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  • #161
  • Apr 16, 2014 12:41pm Apr 16, 2014 12:41pm
updating my view on EUR USD. 4000 is still game ON next week, easter week trading volumes are thin and prolly Thursday won't be a game changer.

Monday-Tuesday next week should set dynamics for EU to take on 4000 and GU take on 7000. Would be good to get some action then.

Until then. RR.
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  • #162
  • Apr 17, 2014 2:57pm Apr 17, 2014 2:57pm
week update / recap. As expected and posted previously EUR AUD did a retrace this week to 4840, all my positions were closed for a profit of
approx 220 000 USD.

Currently have 20 mln GBP LONG via CALL OPTIONS 2-4 months out in the money. My targets on GU LONG are 7000 and 7200 initially and we might take a chance @ 7400 within 3 months (until end of summer 2014).

Here's a summary of GBP USD LEVELS WORTH WATCHING.




1.7740 ULTIMATE RESISTANCE
1.7440 STRONG RESISTANCE
1.7140 RESISTANCE
1.7120 RESISTANCE
1.7040 STRONG RESISTANCE
1.6900 RESISTANCE
1.6860 RESISTANCE
1.6840 RESISTANCE
  • #163
  • Apr 17, 2014 2:59pm Apr 17, 2014 2:59pm
FROM NOW ON I WILL ONLY POST IN MY THREAD AT FOREX FACTORY AND WILL UPDATE ANALYSIS OVER THE WEEKENDS.

TIRED OF HATE/DISRESPECT/SHILLS/SCHOOL KIDS/DEMO AND MICRO-LOT TRADERS BASHING.

I'VE BEEN AROUND FX AND EQUITIES SINCE 2002 AND POSTED MY ANALYSIS ON PUBLIC FORUMS FOR A LONG TIME. I DON'T NEED ANYONES RECOGNITION FOR THAT MATTER AS WELL. GOOD LUCK TRADERS!
  • #164
  • Apr 17, 2014 3:02pm Apr 17, 2014 3:02pm
Quoting ruffryders
updating my view on eur usd. 4000 is still game on next week, easter week trading volumes are thin and prolly thursday won't be a game changer. Monday-tuesday next week should set dynamics for eu to take on 4000 and gu take on 7000. Would be good to get some action then. Until then. Rr. {image}
the above scenario is maintained on eur usd. Eur usd should try to take out 4000 within 1-3 weeks and ultimately will try to trade above 4040. possible upside @ 4200-4300. Once we reach 4200-4300 we could look for topping action on eur usd.
  • #165
  • Apr 18, 2014 8:58am Apr 18, 2014 8:58am
high probability trade setup on gbp jpy

long at market open after holiday
stop loss 60 points
tp1 172.60 (+60)
tp2 173.40 (+140)

current bid 171.96
  • #166
  • Apr 18, 2014 9:21am Apr 18, 2014 9:21am
gbp nzd is set to take off. At current levels (9550) i see at least another 500 points of upside. If i was to take this trade, i'd got in with sl 100 points tp 500 points. Looks promising due to tower bottom formation on daily.
  • #167
  • Edited 12:13pm Apr 19, 2014 11:59am | Edited 12:13pm
CROWD PSYCHOLOGY WAS THE SAME BACK WHEN I STARTED FX 2002 AND IT DIDN'T CHANGE MUCH SINCE. 60-70% OF RETAIL TRADERS ARE CURRENTLY POSITIONED NET SHORT ON EUR USD, WITH STOPS @ 3950 - 4050 - 4150 AREA.

SAME OLD STUFF RINSE AND REPEAT - BUNCH OF UNKNOWN/DEMO-TRADING GURUS CALLING AN ALL OUT SHORT FOR THE EURO AND THE POUND, WHILE BOTH ARE IN CLEAR UPTREND.

CROWD SENTIMENT @ 60% SHORT EURO AND CLOSE TO 70% ON THE GBP USD.

WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT YOU MIGHT BE WONDERING? MASSIVE SHORT SQUEEZE AND EUR USD CLEARING 4000 AND GBP USD TARGETING 7000 AND BEYOND.

