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Attachments: TEB: Random Entry - Coin Toss Great with R.R.R.
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TEB: Random Entry - Coin Toss Great with R.R.R.

  • #61
  • Apr 18, 2014 3:43pm Apr 18, 2014 3:43pm
Quoting TEB63
{quote} not sure were you are going with this?
Wait...Enter...Wait...Exit...

Wait...Enter...Wait...Exit...

....

Wait is not included in your random coin flip.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #62
  • Apr 18, 2014 3:45pm Apr 18, 2014 3:45pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Wait...Enter...Wait...Exit... Wait...Enter...Wait...Exit... .... Wait is not included in your random coin flip.
ok .... no that is not the idea of the thread - but in normal trading that is very wise
  • #63
  • Apr 19, 2014 12:13pm Apr 19, 2014 12:13pm
With luck, and with the tp and stop losses adjusted to go with the conditions, you should have some interesting results:
-I would be interested in how you determined the market conditions, and whether you think some news events could have play with your results:
Curious to know how long it would take you to either double your money or go broke.
If you double your money rather quickly ( say less than two years) I would say your money management and your ability to judge the status of the market are outstanding.
If you lose quickly I would still have to wonder if a better method of money management and of judgement of the market status would have helped.

Whichever way it turns out, the information should be of profit.

Of course there are better ways to enter a pair than a coin toss -- aren't there?

Such cynicism: of course there are -- aren't there?
  • #64
  • Apr 19, 2014 5:47pm Apr 19, 2014 5:47pm
TEB63,

Why not simply use your current 20 RSI and 5 & 12 EMAs thread as the entry for all the trades and apply your RRR and MM methods to that setup? I realize this notion spoils the intent of this thread, but it may prove to be a nice enhancement to your other thread...

Great trading!
BC2
  • #65
  • Apr 19, 2014 5:59pm Apr 19, 2014 5:59pm
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-is...anagement.html
tradewith60
  • #66
  • Apr 19, 2014 6:07pm Apr 19, 2014 6:07pm
Quoting Bobcat2
TEB63, Why not simply use your current 20 RSI and 5 & 12 EMAs thread as the entry for all the trades and apply your RRR and MM methods to that setup? I realize this notion spoils the intent of this thread, but it may prove to be a nice enhancement to your other thread... Great trading! BC2
I could be wrong but I believe he's already using similar MM methods in his RSI/EMA strategy that he's been trading profitably for years already. I think the purpose of this experiment is to find out whether a trader can make a profit just by using a good MM method without having a good entry system. In my opinion so many systems are so focused on getting a "perfect" entry as if it's the most important part of trading. I think if TEB is profitable with this method it'll show that MM is just as important if not more than the entry.
  • #67
  • Apr 19, 2014 6:26pm Apr 19, 2014 6:26pm
Quoting 60minuteman
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-is...anagement.html

very interesting!
The ADR is not a bad idea either by the way
thx
  • #68
  • Apr 19, 2014 6:27pm Apr 19, 2014 6:27pm
Quoting srt
{quote} I could be wrong but I believe he's already using similar MM methods in his RSI/EMA strategy that he's been trading profitably for years already. I think the purpose of this experiment is to find out whether a trader can make a profit just by using a good MM method without having a good entry system. In my opinion so many systems are so focused on getting a "perfect" entry as if it's the most important part of trading. I think if TEB is profitable with this method it'll show that MM is just as important if not more than the entry.

YEP! you are right the MM and RRR are the same
the change is in the SET rules the E is the only change
  • #69
  • Apr 19, 2014 6:28pm Apr 19, 2014 6:28pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
With luck, and with the tp and stop losses adjusted to go with the conditions, you should have some interesting results: -I would be interested in how you determined the market conditions, and whether you think some news events could have play with your results: Curious to know how long it would take you to either double your money or go broke. If you double your money rather quickly ( say less than two years) I would say your money management and your ability to judge the status of the market are outstanding. If you lose quickly I would still have...

Its just for fun ... I am not risking a lot at all.
  • #70
  • Apr 19, 2014 6:31pm Apr 19, 2014 6:31pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
With luck, and with the tp and stop losses adjusted to go with the conditions, you should have some interesting results: -I would be interested in how you determined the market conditions, and whether you think some news events could have play with your results: Curious to know how long it would take you to either double your money or go broke. If you double your money rather quickly ( say less than two years) I would say your money management and your ability to judge the status of the market are outstanding. If you lose quickly I would still have...

better then flipping a coin? really lol
  • #71
  • Apr 19, 2014 6:37pm Apr 19, 2014 6:37pm
Quoting 60minuteman
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-is...anagement.html
  • #72
  • Apr 20, 2014 8:16pm Apr 20, 2014 8:16pm
The way I see it all entries are a random coin toss. We like to convince ourself that there's some deeper technical edge going on that increases their chance of success but in reality we're often looking for the wrong things.

We should be looking for locations that make then entry viable for the bigger RR trades as opposed to looking for just a winning trade. The difference is subtle but makes a huge difference to your profits. When people try to improve their results they will nearly always look to reducing losses and rarely look at increasing the size of the winners.

