Measuring the Markets – Ideas

Share some good ideas about market micro structure...

Sure..

its old as a goose,
boring as sh*t,
striped with minty flavors,
and all over my dick.

Do you believe this market is random?
-my post-
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...70#post7072670


Solve this, if any of you are smart enough.

Hi Legionary,

try to answer your questions here, hope it helps

1. What do you measure,
Trend, Momentum, S/R Levels

2. how, when,what tools you use,
Trend: I use MAs
Momentum: I use TDI indicator
S/R Levels: I use Pivot Points

3. how do you pinpoint entry and exit,
When Trend, Momentum and S/R are in confluence
example:
Trend is UP
PA bounce S/R making HH and HL
Upward Momentum is strong enough
Higher TF also trending up
Then I would have a confluence that shows a High Probability Trade

4. how do you avoid ranges and bad trades,
Trading is but a probability game, therefore losses are unavoidable, but you can minimize it by trading only High probabilities set up

5. how you increase your odds,
1. Money Management
2. Trade HPT Set ups (confluence)
more confluence from Higher time frames will increase your trade probability even more

6. when you will close trade and why,
I will booked some profit when PA reach the first S/R
and let the rest to run to the next S/R level, while trailing the S/L x pips from the last swing

7. what is the most important for you in your measurement analysis
Confluence

Ok.
Another concept.
Buy low – Sell high
How, when, why, explanations, description...


Any help via p.m. is also welcome.

I have one problem.
All statistics I can think of, prove edge is neither good or bad...
Sure, stats from A to B can delude you and convince you same as your ''smart'' brain can.
But from B to C or from F to K etc... stats will show you that it is the game of endless options.
Endless parameters...and if you only slice for one tiniest bit different, you’ll get another different output set.

What am I doing wrong?
(Forget your... five pic example solution, 505 pictures which show you’re very right – because you don’t show 50.000 or more other wrong examples...)

Anyone?

To what? buy low sell high post?

Whichever you like and can answer.

The problem is always entry and exit.
After 100,200,300...1000... trades - is account rising or falling?

I have great obstacle not with theory but with doing it for real.(ity)
For sure, all the kids know that those two things are usually two different ones.
Buy low, sell high. Ok. But the problem is - price will almost never behave like you want and need to, and so...when will you exit?
Sometimes it will breakout, stall, manipulate you, range, rage and numerous other things.
So, the stats problem is always present, also.
So what about the in/out rules?
For sure, but who knows after 5000 trades what your account will look like?
We need positive solid stats in front of us.

Thank you very much.

So far I have found not one surest method to trade...
Still searching for lowest risk/biggest reward and reliability...

In fact this thread just got me wondering, and so many requirement before one can even post!

Found zero strict consistency in any kind of analysis.

I guess this is a very valid proof that market is very very random and I still don't have a clue how anybody can tame it consistently.

(Even if you don't do any analysis or measurements it is still from logic point of view very obvious that it is mostly random.)

I'm looking for some comments, if anyone will dare...

How to beat this randomness?
(or whatever you may call it)
Well you can’t know when it’ll turn, on what conditions and for how long it’ll go, and where and approximately you can’t know.

You can filter and filter and filter...You can find exactly the same trades and exactly the same trade conditions but the trade result in only 100 of those trades can be and will be exactly different!

Even if you can know something for some time, after e.g. 1000 trades it will be a unbelievably huge mess.

I was clearly studying everything I can think of.
So what am I missing?

Do you see it?

http://magiceye.com/faq_example.htm

What exactly are you filtering?
How do you define an entry? Based on what?

Trades that historically/visually look the same will NEVER achieve the exact outcomes because the 'current' influx of volume varies greatly.
This is why s/r sometimes works...other times fails:

George has one billion euros and wants a long at around 1.4520.
Depending on current volume available to be filled with, he will either dump it or work it to get filled without sweeping the market.

You look at a chart and you see huge move starting around 1.4500 // 1.4520 === you class it as a key support/demand level or whatever tickles your fancy.

You sit on your hands and WAIT for the market to move back to this prior level...once it gets there you see your statistically proven pinbar with 10.000 trades of confidence that will bounce and give you at least a 1:1

But guess what:

What if George has left his desk? Maybe hes gone for a smoke? Maybe hes done for the day...you just dont know do you?
Maybe someone else as big if not bigger than George appears? who knows!

But at this point you take your trade and it fails... Of course, there isnt as much volume trading at such level and there is no George around to move the market with size again...so your trade is a fail. even with fancy pin bars double train tracks or whatever they are called.

So the moral of the story is:

- Any and all moves are 50/50 without prior knowledge.
- A random line will have the same impact as a methodically calculated line...they are still 50/50 bounce or break.
- The difference comes from volume. Whos trading how much and how strong/weak is the market at that given reference point.

