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Attachments: FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Strategies
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FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Strategies

Chinese GDP Beats Expectations But Indicates Slowdown

The Chinese economy grew at 7.4% over the first quarter of this year. While slightly stronger than the median forecast of 7.3%, it still marks a slowdown from 7.7% the previous quarter. The People's Bank of China ( PBOC) sets the midpoint around which the trading band of the Yuan may trade.

http://i.imgur.com/BhBihhe.png


For the third day in a row they set a weaker midpoint at 6.1589, down 0.03 per cent from the previous day's 6.1571. It is the lowest level since September, 2013. As a result the Yuan has been trading between 6.2215 and 6.2262 today.

http://i.imgur.com/UU6fhXW.png


The 6.3000 is a possible target on further Yuan weakness. A stop can be set below the April 9 low of 6.1851. FXCM now offers trading in the offshore Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)
The Russian Ruble led gains by emerging-market currencies as an agreement to start de-escalating the conflict in Ukraine fueled appetite for "risk-on" trades.

http://i.imgur.com/TAv49Rw.png


Over the past two days, the Russian Ruble has gained over 3% meaning the USD/RUB currency pair has fallen from a high of 36.30 to 35.20 where trades currently and could once again target the low of 34.75 set at the start of the month.
Ruble Declines Amid Ukraine Tension

A deadly clash in eastern Ukraine threw into question the viability of the Geneva accord aimed at easing tensions with Russia.

http://static01.nyt.com/images/2014/...-master675.jpg

Genya Savilov/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images


The Russian ruble weakened 0.2% versus the greenback as the USD/RUB rate rose to 35.705:

http://i.imgur.com/LvyOQrw.png


The ruble is the second-worst performer this year among 24 developing-country currencies monitored by Bloomberg, with a 7.8% decline against the dollar:

http://i.imgur.com/cUJBieC.png

Chinese Yuan Presses to Fresh 14-Month Lows

Quoting Jason Rogers

http://i.imgur.com/UU6fhXW.png


The 6.3000 is a possible target on further Yuan weakness. A stop can be set below the April 9 low of 6.1851.
This Chinese yuan (USD/CNH) long position from last week is now up over 160 pips as the renminbi presses to fresh 14-month lows with polls showing regional worry.

http://i.imgur.com/qKv4boL.png

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


While the target is still 6.3000, the stop can now be raised to be below the April 13th low of 6.1990.
Quoting Jason Rogers
Chinese GDP Beats Expectations But Indicates Slowdown The Chinese economy grew at 7.4% over the first quarter of this year. While slightly stronger than the median forecast of 7.3%, it still marks a slowdown from 7.7% the previous quarter. The People's Bank of China ( PBOC) sets the midpoint around which the trading band of the Yuan may trade. {image} For the third day in a row they set a weaker midpoint at 6.1589, down 0.03 per cent from the previous day's 6.1571. It is the lowest level since September, 2013. As a result the Yuan has been trading...
Last week's long USD/CNH (short Chinese Yuan) position from last week is now up over 320 pips as the renminbi continues to make new lows due to key fundamental stresses:

  1. Unwinding of commodity-backed loans, complex financing vehicles contribute to CNH selling.
  2. Risks in the shadow present USD/CNH upside potential (Yuan weakness).
  3. Property market developments are disconcerting in the context of middle class, financial exposure.
  4. Developments in the inter-bank market, rural banks, NPLs are possible canaries in the coal mine.

Commodity Backed Loans Unwinding

https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati..._Picture_4.png


Gregory Marks commented today in his article on DailyFX.com that "An appreciating Yuan and a one-way bet mentality towards CNY strengthening has created a risky mix of overleveraged vehicles of financing.

