The Doctor's 5Percent Forex Journal

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I got a feeling ...

The story repeats itself, over and over and over and over and ...
Sooner or later ... commercial section.

Good hunting Doctor

Currency Pairs : USDSGD & CADSGD

Technical Perspectives:

USDSGD managed to find support last thursday near 1.2485, and the unemployment data was bullish at 304K same as previous near figure 300K, along with a bullish philly index at 16.6 which helped to lift the USDSGD back to above immediate pivot of 1.2510. Currently USDSGD is engaged in a breakout condition in a potential triangle breakout. However, key resistance still lies near 1.2550, above 1.2550, price will retrace back to previous support zone of 1.2570-90.
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Meanwhile, CADSGD's trend is still down, but lifting up from last week's support zone, and key lies at the trendline, breaking above, we can see CAD lifting higher against the SGD. Meanwhile, the strength of SGD against CAD can be seen on USDSGD. Once USDSGD break higher than 1.2550, CADSGD will rotate higher. Vice Versa, if USDSGD found resistance again below 1.2550, CADSGD will trend lower.

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The Doctor

A Daily Perceptive on $AUDUSD as interpreted on the Chart with neutral bias.

A Perceptive on $GBPUSD Daily chart as interpreted on the Chart with neutral bias.

Currency Pairs : USDSGD & CADSGD

Technical Perspectives:

USDSGD is likely to trend higher from here, as indicated on the breakout triangle yesterday and today. While writing, it has already moved above yesterday's resistance of 1.2535, and now challenging the 1.2545-50's downtrend resistance. Above 1.2550, we may see price trading back to 1.2570 and higher. But chances are, price may find resistance at 1.2570-90 first and retrace back to 1.2545 from then. Meanwhile, there isn't any major news from yesterday and news data will be lighter, but price may start to retrace much more on the dollar.

CADSGD is pretty much ranging, but has moved out from down-trend line and possible to trade higher if USDSGD breakout, which indicates a weaker SGD, this can be seen on USDSGD at 1.2545's mark. Above 1.2550, CADSGD may also surge higher pass the R1 mark.

Currency Pairs : USDSGD & CADSGD

Technical Perspectives:

The dollar is slightly stronger against the Sing, as USDSGD broke above resistance at 1.2545 yesterday and surged towards estimated of 1.2570 as indicated on yesterday's chart. The immediate trend is bullish for the dollar against the Sing but it arrived at the key previous support zone which may provide resistance just ahead of AUD's CPI data and China PMI Data which is the key trigger at 9.30am-9.45am +8 GMT today.

Above 1.2575, USDSGD will go higher, meanwhile any rotation lower may find bids at past 5 days resistance of 1.2535-1.2545.

Meanwhile, CADSGD has also retraced back to R1 as indicated on the chart as USDSGD is stronger. SGD is generally weaker against most of other majors and minors, which includes the GBPSGD and AUDSGD.

Currency Pairs : USDSGD & CADSGD

Technical Perspectives:

$USDSGD has reached its former support zone of 1.2570-85 yesterday hitting a high near 1.2582 ahead of New home Sales released. Upon release, $USDSGD retraced lower as new home sales arrived weaker at 384k Versus consensus of 455K and previous 449K. USDJPY and other JPY crosses were also slightly weaker during the evening sessions. EUR was the best performing currency with AUD as the weakest yesterday after CPI release and china PMI which arrived at a weaker data.

For $USDSGD to move higher, it must maintain a close above its monday's resistance of 1.2545. Failure, price will be bearish to rotate lower.

Meanwhile, CADSGD remained broadly rangy.

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Hello 5percent,

Do you not trade Gold? Would like to see your analysis on this metal on regular basis.

Thanks,

Currency Pairs : USDSGD & CADSGD

Technical Perspectives:

USDSGD managed to find bids off near its previous resistance of 1.2545 at 1.2547 during the Asia pull back yesterday, as it resumed its bullish momentum for the day and surged pass resistance of 1.2582 towards 1.2592 during the US sessions.

