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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #14,381
  • May 16, 2014 4:39am May 16, 2014 4:39am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Schickeria, welcome back :-) only on my smartphone, not able to show count end of wave 1 around 3840 end of wave 3 around 3700 end of wave 5 yesterdays low the only restriction for wave 3 is, that is can not be the shortest wave of 1, 3 and 5 most of the time we see most momentum in wave 3, even when it is not the longest
As per my system, that's not a valid count ... you have a conector between 1.3740 and 1.3771 ... also time-wise, doesn't fit ... the best fit (by my rules) are 3-(1-2,1-2,1-2)-3 ... fit to the pip (well ... -3 ... ideal was 1.3643, but if you consider spread ... call filled)

But as allways ... each one have it own way of counting.
  • #14,382
  • May 16, 2014 4:40am May 16, 2014 4:40am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} my ideal target of 3650 was hit nearly to the pip that was a volume based level, a no-business-zone read about market memory, then you will understand, why market cares about certain levels. That is especially true for volume based levels
Agree .. well .. really on what all of us agree it's on pullback finish zone ... , so all of us agree on main trend (daily up), and thats good
  • #14,383
  • May 16, 2014 4:49am May 16, 2014 4:49am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} may be we see today a expanded flat for lower levels. It looks good for a expanded flat for us lower levels that we miss until now.
Yes ... and I want it to do it ... so USDX get 80.50, USDCHF goes higher in the selling zone and not simple doing a kiss-and-bye, that will be a PERFECT bear trap ... moreover if 1.3640 get broken
  • #14,384
  • May 16, 2014 4:58am May 16, 2014 4:58am
Quoting rbetancor
{quote} Yes ... and I want it to do it ... so USDX get 80.50, USDCHF goes higher in the selling zone and not simple doing a kiss-and-bye, that will be a PERFECT bear trap ... moreover if 1.3640 get broken
yes and my daily signals are good for 1.3665/63 area
  • #14,385
  • May 16, 2014 5:08am May 16, 2014 5:08am
Quoting rbetancor
{quote} Yes ... and I want it to do it ... so USDX get 80.50, USDCHF goes higher in the selling zone and not simple doing a kiss-and-bye, that will be a PERFECT bear trap ... moreover if 1.3640 get broken


it looks like that we will see that
  • #14,386
  • May 16, 2014 5:32am May 16, 2014 5:32am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...er-whopping-40
  • #14,387
  • May 16, 2014 8:40am May 16, 2014 8:40am
Quoting rbetancor
{quote} Agree with you, Downmove, for me .. it's just a pullback, if you take a look from M5 till D1 ... you will see a simple 'indies reset', I admit that it's and extrange extructure to count ... only been able to count it as A-B-C (1.3993-1.38316-1.38432-1.37503), then a conector with 1-2, 1-2, 1-2, then another A-B-C (1.3771-1.3688-1.3725-1.3643) ... so 3-connector-3 ... that's corrective pullback Now ... two things could happend ... 1.3750 to complete 5w up from the lows ... so then 50% back and go higher ... OR retest of the lows and possible...
what about a chart for your count?

But when I remember correctly, you do not follow the EW rules and guidelines, don't you?

If not, how should I determine a basis on what we can discuss when it comes to EW counts?
  • #14,388
  • May 16, 2014 8:51am May 16, 2014 8:51am
Lately it is really hard for me in various threads across the FF-boards.

Nearly in every thread I can find statements to the line "price has to go to x.xxxx in order to go to y.yyyy

Price has to go nowhere. No, better said: social mood may do you eventually this favor, but not necessarily.


I think I have read enough over the past 10 years or so regarding mathematical models for movements in the markets, especially Fib-based models.

Sometimes they work, sometimes not. And with having so much fib-levels, no one can say with high probability, which level may be hit, and at which level the price will turn.

I have asked the following question often:

when one would have found the formula, the world would be dominated by this person/institution within a short time, because you would be able to collect all of the money.

When some persons had discovered the formula, markets would simply stop trading because of dysfunction.


