Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 216 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #4,301
  • May 14, 2014 1:54am May 14, 2014 1:54am
Quoting Solomon1a
thanks for your dollar index thoughts. Alfonso can you share your view on dow and ftse?
Will try to post this analysis during the day today my friend. I don't trade them, I trade other indexes, but it will be good to make those 2 analysis
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,302
  • May 14, 2014 5:42am May 14, 2014 5:42am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hello my friend! Thanks for your post and welcome to the thread. There is just ONE thing I can tell you about the broker's difference which is what I do and what I always say: trade what you see on YOUR charts. As simple as that. Who cares what other brokers are displaying? There will be difference sometimes, yes, but who cares? Sometimes you will miss a trade on your broker because the candle formation was not good for a CP, others you will get them. Sometimes you will lose, others you will win. Just play the odds based on what you see...
Hello Alfonso.
Thank you for replying. You are right about the trading part. I trade what i see that is the only way to avoid a headache.
I think i understand what you are saying but i want to make absolutley sure. What i want to know is this:

Is it worth buying Forextester 2 and spending hours and hours in it eventhough the charts are different from my broker.
  • #4,303
  • Edited 8:28am May 14, 2014 8:12am | Edited 8:28am
Quoting Distinction
{quote} Hello Alfonso. Thank you for replying. You are right about the trading part. I trade what i see that is the only way to avoid a headache. I think i understand what you are saying but i want to make absolutley sure. What i want to know is this: Is it worth buying Forextester 2 and spending hours and hours in it eventhough the charts are different from my broker.
Well my opinion is well known by those that read this thread. Forex Tester is not only worth buying, it's in my humble opinion the only way to backtest in a mechanical way. Visual backtest is useless, you will see what you want to see. But that's my opinion, it has helped me a LOT, it could help you as well

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,304
  • May 14, 2014 8:13am May 14, 2014 8:13am
Quoting rohule
hi guys, i just want to share my lastest trade, its on eurgbp h4, everything is down and i have a try on a valid supply zone, lets see how this works out {image}
It looks like the WK demand is reacting as I mentioned in my last post, almost hit the nest D1 demand. It retraced all the way back to your entry since that level is too low.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,305
  • May 14, 2014 10:20am May 14, 2014 10:20am
hello Alfonso,

I'd like to ask you about 2 charts that you explained in the last posting. here the charts...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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this is your chart that you're explain in your last posting on page 215 post #4293

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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this is my chart that you're correction in last posting page 214 post #4.267

what the differences about the base on circle area? In your post that answer my last post, you've written that the blue one is wrong area and the yellow one that you draw is "not well formed, spiky, reaction to liquidity lower".

I think that demand in circle area in your chart is same with mine.... it's spiky. CMIIW.
I'm waiting to hear from you.

Thanks,
Soni
  • #4,306
  • May 15, 2014 3:02am May 15, 2014 3:02am
Quoting sonigl
hello Alfonso, I'd like to ask you about 2 charts that you explained in the last posting. here the charts... {image} this is your chart that you're explain in your last posting on page 215 post #4293 {image} this is my chart that you're correction in last posting page 214 post #4.267 what the differences about the base on circle area? In your post that answer my last post, you've written that the blue one is wrong area and the yellow one that you draw is "not well formed, spiky, reaction to liquidity lower". I think that demand in circle area in...
Unless you put both charts side to side and show me what you want to ask exactly, it's difficult for me to go and locate a chart in a different post, etc. It takes me longer to do that. Please show me the questions on the same post and both charts if you don't mind! THanks a lot
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,307
  • May 15, 2014 3:05am May 15, 2014 3:05am
An update on my previous post on the US Index

  1. The MN demand zone held as described in previous posts, TL broken on the D1 and now reaching a WK supply zone
  2. Dollar Index is holding the TL break, approaching the WK supply supply.
  3. There is a nested D1 supply within the WK supply that could work. If that starts to work, there could be some longs on EURUSD and majors. That means confirmation H4 demand zones since there are no fresh zones to go long at
  4. The green D1 demand has not removed anything, so it could be easily absorbed on the way down if supply takes control
  5. WK TL down, the levels have a confluence with the TL

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,308
  • May 16, 2014 1:59am May 16, 2014 1:59am
A follow up on yesterday's commentary on the US Index

  1. A bearish D1 Pin candle Doji happened at WK supply proximal like, it looks like the US Index wants to drop a bit. Previous green potential D1 demand is not valid because it did not take out any supply, so we could have some short on the US Index, longs on the EURUSD based on confirmation
  2. Too high in the WK curve and confluence with the descending WK TL, some shorts could could happen on the US Index
  3. Price could rally higher into the D1 supply nested within the WK supply

