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Weekly/h4 trend trading - flow

  • #161
  • Apr 21, 2014 8:37am Apr 21, 2014 8:37am
thanks for your reply 60MM

Quote
You could do that but I think it's a rule I would ignore anyway, so no real point.

So I understand this to mean, just continue with the trade plan and occasionally you will have bad weeks where it will take around 4 entries to position yourself.

cheers for your help

Jay
  • #162
  • Apr 21, 2014 9:16am Apr 21, 2014 9:16am
Quoting hungry pips
thanks for your reply 60MM {quote} So I understand this to mean, just continue with the trade plan and occasionally you will have bad weeks where it will take around 4 entries to position yourself. cheers for your help Jay
yes... accept the market will be good and bad too you... the main thinking with this approach is, can an odds and probabilities approach where all the decisions are already determined perform as well or better than an approach where we assess the market at each point then decide. Humans are particularly bad at making rational decisions, so I don't think the technical approach will work for most traders. Maybe wht so many people struggle to make profit.
tradewith60
  • #163
  • Edited 8:40pm Apr 22, 2014 5:36pm | Edited 8:40pm
Is it possible that there is there a statistically significant point at which we should stop trying to enter (stacking our positions) and instead liquidate our all of our positions in that currency pair?

In other words, based on good money management and "understanding" of trends, do you think is there a point when we should probably bail out of a currency due to likely trend reversal? For example, after 8 or 10 failed entries; since we often only have a failure of 3-4 entries.

Thanks!
It's all in the hips and nips.
  • #164
  • Apr 22, 2014 11:07pm Apr 22, 2014 11:07pm
60minute man - If I may, sir:

A 600ema on a 4H chart I don't think would work. True that it would keep you in a trend for the longest. But Price could be above the 600ema on a 4H and then drop heavily from a pinnacle point for an entire month... and at the end of that drop, price is still above the 600ema on a 4H. If the idea is to keep a leg running for years... yes, good. But tackling emotions could be difficult.

I read in your H4 Power thread that in February you were taking trades both ways, which I think emotionally should be better. If I may, might I ask why you stopped doing that?
  • #165
  • Apr 23, 2014 11:30am Apr 23, 2014 11:30am
http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/46579591
tradewith60
  • #166
  • Apr 23, 2014 11:34am Apr 23, 2014 11:34am
Quoting chiba_san
60minute man - If I may, sir: A 600ema on a 4H chart I don't think would work. True that it would keep you in a trend for the longest. But Price could be above the 600ema on a 4H and then drop heavily from a pinnacle point for an entire month... and at the end of that drop, price is still above the 600ema on a 4H. If the idea is to keep a leg running for years... yes, good. But tackling emotions could be difficult. I read in your H4 Power thread that in February you were taking trades both ways, which I think emotionally should be better. If I may,...
HI Chiba, if price reverses that strongly you will be offered very few opportunities to go against it.

H4power is a technical approach, this is odds and probabilities. Why change? because I spend less time trading and thinking..

With regards psychology, in a random market any approach will have challenges to your psyche, making rational decisions at key moments decides the winners from the losers, nothing else..
tradewith60
  • #167
  • Apr 23, 2014 11:42am Apr 23, 2014 11:42am
Quoting danielJackso
Is it possible that there is there a statistically significant point at which we should stop trying to enter (stacking our positions) and instead liquidate our all of our positions in that currency pair? In other words, based on good money management and "understanding" of trends, do you think is there a point when we should probably bail out of a currency due to likely trend reversal? For example, after 8 or 10 failed entries; since we often only have a failure of 3-4 entries. Thanks!
You can if you feel better, really the only parts that matter are:

1: you look for a high TF trend (strongest v weakest)
2. you buy/sell into that trend at the extremese (retraces of the trend).
3.use money management to take mid and long term profits
4. achieve high average RR.

if you feel a trend has paused, you can of course wait for a weekly close to convince you the trend has resumed...
tradewith60
  • #168
  • Apr 23, 2014 11:50am Apr 23, 2014 11:50am
Try not to get caught up in my rules, think of the bigger picture: costs, profit, frequency.

Then you can tailor a strat to suit your needs instantly...

try... use weekly close for direction, if last week closed down sell any m15 reversals at the high of next week, aim for 4/1 RR, opposite for longs.... as an example

or do the same but only with weekly reversals.... or weekly engulfs.... all the same idea using the big moves to power higher RR on the lower TF's
tradewith60
  • #169
  • Apr 23, 2014 10:01pm Apr 23, 2014 10:01pm
Quoting 60minuteman
http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/46579591

Is that you 60minuteman?
Weren't you a an Apple guy a while back?
  • #170
  • Apr 24, 2014 3:08am Apr 24, 2014 3:08am
Quoting acbrasil
{quote} Is that you 60minuteman? Weren't you a an Apple guy a while back?
I am an apple guy, but no, that's just something I watched and I thought there was a lot of similarities in the way he trades.
tradewith60
  • #171
  • Apr 24, 2014 6:21am Apr 24, 2014 6:21am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} I am an apple guy, but no, that's just something I watched and I thought there was a lot of similarities in the way he trades.
Interesting vid and strategy thanks 60minuteman! I'll even forgive you for being an apple fanboy
  • #172
  • Apr 24, 2014 6:48am Apr 24, 2014 6:48am
Quoting jonnypants
{quote} Interesting vid and strategy thanks 60minuteman! I'll even forgive you for being an apple fanboy
thanks johny... I am the worst kinda apple fan too....
tradewith60
  • #173
  • Apr 24, 2014 7:52am Apr 24, 2014 7:52am
Quoting 60minuteman
http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/46579591
Yes, great video, thanks for that.

