The Club! | Page 717 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

Attachments: The Club!
Exit Attachments

The Club!

  • #14,321
  • May 14, 2014 4:58am May 14, 2014 4:58am
Quoting rbetancor
{quote} Yes ... step by step ... people tend to live on the 15M chart ... and that's an error. I do Big TimeFrame maths ... then scale in to 60Min, 15M and sometimes till 5-1M charts for getting the entries ... or getting a clear counter-trend (agains the higher degree TF) scalping oportunity
Thats what i do too ofcourse, just to be clear only becouse my analysis picture is presented from M15 chart it does not mean by any rule that my whole analysis comes from that TF. My analysis is always including all Tfs (except m1 usually) up to daily, but trigger has to come from somewhere, this time it was M15.

Anyways EJ droped nicely, I have exited EU short on BE increase of bulls in leg dont want to risk anything that far down. WIsh i had woken up 1 hour sooner, would be nice profits on GJ EJ and AJ.

Looks like we have some strong stopping volumes on GBP pairs.
  • #14,322
  • May 14, 2014 5:06am May 14, 2014 5:06am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} In my opinion one should not focus too obsessive on the math, since no one on earth was ever able to show/find the underlying math of movements. Sentiment is driving the market, and it can turn everytime without extrinsic trigger. All we can do with math, in my opinion, is playing some "models" and their probability values. But never forget: probability is not certainty. I do know what you are talking about and can understand what you are talking about. But in my opinion, it is a big fault to look at higher or highest TF and say, e.g., "on...
Well said, you dont hear that from many traders : lower tf set higher tfs. In sense they are both leading eachother becouse higher TFs impact decisions of traders on lower tf no matter in which theory you believe becouse simply most traders make analysis from higher tfs. But the triggers of moves are taken from lower tfs for sure. Its like chicken and egg discussion heh.
  • #14,323
  • May 14, 2014 5:18am May 14, 2014 5:18am
I think generally higher TF define or set boundaries for lower TF,
but sometimes in special case or at important level they both may set each other in unison..
  • #14,324
  • May 14, 2014 5:19am May 14, 2014 5:19am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Well said, you dont hear that from many traders : lower tf set higher tfs. In sense they are both leading eachother becouse higher TFs impact decisions of traders on lower tf no matter in which theory you believe becouse simply most traders make analysis from higher tfs. But the triggers of moves are taken from lower tfs for sure. Its like chicken and egg discussion heh.
I think, that the really big boys, which are also part of the herd, are far more less concerned about charts as we are, because they are driven more by fundamental things (at least they think).

The tricky part is, that humans brains are hard wired to the ebb and flow of fear and gread, and the herding behavior.

Even when some big traders trade charts, the outcome, in the long run, is more or less predefined (until social mood changes)


But your example is very good. Maybe we can translate it to the following:

(just an idea)
75% is due to reflections in small TF
25% is due to reflections on long TF charts (call it bias, due to looking in the back mirror)
  • #14,325
  • May 14, 2014 5:21am May 14, 2014 5:21am
Quoting andexQ
I think generally higher TF set lower TF, but sometimes in special case or at important level they both may set each other in unison..
higher TF setting the outcome of lower TF is waaaaaaay to deterministic

would mean, that all the happenings in our daily lifes have to be set in such a way, that they will lead to the higher TF outcome.

This is a non-starter


Try it the other way around and your strategy gets sound


JMHO, and that of the rest of the Elliotticans crowd
  • #14,326
  • May 14, 2014 5:25am May 14, 2014 5:25am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} higher TF setting the outcome of lower TF is waaaaaaay to deterministic would mean, that all the happenings in our daily lifes have to be set in such a way, that they will lead to the higher TF outcome. This is a non-starter Try it the other way around and your strategy gets sound JMHO, and that of the rest of the Elliotticans crowd
No.. not the outcome perhap boundaries.


