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Trend, S/R, Stoch, MACD, RSI, Volatility, Stats & News System

  • #21
  • Apr 29, 2014 4:24am Apr 29, 2014 4:24am
Quoting finaladd
Iwanna put it in a working formula, that deals with things "objectively" not "subjectively". It is very hard, and needs a lot of know how, observing, management, discipline, accuracy and trials.
Looking for coders is prematurate to me. In fact what we have to do (I say WE because I'm trying to do the same thing) is to objectively formulate the subjectivity! This is the real challange.

How do you define objectively what the trend is? I personally came to the conclusion that there is no THE trend but MY trend, defined according to my
trading horizon. You gave an algorithm to determine the trend. 21vs7 tried it and said "well, looks good but isn't that a bit too long?" Not that anyone is right or wrong, you just don't have the same trading horizon.

You will quickly, if not already, have to answer questions like "how small is small enough for the body of a spinner top to be a doji?". Did you ever measured the size of the body of a candle to read PA? Me never. But a computer can only play with numbers.

How deep do you require a retracement swing to form a higher low? Is one pip less no long enough?

A S/R algorithm will have to work on some historical data. How much? Did you ever had the idea of counting the number of bars on your screen before drawing horizontal S/R levels? I'm sure not.

Here are two of my indis. I'm very far from satisfied of them... But thus far the best I could do.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SR-EURUSD-D1.png Size: 20 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Candle-pattern-EURUSD-D1.png Size: 30 KB
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #22
  • Edited 9:36am Apr 29, 2014 9:09am | Edited 9:36am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Looking for coders is prematurate to me. In fact what we have to do (I say WE because I'm trying to do the same thing) is to objectively formulate the subjectivity! This is the real challange. How do you define objectively what the trend is? I personally came to the conclusion that there is no THE trend but MY trend, defined according to my trading horizon. You gave an algorithm to determine the trend. 21vs7 tried it and said "well, looks good but isn't that a bit too long?" Not that anyone is right or wrong, you just don't have the same...
You made me laugh anyway, PipMeUp. You have quoted my magic words already: ((needs a lot of know how, observing, management, discipline, accuracy and trials)) and if you want the most influential word among them is: management . In my opinion, Subjectivity can be Objectivity knowing that I totally am with you, but far from argument that says its my trend or the market's trend, the main factor is: do I have a way that enables me from reading an event well and predict it accordingly? If yes, then I don't care this objectivity is subjective for 25% or so.
The other fact is management: If your idea is obvious in your mind PipMeUp, then you must find the way to implement it, and if subjectivity is still existing, then consider yourself -being subjective not being objective- guilty! There are so many things in this that we can't manage or read them. On the other hand, the events that we can read are a lot, so that with data, we still can.

Now, I advise myself and you to have very obvious ideas and start with them and continue, and I will give you one examples: You can know the pair movement average in a specific timeframe, right? It is NOT a subjective thing. From this little info, you have to build a plan with which you "buy" the market "mostly not all of time but 75% of time" if this pair reaches more than half of its timeframe average. Why? Because when it reaches its half way, there is a fact -which is its timeframe movement- that it will continue its path. So this can be translated this way "numbers are not real but just for learning":
Pair: NZDUSD. Usual Daily Movement: 70 pips. Open: 0.8530. Close: 0.8580. Observations: Because this pair moved up more than half of its average "0.8565", its possible to continue its way to the 0.8600 as its closing price predicted, and impossible to go back to the sell area because the down movement will not continue and reach the average 70 pips in general. So, Strategy: Buy: 0.8580. TP: 0.8600. SL: Closing minus 70 pips: 0.8580-0.0070=0.8510.

This simple strategy works most of time! I no more use it, but its an explanation that you have to combine between reality "objectivity", management and idea.

I hope this sharpens the channel between me and you.

Finaladd.
  • #23
  • Apr 29, 2014 9:57am Apr 29, 2014 9:57am
Quote
argument that says its my trend or the market's trend
That wasn't meant to be funny. My point is that there is no such thing that you can objectively define as the market's trend.

