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ASG CORP Journal

  • #241
  • May 8, 2014 2:53am May 8, 2014 2:53am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Well, for such a small number of traders, there are far more much better than I. But I'd certainly be interested if there's room. For now, I'm quite content to simply "lurk" every post you make.
Chris, I'm not looking for top pros, just generally reliable people, who won't upload my strat to the chinese torrents.
Strat is very simple, requires patience, and looks for no more than 2-3 trades on each pair / week.
  • #242
  • May 8, 2014 3:08am May 8, 2014 3:08am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} Chris, I'm not looking for top pros, just generally reliable people, who won't upload my strat to the chinese torrents. Strat is very simple, requires patience, and looks for no more than 2-3 trades on each pair / week.
Well no worries there RR. I don't trade and tell. I've learned a lot from some good traders here on my journey. If they have an open thread the most I do is direct others to it. J16 (where it really started for me) is where I learned much about PASR, EO's thread about the nitty gritty down in the trenches MA type trading.

But your method as stated above is exactly my overall goal. I don't wish to be tied to a screen and in fact, given the circumstances I'm facing, really can't be.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #243
  • May 8, 2014 7:41am May 8, 2014 7:41am
Quoting ruffryders
EUR USD update. EUR will come out strong out of the support zone (3880-3920) today and break above 4040.
BINGO
  • #244
  • May 8, 2014 8:05am May 8, 2014 8:05am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} BINGO
ok that one didn't turn out right. Update EUR USD D1 - looks like we are in for a bear move now on EUR USD.
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  • #245
  • May 8, 2014 9:43am May 8, 2014 9:43am
EUR USD W1 update.

Looks like we are entering into final stages of the BIG ASS rising wedge pattern.

I'd recommend to stay ASIDE / FLAT until the pattern resolves to either side (UP/DOWN)
  • #246
  • Edited 11:00am May 8, 2014 9:49am | Edited 11:00am
nzd usd w1 update. Looks like nzd usd has topped out and is about to reverse direction.

harmonic non-ideal ratio (886/113/50) is presented below.

agressive traders can short sell @ current price @ 8640 sl 8750 tp1 8340 tp2 8110 tp3 final 7920

this is risky / but high reward trade setup
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  • #247
  • May 8, 2014 9:59am May 8, 2014 9:59am
Quoting ruffryders
EUR USD W1 update. Looks like we are entering into final stages of the BIG ASS rising wedge pattern. I'd recommend to stay ASIDE / FLAT until the pattern resolves to either side (UP/DOWN)
I don't even trade EU anymore. A roughly 400 pip range for almost 8 months and 250 the past 9 weeks? PeeeUUUU It may break out one way or the other in our lifetime but I'm not holding my breath anymore
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #248
  • May 8, 2014 10:11am May 8, 2014 10:11am
Hi Ruffryder
We have a rising wedge, but I still think there is a bigger picture in play on the monthly.

Some support/fib and TL confluences on the weekly and monthly.

Looking at that bullish weekly close early April, I still see support just below 1.38 holding.
We close may back below the descending TL and it's KAPUT, but not really nervous about that too much yet, a lot of congestion to get through.

All the best
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #249
  • May 8, 2014 10:13am May 8, 2014 10:13am
guys I think we've pretty much peaked out on NZD USD. Below is COT index 26 week. Both large traders and specs peaked out @ 100 and are turning now. We originally turned BULLISH in FEB 2014 with specs/comms crossover.

Now I think it the time to short sell NZD USD mid-term.

agressive traders can short sell @ current price @ 8640 sl 8750 tp1 8340 tp2 8110 tp3 final 7920

THIS IS A GREAT TRADE SETUP - RISK 100 POINTS TO GO FOR 300 - 700 POINTS.
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  • #250
  • May 8, 2014 10:16am May 8, 2014 10:16am
guys, on the above trade you would want to confirm the W1 pinbar, as circled on the chart. Best to wait for week close and enter SHORT.

