better than FX and then it occurred to me. It had nothing to do with the market traded and EVERYTHING to do with the times they're traded. U.S. session based on my experience is the best time to trade FX. (I need volatility to trade. If volatility is not for you, trade London or Asia) All pairs IMO are going to make substantial moves during the U.S session. (excluding the Euro today though, lol. So lame..) anyway.. U.S. session= The best R:R IMO. In my experience, I see the same price action...
Today Crude continued down low despite statements by Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, who said that Ukraine is very close to a civil war.
  • #97
  • May 17, 2014 8:07am May 17, 2014 8:07am
very soon oil will break (neck , short position )well see /do not worry/ long first [q/ uote=bewayopa;7472490]{quote} Today Crude continued down low despite statements by Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, who said that Ukraine is very close to a civil war.[/quote]
  • #98
  • May 23, 2014 7:50am May 23, 2014 7:50am
Has anyone got any analysis on which way this oil will go today it has now been in a range for close to 2 days and I am quite sure we will get a breakout today but which way will it go.

Anyones thoughts would be appreciated, I will be back later to give my opinion as long as I do not miss a large move.
  • #99
  • May 23, 2014 10:43am May 23, 2014 10:43am
Looks higher. Past $103, next stop seems like $110.

Although, I'm sure we're in for a bit of a pullback sometime soon...

Sean
  • #100
  • May 23, 2014 12:06pm May 23, 2014 12:06pm
Quoting seanwg
Looks higher. Past $103, next stop seems like $110. Although, I'm sure we're in for a bit of a pullback sometime soon... Sean

I dont think it will go much higher today !
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