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  • #141
  • Nov 30, 2011 3:03am Nov 30, 2011 3:03am
Quoting hayseed
hey aaron..... sorry, don't have "a more authoritative statistics" reference.... do seem to remember a mark twain quote about them however......

Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."


//---
//---

some markets might spend years or decades in very tight ranges, lumber, corn, soybeans and such.....

[url="http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/"]other...
My key definition of a range is I go to the monthly, weekly and daily charts and I slap on a trend line. If that line is flat on all three, I say it is ranging and I am happy to take bets going both directions. If it is flat(ish) on the daily, but not on the weekly or the monthly, then I trade with the prevailing trend. If the weekly and the monthly have a different opinion on what is happening I spend a lot of time trying to figure out the fundamentals behind it.

I typically fail at figuring out the fundamentals but this keeps me out of the trade long enough that the trend usually figures out if it is coming or going.

As for the mathematical model... total BS. But I like BS and I find it useful from time to time. And most importantly, trading with the trend on pullbacks and trading the range in the direction of the long term trend (with or without the support of a BS model) are two of three best trades that exist.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #142
  • Nov 30, 2011 7:46am Nov 30, 2011 7:46am
Quoting JR97
exactly. It was about 10 years ago when a buddy of mine gave me his copy. He said "here's some toilet paper. enjoy." I'm surprised he forked out because he was a skeptic of such things, but I guess he fell for the salesmanship as well. So luckily for me, he bought it before I pulled the trigger and saved me some coin.
here's some tp...hah, nice. that's right on.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #143
  • Nov 30, 2011 6:12pm Nov 30, 2011 6:12pm
What a fascinating discussion about me! Thank you everyone!
  • #144
  • Dec 29, 2011 4:47pm Dec 29, 2011 4:47pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Everyone's entitled to an opinion, the silly pictures and ego trips and cheap shots aren't necessary. No one won actually because it was never a competition except for the one in your own heads. That's trading
  • #145
  • May 13, 2014 7:01am May 13, 2014 7:01am
Quoting Pipalicious
{quote} I developed a concept bar based on renko whereby it would identify/highlight momentum moves based on set criterias...this way visually one could identify objectively specific patterns in momentum...but never got it developed/programed.
Bringing this thread from the dead because I think it has relevance. The truth is you really don't need a time frame to trade, I agree with what you said but a lot of people here have biases and they are sticking by them. Candle sticks and the likes were develop in different time periods and even though they work well enough, I don't think they are the best we can do. In this day of such technological advancement we can do better, and I am convinced of that, if some of the best traders like DOW and Wyckoff and Livermore were still alive in this modern age I don't believe they would be using a lot of what we do. But no one is willing to hear any different ideas or views from the ones they are use to. In my eyes it's a shame because there are good ideas and programmers here, they just never get together some how.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #146
  • May 15, 2014 9:56am May 15, 2014 9:56am
Quoting saneblane
{quote} Bringing this thread from the dead because I think it has relevance. The truth is you really don't need a time frame to trade, I agree with what you said but a lot of people here have biases and they are sticking by them. Candle sticks and the likes were develop in different time periods and even though they work well enough, I don't think they are the best we can do. In this day of such technological advancement we can do better, and I am convinced of that, if some of the best traders like DOW and Wyckoff and Livermore were still alive...
I agree totally. It reminds me of a conversation i had a long time with someone who helped me tremendously (you know who you are).
We where discussing about advancements and how many tend to 'reinvent the wheel' as opposed to improving its efficiency.
If our main mode of transport was the horse and we wanted to 'improve' how quickly we could get around then the majority of people would want a "Faster Horse". Yet back then try to imagine how much ridicule there was when the car was invented. Same goes today, same will be in a 100 years. Efficiency is what matters.
  • #147
  • May 15, 2014 10:31am May 15, 2014 10:31am
CandleSticks
You Must Love CandleSticks
  • #148
  • May 15, 2014 11:35am May 15, 2014 11:35am
Quoting AmirShahiN
CandleSticks

Candle sticks are good no doubt, but they are only one way of looking at price. You can look at it from different perspective and still come to the same conclusion or you can look at price from a different perspective and come to a faster conclusion. Price is the most important thing in the market but it's also one of the least studied thing. It is also good to note that the market doesn't care how you view it,it's going to do the same thing regardless. The smaller time frames lead the bigger time frames, but when they disagree that's when the real trouble starts, and that's only one of the problems that happen using timeframes on a chart. You can still trade it successful of coarse and if it works for you then you can ignore my post,but just giving my 2 cents.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #149
  • May 15, 2014 11:50am May 15, 2014 11:50am
Quoting saneblane
{quote} Bringing this thread from the dead because I think it has relevance. The truth is you really don't need a time frame to trade, I agree with what you said but a lot of people here have biases and they are sticking by them. Candle sticks and the likes were develop in different time periods and even though they work well enough, I don't think they are the best we can do. In this day of such technological advancement we can do better, and I am convinced of that, if some of the best traders like DOW and Wyckoff and Livermore were still alive...
I agree with you as well. I do a lot of analysis on price “frequency”. “Periodicity” in which we choose to view the data is selective by our choosing. The raw market data is the same, we decide how we want organize it.