Without this, its still a crap shoot with statistically misleading info as to what works and what doesnt, and why "the market has changed" etc etc blablabla.

@Mingary...
No, maybe if I have it on a paper, who knows...and I don’t think it can help me...

@Pipalicious
How can anybody sane write something so contradicting in the same post?
(Same as probably some X? member does...and he lies and he lies and contradicts and smartly deliberately or whatever....forever and ever and ever...
You can find it in all his posts. Although some are deleted, moved...just to drive people in circles and crazy.
You can probably bet all your money on it. That’s If you’re really sane and not completely crazy.)

‘’ What if George has left his desk? Maybe hes gone for a smoke? Maybe hes done for the day...you just don't know do you?
Maybe someone else as big if not bigger than George appears? who knows!’’

In the same direction or in different? 5 pips after now, 25, 105, 3 pips, 0?
Will he zigzag or go straight, delude you, what are his true intentions, iceberg, new traders came into, struggle, stall, SL push and in which direction will go after, really, are you SURE?
How will you decide? How will you statistically calculate all this and prove? Where is your SL?
Will the market try to take you out? You can I guess in most cases, bet all your money, house and everything you have ever earned and imagined or dreamed...

Who knows?

‘’- Any and all moves are 50/50 without prior knowledge.
- A random line will have the same impact as a methodically calculated line...they are still 50/50 bounce or break.
- The difference comes from volume. Whos trading how much and how strong/weak is the market at that given reference point.’’

What knowledge? Which volume? What difference?

Do you really didn’t read my post? ‘’ You can find exactly the same trades and exactly the same trade conditions but the trade result in only 100 of those trades can be and will be exactly different!’’

Please try and solve this my very simplified and easy post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...70#post7072670
Do you have profitable reference points, when to enter and when to exit?
Statistically proved after let’s say only 5000 trades? With low draw down, and nice equity growth in your favor...
4 trades by day, 20 days in month, 240 trading days in a year; (5.2 years)
Really?

And if someone has 80% with RR 1:1 are you all crazy?
He/she will most likely not write this here, will not sell you books and will probably never even mention it...
He/she will have at least 1000 better things to do...

So far I have seen about 100% lies.
And no I don’t think that you can teach me how to cry.

But then again there has to be something. If?
And that is what I’m searching for...
And this post is not one of a X? trader kind.
It is the true market explanation.

Volume is changing like price, each tick, so what will you do with it and how?
Everything else is just lamenting...

if you see they are attacking but they have no force, you shoud attack all you have, if they have force you choud run as fast as you can. (should be same as your basic trainig as a legionary)

I havent got time to answer your whole post and i wont for arguments sake either.

I dont know what you mean with this 'x? trader' but yes, it is all about volume, price, momentum, exhaustion, anticipation and reaction.

I do have a book that may appeal to you though. Its called:

'top 10 best kept secrets on playing tennis like a pro'

Its quite good actually, it teaches you everything and the book also comes served on a silver platter.

/joking.

Come on guys/gals. There has to be some smarter guy/gal than me, willing to help with my misery.
I have tried everything I can think of.
Pipalicious misunderstood what I was talking about.
Or he is blind/deaf/ignorant or whatever.
And no, there is no argument between us.THAT IS NOT THE PURPOSE why I write this.

You simply can’t find STATISTICALLY objective points for referencing.
Big orders go, SR, small orders. Bigger orders, much bigger...then contra.
Fake out, fake out, fake out. Breakout. Range. Stall. Reverse, reverse, up/down...down, down...up....price starts and it lands safely always into nowhere.
No chance of predicting, capturing anything, CONSISTENTLY.
You don’t know when it will, when it’ll not.
What following, from where to where? Are you sure? After 10000 examples?
What volume? In what direction, where, when?
Is that to say that one millisecond after 1 big order in one direction other will not came in, in different direction? And what you will do?
Oh my gosh again range/reverse/up/down, SL hit, SL big, SL bigger, SL small, SL whatever...
Or you can say the same... on 1 or 5 minute, 5 days, 7.9 hours chart/bars and so on...
Up/down...down on small, on big, on average volume. Small SR, big SR, whatever SR.
Stop loss hunt but for how long? In what direction? For what purpose and with what intentions?
Up or down after, beyond?
ARE YOU SURE?
Still SL is hit or inconsistency.

And then you read book/text, do this or that. Price will mostly/big probability...do this/that when...
ALL RUBBISH.

