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  • #5,021
  • May 15, 2014 3:11am May 15, 2014 3:11am
Quoting LarryDarrell
On the other hand: my target ECad at 4875 was hit after 480 pips, which is nice.
Great patience... have been stopped out several times by trying to long this "§$§$%. Entered USD/CHF short. Finally get a good trade or quit for today LOL
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #5,022
  • May 15, 2014 3:34am May 15, 2014 3:34am
Quoting LarryDarrell
Good morning. {quote} Thank you, great post! Just a question, because I'm not totally sure I get the connection: you expect bonds to fall because interest rates and yields go up as a reaction to the coming inflation, correct? Atm yield is slipping, bonds are bought (as far as I'm aware, complete noob here), but you expect this to turn in the future. Basically you as well could invest in equities, right? I really like your approach to the topic and your ideas on timing, will follow this closely.
Yes on bonds I am countering, just added some bund shorts @ 146, expecting the huge drops in interest rates over the years will stop and turn.
German 10 year bonds are now giving you 1,4% which is fine with current deflationary thoughts (negative inflation) but it is very very low if you think inflation will be picking up.

On equities no, in principal financial markets compete with each other so low interest rates (high bond prices) attract investors from bonds towards equities, would interest rates be let's say 7-8% there would be u huge outflow from equities towards bond markets.
In the US they are actually intervening in bond markets because they fear that the recovery would induce a huge rise in longer term bonds rates.
Extremely low interest on bond markets has been the main reason why equities have been doing so good.
So if interest rates gets higher (falling bond prices) the big money (pension funds and the like) will be very eager to sell equities and buy bonds which would crash equity markets.
Current lows in interest rates might push equities even further up but it is the end of a very long road, so equity spiking up might be an ideal situation to short them, look at interest rates for clues on that.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #5,023
  • May 15, 2014 3:41am May 15, 2014 3:41am
Guys did you see that move in the DAX this morning? went up 70 then straight down 100!!! Any ideas what caused that?
  • #5,024
  • May 15, 2014 3:44am May 15, 2014 3:44am
Quoting USD-Bear
expecting the huge drops in interest rates over the years will stop and turn..
Do you really think they can achieve this? Aren't all the governments and the sheeple in too much debt?
Look at Japan, they never managed to raise rates...
  • #5,025
  • May 15, 2014 3:44am May 15, 2014 3:44am
Quoting jonnypants
Guys did you see that move in the DAX this morning? went up 70 then straight down 100!!! Any ideas what caused that?
look at my previous message
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #5,026
  • May 15, 2014 3:47am May 15, 2014 3:47am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} look at my previous message
So it was bond/bund related? How can I follow this news?
Thanks
  • #5,027
  • May 15, 2014 3:55am May 15, 2014 3:55am
Quoting jonnypants
{quote} Do you really think they can achieve this? Aren't all the governments and the sheeple in too much debt? Look at Japan, they never managed to raise rates...
they want to leave rates at a low (controlled) level because bond markets would panic if they wouldn't and no they won't succeed.
On the longer term they need inflation to solve the huge debts.
There is no easy way out of this self induced mess.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #5,028
  • May 15, 2014 3:56am May 15, 2014 3:56am
Quoting jonnypants
Guys did you see that move in the DAX this morning? went up 70 then straight down 100!!! Any ideas what caused that?
buyers and sellers, don't overcomplicate it.. lol..

but on a serious note, bears stepped in at ATH , no one bought it.. I'll look for weakness around 975x, maybe it's a trap, maybe it isn't..
Patience is a virtue...
  • #5,029
  • May 15, 2014 4:00am May 15, 2014 4:00am
Quoting jonnypants
{quote} So it was bond/bund related? How can I follow this news? Thanks
reuters, bloomberg or something like this

http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds...advanced-chart
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #5,030
  • May 15, 2014 4:05am May 15, 2014 4:05am
Quoting USD-Bear
On equities no, in principal financial markets compete with each other so low interest rates (high bond prices) attract investors from bonds towards equities, would interest rates be let's say 7-8% there would be u huge outflow from equities towards bond markets.
, okay, totally embarrased now. Of course. I always confuse bond rates and yields.

