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Trading Crude Oil with price action + indicator

  • #61
  • May 5, 2014 2:44am May 5, 2014 2:44am
Sean what resistance do you expect it to bounce of before it heads of for 96.10.
  • #62
  • May 5, 2014 9:07am May 5, 2014 9:07am
no idea.... oil seems to have a mind of its own. it seems to like human numbers...

i went the other direction late last week (long).... with all the bs going on in the ukraine, i think we're going to go back up again... i'll get out, if close < $98.10.... that seems like a good support point.

overnight we saw $99.65?
  • #63
  • May 6, 2014 11:22am May 6, 2014 11:22am
So I got out of my long this morning... made a tiny bit of dough. Just toooo risky right now for a long...

At about same time, went the other direction via a Deep in the money put... now sitting on a nice little gain, that I'll watch.

I don't know what way its going to go. Slightly Lower high, Slightly higher low... on 3 week hourly chart, nice 45 degree trend thats hitting resist at 98.20 or so. Hit against this 2 times now.

I got a feeling, there a pile of buyers sitting at $98 or so...
  • #64
  • May 6, 2014 12:32pm May 6, 2014 12:32pm
seanwg: correct decision for next 24 hours.
I too closed my position, I would not say I am not a newbie, cause this crude market is most complex, you have to book fast profits
and I wanted to feel good seeing $$ in account so closed it in middle, was away when it spiked for a short duration.

although I am not in USA and not having a account overseas so I trade live in different platform
and watch it on MT demo.

Reasons:
1). Ukraine tension would let it fall.
2). China slow growth result will not it climb.
3). inventory data coming up in next 20 hours would certainly impact longs.

As inventory has been up for last few weeks, I am sure that would again let all longs get Hit by SL and then show any surprising positive move.
so its going to be a swing trade day today (Wednesday)

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  • #65
  • Edited 8:09pm May 6, 2014 12:39pm | Edited 8:09pm
In response to a few post about Crude manipulation and or not trading right, and yadda yadda yadda.

Crude seems to be trading absolutely fine just like everything else. I don't see anything wrong with Price Action, Trendlines and or Supply and Demand and I will be trading those levels tomorrow and any new ones that may form just like I did today. Just have to put the puzzle together and have the balls to pull the trigger because you trust your judgement. All time frames down to the Tick Tock you don't stop....

Crude is fast and furious and if your're under-capitalized you will absolutely need killa precision entries or you'll die. (...:nerd:ask me how I know...) You have just enough time to get into position and then it's BAM!!!!! off to to the races...

This bitch fuckin' owned me at one time. I learned a few of her moves and now we dance together... I still make plenty of mistakes on entry (not enough room to breathe aka stopped out) but good R:R saves the day/week all the time and crude produces BEAUTIFUL R:R

Don't look too deep into the past, trade the NOW!

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  • #66
  • May 6, 2014 1:57pm May 6, 2014 1:57pm
JoeNY -- never said its manipulated. It actually in some respects is simpler to trade than forex etc. You either know what your doing, or have a little bit of luck... or your like road kill.

I'm going to wait for next swing low, and see where its at..... $98 or so seems solid support




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  • #67
  • May 6, 2014 2:12pm May 6, 2014 2:12pm
Hi Sean,
My post was not at you or really any of the newer post. Just some crap I was reading back in the thread... It's all good. I see it already shot up off the trend line and heading into that squeeeeeeeze but the session's over for me and the masses. Tomorrow it's on! ( -;

Quoting seanwg
JoeNY -- never said its manipulated. It actually in some respects is simpler to trade than forex etc. You either know what your doing, or have a little bit of luck... or your like road kill. I'm going to wait for next swing low, and see where its at..... $98 or so seems solid support {image}
SPC * Swollen PocketZ Crew!
  • #68
  • May 7, 2014 4:47am May 7, 2014 4:47am
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  • #69
  • May 7, 2014 5:24am May 7, 2014 5:24am
Ok, hitting some moving average traffic here which means I might have missed some structure so I'm going to take 1 contract out at take profit. +39. Stop moved to BE for last contract. Only looking for the Green Line than all out anyway and await further price action.

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  • #70
  • May 7, 2014 5:43am May 7, 2014 5:43am
Ok so price is stalling. No point in losing all gained on last contract for a few points to the green line. All out cause GREED KILLZ! Will trade this all day using Price Action off the lines.

Good Luck.... Hey, no throwing up for me this morning...

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  • #71
  • May 7, 2014 7:49am May 7, 2014 7:49am
Quoting JoeNY
Ok so price is stalling. No point in losing all gained on last contract for a few points to the green line. All out cause GREED KILLZ! Will trade this all day using Price Action off the lines. Good Luck.... Hey, no throwing up for me this morning... {image} {image}

Hi Joe what price action do you wait for to trigger a move between the green lines ?

