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Surfing Risk Intraday - Volume Profile and Order flow

  • #261
  • May 14, 2014 6:17am May 14, 2014 6:17am
S&P500 trade plan from a volume profile perspective for May 14th posted, including chart of the last 3 sessions - http://risksurfer.com/daily-trade-plan
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #262
  • May 14, 2014 6:24am May 14, 2014 6:24am
Quoting 236dave
{quote} RS - This might be asking too much, but when I do get more time, would it be possible to post some old charts and have a go at working out what the confluence was for giving that signal?
That's completely fine with me, best way to learn in my opinion is performing postmortems on both winning and losing trades, rather than reading through text books or my posts here

Quoting 236dave
{quote} Anthony at Stage 5 has been very helpful. My demo account has been making good progress and I am now looking to go live, although I am struggling a bit with my bank understanding the funding instructions. I might send a separate e mail to RS and ask for some help on this, if that is ok? BTW - Is there something special being setup for RS customers,? Would it be worthwhile hanging back on my live account to see whats on offer? Regards Dave {image} {image} {image}
Awesome work, that's quite an achievement considering you're only doing this part time at the moment. Funding question already sorted via email. Regarding S5 there's no need to hang back, anything that might be implemented in the future would be passed on to RS/S5 customers both new and existing
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #263
  • May 15, 2014 6:20am May 15, 2014 6:20am
S&P500 trade plan from a volume profile perspective for May 15th posted, including charts - http://risksurfer.com/daily-trade-plan

Recap posted for yesterdays trade plan - http://risksurfer.com/recap
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #264
  • May 15, 2014 6:34am May 15, 2014 6:34am
Hey RS, how are you coming up with your hypothesis... mixture of experience and current market fundmentals etc?
  • #265
  • May 16, 2014 3:36pm May 16, 2014 3:36pm
Quoting MCRotter
Hey RS, how are you coming up with your hypothesis... mixture of experience and current market fundmentals etc?
Yeah I guess so

I just try to visualize the 3 most likely outcomes

Most important thing is to focus on the participants

-those who are long and want to exit
-those who are short and want to exit
-those who want to be long
-those who want to be short

and the likely aggression/activity of each at certain key levels
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #266
  • Edited May 17, 2014 3:36am May 16, 2014 4:10pm | Edited May 17, 2014 3:36am
Hi RS,

I just wanted to ask you a few questions about your volume data/volume profiles for the fx market
as you seem quite knowledgeable in this area.

When plotting volume profiles for the fx pairs, do you use spot/tick volume or cme futures volume?

Is there a huge difference between the above 2 volume datafeeds in terms of levels/patterns on the profile?

Lastly in terms of plotting volume profiles in general, is the a huge difference bewteen
tick volume vs 1 min bar volume?

Thanks
David
  • #267
  • May 19, 2014 6:31am May 19, 2014 6:31am
Quoting david786
Hi RS, I just wanted to ask you a few questions about your volume data/volume profiles for the fx market as you seem quite knowledgeable in this area. When plotting volume profiles for the fx pairs, do you use spot/tick volume or cme futures volume? Is there a huge difference between the above 2 volume datafeeds in terms of levels/patterns on the profile? Lastly in terms of plotting volume profiles in general, is the a huge difference bewteen tick volume vs 1 min bar volume? Thanks David
I use the CME volume personally since I am trading the FX Futures not spot FX, If there was a way to get data for the total worldwide volume going through at each price, then it would be perfectly usable but as far as I know this isn't readily available. The MT4 'volume' is really just an estimation of volume based on the price movement, although it can give a good overview of the high and low volume zones, I wouldn't use it to pinpoint specific levels to trade off of etc

The tick volume provided by IQfeed or ESignal etc is the most reliable data you can get, 1 minute data is obviously missing some of the detail which shouldn't affect the profile visually. However I have experienced occasional differences in terms of the location of VPOC, value area etc when I use minute data, so to be on the safe side I store 20 days of tick data, and several years of 1 minute data, meaning the most recent (and most relevant) data is in 'high definition'
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #268
  • May 19, 2014 6:32am May 19, 2014 6:32am
S&P500 trade plan from a volume profile perspective for May 19th posted, including charts - http://risksurfer.com/daily-trade-plan

Recap posted for Friday's trade plan - http://risksurfer.com/recap
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #269
  • May 21, 2014 6:22am May 21, 2014 6:22am
S&P500 trade plan from a volume profile perspective for May 21st posted, including charts - http://risksurfer.com/daily-trade-plan

Recap posted for yesterday's trade plan - http://risksurfer.com/recap
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #270
  • May 22, 2014 6:13am May 22, 2014 6:13am
S&P500 trade plan from a volume profile perspective for May 22nd posted, including charts - http://risksurfer.com/daily-trade-plan

Recap posted for yesterday's trade plan - http://risksurfer.com/recap
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #271
  • May 22, 2014 12:02pm May 22, 2014 12:02pm
I just created an account to stop by and offer my thanks for this thread.