60mm, according to you - how important is it to know the direction of the trend. I know it sounds like a very stupid question, seeing that the whole idea is to get an entry in the direction of the trend and then ride it for a lot of pips. Or is it more a case as with entry selection....that we hope we have the direction correct, but if we don't, that's not a train smash as we will eventually get an entry with the trend and then we will "cash in"?

In other words, according to you, how much effort should we put into determining the trend? Because there are also various ways to try and determine the direction of the trend: Your current way by using HTF MA's, or as in the video with a breakout of a HTF channel or one could also go the Fundamentals route as for example monitor the sentiments about interest rates as that could most probably dictate the longer term trend. ........is it worth putting a lot of learning and studying into ways to better identifying the trend direction?

Hope you understand what I am asking in a sort of clumsy way.

Regards
  • #174
  • Apr 24, 2014 8:16am Apr 24, 2014 8:16am
Quoting mor707
{quote} Yes, great video, thanks for that. 60mm, according to you - how important is it to know the direction of the trend. I know it sounds like a very stupid question, seeing that the whole idea is to get an entry in the direction of the trend and then ride it for a lot of pips. Or is it more a case as with entry selection....that we hope we have the direction correct, but if we don't, that's not a train smash as we will eventually get an entry with the trend and then we will "cash in"? In other words, according to you, how much effort should...
Forgive me for chipping in, IMO - if know the trend then you have an edge, BUT, if your broker (or country's laws) allow you to carry trades in both directions, then you can enter sells at the weekly highs and buys at the weekly lows and just allow the market to determine which survive over time. As you will be hedged and/or using double entry with or without moving stop to BE, the DD will not be unbearable and when the market has shaken everything out, you will be left with a good set of stacks at the beginning of every trend - win-win.
  • #175
  • Apr 24, 2014 8:23am Apr 24, 2014 8:23am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Forgive me for chipping in, IMO - if know the trend then you have an edge, BUT, if your broker (or country's laws) allow you to carry trades in both directions, then you can enter sells at the weekly highs and buys at the weekly lows and just allow the market to determine which survive over time. As you will be hedged and/or using double entry with or without moving stop to BE, the DD will not be unbearable and when the market has shaken everything out, you will be left with a good set of stacks at the beginning of every trend - win-win....
agree... you can trade this with no bias, in fact it was the original idea. trade the extremes and let the market decide, it is not without it's psychological issues though.

Some people I know trade this with no bias and do very well.
tradewith60
  • #176
  • Apr 24, 2014 8:28am Apr 24, 2014 8:28am
Quoting mor707
{quote} Yes, great video, thanks for that. 60mm, according to you - how important is it to know the direction of the trend. I know it sounds like a very stupid question, seeing that the whole idea is to get an entry in the direction of the trend and then ride it for a lot of pips. Or is it more a case as with entry selection....that we hope we have the direction correct, but if we don't, that's not a train smash as we will eventually get an entry with the trend and then we will "cash in"? In other words, according to you, how much effort should...
I get what you're asking mor.... I think picking the right instruments to trade and determining the trend is very important. It's also important that it is the trend on the highest timeframes we are concerned with. Picking the strongest against the weakest, like the trader in the video is a very smart approach.

You could also incorporate some of Hollowheads suggestion and use a simple MA to determine the trend but also be open to taking counter trend entries.
tradewith60
  • #177
  • Apr 24, 2014 8:53am Apr 24, 2014 8:53am
60mm and hollowhead,

Thanks guys for your comments, very interesting and gives me something to ponder on
  • #178
  • Apr 24, 2014 12:18pm Apr 24, 2014 12:18pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} agree... you can trade this with no bias, in fact it was the original idea. trade the extremes and let the market decide, it is not without it's psychological issues though. Some people I know trade this with no bias and do very well.

hey 60 my man,
always good to read your views on trading & the market

the very nice thing about what you suggests is that trading can be totally different than just searching for entry signals, be it indicators, candle pattern, or even price action bars. As they say, even bars lag.
Trading is so much more about location. You trade the reaction of price at some levels you assume will have an effect on price.

The difficult thing to me is weighting the effect the level may have on price. I really guess I need more chart time to gain confidence in my trading capabilities.
Well, trading is a never ending learning process, and life's long
As far as i'm concerned, and I am well aware it is a very personal opinion, I think I better start with a method that may lead to a smaller equity curve but that will increase my confidence in trading. After all, it's just been 2 years, and I come from so far that I really consider this time as non significant

Still, your posts truly resonate, and your methods are definitely on my todo list. I HAVE to work on levels

take care
Slow & steady
  • #179
  • May 6, 2014 4:02pm May 6, 2014 4:02pm
Hello 60MM, you have not posted here for a while. How is the going with this method, still proding the goods? Thanks
  • #180
  • May 7, 2014 9:06am May 7, 2014 9:06am
Hi 60mm
have you found any other trend direction bias indies you have liked and added?
I really do like this strat and intend to fine tune my own personal touch.
So thanks again for sharing
Jay
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