THINK THAT'S CRAZY? WELL HERE'S A GOOD PIECE FOR YOU TO READ OVER THE WEEKEND. http://www.ibtimes.com/eurusd-foreca...est-145-300000

BACK IN JULY 2009 EUR USD @ 4200 EVERY SINGLE COCA COLA KID WAS BUILDING HIS SHORTS, I MEAN LIKE LITERALLY, EVERY KID ON THE BLOCK JUST SHORTED. WHAT HAPPENED NEXT? 4500 EUR USD AND THEN SOME ... IT WENT AS HIGH AS 5000 BEFORE FINALLY FINDING A TOP AND SELLING OFF.

NOW THINK ABOUT IT FOR A SECOND? WHY WOULD IT BE ANY DIFFERENT THIS TIME AROUND? OH, YEAH, THE GURUS ARE CALLING A TOP, THAT'S RIGHT. GOT IT! GOOD POINT.

TAKE CARE TRADERS, GOOD LUCK, ENJOY YOUR DRINK.

RR
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  • #168
  • Apr 19, 2014 12:07pm Apr 19, 2014 12:07pm
Quoting ruffryders
CROWD PSYCHOLOGY WAS THE SAME BACK WHEN I STARTED FX 2002 AND IT DIDN'T CHANGE MUCH SINCE. 60-70% OF RETAIL TRADERS ARE CURRENTLY POSITIONED NET SHORT ON EUR USD, WITH STOPS @ 3950 - 4050 - 4150 AREA. SAME OLD STUFF RINSE AND REPEAT - BUNCH OF UNKNOWN/DEMO-TRADING GURUS CALLING AN ALL OUT SHORT FOR THE EURO AND THE POUND, WHILE BOTH ARE IN CLEAR UPTREND. CROWD SENTIMENT @ 60% SHORT EURO AND CLOSE TO 70% ON THE GBP USD. WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT YOU MIGHT BE WONDERING? MASSIVE SHORT SQUEEZE AND EUR USD CLEARING 4000 AND GBP USD TARGETING 7000 AND...
SHORTERS AND GURUS ADDING NET SHORTS EURUSD AND GBPUSD, WHILE GBPUSD TOOK OUT MULTI-YEAR HIGH THIS WEEK. ODD STUFF, OR IS IT?
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  • #169
  • Apr 19, 2014 12:26pm Apr 19, 2014 12:26pm
Quoting ruffryders
high probability trade setup on gbp jpy long at market open after holiday stop loss 60 points tp1 172.60 (+60) tp2 173.40 (+140) current bid 171.96
supplementary to the above i ran ssa trend cycle analysis on h4 gbp jpy. Targets on longs seem to be top range of 174.

see chart for projected price move on gbp jpy up next

very good risk/reward setup.
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  • #170
  • Apr 19, 2014 12:34pm Apr 19, 2014 12:34pm
my current positioning update. only trades i have active now is gbp usd long @ 6800 20 mln units (200 lots) structured via call options. As posted previously targeting 7000 7200 and 50% shot @ 7400 within 2-4 months from now on.

please note i don't have sl levels, since my trade is structured via call options.

if you want short term plan on gbp usd (weekly), here are the levels to watch on gbp usd (not pivots aside from mid level)


1.6920 tp4 and final tp for the next week
1.6880 tp3
1.6840 tp2 and add long if breaks
1.6810 tp1 and add long if breaks

1.6769 week pivot buy dips here

1.6731 buy dips here
  • #171
  • Apr 19, 2014 12:36pm Apr 19, 2014 12:36pm
Quoting ruffryders
my current positioning update. Only trades i have active now is gbp usd long @ 6800 20 mln units (200 lots) structured via call options. As posted previously targeting 7000 7200 and 50% shot @ 7400 within 2-4 months from now on. Please note i don't have sl levels, since my trade is structured via call options. If you want short term plan on gbp usd (weekly), here are the levels to watch on gbp usd (not pivots aside from mid level) 1.6920 tp4 and final tp for the next week 1.6880 tp3 1.6840 tp2 and add long if breaks 1.6810 tp1 and add long if breaks...
here's my positioning summary. Please note i did erase expiry dates on my statement, since i don't want to post this on public forums (i can post either strike or expiry date - can't post both!).
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  • #172
  • Apr 19, 2014 4:28pm Apr 19, 2014 4:28pm
Quoting ruffryders
CROWD PSYCHOLOGY ... http://www.ibtimes.com/eurusd-foreca...est-145-300000 ...
Hi R