I came across VSA 2 weeks ago, which lead me on to volume profiling last weekend, and I've had a busy few days this week learning and trying to put it all together. Your posts on here have been a great help. I was a little at sea with it for the first couple of days, as I tried to get my head around it all, but today I've ripped off over 250 pips on demo using the concepts combined with my existing knowledge of supply and demand. It might be a flash in the pan, but we'll see if I can keep it up.

The biggest thing I've taken away from it is being able to plan my trades properly in advance, instead of just waiting for price action to develop at what I thought was a significant area, and then trying to react to it. The ability to know in advance that trades are likely to be drawn towards high volume nodes has been invaluable.

I didn't much like the volume profile indicators that were available for MT4 - most of them didn't have the features I wanted, and took a long time to compute the volume data. Additionally, none of them seemed to offer the ability to generate composite profiles.

To that end, I've developed my own suite of indicators over the last few days. They're very much in the alpha stage at the moment, but when I've ironed out the bugs and tidied up the code, I'll share them, as my way of giving back.

Currently, there is a daily profile indicator, custom profile indicator, and composite indicator.

The composite indicator displays on the right of the screen the total volume history to date as a heat map, whilst on the left it displays a rolling composite. The rolling composite defaults to the last 90 days, but you can define your own period by drawing a rectangle on the chart and then clicking on it.

The custom profile also allows you to draw rectangles anywhere on the chart and then click on them, and will generate a profile for that region.

Here's a quick screenshot of the progress to date.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #272
  • May 22, 2014 3:15pm May 22, 2014 3:15pm
Quoting Hoodlum
I just created an account to stop by and offer my thanks for this thread. I came across VSA 2 weeks ago, which lead me on to volume profiling last weekend, and I've had a busy few days this week learning and trying to put it all together. Your posts on here have been a great help. I was a little at sea with it for the first couple of days, as I tried to get my head around it all, but today I've ripped off over 250 pips on demo using the concepts combined with my existing knowledge of supply and demand. It might be a flash in the pan, but we'll see...
Hey Hoodlum, welcome to FF and to the thread, many thanks for your post and kind words.
Brilliant with your performance so far, I'm glad you're able to implement some of these concepts even when they're quite new to you, let alone come up with your own trade ideas, well done. Just don't be too frustrated if you don't achieve the same performance every day, somedays it just doesn't work out in your favour even when you plan and execute your trades to perfection! It's certainly a good sign to have early success though.

Quoting Hoodlum
I didn't much like the volume profile indicators that were available for MT4 - most of them didn't have the features I wanted, and took a long time to compute the volume data. Additionally, none of them seemed to offer the ability to generate composite profiles. To that end, I've developed my own suite of indicators over the last few days. They're very much in the alpha stage at the moment, but when I've ironed out the bugs and tidied up the code, I'll share them, as my way of giving back. Currently, there is a daily profile indicator, custom profile...
That's a pretty amazing looking indicator considering the software it's running on, I had hoped that this thread would encourage much smarter people than me to make this kind of trading/analysis available to everyone and that's exactly what's happening. Keep up the good work sir, and feel free to post your trades/trade ideas here anytime.

RS
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #273
  • May 22, 2014 3:41pm May 22, 2014 3:41pm
Quoting Hoodlum
I just created an account to stop by and offer my thanks for this thread. I came across VSA 2 weeks ago, which lead me on to volume profiling last weekend, and I've had a busy few days this week learning and trying to put it all together. Your posts on here have been a great help. I was a little at sea with it for the first couple of days, as I tried to get my head around it all, but today I've ripped off over 250 pips on demo using the concepts combined with my existing knowledge of supply and demand. It might be a flash in the pan, but we'll see...
The indicators on the charts are yours? Very good.
  • #274
  • May 23, 2014 6:06am May 23, 2014 6:06am
Cheers RS. By the way, I've seen you make reference a few times over this thread to people supposedly "much smarter than you" - I wouldn't play yourself down too much, you're evidently extremely knowledgeable and are doing very well compared to the vast majority :-) May I ask, how long did it take you to become consistently profitable in the markets? I've only been at it since about January, but the main problem I've had is simply not coming across the right material. I've come on leaps and bounds since I discovered volume profiling, I only wish someone had shown it to me at the start of the year.