Do you wait for a bounce of a pullback on a 30 min chart ?
  • #72
  • May 7, 2014 8:05am May 7, 2014 8:05am
Funny that it seems to be stalling right at $100....
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  • #73
  • Edited 6:07pm May 7, 2014 12:36pm | Edited 6:07pm
Just like out of a textbook. Naked charts aren't fancy. Just an old CRUDE way to trade..... Tomorrow's another day with ..... a new level. It's like Magic

Price loves to CHANNEL!

CHANNELS, S&R, S&D : Pick your poison... (They all work, focus on one.)

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The Holy Grail!
Just put the puzzle together piece by piece. Fascinating to say the least.

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  • #74
  • Edited 6:13am May 8, 2014 5:46am | Edited 6:13am
First Big Circle. I call it the squeeze off the cliff. (Too bad I'm sleeping at 2am)

Little circle is a perfect text book pin....right off the cliff... (Too bad I can't get the F up in the morning and missed all the action.)

Maybe we can get a buy off one of the lines although my bear skills are better. Buying's for suckers anways...

I may be turning to the Dark Side for Good.... I enjoy selling more. SELL! SELL! SELL! Luke, I am your Father!

The puzzle is growing.

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  • #75
  • May 8, 2014 7:20am May 8, 2014 7:20am
That's it I can't take it anymore. I'm out. The pressure waiting around for Natural gas news is killing me. Don't want to lose all that I gained. Super stall where it is now. I hate buying. i always want to throw up....

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  • #76
  • May 8, 2014 7:22am May 8, 2014 7:22am
Quoting JoeNY
First Big Circle. I call it the squeeze off the cliff. (Too bad I'm sleeping at 2am) Little circle is a perfect text book pin....right off the cliff... (Too bad I can't get the F up in the morning and missed all the action.) Maybe we can get a buy off one of the lines although my bear skills are better. Buying's for suckers anways... I may be turning to the Dark Side for Good.... I enjoy selling more. SELL! SELL! SELL! Luke, I am your Father! The puzzle is growing. {image}
Joe should we still be selling.
  • #77
  • May 8, 2014 7:24am May 8, 2014 7:24am
News in 5 minutes. Always a crap shoot in my opinion before news. Safe to say there are better times to trade, like after it. I went long off the line. Anyway I buy and sell. I don't have a day projection. I just follow price action and the other traders. I'm not into Fundamentals other than news report intraday. Not that bright

Quoting don555
{quote} Joe should we still be selling.
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  • #78
  • Edited 2:31pm May 8, 2014 7:43am | Edited 2:31pm
Your post made me think. PLEASE.... I post these charts as an example of my analysis. I trade the lines. I trade from one line to the next and take profit. I took the long off the 99.82 line. I'm not long for the day, just that trade. If I take a trade no one should follow what I do because you don't know if I exited or if I held on. I may have also scratched and re-entered the opposite way. This is also a big part about money management most don't talk about. I have a set stop and a mental stop. If price starts to doing something I'm not comfortable with (opposing price action) I will exit before my set stop for a very small loss as opposed to my full stop which might be double of what I bailed at. I think this is the key which is why screen time is important. You start to know when things are going right or not looking good. This is tough because sometimes it goes the right way and for big bucks and you're left behind out of the trade but this is how the market mind fucks us. You can't let this trick you. Trading is so UN-NATURAL. The right move is always to preserve capital for clearer better opportunities in the future. You got to let stuff go and only focus on the future. Your weekly % is all that matters. Always think in % not $.

I only trade line to line ONLY if I see price action I'm familiar with. I may hold if it doesn't stall but once it does, I'm out of the trade. There are many moves off of lines I don't take and miss out on because I'm not feeling the price action. That's OK because there's always another move. I'll be in the ground before markets cease to exist.


Quoting don555
{quote} Joe should we still be selling.
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  • #79
  • May 8, 2014 8:24am May 8, 2014 8:24am
Joe thanks for the explanation your horizontal lines along with the trendlines have helped me immensely I now see my chart in a completely different way and I have a better understanding of what is going on.

ie When to enter and exit also to bail if price stalls which I did not do before.

As you said it is a puzzle until a person gets their head around it.
  • #80
  • May 8, 2014 8:27am May 8, 2014 8:27am
Cool man. We all deserve a piece of the pie. Screw the big banks if they can't take a joke. Trading is a continuous learning journey. I learn something new everyday myself. I'm never satisfied. It's amazing how many roads you can go with this.

Quoting don555
Joe thanks for the explanation your horizontal lines along with the trendlines have helped me immensely I now see my chart in a completely different way and I have a better understanding of what is going on. ie When to enter and exit also to bail if price stalls which I did not do before. As you said it is a puzzle until a person gets their head around it.
SPC * Swollen PocketZ Crew!
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