Property Prices vs. Stimulus Speculation

https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati..._Picture_2.png


"The unwinding could present further upside to the USD/CNH rate if we do see some of these fundamental themes start to pick-up into summer."

http://i.imgur.com/uVTqFCV.png

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


While the target is still 6.3000, the stop can now be raised to be below the April 17th low of 6.2153.
Quoting Jason Rogers
"The unwinding could present further upside to the USD/CNH rate if we do see some of these fundamental themes start to pick-up into summer."

http://i.imgur.com/uVTqFCV.png

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


While the target is still 6.3000, the stop can now be raised to be below the April 17th low of 6.2153.
This Chinese Yuan short trade from last week (long USD/CNH at 6.2193 on April 17th) is now up almost 400 pips and an article today in the Wall Street Journal supports the price target of 6.3000:

"The tumble in China's yuan is showing no signs of letting up, with the currency falling near daily for three straight months as the economy slows, fueling fears that the slide has further to go.

"Analysts and economists expect the yuan to continue sliding, with ING and CIBC forecasting it to touch 6.3 per dollar, which will be its weakest since September 2012 and will mark a close-to-4% tumble in the currency this year, which would be unprecedented." source: Yuan Continues Slide, and It Hasn't Hit Bottom

http://i.imgur.com/15cMG7u.png

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


While the stop can theoretically be moved to just below the April 22nd low of 6.2338, since it's Friday, it might be best to wait until after the weekend to see how trading opens on Sunday.
Ruble Climbs on Less Severe Sanctions

The Russian ruble is up about 1% today after the announcement of US sanctions that are less severe than was originally feared by Moscow.

http://i.imgur.com/IfVi91D.png


The ruble rose (USD/RUB fell) to 35.85 from 36.05 against the US dollar within minutes of the news from the White House.

"The punitive measures impose travel bans and asset freezes on companies and officials and also tighten licensing requirements for certain hi-tech exports to Russia. But they do not impose sanctions on specific sectors of Russia's economy and leave the state-held natural gas giant Gazprom untouched." source: AFP

http://i.imgur.com/DAylKBH.png


A short USD/RUB placed at current levels could target that 34.75 low from April 1st, with a stop above the April 15th high of 36.30.
Quoting Jason Rogers
"The tumble in China's yuan is showing no signs of letting up, with the currency falling near daily for three straight months as the economy slows, fueling fears that the slide has further to go.

"Analysts and economists expect the yuan to continue sliding, with ING and CIBC forecasting it to touch 6.3 per dollar, which will be its weakest since September 2012 and will mark a close-to-4% tumble in the currency this year, which would be unprecedented." source: Yuan Continues Slide, and It Hasn't Hit Bottom

http://i.imgur.com/15cMG7u.png
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


While the stop can theoretically be moved to just below the April 22nd low of 6.2338, since it's Friday, it might be best to wait until after the weekend to see how trading opens on Sunday.

http://i.imgur.com/yBZfCdJ.png
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


This Chinese Yuan short trade from two weeks ago (long USD/CNH at 6.2193 on April 17th) is now up over 400 pips and the stop can be moved to just under the April 23rd low of 6.23485 locking in over 150 pips of profit.
While the Russian Central Bank has continued spending to defend the value of the ruble, "April's currency interventions by the Central Bank are the smallest since October last year.

http://i.imgur.com/pI2tBul.png

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


"The Central Bank threw $2.4 billion into shoring up the ruble in April, 9 times less than the $22.3 billion it spent to support the Russian currency in March." source: Central Bank Spending to Defend Ruble Falls Ninefold in April

That could indicate that the Central Bank believes the ruble has found a bottom, and that USD/RUB might fall from current levels is support of the USD/RUB short trade placed last week.

Quoting Jason Rogers
"The punitive measures impose travel bans and asset freezes on companies and officials and also tighten licensing requirements for certain hi-tech exports to Russia. But they do not impose sanctions on specific sectors of Russia's economy and leave the state-held natural gas giant Gazprom untouched." source: AFP

http://i.imgur.com/DAylKBH.png

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


A short USD/RUB...
Strategy Video: Is This a Tradable USDJPY Breakout?