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,309
  • May 17, 2014 4:58pm May 17, 2014 4:58pm
I've been thoroughly enjoying reading through your thread, Panoramia.
It's excellent.
Sincere and humble thanks, If.
  • #4,310
  • May 18, 2014 6:35pm May 18, 2014 6:35pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Unless you put both charts side to side and show me what you want to ask exactly, it's difficult for me to go and locate a chart in a different post, etc. It takes me longer to do that. Please show me the questions on the same post and both charts if you don't mind! THanks a lot Alfonso
hi alfonso,

thanks for your reply, I'm sorry if make you confused. the point of my question is if I found a spiky candle... is that mean "not well formed" (not good for trading) like in the picture below...
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Thanks 'n Regards,
Soni
  • #4,311
  • May 19, 2014 12:46am May 19, 2014 12:46am
Quoting sonigl
{quote} hi alfonso, thanks for your reply, I'm sorry if make you confused. the point of my question is if I found a spiky candle... is that mean "not well formed" (not good for trading) like in the picture below... {image} Thanks 'n Regards, Soni
Yes, that's it Soni... If I don't see a well structured base I will wait for confirmation, long wicks are one of those formations... Price can penetrate it fully or even overshoot them

Have a nice day!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,312
  • May 19, 2014 11:55am May 19, 2014 11:55am
Hello,
i am a part time italian trader. Is there some italian trader in this thread ?

Thank you Alfonso because i love your methodology of trading.
I think that the santo graal of trading is understand what is/how works supply & demand.
I must understand it but i need of your help.
I work all the day. So Alfonso you advice me to follow MN1, W1 and D1. ( i could follow H4 by smartphone).
Thank you again.
Roby
  • #4,313
  • May 19, 2014 2:50pm May 19, 2014 2:50pm
Quoting roby71trader
Hello, i am a part time italian trader. Is there some italian trader in this thread ? Thank you Alfonso because i love your methodology of trading. I think that the santo graal of trading is understand what is/how works supply & demand. I must understand it but i need of your help. I work all the day. So Alfonso you advice me to follow MN1, W1 and D1. ( i could follow H4 by smartphone). Thank you again. Roby
You are welcome Roby!! Thanks for your words! You can use MN / W1 and entries on D1 and H4, that's what I do in 2 different accounts, one for D1 and one for H4 entries.

Hope that helps
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,314
  • May 19, 2014 2:54pm May 19, 2014 2:54pm
This is a small 7 minutes video describing an analysis on two NZD pairs that could likely produce some shorts soon if conditions continue like now.

  1. NZDUSD and NZDCAD are too high in the curve, reacting to all time highs
  2. Both pairs are too high in the monthly curve, at all time high and rejecting the zone strongly. It has already provided some shorts which I took. I had 1 loss on NZDCAD D1 supply mentioned on the video, but then 2 good winners trying other levels to short as described.

Find attached a screenshot of a couple of posts in the supply and demand community that showed the exact entry moment I took, there were a few posts before that one where the D1 supply loss on NZDCAD was described. Not all trades can be winners, the losses are a very important part of the whole story, but that's fine!

Have a great day!
Alfonso

Inserted Video
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,315
  • May 20, 2014 8:03am May 20, 2014 8:03am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Yes, that's it Soni... If I don't see a well structured base I will wait for confirmation, long wicks are one of those formations... Price can penetrate it fully or even overshoot them Have a nice day! Alfonso
thanks for your reply alfonso, still learning by doing...

have a great day!
Soni
  • #4,316
  • May 20, 2014 3:51pm May 20, 2014 3:51pm
Hi Alfonso,

What do you think about my SL regarding the EURAUD long in the snap shot below?

  • #4,317
  • May 20, 2014 3:53pm May 20, 2014 3:53pm
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  • #4,318
  • May 20, 2014 4:50pm May 20, 2014 4:50pm
Quoting jamaa
{image}
I believe it's correctly place, you are trying to lock in as much profit as possible, placing it underneath the last week high support is a good idea always! Nice!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,319
  • May 25, 2014 1:35am May 25, 2014 1:35am
Hi Moreno,

Firstly, thank you for this thread. I am a relatively new FX trading and I've been using the TMS method, which makes use of Heiken Ashi candles and therefore does not offer much in terms of PA. On the other hand, SD trading strategy does cover PA extremely well, so I'm glad I've come across this thread. That said, which Charting Software do you use?
  • #4,320
  • Edited 2:40am May 26, 2014 1:13am | Edited 2:40am
Hi all,

I'm just trying to pick up S&D trading. Here's an analysis on CADCHF. Please advise if my analysis is correct.

This is the monthly chart

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We are in the monthly demand in control zone. However, the monthly trend is down. So we only be looking for longs on confirmation since the demand zone is a not fresh at this point in time. We then drill down to daily chart to look for confirmation trades.

This is the daily chart.

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We can see from daily chart that the trend is up. The trend line is up. So we can set and forget fresh areas of demand. There is a fresh demand zone now at 0.81834. We can do set and forget at this zone. The zone is 25 pips wide so its fine to take it at Daily timeframe and no need to drill further down to H4 timeframe. Please comment if my analysis is correct. Thanks.
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