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vsa with Malcolm

  • #25,401
  • Apr 17, 2014 1:34am Apr 17, 2014 1:34am
Pres 78 this is euro/aud...i picked late evening yesterday.... what do you think about it..........
that was the second buy..in a day...........i could not pick the sell as i was not at home. I will like to ask if there are other readings or book that you know which is good for a deep understanding of price structure and market dynamics that you know......
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  • #25,402
  • Apr 17, 2014 2:43am Apr 17, 2014 2:43am
Quoting pres78
If on a day you have two bars that are both UHV and close to each other in the amount of volume you can pick one or the other, add a fib to both covering the overall H to L.
Here's a really nice example of this on UCHF.
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  • #25,403
  • Apr 17, 2014 2:49am Apr 17, 2014 2:49am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Now Liam are you saying my recent posts have not been detailed enough I think I have said lots considering I said I was done posting to a basically dead forum.
No mate! I was saying that your posts in the past had even more details due to the fact you used to go into your entries. You've been there and done that and it's all there for people to see if they want to.

Good points about VSA being discretionary. I think this has also been the problem for me in the past. Getting too bogged down identifying and looking for the perfect bar instead of trying to take in the whole picture and the overall aim of the SM.
  • #25,404
  • Apr 17, 2014 8:16am Apr 17, 2014 8:16am
Quoting KinsaleForex
{quote} No mate! I was saying that your posts in the past had even more details due to the fact you used to go into your entries. You've been there and done that and it's all there for people to see if they want to. Good points about VSA being discretionary. I think this has also been the problem for me in the past. Getting too bogged down identifying and looking for the perfect bar instead of trying to take in the whole picture and the overall aim of the SM.

may i ask at what particular page did pres78 start with VZA............has i want to dig into it..............thanks in advance................
  • #25,405
  • Apr 17, 2014 9:06am Apr 17, 2014 9:06am
. If you have spent anytime studying R:R and differing risk models (such as % versus fixed) you know that you can be long term profitable on a lower win rate if your winners attain better than 1:1 risk reward. The better the average R:R you can achieve on your winners the lower the win rate needed to still be profitable and reduce your risk of busting out. Back to my point (I tend to start typing and get off topic)...


hwere you refering to VZA here..........or just talking about R:R......
  • #25,406
  • Apr 17, 2014 9:49am Apr 17, 2014 9:49am
Quoting carbonado
. If you have spent anytime studying R:R and differing risk models (such as % versus fixed) you know that you can be long term profitable on a lower win rate if your winners attain better than 1:1 risk reward. The better the average R:R you can achieve on your winners the lower the win rate needed to still be profitable and reduce your risk of busting out. Back to my point (I tend to start typing and get off topic)... hwere you refering to VZA here..........or just talking about R:R......
Trading in general.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,407
  • Apr 17, 2014 2:03pm Apr 17, 2014 2:03pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
{quote} No mate! I was saying that your posts in the past had even more details due to the fact you used to go into your entries. You've been there and done that and it's all there for people to see if they want to. Good points about VSA being discretionary. I think this has also been the problem for me in the past. Getting too bogged down identifying and looking for the perfect bar instead of trying to take in the whole picture and the overall aim of the SM.
Just messing with you Liam I knew what you mean't. I have been trying to be a bit more general in my posts as of late so as not to get bogged down with the finer details of trade taking. True enough though if people are willing to dig through my posts I have showed entries both after the fact and live so there is a nice mix for anyone that wants to find them. VSA is great don't get me wrong as finding it was the key turning point for my trading and has lead to my current trading methods. It all started with VSA. I struggled with all the same questions as many here do in that my charts volume didn't look the same as someone with a sierra feed or a different broker. That trade example HG posted had a great ND, perfect in fact but on my broker it was not. I work fulltime so wanted to trade 4 hour charts but again I couldn't compare to anyone else because my 4 hour bars were different based on server times. I conciously made a decision to learn as much as I could from others and then learn from myself by posting my own charts based on what I saw on them regardless of how my chart different from yours or Steve's or Malc's.

VZA is no different all you can do is identify the UHV zones even if they are different from mine. You can only trade what you brokers chart is saying and nothing else. Again if you have a good (again used loosely) broker with a deep liqutity pool feeding from many sources then your charts and volume readings should be damn close to even the best of the paid for feeds.