But still some people think price has to go to x.xxxx in order to reach y.yyyy
  • #14,389
  • Edited 9:21am May 16, 2014 9:10am | Edited 9:21am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} what about a chart for your count? But when I remember correctly, you do not follow the EW rules and guidelines, don't you? If not, how should I determine a basis on what we can discuss when it comes to EW counts?
Here you have it ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h1-x-trade-brokers.png Size: 56 KB


Short ops (upper ones) ... have been cashed @1.3685 at 95% ... only 5% remains open with SL @1.37952 (SMA200 on H1 now)

Long ops (lower ones) ... the 2 first with a SL now sitting @ 1.3680, first cashing target @1.3820

Will be adding more longs each time I get the right signal ... all of them with diferent targets, but final should be no less that 1.4343, and not far than 1.4873 ... ideal target around 1.4480-1.4563, this are LONG swing targets ... I know ... intraday I do other ops, mostly on comodities-currencies and some scalps.

Now ... about counting, yes .. I do not follow 'standar' EW, but follow EW ... let me explain some of my rules:
- A C wave must ALWAYS be a min of 1.618 of A-B, NO LESS, if less, then thats not an impulsive C wave, that could be another thing. C could be 1.618, 2.0, 3.236, 4.236 or 6.856 of A-B
-When a cycle it's done ... a pullback to 50% of the previous cycle it's a minimum, that pullback should be in 3W or any combination of corrective structures that end doing a 3W of bigger level
- Market moves are done in 3W, 7W and 11W ... NO LESS, there are other numbers ... but only valid for follow the main trend
- Pullbacks ussualy comes to 1.0 or 1.236 of A-B ... 1.0 I allways buy/sell ... a move in the favor of the main trend allways comes ... only need to observe if it's strong enougth
- 5W move from the lows or the highs ... and previous cycle it's over ... wait 3W pullback and entry.
...

Lot of more things ... also pay attention to distribution of the strength of the move ...
  • #14,390
  • May 16, 2014 9:21am May 16, 2014 9:21am
Quoting infinitus
Lately it is really hard for me in various threads across the FF-boards. Nearly in every thread I can find statements to the line "price has to go to x.xxxx in order to go to y.yyyy Price has to go nowhere. No, better said: social mood may do you eventually this favor, but not necessarily. I think I have read enough over the past 10 years or so regarding mathematical models for movements in the markets, especially Fib-based models. Sometimes they work, sometimes not. And with having so much fib-levels, no one can say with high probability, which...
Fibs are just mathematical numbers in terms of retracement that might or might not move/bounce market. I have never ever used them becouse after 5 minutes of use anyone can see what is behind them. I am only interested in facts that market gives. Fact is volume, shorts and longs are what moves market, fact is supply and demand what will bounce price as long as there is no surpluss on directional move, fact is strong pinbar as long as it meets volume increase and fact is market (price) structure definiing sellers and buyers interest. Anything else indicators (stoch, RSI, AO), fib levels, murray, SR is just playing probability, nothing else. And all above facts are more than just probability they are rather playing on actual construction of market its obvious why they are more reliable. But from all "probability indicators" the fib is the most random one i have seen, and its especially RED light for me for that becouse really its so random. Trading with trend and shooting for 30-or 50 fib ok obviously why it makes sense, but you can get so much more accurate signals to follow than that, and once we get counter trend its just really casino on fibs ..my opinion.
  • #14,391
  • May 16, 2014 11:04am May 16, 2014 11:04am
Quoting rbetancor
{quote} Here you have it ... {image} Short ops (upper ones) ... have been cashed @1.3685 at 95% ... only 5% remains open with SL @1.37952 (SMA200 on H1 now) Long ops (lower ones) ... the 2 first with a SL now sitting @ 1.3680, first cashing target @1.3820 Will be adding more longs each time I get the right signal ... all of them with diferent targets, but final should be no less that 1.4343, and not far than 1.4873 ... ideal target around 1.4480-1.4563, this are LONG swing targets ... I know ... intraday I do other ops, mostly on comodities-currencies...


Thank you very much for explanation.