Thanks for your posts. I always look forward to reading them. I have a link to counter the one you put up. it is

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...s-Slowing.html

as you know in this business the reason we have a market is because opinions differ. The dailyfx article says traders are net long the eur and gbp which could lead to a massive reversal. I dont know how this data of traders in forex is collected but it appears there is a lot of difference in the way it is collected/interpreted.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #173
  • Apr 20, 2014 1:21am Apr 20, 2014 1:21am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hi R Thanks for your posts. I always look forward to reading them. I have a link to counter the one you put up. it is http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...s-Slowing.html as you know in this business the reason we have a market is because opinions differ. The dailyfx article says traders are net long the eur and gbp which could lead to a massive reversal. I dont know how this data of traders in forex is collected but it appears there is...
Olu, thanks for the comment.

I don't look at FXCM data to gauge the retail positioning. I look at major liquidiy providers data as it is more representative.
(Saxo Bank, Interactive Brokers). Currently 76% SHORT 24% LONG on GU. EU 74% 25%. see below.

BTW, did you check the GBP crosses D1/W1 charts. Do you think they are bullish/bearish?
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  • #174
  • Edited 1:40am Apr 20, 2014 1:24am | Edited 1:40am
Anyhow, I already posted both technical and fundumental review on GBPUSD. Nobody ever bothers to check the yield, one of the primary drivers of the FX rates.

Here's the recap on the yields spread:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post7412768
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...70#post7410970
  • #175
  • Apr 20, 2014 1:32am Apr 20, 2014 1:32am
final chart today. Gbp usd ssa trend cycle extraction. Two upside targets currently - 7050 and 7170. 7170-7200 IS BY END OF JUNE 2014.
AND 7300-7400 I'M TARGETING END OF JULY 2014.
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  • #176
  • Apr 20, 2014 1:38am Apr 20, 2014 1:38am
Quoting ruffryders
final chart today. Gbp usd ssa trend cycle extraction. Two upside targets currently - 7050 and 7170. 7170-7200 is by end of june 2014. And 7300-7400 i'm targeting end of july 2014. {image}
here's the same on gbp jpy d1 chart. Targets are on the chart.
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  • #177
  • Apr 20, 2014 2:15am Apr 20, 2014 2:15am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hi R Thanks for your posts. I always look forward to reading them. I have a link to counter the one you put up. it is http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...s-Slowing.html as you know in this business the reason we have a market is because opinions differ. The dailyfx article says traders are net long the eur and gbp which could lead to a massive reversal. I dont know how this data of traders in forex is collected but it appears there is...
I agree with you on COT report on GBPUSD, it could indicate a potential reversal. Point taken.
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  • #178
  • Apr 20, 2014 2:21am Apr 20, 2014 2:21am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} i agree with you on cot report on gbpusd, it could indicate a potential reversal. Point taken. {image}
technically, gbp usd resistance turn support @ 6750-6775 key area. It still looks bullish, given that that price action is building a base to take on 6900-7000 in an upwards sloping channel. Price action is also building a sequence of higher highs, higher lows, which is bullish price action overall.
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  • #179
  • Apr 20, 2014 3:20am Apr 20, 2014 3:20am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} BTW, did you check the GBP crosses D1/W1 charts. Do you think they are bullish/bearish?
I checked out the weekly and monthly charts and They are bullish. The daily chart and below are showing some hesitation. And if traders jumped in because of this hesitation their stops, when taken out could be the catalyst to propelling the pound above 1.7000

The euro is a bit more muddled imho. The ECB is also trying to jawbone it down

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #180
  • Apr 20, 2014 11:14am Apr 20, 2014 11:14am
Quoting Olu
{quote} I checked out the weekly and monthly charts and They are bullish. The daily chart and below are showing some hesitation. And if traders jumped in because of this hesitation their stops, when taken out could be the catalyst to propelling the pound above 1.7000 The euro is a bit more muddled imho. The ECB is also trying to jawbone it down Olu
OLU, I also checked historical flips of COT commercial / large specs, and here's for instance a major flip back in 06-07, where commercial were big time short, specs LONG, and regular specs NET LONG/flat. The GU then posted a rally from 1.7400 to 2.0800 (1 400 points).

Here's the snapshot
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