As for entries you are right Liam. Many times people become too bogged down on finding the perfect ND or NS or test etc... and lose sight of what is staring them right in the face. Some of the best entries I trade are increasing volume bars, not the decreasing ones. While a nice low volume test into demand is great I am now more of the position that I would rather see increasing activity to enter and not a lack of it.

Think about it for a minute if you will... Long entries two very different scenarios and which one sounds better to you?

  1. Going long after a low volume test bar showed you there were no sellers at a demand zone upon a return to the zone after seeing buying activity from that zone
  2. Going long because a high volume test bar showed you that someone (hopefully SM) were again actively buying at a demand zone from which we had seen previous buying activity from that zone

This is how my thinking has changed over time and as I continued my studies. I am now of the position that want to be active when I see activity and not a lack of it. Do I still trade low volume entries? Yes I do but they are no longer my go to trade.

Take a look back at Malc's charts and tell me when you find one that is a low volume, perfect as we are taught ND, NS or test. I used to get so confused looking at his charts because I could not see the picture perfect VSA that I was reading about. Now looking back it all makes sense. He was trading when the SM were active, not when there was no activity (I may be way off on this but that is how I see his charts now with a new set of eyes).

If you take some time to expand your thinking about what the VSA bars really mean and how this can be good (at the right location with the right background) and can also be misleading (at the wrong location or even at the right location with the wrong background or at the wrong time) you will clear your mind and start to see PA in a whole new light and enrties on low and high volume will start to become more clear.

Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,408
  • Apr 18, 2014 12:28am Apr 18, 2014 12:28am
Quoting carbonado
{quote} first..how do you pick the zones...........when do yo know a zones is not valid again..........and what if price does not reach another UHV zone before it changes direction..................
i have not studied market profile fully yet. but just slightly touched it. James dalton talks about structure , poor structure and repairing of structure..i think if market makes or leave a poor structure then with combinations of zones may be we can predict which zone is most likely to be next target.. i am still not good on VSA and Market Profile but all that which is in my mind . and all of you better know only Mr Pres78 can give the better suggestion on this. sorry to mention Pres78 already answered it.
Think Twice Low Volume is Key to Success
  • #25,409
  • Apr 18, 2014 4:29am Apr 18, 2014 4:29am
Take a look back at Malc's charts and tell me when you find one that is a low volume, perfect as we are taught ND, NS or test. I used to get so confused looking at his charts because I could not see the picture perfect VSA that I was reading about. Now looking back it all makes sense. He was trading when the SM were active, not when there was no activity (I may be way off on this but that is how I see his charts now with a new set of eyes).


I have lately begin to think in this direction........................
  • #25,410
  • Apr 18, 2014 6:14am Apr 18, 2014 6:14am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Trading in general.
hello pres78..i want to ask if i want to use the short charts...like 15 mins...for picking UHVB....that is vza...those it still make a good way of picking the zones....i am asking because i believe you have done alot of work on VZA....and would be able to tell which time frame is best to pick the zones..........maybe 1hr.or any time frame....thanks in advance..............
  • #25,411
  • Apr 18, 2014 8:42am Apr 18, 2014 8:42am
Quoting carbonado
{quote} hello pres78..i want to ask if i want to use the short charts...like 15 mins...for picking UHVB....that is vza...those it still make a good way of picking the zones....i am asking because i believe you have done alot of work on VZA....and would be able to tell which time frame is best to pick the zones..........maybe 1hr.or any time frame....thanks in advance..............
Any TF works and has it advantages. 4hour zones are usually wide enough to trade inside while 5min zones are smaller so really only good from trading from the high and low. One of my favorites is to put on 4hr and 1hr zones and take 5min entries both into the high and low but also trading inside the zone from the low to 50% to high etc...

You have to decide what type of trader are you. Scalper, intraday, swing trader etc... Then build the plan around this. Perhaps you will find out you are like me and depending on how much screen times you can put in you may trade a mixture.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,412
  • Apr 18, 2014 9:22am Apr 18, 2014 9:22am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Any TF works and has it advantages. 4hour zones are usually wide enough to trade inside while 5min zones are smaller so really only good from trading from the high and low. One of my favorites is to put on 4hr and 1hr zones and take 5min entries both into the high and low but also trading inside the zone from the low to 50% to high etc... You have to decide what type of trader are you. Scalper, intraday, swing trader etc... Then build the plan around this. Perhaps you will find out you are like me and depending on how much screen times you...

thanks for the response......you sound like you trade inside the zone..i thought it was suppose to be from zone to zone..............
  • #25,413
  • Apr 18, 2014 1:01pm Apr 18, 2014 1:01pm
Quoting carbonado
{quote} thanks for the response......you sound like you trade inside the zone..i thought it was suppose to be from zone to zone..............
I never once said it was only zone to zone.