Quote
If your idea is obvious in you mind PipMeUp, then you must find the way to implement it
How many triangles do you see? What do you expect a computer to answer? Artificial intelligence exists for more than 60 years and this trivial problem, which is obvious in my mind, is still unsolved. I don't feel guilty for that.
Attached Image
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #24
  • Apr 29, 2014 10:02am Apr 29, 2014 10:02am
Yet you're right that some elements can be objectively defined. I wrote an indicator to give me the range of an instrument for a given TF. for Kiwi daily I also find 70 pips.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #25
  • Apr 29, 2014 10:26am Apr 29, 2014 10:26am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} That wasn't meant to be funny. My point is that there is no such thing that you can objectively define as the market's trend. {quote} How many triangles do you see? What do you expect a computer to answer? Artificial intelligence exists for more than 60 years and this trivial problem, which is obvious in my mind, is still unsolved. I don't feel guilty for that. {image}
I didn't mean it to be funny and I understand it anyway! Yet, my idea about this is not to go by book but there is a way with which you can trim edges and keep core.

For the NZDUSD, my suggested 70 pips is coming outside my mind without any computation and I mentioned (("numbers are not real but just for learning")). Example the topic and not the number.

All in all, a managed mind person can jump away from minor details and catch with major stick. this is the only way to make subjectivity an objectivity and without it, one will see things complex more than its complexity.

Thanks for your feedback. Certainly you thrive the thread and I need more discussions so as to purify every element of the Puzzles. I am wondering we still in puzzle 31 and no coders enters. We need to move forward guys. Where are you?

Finaladd.
  • #26
  • Apr 29, 2014 11:02am Apr 29, 2014 11:02am
Quoting finaladd
All in all, a managed mind person can jump away from minor details and catch with major stick.
A baby monkey can do that. A computer only sees zeros and ones. There is a lil' gap inbetween.

If the numbers aren't real where are your 13 weeks coming from. Why not 15 or 11? For an indi numbers is the only thing that exist.

EDIT: Do you remember how you learned reading at school? letters make Syllabs . Syllabs make words.... That's not the way your brain actually does

"From Cambridge University .

O lny srmat poelpe can raed tihs.
I cdnuolt blveiee taht I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd waht I was rdanieg. The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid, aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it deosn't mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, t he olny iprmoatnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be in the rgh it pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit a porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe. Amzanig huh? yaeh and I awlyas tghuhot slpeling was ipmorantt! if you can raed tihs psas it on !!"
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #27
  • Apr 29, 2014 12:27pm Apr 29, 2014 12:27pm
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} A baby monkey can do that. A computer only sees zeros and ones. There is a lil' gap inbetween. If the numbers aren't real where are your 13 weeks coming from. Why not 15 or 11? For an indi numbers is the only thing that exist. EDIT: Do you remember how you learned reading at school? letters make Syllabs . Syllabs make words.... That's not the way your brain actually does "From Cambridge University . O lny srmat poelpe can raed tihs. I cdnuolt blveiee taht I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd waht I was rdanieg. The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid,...
Oh boy! You're trying to make an argument from nothing as I am already persuaded that brain is different and master to a machine.

For the 13 candles or 15, there is something I observed and upon it I will build a working matrix, then will extract the concept from it to publicize the experiment to all pairs and timeframes.

Again, 13 is not the issue, the issue is catching a trend with an average movement. When you see all the rest of my plan, the big picture will be clear, provided some coders join us.

Finaladd.
  • #28
  • Apr 29, 2014 1:40pm Apr 29, 2014 1:40pm
You have the most subjective definition of objectivity. How do you want any coder to try and help you? (BTW I'm a software dev. for a living)
You make me feeling like this guy
Inserted Video
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #29
  • Apr 29, 2014 7:36pm Apr 29, 2014 7:36pm
Quoting PipMeUp
You have the most subjective definition of objectivity. How do you want any coder to try and help you? (BTW I'm a software dev. for a living) You make me feeling like this guy http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=BKorP55Aqvg
So, you are the Asian Expert, boy! You didn't tell me that you are a developer. Now I will tell you something about you: you just code what an architect commands you to. Its not your business, son.

Cheers!
  • #30
  • Apr 30, 2014 3:17am Apr 30, 2014 3:17am
Quoting finaladd
{quote} So, you are the Asian Expert, boy! You didn't tell me that you are a developer. Now I will tell you something about you: you just code what an architect commands you to. Its not your business, son. Cheers!
Usually I'm also the software architect of the projects I work on.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #31
  • Edited 6:37am Apr 30, 2014 6:02am | Edited 6:37am
PipMeUp, show me your objective capabilities to solve puzzle #1: MARKETS TRENDS:

