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GBP/USD outlook

  • #1,081
  • Mar 27, 2014 8:33pm Mar 27, 2014 8:33pm
Maybe just a little higher to complete the retest before heading down to 6340 intermediate target (common 50 and 23.6 fibs),
then (maybe) a rocky trip down to 6050 area (common 76.4/38.2 fib) and retest of that broken almighty multi year TL.
For conservative traders, if we get down to 6050 area, perhaps wait for institutional advice to sell rallies (no doubt based on bogus outlooks such as "sooner than expected US interest rate hikes"), before loading longs

For shorts next week, perhaps wait for confirmation from JPM et al that we are heading north on some kind of Fkced up tech bullish breakout interpretation around the 6670 area just as we are retesting the weekly bearish breakout , before you decide to look for PA clues to load short .

Just my view, have a great weekend everyone....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdweekly.png Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdweekly1.png Size: 37 KB
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  • #1,082
  • Apr 5, 2014 7:18am Apr 5, 2014 7:18am
Ok, time for my weekly Euro Toss.

4hr chart, the 2nd 171 pip down leg terminates around 3651, so have imposed fibs from there and really like how the 50 and 61.8 retrace correlate with PA resistance levels,

the magic of Forex uh....

Plan, looking for a Monday breakdown to take out Fridays low by a few pips, before thinking of going long if PA shows rejection from 3651 area.

Targetting the lower breakout line retest which I anticipate will be the 50 fib at 1.3809.

Have attached daily chart to show the black TL break and retest that has occurred. I know it looks like a cluster FK but those lines are weekly lines, so they make sense on the weekly . We are currently sitting on the 100sma on this TF with the 4hr sma above sitting smack on my long target of 1.3809 (round it down to 1.38) .

Attached weekly charts to show the bigger picture of the Euros history of line breaks and retests.

3651??

enjoy....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh41.png Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily.png Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdweekly.png Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdweekly2.png Size: 35 KB
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  • #1,083
  • Apr 12, 2014 11:46am Apr 12, 2014 11:46am
Hey I ll be back. Remember the DOW/SP500 talk we had? It overshoot a bit but fell all right. However check this out, Buffett's words being twisted with a hammer​ and spread all over by CNN Money: http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNewsIntl...edium=referral. When you see this kind of crap being fed to the masses you know they're gathering the sheep for the slaughter. Indexes should go higher.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #1,084
  • Apr 13, 2014 5:52am Apr 13, 2014 5:52am
Quoting vox dei
Hey I ll be back. Remember the DOW/SP500 talk we had? It overshoot a bit but fell all right. However check this out, Buffett's words being twisted with a hammer​ and spread all over by CNN Money: http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNewsIntl...edium=referral. When you see this kind of crap being fed to the masses you know they're gathering the sheep for the slaughter. Indexes should go higher.
Hi Vox, yes, I remember it well
Here's my take on the sp500.
In context, I agree we are in a massive bubble, but if investors are sucked into a 50% sell off from here, I think they will be disappointed.

Having said that, I do think the SP500 has topped out but would be very surprised if it drops much below 1550, as that is some pretty darn solid support. It is also only a smidge over 25% drop from 2009 lows. Another healthy correction, but no crash.

From there?

Yeah, I'm thinking a new high (just a few months after the "THIS IS THE BIG ONE - SELL EVERY RALLY" War Cry comes blaring out of WallStreet and every MSM outlet across the country)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sp500monthly1.png Size: 34 KB
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  • #1,085
  • Apr 19, 2014 3:08am Apr 19, 2014 3:08am
Kiwi looks like a good sell on a pullback
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusddaily.png Size: 34 KB
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  • #1,086
  • Apr 19, 2014 3:18am Apr 19, 2014 3:18am
Hey brother,

thought I'd pop in and bug your space a bit. You still holding your GU shorts?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,087
  • Apr 19, 2014 3:20am Apr 19, 2014 3:20am
Cable is interesting.
On the monthly, we now have a clean retest of both ascending segments.
looking at the weekly for more segment detail, it looks to me like we could get a breaking wave down to retest the breakout at 1.65 support.
If that happens, I'll be very interested to see if we get another leg up to 6890 area for the last segment retest before a much more significant retrace.

Looking at the daily RSI, it is well overdone,divergences everywhere and is rolling over.

time will tell...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdmonthly2.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdmonthly1.png Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdweekly.png Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusddaily.png Size: 28 KB
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  • #1,088
  • Apr 19, 2014 3:28am Apr 19, 2014 3:28am
Quoting albchr
Hey brother, thought I'd pop in and bug your space a bit. You still holding your GU shorts?
Hey brother, no man, But I get the feeling I should have

My creative side is thinking now that we have taken out the high, lets swing down, take out the 6465 low, then take out the high again to 6890ish, before dumping.