I think TEB could/should stretch it even further and look for 7/1 - 10/1 RR, after a certain ratio the win rate doesn't really fall much more anyway and the profits really start to accelerate.
tradewith60
  • #73
  • Apr 20, 2014 8:20pm Apr 20, 2014 8:20pm
Quoting 60minuteman
When people try to improve their results they will nearly always look to reducing losses and rarely look at increasing the size of the winners. I think TEB could/should stretch it even further and look for 7/1 - 10/1 RR, after a certain ratio the win rate doesn't really fall much more anyway and the profits really start to accelerate.
Well said. Exits are EVERYTHING. We should put as much effort into them as we do entries. Whether in leaving a trade, a corner, a relationship or a life, focus on making a great exit....
  • #74
  • Apr 20, 2014 8:41pm Apr 20, 2014 8:41pm
Quoting 60minuteman
The way I see it all entries are a random coin toss. We like to convince ourself that there's some deeper technical edge going on that increases their chance of success but in reality we're often looking for the wrong things. We should be looking for locations that make then entry viable for the bigger RR trades as opposed to looking for just a winning trade. The difference is subtle but makes a huge difference to your profits. When people try to improve their results they will nearly always look to reducing losses and rarely look at increasing...

I had thought about going for "10 baggers:"
But I do think we can we can increase our winning rates
1. with trend
2. with good Stop Losses and good targets
  • #75
  • Apr 20, 2014 8:43pm Apr 20, 2014 8:43pm
Quoting Hyperion
{quote} Well said. Exits are EVERYTHING. We should put as much effort into them as we do entries. Whether in leaving a trade, a corner, a relationship or a life, focus on making a great exit....
I think its not entries or stops that are more important - I think in fact they are of equal important
S.E.T. rules are all important !!

just my two cents
  • #76
  • Apr 20, 2014 10:00pm Apr 20, 2014 10:00pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} Thank you for clarifying you are only using a random entry. ~~ The exit point can change your profit result. Sure, use a fixed stop loss for losers, and a trailing stop for winners, and I think eventually you will come out ahead. ~~ There is a well known trailing stop method that could help in this situation. It places the stop at the highest/lowest of the previous 3 candles.
I do not think your fascination with trailing stops is a healthy one. I do not say this to challenge your views or even to impact on them, simple to point that we all trade differently and what is suitable for one method is not necessarily suitable for another.

Given that Teb has stated his methodology for this thread, I do not see the need for peeps to be telling him what will and what will not work and what he should change.

From my own point of view, which I accept is different from many on FF, the reason we pay so much attention to entries is because of the stop. We can not afford to trade without them, but this means our trade is at it's greatest risk of being wiped out at the time of our entry. So we look for an entry at a time when price will quickly move away from our stop. When we get an entry that works, it makes no sense to then move the stop back into the firing line.

I also think having a TP at the time of entry is a good idea and do not know any other way of trading.
Good Trading
  • #77
  • Apr 22, 2014 4:23am Apr 22, 2014 4:23am
Quoting aud
{quote} I do not think your fascination with trailing stops is a healthy one. I do not say this to challenge your views or even to impact on them, simple to point that we all trade differently and what is suitable for one method is not necessarily suitable for another. Given that Teb has stated his methodology for this thread, I do not see the need for peeps to be telling him what will and what will not work and what he should change. From my own point of view, which I accept is different from many on FF, the reason we pay so much attention...
Well said. If more people had your opinion that we should only read threads and not respond to them, FF would be an online magazine full of one liner articles.

Thank you also for criticizing my suggestions for stops and then telling us all how important they are to you LOL. You bank traders always make me smile I don't even use stops, but it is because I too trade entirely different than you. 99% of traders set profit targets, like you right? So when price finally moves from your entry, are you not taught to move your stop to break even so it is a zero sum trade???? At that point, should you decide to trail the stop, you are guaranteed profit versus leaving it a zillion miles away and then not exiting because your profit target never got hit, so you let it reverse and take you out for a loss. But hey, if you want to suggest that to all your viewers, in America we allow your opinion, no matter how ignorant it is. People who offer improvements to other people's methods do so because they know how to make money. Money talks, AUD walks.

I always appreciate challenges to logic. Occasionally it causes an alternate view that will tweak out a little more profit. I hope your little rant to me will improve your ability to trade. Sometimes just talking through your ideas or methods helps you see errors or improvements more readily. For that, I hope you see a little more clearly now. For me, you are like water on a duck, lol. For readers, now you have the opposing view that is once again, really only another stupid attack from another novice trading pen and paper Wall Street tactics and getting eaten alive. This is why I hardly ever post in FF. Too many vampires (from the Lost Boys movie) lol Voila
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #78
  • Apr 22, 2014 6:35am Apr 22, 2014 6:35am
Quoting dkrock
{quote} Well said. If more people had your opinion that we should only read threads and not respond to them, FF would be an online magazine full of one liner articles. Thank you also for criticizing my suggestions for stops and then telling us all how important they are to you LOL. You bank traders always make me smile I don't even use stops, but it is because I too trade entirely different than you. 99% of traders set profit targets, like you right? So when price finally moves from your entry, are you not taught to move your stop to break even...

Hi Guys lets all play nice- This is an open thread and everyone can have a say. I may try something different after the 20 trades.
  • #79
  • Apr 22, 2014 6:36am Apr 22, 2014 6:36am
Trades 1 - the Queen comes up over the little boat (lol) so its a buy
I really do not know which way I would be buying or selling on this charts- so the flip is likely as good as any
the stop is easy to find on the hour chart below the pin bar- The target is there on the day sort of (?)
The RRR is a little better then 3 to 1

The race is on
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  • #80
  • Apr 23, 2014 6:07am Apr 23, 2014 6:07am
trade 2
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