However, the Dollar's strength remained broadly mixed, as EUR was relatively stronger while GBP and AUD managed to continue finds bids from its wednesday's lo. Along with fundamental updates on Russia which caused some rather mixed reactions in the US sessions as the gold spiked down and up.

Meanwhile, CADSGD is showing some bullish view despite standing back at resistance 1, where seller are position to sell. Pushing above R1, will lead price higher. This can be reference from USDSGD if above yesterday's US session high of 1.2592. CADSGD will be even more bullish. Mainly, there are still some offers below sub 1.2600. Above, 1.2600 price will resumed its bullish view. The monthly pivot stands at 1.2580.

I don't trade gold on a regular basis. But here's an outlook.

$XAUUSD

Interesting! Many thanks, 5percent. Would like to see more is/when new moves becomes evident.

Currency Pairs : USDSGD & CADSGD

Technical Perspectives:

USDSGD is now trading above former resistance of 1.2545 and resisted below 1.2600 level as mentioned that there will be offers below 1.26 level. USDSGD is likely to remain range trading between 1.2545-1.26, with a buy lo sell high scenario. Until heavier fundamental, from Wednesdays on kicks in.

Key events: US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, US Advance GDP q/q, US FOMC Statement and Non-Farm Employment Change along with US unemployment rate.

Thus, this week is slightly more volatile.

Meanwhile, CADSGD remained broadly range at the lower support channel as indicated on the chart, with sellers seen on R1 and buyers at S1.

Currency Pairs : USDSGD & CADSGD

Technical Perspectives:

USDSGD is trading much lower since wednesday's fundamental event, mainly triggered by a weaker US GDP which arrived at 0.1% vs 1.2% and previous of 2.6% at its 6 month low. Despite a bigger than expected ADP report, USD was slightly weaker as it closed the month below its pivot level signifying possibility to test lower support technically.

Much Of USD weakness was ignited by GBP's strength as it surged past its 4 years high near 1.6860 towards 1.6920 before retracing just yesterday.

The FOMC minutes was dovish for the USD as it was a much later minute than the latest updates aligned with ADP's figures. The FED continues to taper but hinted that economy is still weak, and unemployment remained levitated.

The Key mover for today is a monthly event of NFP, where the economist or statistic board have forecast a bullish figure at 216K which is a figure that was achieved in March 2013 where it arrived at 236K, Consensus data would often compromised on the strength of the currency itself . As its much easier to miss the forecast if its placed significantly too high, unless there are credibility of a trending higher basis and statistics over the past months, which in this occasion none.

Currency Pairs : USDSGD & CADSGD

Technical Perspectives:

USDSGD received some bids off its support 1 near 1.2585 just on the Monday trading day, with key resistance at 1.2521 and key support at 1.2449. USDSGD is still resisted below 1.2521 which was its previous support potentially a resistance point, only a move above 1.2521 will signify the trend has stabilized from the NFP event.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI which arrived slightly positive at 55.2 vs 54.3 has helped to lift up the dollar, which could be seen on the USDJPY as well as it moved back to its monday's opening.

CADSGD has also received another round of bids off its S1, with more range trading seen, with seller coming at resistance and buyers at support point.

Currency Pairs : USDSGD & CADSGD

Technical Perspectives:


The wednesday market was slightly rangy with lower volatility seen, despite there was Yellen testify and testimony. The market didn't move as much as tuesday, as it was still range-bound.

The key highlight is Yellen expects assets purchases to end this fall if goes as planned, the $10B taper per meeting timeline is entirely baked into the markets. As unemployment rate fell further to 6.3%, yellen also suggest that economy is likely to continue to recover on the consistent pace align with recent means of 200K data output from NFP. But suggested that inflation is still low, giving room for the FED not to increase or hike the interest rates as yet, until inflation has start to move towards 2% benchmark.