It could be a massacre for breakout traders.

been reading some bullish AND bearish breakout trade reco options from the banks for this pair lately also which only raises my suspicions further
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #1,089
  • Apr 19, 2014 3:43am Apr 19, 2014 3:43am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Hey brother, no man, But I get the feeling I should have My creative side is thinking now that we have taken out the high, lets swing down, take out the 6465 low, then take out the high again to 6890ish, before dumping. It could be a massacre for breakout traders. been reading some bullish AND bearish breakout trade reco options from the banks for this pair lately also which only raises my suspicions further
It's a tough mix right now to pick any position to "hold" for any length of time for sure. If it is to turn from the bull run, this is a likely spot but we really need to see some confirmation. If intraday, plenty of opportunity both ways me thinks. Weekly strong like bull, daily a nice bearish close under a strong SR.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,090
  • Apr 19, 2014 4:07am Apr 19, 2014 4:07am
Quoting albchr
{quote} It's a tough mix right now to pick any position to "hold" for any length of time for sure. If it is to turn from the bull run, this is a likely spot but we really need to see some confirmation. If intraday, plenty of opportunity both ways me thinks. Weekly strong like bull, daily a nice bearish close under a strong SR.
Hi mate, sorry just had to bath the kid.

Yep, I think she is squeezing the shorts for all she's worth which was my view the other week, but I just don't think she will progress to more significant resistances at 1.7xx with a significant retrace first.

I think I might just stick around in here for a few weeks, the open forums are good for telling everyone what you think, but I'm just not too good with others who think differently

have a great weekend my friend
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  • #1,091
  • Apr 19, 2014 4:16am Apr 19, 2014 4:16am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Hi mate, sorry just had to bath the kid. Yep, I think she is squeezing the shorts for all she's worth which was my view the other week, but I just don't think she will progress to more significant resistances at 1.7xx with a significant retrace first. I think I might just stick around in here for a few weeks, the open forums are good for telling everyone what you think, but I'm just not too good with others who think differently have a great weekend my friend
I hear you mate. It's why I stick to my humble little corner and seldom offer my "thoughts" anywhere else. Too much...ummmm...chest pounding and anger out there in the wilderness....

I'm about to post my GU thoughts/charts in my corner. As always, you are welcome to have a look and post yours.

Happy Easter buddy and God bless you and yours.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,092
  • Apr 19, 2014 4:26am Apr 19, 2014 4:26am
Quoting albchr
{quote} I hear you mate. It's why I stick to my humble little corner and seldom offer my "thoughts" anywhere else. Too much...ummmm...chest pounding and anger out there in the wilderness.... I'm about to post my GU thoughts/charts in my corner. As always, you are welcome to have a look and post yours. Happy Easter buddy and God bless you and yours.
Alright Chris, will do.
Thanks mate, have a great Easter
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  • #1,093
  • Apr 20, 2014 4:39am Apr 20, 2014 4:39am
Completely forgot about this little number.
Euro could be good for a few bucks short
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh4.png Size: 31 KB
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  • #1,094
  • Apr 20, 2014 4:57am Apr 20, 2014 4:57am
And I'm pretty sure I will be shorting Cable next week with 2 targets in mind
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh4.png Size: 31 KB
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  • #1,095
  • Apr 20, 2014 7:09am Apr 20, 2014 7:09am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Kiwi looks like a good sell on a pullback {image} {image}
Hello, I'm loving your GBPUSD analysis. But for Kiwi, I'm not sure if it counts (I have similar bearish divergence as you on my CCI) but the last 2 troughs seem to have a bullish divergence. As shown in attached. What do you think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #1,096
  • Apr 20, 2014 3:06pm Apr 20, 2014 3:06pm
Quoting aeternum
{quote} Hello, I'm loving your GBPUSD analysis. But for Kiwi, I'm not sure if it counts (I have similar bearish divergence as you on my CCI) but the last 2 troughs seem to have a bullish divergence. As shown in attached. What do you think? {image}
Hi Aeternum you could be right, I rarely look beyond GBPUSD for my trades but am toying with a mechanical method that popped up on the Euro.
We are still sitting on some support with both Euro and Kiwi so we'll have to see. I may not even trade the Kiwi one.
Cheers,
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  • #1,097
  • Apr 20, 2014 4:09pm Apr 20, 2014 4:09pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
And I'm pretty sure I will be shorting Cable next week with 2 targets in mind {image}
Hmmm, gap up, might leave this one.
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  • #1,098
  • Apr 20, 2014 9:18pm Apr 20, 2014 9:18pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Hi Aeternum you could be right, I rarely look beyond GBPUSD for my trades but am toying with a mechanical method that popped up on the Euro. We are still sitting on some support with both Euro and Kiwi so we'll have to see. I may not even trade the Kiwi one. Cheers,
Sounds good. I'm taking the CCI oversold condition for a ride though.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #1,099
  • Apr 20, 2014 10:52pm Apr 20, 2014 10:52pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Hmmm, gap up, might leave this one.
I just wonder if we Will go to 6685 this week.
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  • #1,100
  • Apr 20, 2014 10:53pm Apr 20, 2014 10:53pm
Quoting aeternum
{quote} Sounds good. I'm taking the CCI oversold condition for a ride though.
Hope it works out for you.
Looking for a cable set up.
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