usd/jpy headed higher | Forex Factory

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usd/jpy headed higher

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 16, 2006 4:52pm Jul 16, 2006 4:52pm
gunning those stops at 116.40

Its going into high 117 handle.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #2
  • Jul 16, 2006 5:01pm Jul 16, 2006 5:01pm
You know I have read all of your posts and they are very interesting... thanks so much. The one thing that I am missing in them is your explanatons.. If it is not to much trouble could you please explain why you think yen is going to high 117s? thanks I would like to hear your reasoned opinion.

Scott

Quoting Spectre2006
gunning those stops at 116.40

Its going into high 117 handle.
  • #3
  • Jul 16, 2006 5:30pm Jul 16, 2006 5:30pm
i didn't expect the market to open this high..it gives a bullish tint on the open, with failure of the stops to be taken out past few minutes, the bullish tint is hard to destroy unless the market continues to trend down for the rest of the session. The bullish USD trade is getting overextended. But the risk is another 120 pips to the upside versus jpy. Gold is nearing its historical high but it hasn't so a conformation move by gold approaching its high, will nudge usd higher, but failure at upper resistance will bring it down.


options expiration, fed on the hill, leading indicators, all important events in the USD calender.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #4
  • Jul 16, 2006 5:33pm Jul 16, 2006 5:33pm
So, because of these events and conclusions, is this the reason you think the yen will get to the high117s? Thanks again, Scott



Quoting Spectre2006
i didn't expect the market to open this high..it gives a bullish tint on the open, with failure of the stops to be taken out past few minutes, the bullish tint is hard to destroy unless the market continues to trend down for the rest of the session. The bullish USD trade is getting overextended. But the risk is another 120 pips to the upside versus jpy. Gold is nearing its historical high but it hasn't so a conformation move by gold approaching its high, will nudge usd higher, but failure at upper resistance will bring it down.


options expiration, fed on the hill, leading indicators, all important events in the USD calender.
  • #5
  • Jul 16, 2006 5:37pm Jul 16, 2006 5:37pm
its all preemptive conclusions, look for price action to confirm your view, otherwise look at other possibilities. If the tick for tick price action confirms things, stick to your original model or view.

things are heating up further, and further..watching the newswires now.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #6
  • Jul 16, 2006 5:40pm Jul 16, 2006 5:40pm
With the utmost respect. that last statement was completely contrdictory.
It is not based in logic. could you please restate your position? The question I asked is why you think yen is going to the high 117s... could you please address that question? thanks again, Scott


Quoting Spectre2006
its all preemptive conclusions, look for price action to confirm your view, otherwise look at other possibilities. If the tick for tick price action confirms things, stick to your original model or view.

things are heating up further, and further..watching the newswires now.
  • #7
  • Jul 16, 2006 5:48pm Jul 16, 2006 5:48pm
Israel just bombed the PLA headquarters in Gaza. It favors the bullish tint, on the short term basis, but you have to look at other markets. Oil/GOLD/BONDS, the news from the middle east might just be enough to hit the stops at 116.4 and 116.6, then the usd/jpy enter a new time/sales point of view or trading range.

But still, you have to assume that profit taking will occur in these other derivatives. The equity indices in the USA, are in options expiration mode. They might be susceptible to short covering rallies. In order to rally equities these other markets have to back off a little from historical highs on a daily basis, to short term support.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #8
  • Jul 16, 2006 5:50pm Jul 16, 2006 5:50pm
Thank you for your answer, good night spectre.. Scott

Quoting Spectre2006
Israel just bombed the PLA headquarters in Gaza. It favors the bullish tint, on the short term basis, but you have to look at other markets. Oil/GOLD/BONDS, the news from the middle east might just be enough to hit the stops at 116.4 and 116.6, then the usd/jpy enter a new time/sales point of view or trading range.

But still, you have to assume that profit taking will occur in these other derivatives. The equity indices in the USA, are in options expiration mode. They might be susceptible to short covering rallies. In order to rally equities these other markets have to back off a little from historical highs on a daily basis, to short term support.
  • #9
  • Jul 16, 2006 9:31pm Jul 16, 2006 9:31pm
spot gold is up 6, favors bullish usd
Price is the only indicator.
  • #10
  • Jul 16, 2006 9:48pm Jul 16, 2006 9:48pm
I've chopped up this pair better than some ginzu knife chefs. =)

Price compression occuring look for a gap soon. The price action isn't overtly bullish, I think it will break below 116.10 before heading higher as european session nears.

In European session those 116.40 stops will come into play. Might get close to 116.6, those stop targets are time dependent. Oil wants to back off its high for the rest of the week to consolidate so equities can have a short covering rally before option expiration.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #11
  • Jul 16, 2006 9:50pm Jul 16, 2006 9:50pm
Doesnt gold going up generally means the USD goes down? how comes both are going up in sync this time around? The markets doesnt seem to be following its usual patterns.



Quoting Spectre2006
spot gold is up 6, favors bullish usd
  • #12
  • Jul 16, 2006 10:06pm Jul 16, 2006 10:06pm
Quoting Yardie
Doesnt gold going up generally means the USD goes down? how comes both are going up in sync this time around? The markets doesnt seem to be following its usual patterns.
Only for inflation risk. Usd and Gold both benefit from safe haven flows.
  • #13
  • Jul 16, 2006 10:11pm Jul 16, 2006 10:11pm
You have to look at the world markets in terms of world events and not purely statistical correlation measures. Some periods of time, two derivative prices will correlate, and others will be inversely correlated. Behind each correlation is a model or mind set that is in play. At this moment the mindset is flight to safety in terms of risk aversion. NK troubles, yen is in bearish stance, and usually when war breaks out and equity indices are going into the crapper.. bonds are favored, as is gold. Oil is moving with gold. As did the CAD.

But some markets overshoot and touch resistance and backoff before others by hrs. So you can look for evidence in those markets what others will do. Oil looks bearish, it backed off that 80 dollar target. Gold will soon test upward historical highs and it might not since oil backed off. If these markets are backing off that means risk aversion trades are being closed. Which means USD risk aversion trade, USD should be bearish as these markets backoff, but since momentary blips or spikes occur near the closest stops, even if your correct in your model. You should wait for higher levels to place trades.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #14
  • Jul 16, 2006 10:35pm Jul 16, 2006 10:35pm
stops stops
Price is the only indicator.
  • #15
  • Jul 16, 2006 10:38pm Jul 16, 2006 10:38pm
look to get out at 116.6 for the short term
Price is the only indicator.
  • #16
  • Jul 17, 2006 3:17am Jul 17, 2006 3:17am
its going higher dont short it..huge bullish move in usd.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #17
  • Jul 17, 2006 3:22am Jul 17, 2006 3:22am
look for eur/usd close to 125 even before entering a usd bear trade.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #18
  • Jul 17, 2006 4:40am Jul 17, 2006 4:40am
dont even short it at 125 even its a very strong move.. support possibly at 124.80 eur/usd for a usd bear trade.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #19
  • Last Post: Jul 17, 2006 4:45am Jul 17, 2006 4:45am
=) I'm done for the day, heading out for some fresh air. laterz.
Price is the only indicator.
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