Losing Streak: Is it because of strategy or bad luck? | Page 2 | Forex Factory

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Losing Streak: Is it because of strategy or bad luck?

  • #21
  • Apr 18, 2014 6:10pm Apr 18, 2014 6:10pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} There is no truth to the length of time past a calendar month that any system requires to prove merit. We don't know that the system failed. We only know that the trader didn't succeed. You are missing the relevant information because I think you are a moron and you are getting defensive. You don't have to be like that. I'm sure a lot of others think you are a moron as well...not like you are picking a fight with them in here.
i am pretty sure there are lot more others think that you are a troll, judging about how others have posted about you.

Quote
There is no truth to the length of time past a calendar month that any system requires to prove merit. We don't know that the system failed. We only know that the trader didn't succeed.

Firstly, if time is not used as a basis for determining success, what does? One time wonder system aka a "quickie"?
Secondly, you are assuming the trader didnt succeed.
Thirdly you are assuming the system didnt fail.

Second and third point are closely related. A trader failed because the system failed. But with all systems, there bound to be deviation point in which the system couldnt handle in a certain point of time before coming back to the mean. But OP has already stated that his system works by having 15 years of data to back it up. This could either mean two things: one time off event or system failed because back testing criteria didnt match real time.

And by saying there is no truth in my statement means i am lying! You could say that you dont believe, but by saying there is no truth implied there is falsehood in my statement and yet no basis to back it up in your original quote????

Frankly speaking, my main intention in forex forums in these years was never to troll but to make money. A check with my post history would reveal that i have not offended anyone simply because i choose not to, but posters like you have just made me feel like wearing my troll hat from now on.
  • #22
  • Apr 18, 2014 6:33pm Apr 18, 2014 6:33pm
Quoting pickers
{quote} i am pretty sure there are lot more others think that you are a troll, judging about how others have posted about you. {quote} Firstly, if time is not used as a basis for determining success, what does? One time wonder system aka a "quickie"? Secondly, you are assuming the trader didnt succeed. Thirdly you are assuming the system didnt fail. Second and third point are closely related. A trader failed because the system failed. But with all systems, there bound to be deviation point in which the system couldnt handle in a certain point of...
Here is another place where you don't have enough information to qualify your statement...but whatever...throw the troll word around, because I think you don't know what you are talking about and you feel like being all sensitive and emotional...

Firstly, the month on charts plays out very specifically to the week and where it falls in relation to the start and finish of said month. The only thing I assumed was that the op wasn't working on a monthly system, meaning that everything else can be contained within said month. A full calendar month is enough information to gauge any system for merit.

Secondly, I am not assuming the trader didn't succeed. That is effectively the topic of the thread. (Losing Streak) <-where do you take this to mean anything other than the fact that this trader is not currently successful in their efforts? There is no need to assume something that is plain in print, but again, because you haven't done the very basics of homework, ie reading the thread title, you cannot even offer this as an informed opinion.

Thirdly, I didn't assume that the system didn't fail. I don't know what the system is and very plainly stated, and read in your quote...We don't know that the system failed. We only know that the trader didn't succeed.

And by saying there is no truth to your statement, doesn't mean I called you a liar. I very plainly called you a moron. I can see through your couple of posts here that you are posting for the sake of posting and really don't bother with anything that resembles information...you know what that makes you?

A troll...

The fact that you actually have a troll hat is only further testimony.

I could be wrong here...not about you specifically, you are an easy read...but more so about the either failure of the system or the failure of the trader...but I'm probably dead on.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #23
  • Apr 18, 2014 7:37pm Apr 18, 2014 7:37pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Here is another place where you don't have enough information to qualify your statement...but whatever...throw the troll word around, because I think you don't know what you are talking about and you feel like being all sensitive and emotional... Firstly, the month on charts plays out very specifically to the week and where it falls in relation to the start and finish of said month. The only thing I assumed was that the op wasn't working on a monthly system, meaning that everything else can be contained within said month. A full calendar month is enough information to gauge any system for merit. Secondly, I am not assuming the trader didn't succeed. That is effectively the topic of the thread. (Losing Streak) <-where do you take this to mean anything other than the fact that this trader is not currently successful in their efforts? There is no need to assume something that is plain in print, but again, because you haven't done the very basics of homework, ie reading the thread title, you cannot even offer this as an informed opinion. Thirdly, I didn't assume that the system didn't fail. I don't know what the system is and very plainly stated, and read in your quote...We don't know that the system failed. We only know that the trader didn't succeed. And by saying there is no truth to your statement, doesn't mean I called you a liar. I very plainly called you a moron. I can see through your couple of posts here that you are posting for the sake of posting and really don't bother with anything that resembles information...you know what that makes you? A troll... The fact that you actually have a troll hat is only further testimony. I could be wrong here...not about you specifically, you are an easy read...but more so about the either failure of the system or the failure of the trader...but I'm probably dead on.



