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Oktoberfest Nightclub

  • #5,001
  • May 14, 2014 7:42am May 14, 2014 7:42am
Hadox,
what you think about DAX, took a small short 9780. Now SL on BE.
  • #5,002
  • May 14, 2014 7:51am May 14, 2014 7:51am
Quoting theXfiles
Hadox, what you think about DAX, took a small short 9780. Now SL on BE.
I think you have a very good entry... but I'm still waiting for some clues to be honest, a daily close under 975x would make me look for weakness I guess.. and/or maybe look for clues around 964x if I miss the train down.. but the dax is quite tricky these days, what are you aiming for?
Patience is a virtue...
  • #5,003
  • May 14, 2014 8:06am May 14, 2014 8:06am
Quoting hadox
{quote} I think you have a very good entry... but I'm still waiting for some clues to be honest, a daily close under 975x would make me look for weakness I guess.. and/or maybe look for clues around 964x if I miss the train down.. but the dax is quite tricky these days, what are you aiming for?
Now the first tp around 9600, would be nice.
  • #5,004
  • May 14, 2014 8:09am May 14, 2014 8:09am
Quoting theXfiles
{quote} Now the first tp around 9600, would be nice.
I see, makes sense..

there is still sitting some intraday bulls at 973x from yd, a close under that area might help your shorts I guess..
Patience is a virtue...
  • #5,005
  • Edited 1:45pm May 14, 2014 8:28am | Edited 1:45pm
Quoting hadox
{quote} I see, makes sense.. there is still sitting some intraday bulls at 973x from yd, a close under that area might help your shorts I guess..
I still hold cable also from 1.6988, I would like to TP around 1.67
  • #5,006
  • May 14, 2014 8:55am May 14, 2014 8:55am
Quoting theXfiles
{quote} I still hold cable also from 1.6988, I would like to TP around 1.67 {image}
yes, lets see..

just curious, what are behind those white boxes? and does the last one show the profit ? I dont have that on my platform, but alot of people are doing the same as you..
Patience is a virtue...
  • #5,007
  • Edited 9:35am May 14, 2014 9:03am | Edited 9:35am
Quoting hadox
{quote} yes, lets see.. just curious, what are behind those white boxes? and does the last one show the profit ? I dont have that on my platform, but alot of people are doing the same as you..
Boxes do not hide anything special, only two positions after half a lot

Edit: If this is not appropriate, will not display next time.
  • #5,008
  • May 14, 2014 9:28am May 14, 2014 9:28am
out of the UJ long with +3 pips, doesn't feel right...
Opened EA long at 4589, tight sl, will long further down if this is hit.
Fail better.
  • #5,009
  • May 14, 2014 9:56am May 14, 2014 9:56am
Quoting theXfiles
{quote} Boxes do not hide anything special, only two positions after half a lot Edit: If this is not appropriate, will not display next time.
thank you.. it just didn't make sense to me, I mean if you can see the profit and the entry, its just math if you wanna know the position.. not that it matter though..

no need to change anything, I was just curious...
Patience is a virtue...
  • #5,010
  • May 14, 2014 10:10am May 14, 2014 10:10am
In MT4 you can set profit as pips or currency. In my case, its better to just post pips, so nobody makes fun of my small size...
AU: free trade now, EA not yet, not the ideal entry and don't trust this mf, another test would be normal. Set tp, though: 5354 .
@Hickson: nice on holding that AN short!
Fail better.
  • #5,011
  • May 14, 2014 10:17am May 14, 2014 10:17am
explains a lot:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A4D05020140514
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #5,012
  • May 14, 2014 11:05am May 14, 2014 11:05am
Quoting hadox
{quote} looking at exactly the same.. we got the retest at 1.370x, and it's rejected for now.. the day is young though, but lets see if bulls have some power.. maybe squeeze some weak shorts, I don't know, could be a trap, time will tell I guess..
bulls are running out of time in my charts, don't think another test of 1.370x is going to hold.. lets see...

