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Let's Trade Options

  • #3,581
  • Edited 3:18am May 11, 2014 2:14am | Edited 3:18am
another one I missed, VIPS, just found it researching DANG. $5 to $180 in <18 months. June $85/$95 put spread $1.20/$1.75, nets $0.55. ($90/$100 - $0.75; $95/$105 - $1.05)....VIPS ER is 5/14.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,582
  • May 11, 2014 11:38am May 11, 2014 11:38am
No stimulus for China? A chunk of CNY data coming Monday late could bring a dark cloud over global markets. AUD/USD looks like a double top at $0.94 +/-, if China y/y Industrial Production slides hard could be a good short there for a few hundred pips or more.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,583
  • May 11, 2014 12:06pm May 11, 2014 12:06pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I am shopping around some of the beat down tech sector names.....
it's a long list
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,584
  • May 11, 2014 12:12pm May 11, 2014 12:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} hey Giz, I think there are some fx brokers that allow PAMM accounts (PAMM = Percentage Allocation Management Module) - I did a quick google on PAMM accounts and I saw Alpari, for instance. For trading opm (other people's money) from outside the US, I'm not sure which US brokers are going to allow that for you, you'll just have to ask them. I just opened an IB (Interactive Brokers) account and I saw they allow all kinds of joint accounts - Trusts, "Friends and Family", etc - you might check with them. Good Luck.
Thanks for the info I'll look into it. There was this one broker that did even lot purchases for the investor and those following him but I'll know by tomorrow.
uphill battle
  • #3,585
  • May 11, 2014 8:18pm May 11, 2014 8:18pm
Marc does a good job being non-commital, but I can't blame him. We're gonna break out of some ranges, soon methinks, break out or break down, I could see it going either way. In the absence of some major macro strains, like civil war in Ukraine and/or hard downturn in China, yieldseeking will ascend and we will see US equities regain momentum and Treasurys break down. That's my bet but I continue watching....

http://www.marctomarket.com/2014/05/...ing-point.html

" The euro’s performance, and by extension the general direction of the US dollar, may turn on one’s outlook for the peripheral European asset market. In the week ahead, that may be a function of the new economic information and the direction of US Treasuries. There are two main reports from the euro area. On Thursday, May 15, the final April CPI estimate and Q1 GDP will be reported.

The risks are that the data encourages further profit-taking and position adjustment in the periphery asset markets and implies scope for additional euro losses (which is consistent with our technical outlook). If anything the April flash CPI gain of 0.8% may be revised higher. In terms of growth, the euro economy likely expanded at twice the Q4 13 pace of 0.2%. The risk is on the upside here too.

Turning to US Treasuries, the 10-year yield is at the lower end of this year’s range. It has been unable to sustain a break of the 2.60% level. The risk is on the upside, and downside for prices. A backing up of US yields could weigh on the European bond markets. "
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,586
  • May 12, 2014 2:37pm May 12, 2014 2:37pm
I'm long I'm short I'm long I'm short I'm.....

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101657557
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,587
  • May 12, 2014 3:22pm May 12, 2014 3:22pm
Quoting The Fool
I'm long I'm short I'm long I'm short I'm..... http://www.cnbc.com/id/101657557

  • #3,588
  • May 12, 2014 4:24pm May 12, 2014 4:24pm
https://www.minyanville.com/trading-...als&from=yahoo

" Tapping into the $50 trillion fixed-income market could be another real game-changer. The CBOE is working with the CME Group (NASDAQ:CME), the leading bond and currency exchange, to bring to market a volatility index based on the NYSE Current 10-Year US Treasury (INDEXNYSEGIS:AXTEN). The CBOE hopes to first launch a futures contract by fall, which would then be followed by options contract based on the futures.

Another area that shows promise is in the CBOE Short-Term Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:VXST), which I discussed in a prior article. "
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,589
  • May 12, 2014 11:26pm May 12, 2014 11:26pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} have made big money strangling CSCO in the past, but also lost when it was sluggish on the ER. Sitting at $23, I may try a $22/$24 long strangle for 5/17 ($0.17/$0.17) or 5/23 ($0.21/$0.20)...
5/17 $22/$24 now $0.13/$0.21, still $0.34 net debit, 5/23 @ $0.16/$0.24 - $0.40....CSCO closed $23.23. CSCO not been able to hold above $24 for more than a few weeks here and there in the last 5 years....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,590
  • May 13, 2014 7:22am May 13, 2014 7:22am
Quoting Cecil Gee
so important to see where $usd opens next week, if it opens and trades above 79.95 then more pain for eur but good for stocks
a good number for US retail sales should take EUR close to 1.3600 area
  • #3,591
  • May 13, 2014 10:38am May 13, 2014 10:38am
new trade on GDX, I'VE GONE LONG $23.50 puts on GDX for 7c or $7 per contract. GDX is struggling to move above $24 atm plus the put option is cheap