I have edited my post :

Quoting andexQ
I think generally higher TF define or set boundaries for lower TF, but sometimes in special case or at important level they both may set each other in unison..
  • #14,327
  • May 14, 2014 5:43am May 14, 2014 5:43am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} No.. not the outcome perhap boundaries. I have edited my post : {quote}


Does not change the meaning out of my view

But I am not religious on that - money management in light of the assumed probabilities will make nearly every system work

your edge - your money management
  • #14,328
  • May 14, 2014 6:20am May 14, 2014 6:20am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} No.. not the outcome perhap boundaries. I have edited my post : {quote}
Completly agree, boundaries is great way to put it.
  • #14,329
  • May 14, 2014 6:51am May 14, 2014 6:51am
Quoting bzzz
managed to take a gbp/usd buy at this spike down after the news at 6812 baaaaaaaad idea
Updated graph of GU ... still more downside
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-h4-x-trade-brokers-3.png Size: 97 KB
  • #14,330
  • May 14, 2014 6:59am May 14, 2014 6:59am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} In my opinion one should not focus too obsessive on the math, since no one on earth was ever able to show/find the underlying math of movements.
Umm .. I, and my 89% of win ratio, disagree with you ... ... ... It's obvious that there are no holy gray system that hit 100% ... but this system based on math have a > 85% win ratio ... and that with a good MM, set my account to win enougth to live and pay the bills


Quoting infinitus
{quote}Sentiment is driving the market, and it can turn everytime without extrinsic trigger.
All we can do with math, in my opinion, is playing some "models" and their probability values. But never forget: probability is not certainty.
Jejeje ... yes ... but 85% it's enought for me to call it certainty ...

Quoting infinitus
{quote}I do know what you are talking about and can understand what you are talking about. But in my opinion, it is a big fault to look at higher or highest TF and say, e.g., "on monthly it will go to 1.45-1.48" That is because of social mood is first decided/turned on the lower TF, and its picture is set forth to the higher TF's Small TF dictate the outcome of high TF, and not vice versa. People tend to use the higher TF, because it is easier to read because of filtering out the "white noise". But what for some people is simply "white noise" is...
Yes ... you know that continusly happen on EU thread ... people blaming on me, only because they are obsesed on the M5 TF ... but I don't care, my system, my rules, my profits ...
  • #14,331
  • May 14, 2014 7:02am May 14, 2014 7:02am
Just my numbers for today on EU ...

With a top over 1.3748 ... targets around 1.3670-1.3636 ... with final target zone 1.3636-1.3583 ... still not buying ... will do it IF when we reach 1.3636 I see the needed signals.
  • #14,332
  • May 14, 2014 8:35am May 14, 2014 8:35am
Quoting rbetancor
Just my numbers for today on EU ... With a top over 1.3748 ... targets around 1.3670-1.3636 ... with final target zone 1.3636-1.3583 ... still not buying ... will do it IF when we reach 1.3636 I see the needed signals.
No buying for sure, we need to go lower unles some surprising market order buyers come in. EJ and EU are both set to test lower.
  • #14,333
  • May 14, 2014 10:10am May 14, 2014 10:10am
OIL:
Quoting andexQ
Buy OIL ?!?

Now its time to Sell..
  • #14,334
  • May 15, 2014 1:57am May 15, 2014 1:57am
morning traedorians peace and pips be upon all of u
i see rbentacor thank you
frankly i am hesistating between closing my 2 positions a winner one(nzd/usd) and a loser one (gbp/usd) for a very small profit,or let them run coze i'm still expecting a bounce from gbp/usd or is it greed turning me blind hein?
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #14,335
  • May 15, 2014 2:16am May 15, 2014 2:16am
that was greed hopefully i closed my positions at the right time
now i am asking myself what was i thinking about when i took that gbp/usd buy order :nerd:
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #14,336
  • May 15, 2014 2:43am May 15, 2014 2:43am
Good morning all!

Looks like all goes as calc ... so nice that we are near target zones, let's see if we get them during London ... or have to wait to NY Open

Looking closely to USDCHF to get the triggers
  • #14,337
  • May 15, 2014 4:08am May 15, 2014 4:08am
15th of May ... and monthly targets meet ... jejeje .. the next 15 days ... BONUS !!!
Attached Image
  • #14,338
  • May 15, 2014 4:16am May 15, 2014 4:16am
Quoting rbetancor
15th of May ... and monthly targets meet ... jejeje .. the next 15 days ... BONUS !!! {image}
Superb! 500 pips per month on single pair is impressive.
  • #14,339
  • May 15, 2014 4:27am May 15, 2014 4:27am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Superb! 500 pips per month on single pair is impressive.
No, no no ... no only on EU, this month

Attached Image


And that's stats about closed ops ... still have some running on green on usdchf and eurusd
  • #14,340
  • May 15, 2014 4:33am May 15, 2014 4:33am
UJ short 101.88
GCAD short.
7 traders viewing now