I trade wherever the trades are. Inside of a 4 hr zone or from zone to zone... If you trade 5 min zones only than inside the zone is too small. If I have a 100 pip 4 hour zone and I get a set-up into the zone low for a buy then for sure I will go long to at least 50%. I have many set-ups for inside the zones, outside the zones and for entries as price enters back into a zone. It all depends on how big the zone is. UHV WRB's make the best zones because they give many different trading opportunities.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,414
  • Apr 18, 2014 10:52pm Apr 18, 2014 10:52pm
Hey Pres!

One of the things I have always liked about WRB Zones is that a zone remains open until certain conditions are met. For example, I like to close a WRB zone after there is price action above and below the zone. More specifically, a full candle body above and a full candle body below. Unless the candle in question is directly involved in the entry signal pattern. How do you know when a Zone is no longer "Good"?

This is one of the things I never liked about "trigger numbers". I never knew how long a particular trigger was valid. If they continue to be valid , a chart can get pretty messy with nothing but "trigger numbers". Seems like the same thing could happen here. Do you still have 4 hours zones on your chart from 6 months ago? If I was to have a WRB S/D Zone on my chart from 6 months ago, I would know 1 of 2 things must be true.

1. After the creation of the zone, price has moved away from the zone and not returned.
2. After the creation of the zone, price has moved back into the zone at least once, did not traverse all the way through the zone.

Also, are you taking any trade within a zone? Or, do you distinguish between long trades in Demand Zones and short trades in Supply Zones?

Thanks.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #25,415
  • Apr 19, 2014 12:28am Apr 19, 2014 12:28am
Quoting HiddenGap
Hey Pres! One of the things I have always liked about WRB Zones is that a zone remains open until certain conditions are met. For example, I like to close a WRB zone after there is price action above and below the zone. More specifically, a full candle body above and a full candle body below. Unless the candle in question is directly involved in the entry signal pattern. How do you know when a Zone is no longer "Good"? This is one of the things I never liked about "trigger numbers". I never knew how long a particular trigger was valid. If they continue...

Hi, Master, HiddenGap, my friend.
Hi, fellow-traders.

You are right as always.

Taking Master's words into consideration, I can point at EURUSD market needs to close the last 4H hidden gap (WRB) at the level of 3835-3845 at least.

However, one thing is not dissolved - the REAL gap is from 3865-3880. This fact can add its 2 cents into the analysis - the price could go even higher up to 3855 for the start point at least.
Hunting High and Low
  • #25,416
  • Apr 19, 2014 4:47pm Apr 19, 2014 4:47pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Hey Pres! One of the things I have always liked about WRB Zones is that a zone remains open until certain conditions are met. For example, I like to close a WRB zone after there is price action above and below the zone. More specifically, a full candle body above and a full candle body below. Unless the candle in question is directly involved in the entry signal pattern. How do you know when a Zone is no longer "Good"? This is one of the things I never liked about "trigger numbers". I never knew how long a particular trigger was valid. If they continue...
Hey HG my friend...

I am not trading WRB's in the sense that you trade them. I have studied that a bit and have a rough understanding of it but this is WRB zones from H to L and based on UHV. I do not consider a zone void when it fills, I consider a zone void when SM are no longer active in the zone or when the zone is replaced by a new zone. Messy, nope not really. Each zone is 3 levels a H, 50% and L. If a newer higher volume zone prints in the same area I remove the old zone. I manage my zones and levels to keep things neat and tidy and to make things the most trade-able.

Do I still have a 4 hour zone on from 6 months ago? Quite well could have if it hasn't been replaced / voided and I can almost guarantee that when price returns to that action zone 6 months later there will be reactions (or a news driven WRB blow through making a new zone).

Yes any trade can be taken within a zone for basic VZA. If I see sellers at the high of a UHV zone I will go short back down to at least 50%.

I do also trade S&D zones and I find that the UHV zones often align with these and this can play a factor in my trading decisions. Again though if I see sellers at the high of even a "demand" zone I will go short if I have room back down to the next clear buying level. 4 hour WRB UHV zones give the room to do this. Grab some pips short and then get back in long when the SM start buying again at lower prices.