Quoting USD-Bear
explains a lot: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A4D05020140514
when I make trading decissions I try not to be biased, and to be honest, reading this, don't change much in my approach.. but what is your take on the article Bear, and do you use it in your decissions?
Patience is a virtue...
  • #5,013
  • May 14, 2014 11:21am May 14, 2014 11:21am
Quoting USD-Bear
explains a lot: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A4D05020140514
The question is: How much of this did the bastards already price in?@Larry: Thanks it is still alive. A pinbar on A/U helps.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #5,014
  • May 14, 2014 12:02pm May 14, 2014 12:02pm
Quoting hadox
{quote} bulls are running out of time in my charts, don't think another test of 1.370x is going to hold.. lets see... {quote} when I make trading decissions I try not to be biased, and to be honest, reading this, don't change much in my approach.. but what is your take on the article Bear, and do you use it in your decissions?
yes, interest rates are most important in all financial moves be it FX, stockmarkets and almost any other asset.
In this case I'm sure (well at least as sure as I can be) that CB's and politics are making a huge mistake.
Instead of letting free market-mechanics do their jobs (which they should do for future healthy economics) they let printing presses (QE) run like hell under the excuse of deflation fear.
They are intervening in interest rates as if economy is something like mathematics.
Everything they have done and still are doing will have huge inflationary consequences imho which will lead to hyperinflation instead of the wanted 2% inflation.
Problem with FX-consequences is that practically all CB's worldwide are doing the same, if it just was the US it would crush the USD and that's it.
What I am doing is starting to invest in everything which profits from inflation eg:
-shorting Bonds
-buying commodities
-having a bullish bias on commodity currencies like AUD/*** en especially NZD/***

Timing though is everything.
A few months to early and it will cost dearly
A few months to late and I will hate running after things and prob. won't (knowing myself)
I've started shorting bonds again and will continue at a pace I can hold on for a while.
For others waiting for inflation to re-appear might be a better policy
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #5,015
  • May 14, 2014 1:25pm May 14, 2014 1:25pm
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} yes, interest rates are most important in all financial moves be it FX, stockmarkets and almost any other asset. In this case I'm sure (well at least as sure as I can be) that CB's and politics are making a huge mistake. Instead of letting free market-mechanics do their jobs (which they should do for future healthy economics) they let printing presses (QE) run like hell under the excuse of deflation fear. They are intervening in interest rates as if economy is something like mathematics. Everything they have done and still are doing will...
very nice post Bear..

I'll prolly have to re-read it a couple of times though, still a long way to go with fundamentals for me, but thanks a lot..
Patience is a virtue...
  • #5,016
  • May 14, 2014 2:35pm May 14, 2014 2:35pm
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} yes, interest rates are most important in all financial moves be it FX, stockmarkets and almost any other asset. In this case I'm sure (well at least as sure as I can be) that CB's and politics are making a huge mistake. Instead of letting free market-mechanics do their jobs (which they should do for future healthy economics) they let printing presses (QE) run like hell under the excuse of deflation fear. They are intervening in interest rates as if economy is something like mathematics. Everything they have done and still are doing will...

Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #5,017
  • May 15, 2014 12:58am May 15, 2014 12:58am
Good morning.

Quoting USD-Bear
What I am doing is starting to invest in everything which profits from inflation eg: -shorting Bonds -buying commodities -having a bullish bias on commodity currencies like AUD/*** en especially NZD/*** Timing though is everything. A few months to early and it will cost dearly
Thank you, great post! Just a question, because I'm not totally sure I get the connection: you expect bonds to fall because interest rates and yields go up as a reaction to the coming inflation, correct? Atm yield is slipping, bonds are bought (as far as I'm aware, complete noob here), but you expect this to turn in the future. Basically you as well could invest in equities, right?
I really like your approach to the topic and your ideas on timing, will follow this closely.
Fail better.
  • #5,018
  • May 15, 2014 2:48am May 15, 2014 2:48am
Nice spike... killed my small EU long and the EA long (after +50 pips, it hurts). Reentered on the EA after a short look at the chart, will add lower.
On the other hand: my target ECad at 4875 was hit after 480 pips, which is nice. Looking for a long entry now, pending shorts are waaay above.
UJ: . My stop would have been hit, so the exit was alright. But now otw to the target, and maybe beyond.
GU: first pending long hit.
UChf: entering short territory as per BB signal.
Fail better.
  • #5,019
  • May 15, 2014 3:04am May 15, 2014 3:04am
Quoting hadox
{quote} bulls are running out of time in my charts, don't think another test of 1.370x is going to hold.. lets see... {quote}..
euro bulls tried yd, but failed.. waiting until next week with the euro..


Quoting hadox
{quote} at the bottom of the zone/cluster atm.. in my charts it's either a bounce or 1.672x .. {image}
cable near 1.672x, once again it's either a bounce or else I'm looking at 1.666x which obviously is the next area I have.. not much to do really, just following the line of least resistance..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 26 KB
Patience is a virtue...
  • #5,020
  • May 15, 2014 3:06am May 15, 2014 3:06am
Quoting LarryDarrell
Nice spike... killed my small EU long and the EA long (after +50 pips, it hurts). Reentered on the EA after a short look at the chart, will add lower. On the other hand: my target ECad at 4875 was hit after 480 pips, which is nice. Looking for a long entry now, pending shorts are waaay above. UJ: . My stop would have been hit, so the exit was alright. But now otw to the target, and maybe beyond. GU: first pending long hit. UChf: entering short territory as per BB signal.
nice one..
Patience is a virtue...
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