Inserted Video
Quoting Jason Rogers
Strategy Video: Is This a Tradable USDJPY Breakout? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPQIdZU6pQA
WOW.Ok i got shocked.I havent seen those setups .Thanks a lot for this video Jason you help me a lot.
Quoting BogiFX
{quote} WOW.Ok i got shocked.I havent seen those setups .Thanks a lot for this video Jason you help me a lot.
My pleasure Bogi

Let me know if you'd like to see analysis of a particular currency. Lately, I've been watching both the Chinese yuan and Russian ruble with interest.
The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -3.61 as 22% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -5.01; 17% of open positions were long.

https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati..._Picture_1.png


Long positions are 16.0% higher than yesterday and 10.7% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 16.3% lower than yesterday and 11.2% below levels seen last week.

https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati...0000_i1029.png


We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the EURUSD may continue higher.
Quoting Jason Rogers
{quote} My pleasure Bogi Let me know if you'd like to see analysis of a particular currency. Lately, I've been watching both the Chinese yuan and Russian ruble with interest.
Sure i will.I see that guy shares analyes on youtube everyday.
Why You Should Care About Low Volatility

Bloomberg analysts have written at length over the past few days about possible causes behind the "death of volatility".

But there's good news! Low volatility is a blessing in disguise for most forex traders. This Wednesday and Thursday, the analysts at DailyFX are hosting a couple of free webinars to show you how to take advantage of current market conditions.

Low-Volatility Trading: The Two-Hour Trade Week
Wednesday, 14 May, 2014 10:00 GMT
In this webinar, Jeremy Wagner and David De Ferranti will show you how to find effective low-volatility strategies and automate your trades for big opportunities on a tight timeline. Register for Free.

Low-Volatility Trading: The Hunt for Breakouts
Thursday, 15 May, 2014 04:00 GMT

In this webinar, Jeremy and David combine an effective range-bound strategy, impending global economic news and aggressive trade management to hunt for coming breakouts. Register for Free.
Strategy Video: Will EZ GDP and US CPI Data Feed or Reverse EURUSD Breakdown?

Inserted Video
Major Shift Points to Euro Weakness versus Yen

Retail traders have remained mostly short the Euro versus the Yen as the EUR/JPY exchange rate trades near important highs.

https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati...Picture_18.png



Yet in the past week we’ve seen long interest jump 34 percent and total longs are now at their highest levels in over two years.

https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati...Picture_12.png



The material swing in sentiment warns of continued losses—particularly as we’ve seen a similar turn in EUR/USD.

https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati...Picture_14.png

Quoting Jason Rogers
Major Shift Points to Euro Weakness versus Yen Retail traders have remained mostly short the Euro versus the Yen as the EUR/JPY exchange rate trades near important highs. {image} Yet in the past week we’ve seen long interest jump 34 percent and total longs are now at their highest levels in over two years. {image} The material swing in sentiment warns of continued losses—particularly as we’ve seen a similar turn in EUR/USD. {image}
Why not update your SSi every hour like most companies who provide information on their order books do? Why only update every Thursday and twice a day in your DailyFX Plus? AND Just FYI I'm sure you know this BUT if what order books are true on other sites the majority of Retali traders got wiped on the EUR since most of them were long (again according to order book publications).
It's me...
Quoting AgentFx
{quote} Why not update your SSi every hour like most companies who provide information on their order books do?
Hi AgentFx,

Thanks for the suggestion SSI! I'll pass it onto the DailyFX team


Quoting AgentFx
AND Just FYI I'm sure you know this BUT if what order books are true on other sites the majority of Retali traders got wiped on the EUR since most of them were long (again according to order book publications).
The latest SSI data show that while net short positioning has decreased from last week, it still stands at -1.25.

https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati...0000_i1029.png


While SSI is still negative, the fact that crowds are less short than they were previously can be seen as a bearish signal.
Top Events on Economic Calendar Include GBP, FOMC Minutes

Here's an excerpt from David Maycotte's article on DailyFX.com about key forex events this week:

http://i.imgur.com/DCy1i6x.png

DailyFX analysts will be covering both events this week in the Live Trading Room.
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