1. Download EURUSD tick data from Dukascopy from June the 1st, 2012. EURUSD from that date has the same features "look at its monthly chart", so we apply our experiment on it NOT to consider it as the only fact, but to conclude good results from a stable period that we rely on and then widen our scale. Can you understand this?
2. Because this market's roots are built on quick trade principle, and because this market mainly depends on 3 great powers: JPY, EUR, and USD, you find out a formula with which you measure every trend "in pips" formed in the 3 sessions "Asia, Europe and America" for all our testing period.
If you can't extract trends, you may find out a way to automatically draw trend channel, where 1 Upper Trendline will match candles highs & 1 Downer Trendline will match candles lows, provided the 2 lines are either paralleled OR angled only and the ratio between matched prices equals or greater than 50%.
Then, you classify them as Uptrend, if:
a. Open price of the first candle in the trend channel is less than closing price of the last candle in the same trend channel;
b. Closing price of the last candle is above the channel downer trendline;
c. High price of the last candle equals or greater than half the distance between the two channel trendlines.
Note:
* The opposite is correct in terms of the Down Trend.
** If the open, high, low, close price data is mixed and not as in a, b and c, then the trend is in Range Mode.
*** If the the 2 lines are not paralleled OR are not angled OR are wide OR if the ratio between matched prices is less than 50%, then NO TREND.
This has to be within every session in the whole period.
3. We need a graph that classifies trends in bars under 2 titles: Short Trend and Long Trend, and in the 3 sessions, then we choose the Average Short and the Average Long by an eye and a ruler. The result is two readings only in every session, which are 6 readings. This will give us the Trends Scales in Asia, Europe and US. Do you know what this means? You will trade and not exit until trend has not been completed, provided in the particular session.
4. Find out EURUSD average pips scale in every session in that period by deducting lows from highs. You will make a graph, like in item #3: Least pips and Most pips, and in the 3 sessions, then to choose the Average Least and the Average Most by an eye and a ruler. The result is two readings only in every session, which are 6 readings. This will give us the Pips Scales in Asia, Europe and US. You will trade and not exit until EURUSD reaches its average pips in that session;
5. Find out EURUSD movement average in every session in that period by counting every tick up and down. You will make a graph, like in item #3: Least Ticks and Most Ticks, and in the 3 sessions, then to choose the Average Least and the Average Most by an eye and a ruler. The result is two readings only in every session, which are 6 readings. This will give us the EURUSD Volatility in Asia, Europe and US volatility so that one can expect consequences of his positions. "I will bring other measurements for volatility later".

Once solved, we move to Puzzle #2: Finding the S/R places.

Finaladd.
  • #32
  • May 1, 2014 5:57am May 1, 2014 5:57am
Where are you PipMeUp? where are coders? Where are thinkers? where are contributors?
  • #33
  • May 1, 2014 11:30am May 1, 2014 11:30am
Quoting finaladd
PipMeUp, show me your objective capabilities to solve puzzle #1: MARKETS TRENDS
Here sir: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post7433203
It is objective because the Kalman filter is the best unbiased estimator with respect to the maximum likelihood.
Well, this doesn't mean it is perfect. How good/bad is it? You can have a look here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...02#post7435402
Now I have no objective elements to argue if those values are good or bad.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #34
  • May 1, 2014 7:40pm May 1, 2014 7:40pm
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Here sir: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post7433203 It is objective because the Kalman filter is the best unbiased estimator with respect to the maximum likelihood. Well, this doesn't mean it is perfect. How good/bad is it? You can have a look here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...02#post7435402 Now I have no objective elements to argue if those values are good or bad.
I have 2 words for you PipMeUp:
ONE: It seems you did a good job.
SECOND: There is a room we can discuss our theories.

Details: I am trying not to draw a trend, but to reach a number in pips for the trend length in a certain currency pair, with that number I build my trade on in taking or exiting that trade. If you think carefully of my ideas, you'll find that I knock on the base of work, not on its details. You do a great job in building and developing your definition to a trend -didn't understand it anyway- so, do you continue your big picture of that? I seek a system with which it generates and updates every element in the market in order for trading automatically. If we put our ideas -every person with his major- we will reach to that.
  • #35
  • May 5, 2014 6:41pm May 5, 2014 6:41pm
Quoting finaladd
{quote} I have 2 words for you PipMeUp: ONE: It seems you did a good job. SECOND: There is a room we can discuss our theories. Details: I am trying not to draw a trend, but to reach a number in pips for the trend length in a certain currency pair, with that number I build my trade on in taking or exiting that trade. If you think carefully of my ideas, you'll find that I knock on the base of work, not on its details. You do a great job in building and developing your definition to a trend -didn't understand it anyway- so, do you continue your big...
Where are you PipMeUp? I am waiting for you.
  • #36
  • Last Post: Sep 4, 2016 2:10am Sep 4, 2016 2:10am
I really want to know, about your indies Sir/. If willing to share the link . Thanks in advance.
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