Losing Streak: Is it because of strategy or bad luck? | Page 3 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

100% bad luck or bad timing? 26 replies

Is opposite of losing strategy a winning strategy? 21 replies

bad luck or manipulation ? 48 replies

Is it luck or what...35 trades w/o losing? 15 replies

Is luck part of profiting/losing in FOREX? 15 replies

Losing Streak: Is it because of strategy or bad luck?

  • #41
  • Apr 22, 2014 6:18am Apr 22, 2014 6:18am
One way to regain confidence could be to take profits earlier. Or to widen your SL. It all depends on your entry rules which I'm not aware of.
If your normal hit rate is 50% with a large RR, there's plenty of room for improvement. In fact, 50% is an excellent score. And if besides your RR is large (how large?) you should be rich by now.

Maybe you should try being less ambiguous. E.g., if you brought your RR to 1:1 either by taking profits or by widening SL, your hit rate should sky rocket and bring you back on the winning trail.

cheers

spock
Be water, my friend
  • #42
  • Apr 22, 2014 7:20am Apr 22, 2014 7:20am
Quoting Magix
{quote} I wouldn't say that the system has necessarily failed, but I would believe that your confidence towards trades may have changed. If you follow static rules and those rules typically produce a greater set of winners for range than losers for the same range, we call that success. Shooting for 100% wins isn't realistic...but neither is 100% losses. 100% losers come from a lack of confidence in that with your losses piling up, your panic level changes with each time you enter a trade. Ya get that prickly armpit feeling...ya start to doubt your...
Yes I agree with that. Moving to a demo scenario when you keep losing is a boon.
  • #43
  • Apr 23, 2014 2:39am Apr 23, 2014 2:39am
Quoting spocktrader
One way to regain confidence could be to take profits earlier. Or to widen your SL. It all depends on your entry rules which I'm not aware of. If your normal hit rate is 50% with a large RR, there's plenty of room for improvement. In fact, 50% is an excellent score. And if besides your RR is large (how large?) you should be rich by now. Maybe you should try being less ambiguous. E.g., if you brought your RR to 1:1 either by taking profits or by widening SL, your hit rate should sky rocket and bring you back on the winning trail. cheers spock
My R/R are 1:2, sometimes 1:5 depends on situation. But yet during this loosing streak, RR wasn't so good. Cause it was hardly catching my tp. But i like your point. Thank you
Discussion is an exchange of knowledge;argument is an exchange of ignorance
  • #44
  • Apr 23, 2014 2:48am Apr 23, 2014 2:48am
Neither. Losing streaks are from changes in market conditions. Markets either range or trend. If you have a mean reverting system, you will make money for awhile then the trend will get you. If you have a trend follower, you will make money for awhile, then the range will get you.

In other words losing streaks are a part of the business. Our job is to be able to quickly spot market changes and activate the correct system. Much easier said than done, of course.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #45
  • Apr 24, 2014 12:14pm Apr 24, 2014 12:14pm
I would say element of luck is still present. You may find plenty of reversal and continuation signals, but for some price will go and for some it will just come back right on you. Money management may help, but the best solution is picking trades which go.

May be something changed in the market and while what you do is correct market finds another reason to be more potent and moves against you. It is all about potency of these competing reasons and ultimately your luck in focusing attention on whatever turns out to be more potent. Trend may help, but trends also come to the end at one point or another.
  • #46
  • Apr 24, 2014 12:23pm Apr 24, 2014 12:23pm
Given enough time any strategy will fail.
  • #47
  • Apr 25, 2014 6:39am Apr 25, 2014 6:39am
Quoting Mingary
Given enough time any strategy will fail.
We're not all one trick ponies. Success is dependent on the trader, not the strategy.
  • #48
  • Apr 27, 2014 7:21am Apr 27, 2014 7:21am
Quoting jmn5611
In other words losing streaks are a part of the business. Our job is to be able to quickly spot market changes and activate the correct system. Much easier said than done, of course.
Well said, really inspiring.
Discussion is an exchange of knowledge;argument is an exchange of ignorance
  • #49
  • Apr 27, 2014 7:41am Apr 27, 2014 7:41am
Quoting jen101
{quote} We're not all one trick ponies. Success is dependent on the trader, not the strategy.
Proper trading demands strict adherence to a chosen strategy.
  • #50
  • Apr 27, 2014 8:08am Apr 27, 2014 8:08am
As a newbie I have a really simple question...

Let's say you have a strategy that works for months... how do you know that it wans't just luck?
  • #51
  • Apr 27, 2014 11:59am Apr 27, 2014 11:59am
Flip a coin 10000 times, you will end up roughly at 50% but looking at the results you will see long periods of streaks where 1 side came up 10-15 times in a row.


Go back and review the winners and losers the past 6 months. Did anything change from 6 months before that? Does your system need trends or reversals? can you backtest on 10 years of data?
  • #52
  • Apr 27, 2014 12:02pm Apr 27, 2014 12:02pm
^ does backtest really works?
Taking today's strategy into the past is gonna work? If the answer is yes, why a strategy could stop to be a winner one?
  • #53
  • Apr 27, 2014 2:40pm Apr 27, 2014 2:40pm
Quoting traider
The market is constantly chamging the way it seeks out S/R. Just beware of that. The umderlying logic remains the same, but the source changes. You would need to get down to the individual candles to see that.
Exactly, the markets can be crazy and whatever strategy or analysis (fundamentals or technicals) you follow, you will always get it wrong. There is no logic sometimes therfore you always need a bit of luck by your side
  • #54
  • Apr 27, 2014 3:02pm Apr 27, 2014 3:02pm
Do you MonkeyFighters even use a chart?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #55
  • Apr 28, 2014 5:04am Apr 28, 2014 5:04am
Quoting Saroman
{quote} Exactly, the markets can be crazy and whatever strategy or analysis (fundamentals or technicals) you follow, you will always get it wrong. There is no logic sometimes therfore you always need a bit of luck by your side
so you are gambling basically?
  • #56
  • Apr 28, 2014 11:59am Apr 28, 2014 11:59am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Proper trading demands strict adherence to a chosen strategy.
Why? You just said that given time any strategy will fail, so why do we all have to go down the failure route?
  • #57
  • Apr 28, 2014 1:00pm Apr 28, 2014 1:00pm
Quoting jen101
{quote} Why? You just said that given time any strategy will fail, so why do we all have to go down the failure route?
All strategies do stop working at some point, but that is for a period of time. It doesn't mean it stops working forever.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #58
  • Apr 28, 2014 5:19pm Apr 28, 2014 5:19pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} All strategies do stop working at some point, but that is for a period of time. It doesn't mean it stops working forever.
Sry for the dumb question... why a strategy is supposed to work for a certain period?
So backtesting is useless?
  • #59
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:55pm Apr 28, 2014 8:55pm
Quoting 4StarGen
{quote} Sry for the dumb question... why a strategy is supposed to work for a certain period? So backtesting is useless?
Back testing is largely useless. When you backtest you are fitting a strategy that worked in the past. Forward testing is the only way to go, and that takes time.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #60
  • Apr 29, 2014 12:49am Apr 29, 2014 12:49am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} All strategies do stop working at some point, but that is for a period of time. It doesn't mean it stops working forever.
Exactly.
0 traders viewing now