You can't call someone a moron just because you may know something they may not.

Half the the shit you just said is rubbish anyway... But I don't think you're a moron, just an a**hole on a power trip.

smoked ya

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oIqD-b9ri30
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #24
  • Apr 18, 2014 9:28pm Apr 18, 2014 9:28pm
double post
  • #25
  • Apr 18, 2014 9:31pm Apr 18, 2014 9:31pm
1[quote=PipPirates;7412850]Hi, This is my 1st thread, please be kind. In spite of following same strategy (Which provided profit earlier), now I get loosing streak for 2 months. Lucky you you found it early all system has upand down ,

I was wondering, is it because of my strategy or my bad luck? Strategy

My strategy has a wining rate of 50%, i get profit because, my R/R is large. if it is rael 50/50 you will end up millioner .

All expert professional trader are here, so i am looking an answer from you. All strategy has some wining rate, but when to understand, that the following strategy became obsolete? all strategy discreation , obsolid leads to fish tank

I know about the probability, as far as the sample size increase, probability decrease, then how to understand the ultimate probability of a trading system?
not propability BUT RISK increase . more winning then lossing depends of your personal reference not other trading you can adopt . look around you will find it

best whises .
  • #26
  • Apr 19, 2014 1:08am Apr 19, 2014 1:08am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Here is another place where you don't have enough information to qualify your statement...but whatever...throw the troll word around, because I think you don't know what you are talking about and you feel like being all sensitive and emotional... Firstly, the month on charts plays out very specifically to the week and where it falls in relation to the start and finish of said month. The only thing I assumed was that the op wasn't working on a monthly system, meaning that everything else can be contained within said month. A full calendar...
Newer traders often don't know what they don't know.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #27
  • Apr 19, 2014 8:16am Apr 19, 2014 8:16am
Quoting jmn5611
Newer traders often don't know what they don't know.
Not knowing, isn't a crime.

Speaking with authority on what you do not know, is of no benefit and in more cases than not, can be dangerous...

All's I was trying to do was to try and eliminate the spread of inaccurate information. That kinda shit runs rampant here!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #28
  • Apr 19, 2014 8:39am Apr 19, 2014 8:39am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Not knowing, isn't a crime. Speaking with authority on what you do not know, is of no benefit and in more cases than not, can be dangerous... All's I was trying to do was to try and eliminate the spread of inaccurate information. That kinda shit runs rampant here!
That's true, it does run rampant. Trading is like any other thing in life, if you tell the truth about it, you look like the bad guy. Still, it is fun to watch!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #29
  • Apr 19, 2014 10:49am Apr 19, 2014 10:49am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Here is another place where you don't have enough information to qualify your statement...but whatever...throw the troll word around, because I think you don't know what you are talking about and you feel like being all sensitive and emotional... Firstly, the month on charts plays out very specifically to the week and where it falls in relation to the start and finish of said month. The only thing I assumed was that the op wasn't working on a monthly system, meaning that everything else can be contained within said month. A full calendar...
System is not just entry and exit methodology. Is there anything that you dont understand from this statement?
Would OP make a comment about a longer timeframe trading but never gave it enough breadth? I would give the benefit of doubt to OP rather than a troll like you!

And by saying there is no truth in my statement means you know everything there is true about that statement, but what have you proved? Nothing! So who is the moron now? You didnt really provide anything for useful as well if you bothered reading and understanding what you have posted. Troll isnt just someone who post useless information cos a forum is from all likes to participate. A troll like you is someone who likes to derail a discussion or creating tension.

I am pretty sure your character here is the same as in life. Take a good look at your friends or relatives..... or the lack of.
  • #30
  • Apr 19, 2014 11:06am Apr 19, 2014 11:06am
Quoting pickers
So who is the moron now?
Still you.

What actual information have you provided?
None...

You are still on an emotional rant.

Get a grip, Champ.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #31
  • Apr 19, 2014 7:19pm Apr 19, 2014 7:19pm
Magix is still finding the mirror a difficult concept to fathom.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lRbhi_Jr27o
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #32
  • Apr 20, 2014 4:53pm Apr 20, 2014 4:53pm
Quoting PipPirates
Hi, This is my 1st thread, please be kind. In spite of following same strategy (Which provided profit earlier), now I get loosing streak for 2 months. I was wondering, is it because of my strategy or my bad luck? My strategy has a wining rate of 50%, i get profit because, my R/R is large. All expert professional trader are here, so i am looking an answer from you. All strategy has some wining rate, but when to understand, that the following strategy became obsolete? I know about the probability, as far as the sample size increase, probability decrease,...
@pippirates looking at your most traded ccy pair (or average if there's multiple); what is the spread given from your broker and your average stop-loss distance from entry?