But regarding the chart: I can not see your count :-(

Regarding your own EW rules: are they based on some statistical basis, or only observation?
  • #14,392
  • May 16, 2014 11:12am May 16, 2014 11:12am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Fibs are just mathematical numbers in terms of retracement that might or might not move/bounce market. I have never ever used them becouse after 5 minutes of use anyone can see what is behind them. I am only interested in facts that market gives. Fact is volume, shorts and longs are what moves market, fact is supply and demand what will bounce price as long as there is no surpluss on directional move, fact is strong pinbar as long as it meets volume increase and fact is market (price) structure definiing sellers and buyers interest. Anything...



totally agree

volume = trading activity

looking in the past will define the playing field -> where will price most likely consolidate, where will it most likely be rejected


direction is made by social mood; we can only anticipate turning points, but as ever: probability is not certainty

to estimate direction, EW seems to be the best tool available (albeit not perfect, because it is no crystal ball)


For all the people playing the fibs:

it would be very easy to backtest such a method - why is it, that one can not read a single positive study about it?
  • #14,393
  • May 16, 2014 1:30pm May 16, 2014 1:30pm
Fib levels and self fulfilling prophecy


http://digitalcommons.macalester.edu...onors_projects
  • #14,394
  • May 16, 2014 4:19pm May 16, 2014 4:19pm
Quoting infinitus
Fib levels and self fulfilling prophecy http://digitalcommons.macalester.edu...onors_projects
Please read the red text - don' misunderstand me

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post7474682
  • #14,395
  • May 16, 2014 4:26pm May 16, 2014 4:26pm
Mathematics


http://www.math.cornell.edu/~numb3rs/lipa/Episodes/

http://www.math.cornell.edu/~numb3rs/
  • #14,396
  • May 16, 2014 4:39pm May 16, 2014 4:39pm
Quoting infinitus
Mathematics http://www.math.cornell.edu/~numb3rs/lipa/Episodes/ http://www.math.cornell.edu/~numb3rs/


  • #14,397
  • May 16, 2014 4:45pm May 16, 2014 4:45pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Thank you very much for explanation. But regarding the chart: I can not see your count :-( Regarding your own EW rules: are they based on some statistical basis, or only observation?
Ups! .. changed the font color to not showing ops labels and that erased the count labels ...

Rules are based on traditional EW ... but after studing the theory ... got some fails here and there ... were it doesn't fit ... so do a deep automated research of cheking fib relations of EW moves, highs and lows, compared with some indies ... and got very interesting results ..., put all together and got the system rules ... that I'm perfectioning ... every week got better results ... soo ... always chanching, adapting, to market conditions, 85% of hits ... enougth for me, with good MM techniques, the 15% fails get forgoten in hours after a bad hit ...
  • #14,398
  • May 17, 2014 2:25am May 17, 2014 2:25am
Quoting infinitus
Mathematics http://www.math.cornell.edu/~numb3rs/lipa/Episodes/ http://www.math.cornell.edu/~numb3rs/

I think the physical universe where we live in and all in it itself basically base on math formula if we know how to count it.... but no one will ever able to do that.
  • #14,399
  • May 17, 2014 2:28am May 17, 2014 2:28am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} I think the physical universe where we live in and all in it itself basically base on math formula if we know how to count it.... but no one will ever able to do that.

Well, maybe someday someone will able to do that.
  • #14,400
  • May 17, 2014 7:37am May 17, 2014 7:37am
Tipity top over the plop? Just speculation on direction, entries presented on monday if given.
http://prntscr.com/3jzzaw

GA
http://prntscr.com/3k009f

GCHF, no meeting of sellers at all, could be break of top if buyers are still there (weakend but still there)
http://prntscr.com/3k00iv

GJ, strong buyers came, and then shorters took them over, down should it go.
http://prntscr.com/3k00vr

GCAD, will meet current bottom, demand line (1.8234) will not hold, it will test 1.82
http://prntscr.com/3k019h

AJ easy one:
http://prntscr.com/3k01w8

EU, good buyers on daily, should retest bottom and go up if there is enough buying coming on m5 or m15
http://prntscr.com/3k0280
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