USDSGD managed to stay above its key support of 1.2449, as it makes a u-turn on 1.2464 level reclaiming back 1 level of old support at 1.2485, and is likely to retrace higher given a positive dollar catalyst to come, trend has temporary halt for the time being. But tonight there is a ECB press conference which could easily move the market by a difference of 1% across the majors, whipsaw can also be anticipated as the EUR dollar is standing at a make or break level at 1.39 just shy of 1.40 level. Breaking above will trigger a domino effect on USD's weakness further, however a plunge in EUR will temporary give USD the sudden retracement rebound from its recent sell off.

CADSGD is now standing firm near its lower high resistance channel at R1, which was the R2, above current R1`will challenge key resistance seen on the chart, which could be indicated on USDSGD at 1.2521 and above, where CADSGD will breakout against SGD, which may result in a weaker SGD.

Currency Pairs : USDSGD & CADSGD

Technical Perspectives:

Draghi was pressed several times in the Q & A session on the topic on exchange rates as he attempted to beat around the bush several time but hinted that Price stability is the main factor of helping Euro recovery, money markets were hinted that "Price stability is unlikely to push above 1.40 as that will lead to technical breakout and EURUSD will surge higher".

Offers and take profits were seen very shortly in the middle of the ECB press conference as it slammed more than 100 pips initially within 10 minutes before further tumbling down to 1.3830 before stabilizing for the day, making it a double top seen on a daily chart, with the last high near 1.3970 and current one at 1.3992. EURUSD was the worst performer for the day losing 1.6% from its high, and day loss of 0.9%.

CAD was the top former as it ramped against EUR 2.5% while pushing CADSGD towards key resistance. On the chart below, above key resistance is a technical breakout against the SGD, and SGD is likely to lose its strength further, which may assist to lift up USDSGD.

USD was slightly stronger in the night but did not really moved much against SGD, as SGD has already been counted as a safe haven placement after CHF and JPY.

USDSGD has re-tested support near 1.2455 just 6 pips from its low of 1.2449 where it rebounded again, if 1.2450 maintained it could be seen as a double bottom and is possible to move higher. Only a breach of 1.2449 will indicate a down-trend for USD, whereas buyers and bids are entering at the key support zone.

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Currency Pairs : USDSGD & CADSGD

Technical Perspectives:

USDSGD has re-test 1.2538 yesterday during the late europe sessions seen on the Resistance 1, prices remain rangy between 1.2538-1.2480. A move above 1.2540 is likely to ignite the bullish trend momentum, where as intra-day pivot is 1.2506 which may provide resistance turns support if uptrend is intact. Below 1.2506, price is very likely to re-test 1.2480.

CADSGD has moved higher and re-tested near key resistance but has retraced below the key resistance but temporary found support at S1 which was the previous day R1, S1 is currently the key pivot to the upside.

The market mover seen were GBP and EUR, with EUR showing sign of rebounding after finding strong support at 1.3650 level despite US data were bullish in favor of USD, where unemployment claims arrived at 297K lowest in 7 years.

Market is likely to retrace for the week unless new fundamental starts to flood the market again, such as risk events and such.

Currency Pairs : USDSGD & CADSGD

Technical Perspectives:

USDSGD's remained controlled by sellers at key resistance of 1.2540, after failing more than 3 times to break above last week. Only a move above 1.2540 will ignite the bullish momentum, else sellers remained in control below that level. Meanwhile, intra-day support lies at 1.2498 and 1.2480 respectively. And key support stands at 1.2449. We are looking at a bigger range between 1.2449-1.2540 within the first few days prior to FOMC.

Meanwhile CADSGD is showing some bullish momentum despite standing near key resistance of 1.1540, a move above 1.1540 should ignite a breakout momentum to the upside. Likewise, sellers are coming in at this level to sell until 1.1540 starts to give way. Broader picture price should range between R1 and S2.

Key data for today: German Ifo Business Climate and US New Home Sales