GDX May 2014 23.500 put (GDX140517P00023500)
-OPR
0.07 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.06(46.15%) 15:35
  • #3,592
  • May 13, 2014 10:21pm May 13, 2014 10:21pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
new trade on GDX, I'VE GONE LONG $23.50 puts on GDX for 7c or $7 per contract. GDX is struggling to move above $24 atm plus the put option is cheap GDX May 2014 23.500 put (GDX140517P00023500) -OPR 0.07 {image} 0.06(46.15%) 15:35
there's no movement in gold or the miners, and piddly volume across the board, about 1/2 of normal or less on many liquid names I've checked. Snoozefest for options traders. I am losing money this week on an ill conceived bearish TLT spread I got suckered into off of the drop on last week's long bond auction reaction. But I will claw out with a small loss. I really like trading TLT/TBT & am moving into that being the lion's share of my volume.

Otherwise, I am still shopping for volatile moves. CSCO maybe on ER tomorrow. Low volume can be volatility's friend sometimes.

Dollar range on GDX the last month, pitiful....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,593
  • May 14, 2014 11:41am May 14, 2014 11:41am
What up Cecil? The ^VIX about to dip below 12.00....

A sell-in-May-go-away spell brewing? I don't know.....mmmaybe....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,594
  • May 14, 2014 11:51am May 14, 2014 11:51am
Quoting The Fool
What up Cecil? The ^VIX about to dip below 12.00.... A sell-in-May-go-away spell brewing? I don't know.....mmmaybe.... {image}
ok mate, its all lining up, Gold is about to explode and I'm talking about a $100-$200 move, pull up a weekly chart of GOLD and see the divergence higher has not completed yet, VIX a dip below 11 would be better and If USD rejects of its 200 day strongly then I'd have more conviction
  • #3,595
  • May 14, 2014 12:13pm May 14, 2014 12:13pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} ok mate, its all lining up, Gold is about to explode and I'm talking about a $100-$200 move, pull up a weekly chart of GOLD and see the divergence higher has not completed yet, VIX a dip below 11 would be better and If USD rejects of its 200 day strongly then I'd have more conviction
explode, yes, I likes the sound of that. bull put credit spreads in GLD might be in order. Also looking at same for UVXY. But I as well am not convinced yet. Looking for a catalyst, finding none. Won't be surprised to see a bit more bullish momo, SnP pushed up into 1,900+ closes this week or next....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,596
  • May 14, 2014 12:21pm May 14, 2014 12:21pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} ok mate, its all lining up, Gold is about to explode and I'm talking about a $100-$200 move, pull up a weekly chart of GOLD and see the divergence higher has not completed yet, VIX a dip below 11 would be better and If USD rejects of its 200 day strongly then I'd have more conviction
Explode as in up, or down?
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,597
  • May 14, 2014 12:49pm May 14, 2014 12:49pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} explode, yes, I likes the sound of that. bull put credit spreads in GLD might be in order. Also looking at same for UVXY. But I as well am not convinced yet. Looking for a catalyst, finding none. Won't be surprised to see a bit more bullish momo, SnP pushed up into 1,900+ closes this week or next....
I like the calendar on this site....

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/calendar

...and I can't make much of a bear case overall. I don't think we can see bonds rise with equities for very long, and if I have to choose (I guess I do) I'd bet on a dip in bonds before equities. Maybe upcoming housing data will disappoint, and then the prelim q/q GDP on 5/29 will not rise to perhaps inflated expectations. And then we sellinmaygoaway. Hey, I got nowhere to go....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,598
  • May 14, 2014 12:52pm May 14, 2014 12:52pm
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101671888?__s...de+as+Treasury+

...signal to sell bonds?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,599
  • May 14, 2014 12:57pm May 14, 2014 12:57pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} New 30yr bond auctions on 5/12 and 13. If more weak bid-to-cover in those and no geopolitical scares on the wires (and Yellen's dove calls still echoing) then I won't be surprised to see US indices break out upside in force.
The above was of course wrong, Treasury does the long bond auctions seems around the first week of each month, next is June 5, per schedule here....

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit...nnceresult.htm
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,600
  • May 14, 2014 1:25pm May 14, 2014 1:25pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I like the calendar on this site.... http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/calendar
Nice calendar, thanks.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
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