The data fit for the task of viewing TF Periodicity is governed by “Chronologic time”, a series of data. If you remove the periodicity, and deal with the data alone, you eliminate data in your analysis not created by the market itself.

Many S&R lines e.g. 4h high or low as a resistance area. What makes it resistance or support? What real piece of market data/info is causing this? It only appears to be resistance because that’s where you chose to section/cut off your data to view it in 4hr sequences. If I created a 4h 25m chart The H&L of 4h 25m would be S&R from my perspective. Would my S&R be anymore valid or less valid than the next person using a 4hr chart?

Real market data/info/feed back didn’t place it there. It’s not really “market information”. It’s only an obstacle, because we put it there. Unless it’s supported by real market generated info, it only appears to be an obstacle. If you remove the chronological restraint, and just have Price+Time, you remove the perceptions “you” imposed on the market, and you can deal with the raw data, time & price. And you’re left with “Frequency”, which eliminates the some of the noise we ourselves have put upon our data.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #150
  • May 15, 2014 11:52am May 15, 2014 11:52am
Quoting mzvega
{quote} I agree with you as well. I do a lot of analysis on price “frequency”. “Periodicity” in which we choose to view the data is selective by our choosing. The raw market data is the same, we decide how we want organize it. The data fit for the task of viewing TF Periodicity is governed by “Chronologic time”, a series of data. If you remove the periodicity, and deal with the data alone, you eliminate data in your analysis not created by the market itself. Many S&R lines e.g. 4h high or low as a resistance area. What makes it resistance or support?...

Interesting that's one way of looking at it. My way is a bit different but it's always good to hear other people's take on things. Thanks
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #151
  • May 15, 2014 11:56am May 15, 2014 11:56am
Quoting saneblane
{quote} Candle sticks are good no doubt, but they are only one way of looking at price. You can look at it from different perspective and still come to the same conclusion or you can look at price from a different perspective and come to a faster conclusion. Price is the most important thing in the market but it's also one of the least studied thing. It is also good to note that the market doesn't care how you view it,it's going to do the same thing regardless. The smaller time frames lead the bigger time frames, but when they disagree that's when...
Yep .watching charts and candles is not the only way to view the market.i would suggest as a very good exercise to spend time just watching the quote price.theres a lot of information in those quotes.if enough time is spent you can scalp the quotes .i agree look at this fx from different perspectives .
  • #152
  • May 15, 2014 12:24pm May 15, 2014 12:24pm
Quoting diceman555
{quote} Yep .watching charts and candles is not the only way to view the market.i would suggest as a very good exercise to spend time just watching the quote price.theres a lot of information in those quotes.if enough time is spent you can scalp the quotes .i agree look at this fx from different perspectives .

Another good post. I suspect different methods of trading would be bias towards a different way to view the market, but since all of us are presented with the chart as "the market" and our eyes get drawn towards certain things we never move beyond that.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #153
  • May 15, 2014 3:42pm May 15, 2014 3:42pm
Quoting mzvega
{quote} I agree with you as well. I do a lot of analysis on price “frequency”. “Periodicity” in which we choose to view the data is selective by our choosing. The raw market data is the same, we decide how we want organize it. The data fit for the task of viewing TF Periodicity is governed by “Chronologic time”, a series of data. If you remove the periodicity, and deal with the data alone, you eliminate data in your analysis not created by the market itself. Many S&R lines e.g. 4h high or low as a resistance area. What makes it resistance or support?...
Vega, how long have you been trading, and is your husband's name Vincent? If it is we will not talk about feet.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #154
  • May 15, 2014 5:59pm May 15, 2014 5:59pm
Quoting saneblane
{quote} Candle sticks are good no doubt, but they are only one way of looking at price. You can look at it from different perspective and still come to the same conclusion or you can look at price from a different perspective and come to a faster conclusion. Price is the most important thing in the market but it's also one of the least studied thing. It is also good to note that the market doesn't care how you view it,it's going to do the same thing regardless. The smaller time frames lead the bigger time frames, but when they disagree that's when...
First Of All If CandleSticks Were Something Worth The Way All people Know and Lock at theme, Then All 96% Losers of Forex must be Milioner by now
The Way Those 96% Lock at CandleSticks is Totaly Wrong and it only Good For Trash !
And Now My View and I must say CandleSticks are The Most Important Part For Analysing Markets But Not The Way All People Lock at Theme
CandleSticks Must Analyses With Maathematic Formulas
and one Advice From me Forget aboout.. Hammer..Engulfing...Shooting Star and All of Those Trash's
You Must Lock at Candlesticks by The Way We Call it Outside The box
You Must Love CandleSticks
  • #155
  • May 15, 2014 7:44pm May 15, 2014 7:44pm
Quoting AmirShahiN
{quote}CandleSticks are The Most Important Part For Analysing Markets But Not The Way All People Lock at Theme CandleSticks Must Analyses With Maathematic Formulas and one Advice From me Forget aboout.. Hammer..Engulfing...Shooting Star and All of Those Trash's You Must Lock at Candlesticks by The Way We Call it Outside The box
Ok so you look at candlesticks from a more mathematical standpoint? I guess that is one way to look at it too. At the end of the day I think the most important thing is doing what is best for you, some people are fine with candle sticks and others like myself know that there are other ways of looking at price and more efficient ways of getting information. to each his own I guess.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #156
  • May 15, 2014 8:07pm May 15, 2014 8:07pm
Quoting mzvega
{quote}. Many S&R lines e.g. 4h high or low as a resistance area. What makes it resistance or support? What real piece of market data/info is causing this? It only appears to be resistance because that’s where you chose to section/cut off your data to view it in 4hr sequences. If I created a 4h 25m chart The H&L of 4h 25m would be S&R from my perspective. Would my S&R be anymore valid or less valid than the next person using a 4hr chart? Real market data/info/feed back didn’t place it there. It’s not really “market information”. It’s only an obstacle,...