Once it holds on this volume, once it doesn’t. Never ever I can find objective points so I guess there is NONE.
Volume will change, will not, will be in one or other direction. Start/stop, start...
So many combinations which as far as my work goes, it could mean something but most likely
IT MEANS NOTHING.
Probability 80%, then 45%, then 20%, 5%, 90%, 75%, 30%, 2%???
And what the hell does that means?
Price 5 pips up...55 down...4-7-9-4-15-45-77-99-123-14-5-8-4-35-55-9-2-1-5-8-45-12-79-128 pips/ticks/minutes/hours/days up/down, down/up, combinations.
All imaginable/unimaginable combinations. Mostly by coincidence I would say.
Maybe there is (sometimes or whatever) order behind it, but you can’t know it accurately.

You CAN’T use stats to get probability/money in your pocket. (I can’t)
Forget eyeballing and other childish methods!!!
I must be blind but I am very concise and perfectionist also. Diligent....
AND I HAVE FOUND NOTHING!
I guess it goes on the same lines as like with some other stubborn old traders which I think, concluded:
THAT THERE IS NOTHING. AND YOU WILL LOSE.

Then out of nothing price in one direction, but NO! No clear movement never and never will be.
How big is the range? Will it stay that way? NO WAY. Never.
Or it will. You can’t know.
SD, indicators, whatever you can think of.

So ‘’smart’’ traders say follow...and what joke/delusion is this???
Sure they will give you their 5/55/555 pictures to back up their infallible method(s)
BACKWARDS.
Surely you have known, that right - is mystery?

How could anyone know that move will end now/then and with/on what conditions?
And if you don’t - then I don’t see how you will get positive consistency.
Sure, it is a beautiful piece of art after the fact but before the fact it is absolutely unknown!
It drives me insane when I see 80% correct or 90% or whatever (let’s assume 1:1 RR)
Are you mad people or what?
If you have such score and assume many trades every day then...you are ABNORMALLY RICH.
I doubt there is a such thing.
(Sure it is but for those who manipulate price/have millions/billions/inside info/steal/are given etc.)

What you will follow when price/volume/market is unpredictable, random, unsolvable grubby ugly monster and when you have br*kers who will randomly...
(when they have shortage/need more money/more Ferrari’s..., get some pips with increasing their spreads for 2,3,5, N times on all pairs at the same time, when no news or anything is happening?)
Do you really think I’ m so blind/young/stupid/naive/idiot that I will believe in excuses and other bullshit nonsense? And do you really believe/trust 100% in organisations which will protect you from such appearances? (What a joke! And do you really have the TIME and spare MONEY for pursuing such futility?)
And this is only one example...

UNPREDICTABLE and more.
Then how will you FOLLOW?

There are about thousands ideas how to conquer the markets, even Nobel prices won, but after years and time all the same...

So whisper to my ears how can anybody be profitable consistently. For real.
I’ m willing to sign non-disclosure statements / pay for the real edge or whatever...
You can’t cheat me. I won’t buy anything other than the clear deal.

And also I don’t probably have enough money but...in fact you must have some kind of mercy on me to sell/tell me, if you have anything at all.
Yes I know most of you who have some true edge, have stolen that precious info from banks, are given all on platter etc. Don’t try to fool me. I’m too long in economy/world to not see how the things are going.

Hahah. I like your attitude man, keep pushing I think you'll get the answer. I was there just like you, mastered a few different styles also, and with the best analysis anything can still happen , you're analysis could be so beautiful that angels might appear in the sky and play music over you, but the market could care less, the market doesn't care if you got a bullish signal, even if it only moves 10 pips, once it hits a bigger order than the one that gave you the signal it's going to do what it likes, and if that means going against your analysis so be it. You're not going to find the answer here I can promise you that. I have even been on record of saying that the market doesn't care about support and resistance and I got attacked for it. There is only one thing the market cares about, and after it's all said and done, if you tell anyone what you found out they look at you like you're crazy, but my trading has proven that I am right. I am trying to get an EA made based on my ideas but even that is proven problematic because it's hard when someone tells you something that's foreign to what you have believed for years.

Then we have gurus that can predict the market down to the pip, and again the market doesn't give a shit, then you have wars, famine the market doesn't care about those things, we're the ones who care and project our biases onto it and when we get burned we say it's random because we don't know what went wrong. The market only cares about Buying and selling, about ordering being filled that's the only thing it cares about, anything else is just us trying to understand what is going on, if the orders come in at support resistance so be it, if the orders come in because of war that's great. But unless the orders come in no matter the reason behind the orders, nothing is going to happen. Keep digging man you might find your answer, and if you do you're going to make a lot of money, there are no two ways about that. I found my answer through a lot of research and it's still on going research, but don't listen to most of the nonsense on here about 50/50, those are people who have settled and are happy with where they are. But keep searching for your answers man, I like you're style.