Having said that, overall, it does look like we've topped out on NZD USD. COT data positioning shows clear topping signal (green line flat and maxed out for a while, and now turning, red line maxed out and turned since march).
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  • #251
  • May 8, 2014 10:20am May 8, 2014 10:20am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Hi Ruffryder We have a rising wedge, but I still think there is a bigger picture in play on the monthly. Some support/fib and TL confluences on the weekly and monthly. Looking at that bullish weekly close early April, I still see support just below 1.38 holding. We close may back below the descending TL and it's KAPUT, but not really nervous about that too much yet, a lot of congestion to get through. All the best {image} {image} {image}
True ill-b-back, but what I don't like is here on this W1 chart. Previous SUP can turn into RES now with a weak weekly close.

Also, NZD USD looks like it's topped out. And GOLD looks like will trade lower. Overall, out of the whole batch, I see GU as the strongest currency now against USD, however let's see if that lasts.

I would be looking to diversify my position by adding PUT OPTIONS on NZD USD 2-4 months to expiry probably 20-30KK.

EUR USD I'm not touching even, it's crooked.
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  • #252
  • May 8, 2014 10:40am May 8, 2014 10:40am
guys GBP USD update. I took my chips off the table, sold out 20 mln total now. +80K. I see that we will proceed lower now towards 6800 before a new leg up for 7000 - 7200. Will re-enter later.

Meanwhile, focused on NZD USD.
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  • #253
  • May 8, 2014 11:09am May 8, 2014 11:09am
NZD USD also check this out guys. PUTS are twice as expensive as CALLS now. Which simply means traders are looking for NZD USD to crash soon.

20 000 000 position costs 200K on CALL side (LONG) and 450K on PUT side (SHORT).
  • #254
  • May 8, 2014 11:28am May 8, 2014 11:28am
USDX WEEKLY - lame duck strikes back @ long-term support. Guys, I think party is over, DXY will rebound on EU/NU/GU from now on.
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  • #255
  • May 8, 2014 11:43am May 8, 2014 11:43am
OK guys, for security purposes, I won't be posting my positions here anymore, however I just bought a VERY BIG position SHORT on NU.
How BIG? Comparable to the size of my latest trades.

This will pan out for next 3-4 months, and is a replacement trade for GBP USD. I'm up 80K on GU so can't complain really.

Good luck traders!
  • #256
  • May 8, 2014 11:57am May 8, 2014 11:57am
Wow, just looking at NZDUSD W1 gets you dizzy. Clean DB top @ 8780-8800. This things, once starts to gain traction, will fall hard off the cliff.
I won't be surprised to see a followthrough of 600-900 points guys within 3-4 months.
  • #257
  • May 9, 2014 8:22am May 9, 2014 8:22am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Hi Ruffryder We have a rising wedge, but I still think there is a bigger picture in play on the monthly. Some support/fib and TL confluences on the weekly and monthly. Looking at that bullish weekly close early April, I still see support just below 1.38 holding. We close may back below the descending TL and it's KAPUT, but not really nervous about that too much yet, a lot of congestion to get through. All the best {image} {image} {image}
Out of these at 3813, will have to wait to see shape of weekly candle.
I'm going to wait for GU to go higher before shorting or look for as long sign of 68 area.
Have a great weekend
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #258
  • May 9, 2014 4:03pm May 9, 2014 4:03pm
NZD USD update. Currently +8K since entered trade last night. W1 close strongly bullish. PUT options premiums are still increasing.

If you ain't short on NU yet, might be last chance soon.

RR
  • #259
  • May 9, 2014 4:26pm May 9, 2014 4:26pm
eur usd next up is 3520-3580. W1 chart below. Clear db top @ failed re-test / break of major resistance.
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  • #260
  • May 9, 2014 4:31pm May 9, 2014 4:31pm
nzd usd w1 what you need to know - weekly close strongly bearish / rejected @ 8700 psych level.
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