You know it's interesting you said that because I said a few weeks ago that the market doesn't care about S/R and I got in a little argument. But the truth is the market doesn't care about a thing. If you say that it cares about support and resistance then when price breaks it would be fair to say that the market stopped caring, and if you look at it that way then you would see how crazy that sounds. There are other things that we put weight on that the market doesn't care about at all. At all place on the chart you only want to know how much buying and selling is taking place that's all, the rest is just words that the market don't care about.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #157
  • May 15, 2014 8:37pm May 15, 2014 8:37pm
To me time is important and is real.I trade swings and I know it takes 7days to 30days for my trades to hit profit.
Had I closed them early they would of all been 90% losers.
Sure price can move 100pips in 1hr and same in one week however more often then not it takes certain days weeks for certain distance to cover.
If you disagree then look to further then weekly candles.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #158
  • May 15, 2014 9:31pm May 15, 2014 9:31pm
Quoting Davit
To me time is important and is real.I trade swings and I know it takes 7days to 30days for my trades to hit profit. Had I closed them early they would of all been 90% losers. Sure price can move 100pips in 1hr and same in one week however more often then not it takes certain days weeks for certain distance to cover. If you disagree then look to further then weekly candles.

Lol I don't think it's about right and wrong I think it's about different ways to see the market. A candle stick of coarse represents a time period starting from open to close and that's fine and it's one way to see price behavior. Also I don't think anyone is saying that time is not real at all, I am typing this and no matter what I do a second passes the same, and it's the same in the market. The thing with candle sticks though is that you get your signals at the end of period, to over come this inefficiency, Multi time frame analysis was made,to try and over come this shortcoming and make it a little more efficient,but it still has caveats.Like I said before If you can trade it that's fine, but taking a trade or exiting a trade from a perspective of time alone is not the only basis one can trade on. You see this more often when the market is falling, when the market is crashing no one ask what timeframe to exit on, or hardly anyone waits for candle to close to pull out money, they just get out because they are making a judgement from other means than a perspective of time. the same thing can be mastered as a trading style and means of trading, but that's only one example, few traders on here gave a few other example. It's not a right or wrong thing, or real or fake, it's another way of seeing the market that's all.

These guys are showing a new way of using candlesticks, they call it candlestick math, again it's a way of making it more efficient and they also discuss the cons they face trading candles (timeframe) check it out. I would advise to watch from the top though it's interesting stuff.

Inserted Video
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #159
  • Edited 10:36pm May 15, 2014 10:15pm | Edited 10:36pm
Quoting Davit
To me time is important and is real.I trade swings and I know it takes 7days to 30days for my trades to hit profit. Had I closed them early they would of all been 90% losers. Sure price can move 100pips in 1hr and same in one week however more often then not it takes certain days weeks for certain distance to cover. If you disagree then look to further then weekly candles.
Davit, I believe you misunderstand me. Time is very "Real".
"How" you look at things, affects the way you "perceive" things to be.
It’s how you look at the data itself.

By segmenting your data into "time intervals" (30m, 1hr, 4hr, etc.) each segment, the beginning & end of the time series data creates the “high & low". Instead of looking at the data as “continuous “flow of data. You create “breaks” in your data, by the tf periodicity you choose. These breaks appear as S&R. I chose not to put those restraints on my analysis. I keep my data analysis limited real market “observables. I never said or implied “Time” was not real. Let’s not get it twisted……………..
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #160
  • May 15, 2014 10:22pm May 15, 2014 10:22pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Vega, how long have you been trading, and is your husband's name Vincent? If it is we will not talk about feet.
I started in 2004, but I didn't consistently start trading actively until @ 2006.
"........Vincent?" that's one of my all time favorites!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
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