I "retired" from being a programmer after 8 years MCRotter, and coding still remains a passion of mine. I knocked these up in the last few days after finding this thread last weekend. I spend as much time messing around writing indicators for MT4 as I do trading. I actually think I enjoy the coding more, but that's only because I'm not winning much at trading yet!

I'll wait until I'm a little more certain of myself before posting up any trade ideas, after I've got a few more weeks experience with this methodology. In the meantime, I'm going to read Mind Over Markets this weekend - I know it's concerned with time profiling as opposed to volume, but I'm interested to learn about the different types of days as denoted by the distribution of price, and what implications these have for the following day. I believe the volume and time distributions are approximately equivalent enough to be used interchangeably in this case, although feel free to correct me if I'm wrong?
  • #275
  • May 23, 2014 6:16am May 23, 2014 6:16am
S&P500 trade plan from a volume profile perspective for May 23rd posted, including charts - http://risksurfer.com/daily-trade-plan

Recap posted for yesterday's trade plan - http://risksurfer.com/recap
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #276
  • May 23, 2014 7:09am May 23, 2014 7:09am
Quoting Hoodlum
Cheers RS. By the way, I've seen you make reference a few times over this thread to people supposedly "much smarter than you" - I wouldn't play yourself down too much, you're evidently extremely knowledgeable and are doing very well compared to the vast majority :-) May I ask, how long did it take you to become consistently profitable in the markets? I've only been at it since about January, but the main problem I've had is simply not coming across the right material. I've come on leaps and bounds since I discovered volume profiling, I only wish...
Haha thanks, I would describe myself as more determined than smart Well consistently profitable maybe a year or so, but I found the step between being 'just about consistently profitable' and being 'comfortably profitable' to be much greater. Joining the Prop firm certainly accelerated my learning and opened my eyes to previously unheard of methods such as Volume profiling or scalping for ticks with using the DOM. It's great that guys like you are having access this stuff right off the bat, I'm happy to be playing a small part in making that happen.
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #277
  • May 23, 2014 7:57am May 23, 2014 7:57am
Quoting Hoodlum
, although feel free to correct me if I'm wrong?
Generally speaking, you are correct
  • #278
  • May 27, 2014 5:24am May 27, 2014 5:24am
Was doing a bit of Googling to try and find any other good VP resources, and came across this - http://www.ranchodinero.com/acme-stu...olume-profile/

The specific thing of interest to me was the "volume profile evolution", where it shows weekly/monthly profiles, but with each day/week within the profile colour coded differently, and overlaid on top of one another. Seems like quite a good way to see at a glance where value is building in a sequential chronological order?

Just debating whether there's any mileage in adding it to my own indicator, was interested in hearing some input from those with much more experience of using VP than me on the usefulness of such a thing (or lack thereof).

Cheers
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  • #279
  • May 27, 2014 6:31am May 27, 2014 6:31am
Quoting Hoodlum
Was doing a bit of Googling to try and find any other good VP resources, and came across this - http://www.ranchodinero.com/acme-stu...olume-profile/ The specific thing of interest to me was the "volume profile evolution", where it shows weekly/monthly profiles, but with each day/week within the profile colour coded differently, and overlaid on top of one another. Seems like quite a good way to see at a glance where value is building in a sequential chronological order? Just debating whether there's any mileage in adding it to...
Yep, beautiful charts, I have a similar thing set up for Market Delta:

Each profile represents 1 month, However the shade of green becomes darker as time passes, so I can see where Value has/is shifting too throughout the month

It's great for eyeballing the trend, and looks very pretty

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #280
  • May 27, 2014 6:32am May 27, 2014 6:32am
S&P500 trade plan from a volume profile perspective for May 27th posted, including charts - http://risksurfer.com/daily-trade-plan

Recap posted for previous trade plan - http://risksurfer.com/recap
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
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