I'm from the school of thought that the past cannot predict the future, no matter how many years of past is included. only forward testing
  • #33
  • Apr 22, 2014 1:49am Apr 22, 2014 1:49am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I think your question is incomplete. There is the possibility that the trading strategy has failed, and the possibility that you are having a run of bad luck (which is a catch all phrase that means you have no idea what is happening to you). More likely, however, is a third option, which is a failure in the trader (you), that has not been properly diagnosed. No one here can answer your question because none of us know anything about you nor what you are doing. Sit down and analyze what you are doing and what is going wrong with your trading....
I agree with what you have said. There are some fault in me as trader but also there are some bad luck involves too. During the period most of the trades get stopped out just for 1-2 pips. Sometimes my TP doesn't catch because of 1-2 pips. If my target is at 20, it reaches 18 & turned around. If its ten it reaches 9 & then stopped out. I know its nothing new in this profession. But if its continues more than expectation, then that really hurts. But anyway thank you for your response.
Discussion is an exchange of knowledge;argument is an exchange of ignorance
  • #34
  • Apr 22, 2014 1:50am Apr 22, 2014 1:50am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} @pippirates looking at your most traded ccy pair (or average if there's multiple); what is the spread given from your broker and your average stop-loss distance from entry? I'm from the school of thought that the past cannot predict the future, no matter how many years of past is included. only forward testing
My broker is ECN broker, very less spread. Average stops are 10-15 pips.
Discussion is an exchange of knowledge;argument is an exchange of ignorance
  • #35
  • Apr 22, 2014 1:53am Apr 22, 2014 1:53am
Quoting Wolf_Wicked
If you explain to me your system in detail I could suggest to you why it may have failed.
Basic breakout or bounce trades on support/resistance.
Discussion is an exchange of knowledge;argument is an exchange of ignorance
  • #36
  • Apr 22, 2014 2:05am Apr 22, 2014 2:05am
Quoting Carlsberg
can you say which markets your trading? i had a quick look at your profile and it says the Euro and Metals for starters the Euro has been pants for the last 6 months at least (compared to some others) with too much chop and over manipulation, other pairs are trading better - so would possibly drop the Euro for now if its the problem the beginning of yrs are nt always as we would like, ive always put this down to the MMs trying to psych everyone out at the start of the yr and then put them on the back foot, but this yr seems to of gone on longer...
I agree with your point. But if a system shows wining rate on 15 years of data. Then i think i have a floor to keep faith on it. But as you said, market changes, choosing higher probability trades, so, I will re think about it.
Discussion is an exchange of knowledge;argument is an exchange of ignorance
  • #37
  • Apr 22, 2014 2:07am Apr 22, 2014 2:07am
Quoting Wolf_Wicked
{quote} I think Wolf thumbs up: I will imitate enroutes baseless post.. Oh yeah hey man, you may have noticed my red flag flying up there next to my name.. Oh dear,,, It sounds like you are a trading loser??? omg... you loser omg.. Now let me just be clear that I am not claiming to be a winner, omg you loser omg.. Further to this point do you have a trading plan little man?? Cause I do.. Does your trading plan tell you to go and have a losing streak? Cause you asked me what could this all be about and I'm telling you that it is definitely not my...
+1
Discussion is an exchange of knowledge;argument is an exchange of ignorance
  • #38
  • Apr 22, 2014 2:20am Apr 22, 2014 2:20am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Not knowing, isn't a crime. Speaking with authority on what you do not know, is of no benefit and in more cases than not, can be dangerous... All's I was trying to do was to try and eliminate the spread of inaccurate information. That kinda shit runs rampant here!
+1
Discussion is an exchange of knowledge;argument is an exchange of ignorance
  • #39
  • Apr 22, 2014 2:31am Apr 22, 2014 2:31am
Quoting PipPirates
{quote} +1
+2
GBP/USD
  • #40
  • Apr 22, 2014 3:20am Apr 22, 2014 3:20am
Quoting PipPirates
{quote} My broker is ECN broker, very less spread. Average stops are 10-15 pips.
Oh, ok. Still need to be accurate on the intraday chart with that tight of stops. If you're experiencing early draw-down, Id say loose stops/lower lot size. But if that's not it, you just gotta work through this, don't force it.
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