One thing I learned here
Quoting Kambooj
you basically draw trendlines around the points on the RSI and use the support / resistance areas to gage when is the best time to go in a trade. What you are doing is correct.
and would like to share:

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Looks like we have a confirmed trend change on EU. This is from a weekly chart and if you overlay the dates you will see that this signal is quite reliable. Last change was in August 2012, before that June '11. I'm still long with a minor position for 381x, but will concentrate on shorting the rallies.
Fail better.
  • #5,031
  • May 15, 2014 4:31am May 15, 2014 4:31am
CPI data this afternoon might be a play changer:

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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #5,032
  • May 15, 2014 4:59am May 15, 2014 4:59am
Quoting USD-Bear
showing a double top @ MPP might signal an EU retrace, would consider longs if it happens USDOLLAR M15: {image}
no USDOLLAR double top, no EU retrace still flat here

USDOLLAR M15:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #5,033
  • Edited 9:04am May 15, 2014 8:24am | Edited 9:04am
EJ looks decent R:R down here. Long from 139.14, sl 139.05. Target 139.93

Thought 139 would be a bit harder to break, 138.75 maybe better but will wait until bulls show a stronger hand
  • #5,034
  • Edited 9:05am May 15, 2014 8:45am | Edited 9:05am
Quoting hadox
{quote} buyers and sellers, don't overcomplicate it.. lol.. but on a serious note, bears stepped in at ATH , no one bought it.. I'll look for weakness around 975x, maybe it's a trap, maybe it isn't..
looking for clues around 964x/2x..

a chart fwiw;
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Patience is a virtue...
  • #5,035
  • May 15, 2014 10:03am May 15, 2014 10:03am
Shorted the top of this, let us see how far it goes:

https://charts.mql5.com/4/716/usdchf...-markets-2.png
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #5,036
  • May 15, 2014 10:12am May 15, 2014 10:12am
Quoting Hickson
Shorted the top of this, let us see how far it goes: {image}
. Short from 8941 also. Got conflicting signals, bullish biased, but bear signal. Target 8868, kind of a compromise...
All in all a good day, EA free trade and 1/4 off. GU: out of 1/2, rest at be and target 6910. Unfortunatly closed my AU short too early.
UJ: aha! waiting.
Fail better.
  • #5,037
  • May 15, 2014 10:21am May 15, 2014 10:21am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} . Short from 8941 also. Got conflicting signals, bullish biased, but bear signal. Target 8868, kind of a compromise... All in all a good day, EA free trade and 1/4 off. GU: out of 1/2, rest at be and target 6910. Unfortunatly closed my AU short too early. UJ: aha! waiting.
I do not know, the whole USD/CHF monthly is in a down trend. The last days have been very bullish, but all in all the trend might be resumed after today. E/A short and NZD/USD ruined it all again, but I think E/A might drop a bit further before rising and NZD/USD is a mystery, but never underestimate the power of a carry currency.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #5,038
  • May 15, 2014 10:23am May 15, 2014 10:23am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} . UJ: aha! waiting.
Buy order at 101.37 was filled. SL 101.00. Maybe too obvious for the bastards LOL
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #5,039
  • May 15, 2014 10:30am May 15, 2014 10:30am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} I do not know, the whole USD/CHF monthly is in a down trend. .
Right. But UC and EU are negatively correlated, and if EU has turned (I think so), UC should as well. Plus: one side is CHF which has an official bottom. My Echf trades are not very sexy and sluggish, but I actually think I'll wait for 1.30 or so...
Got a pending long UJ at 101.28, but kinda hope it doesn't get filled. EU: tight s/l short at 3718, this one is as good as dead...
Anyway: closing shop for today.

'Good night, good fight'.
LD
Fail better.
  • #5,040
  • May 15, 2014 11:58am May 15, 2014 11:58am
Quoting hadox
{quote} euro bulls tried yd, but failed.. waiting until next week with the euro.. {quote} cable near 1.672x, once again it's either a bounce or else I'm looking at 1.666x which obviously is the next area I have.. not much to do really, just following the line of least resistance.. {image}
a bounce so far, updated the levels a bit.. so far it's just ping pong in my charts, maybe some clues tomorrow/next week I guess..


Quoting hadox
{quote} looking for clues around 964x/2x.. a chart fwiw; {image}
rejected for now, we could revisit 975x again, but fridays sucks, so waiting until next week..


stops in place, and the sun is shining again, going to enjoy it while it last..

enjoy the rest of the week everyone, catch you next week..
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Patience is a virtue...
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