Supply and demand and how this is viewed within VSA really confuses me now as I have grown and continued my studies in other trading subjects. A test bar for example is "testing" for sellers. Who is selling at these lower prices that are being "tested". Are the SM selling at prices lower than current price? I don't think SM are making any money by selling at lower prices so who are they testing for to see if they are selling? The theory is they are testing and if no sellers are found price is free to go up. That is also backwards thinking because sell orders under current price are not an obstacle for rising prices, sell orders higher up are.

Anyway HG I hope that answered your questions.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,417
  • Edited 7:46pm Apr 19, 2014 5:47pm | Edited 7:46pm
"Every time I think I'm out, Pres78 or KinsaleForex says something brilliant and pull me back in".

Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Hi, Master, HiddenGap, my friend. Hi, fellow-traders. You are right as always. Taking Master's words into consideration, I can point at EURUSD market needs to close the last 4H hidden gap (WRB) at the level of 3835-3845 at least. However, one thing is not dissolved - the REAL gap is from 3865-3880. This fact can add its 2 cents into the analysis - the price could go even higher up to 3855 for the start point at least.
"The market has a way of always keeping you humble."

Dr.Phoenix,

I have attached a 60 min Euro chart . I was looking for 1 of 3 things to happen. Of those 3, the one I really wanted to see was the "gap down" ShakeOut. We got the gap down part at least.

Had I been looking at this chart, I would have had an entirely different interpretation. As you can see, we started the week in a Supply Zone. That does not mean the market can't go up, but rather the higher probability trades to look for are shorts. Put another way, only look for short trade signals in a Supply Zone and only look for long trade signals in a Demand Zone.

I normally don't overlap zones or put zone inside one another, but this time we have a Supply Zone created by an actual Gap in a very wide Supply Zone created by a Hidden Gap. So we have a very strong area in which to look for short signal patterns. There was a short trade set-up. But that's not the point of this post. While the gap will eventually be filled, the better play just may be to look for opportunities to go short when price goes back into the gap. Note that I did not say short anytime price enters the gap, I said look for trade opportunities (short signal patters-VSA or otherwise) when price enters the zone.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #25,418
  • Apr 20, 2014 8:34am Apr 20, 2014 8:34am
Quoting HiddenGap
"Every time I think I'm out, Pres78 or KinsaleForex says something brilliant and pull me back in". {quote} "The market has a way of always keeping you humble." Dr.Phoenix, I have attached a 60 min Euro chart . I was looking for 1 of 3 things to happen. Of those 3, the one I really wanted to see was the "gap down" ShakeOut. We got the gap down part at least. Had I been looking at this chart, I would have had an entirely different interpretation. As you can see, we started the week in a Supply Zone. That does not mean the market can't go up, but rather...
Hi, HiddenGap,

I assume the market is completely bearish - the 1H bars are higher, the volumes are lower. It is difficult for prices to overcome the yellow S/D zone - for this point of view look at the picture of the EURUSD monthly chart. As you can see we abut to the downtrend line. Of course we can go higher but it is rather difficult to do - I personally think it is hardly possible (...interesting enough then).

On the other hand, the blue S/D Delta zone can give us a bounch of prices for the purposes to close the upper violet 3835-3845 hidden gap zone.

To resume, I see the following. The prices go lower to the 3780-3790 area, then go higher for closing the hidden gap, then go lower to assult the green S/D zone. These thoughts are valid, if the market open happens with no gap down.

We shall see.
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Hunting High and Low
  • #25,419
  • Apr 20, 2014 9:04pm Apr 20, 2014 9:04pm
before
Quoting Pipocrates
Posting a little analysis on the USDJPY {image}
after
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I dig vsa why isnt their a dedicated trading system thread?
  • #25,420
  • Apr 21, 2014 10:29am Apr 21, 2014 10:29am
This really isn't a quiz, so much as a query.

You've already established that there is a Supply/Demand Delta Zone in this area of the cart using some rule-based criteria. You don't have to concern yourself with predictions to impress the nameless and faceless many on the internet. You are reactive, not predictive in mind-set. It's all about seeing what you want to see, where you want to see it.

So price moves into the where. The question becomes, what do you want to see?

Do you see a short entry signal? Is it a single interval or a series of intervals that create a pattern?

I've marked a Start Point. However, that does not need to be the place where your answer starts. But we should all agree that a wide spread up interval on ultra high volume into the Zone, should get our attention. Some would say, that is the start of the distribution phase.

Note that the intervals are labeled with caps and the corresponding volume is labeled with a small letter. This is so you can refer to either the volume or the interval itself in an easily distinguishable way.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
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