Losing Streak: Is it because of strategy or bad luck? | Forex Factory

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Losing Streak: Is it because of strategy or bad luck?

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 17, 2014 4:13am Apr 17, 2014 4:13am
Hi,
This is my 1st thread, please be kind.

In spite of following same strategy (Which provided profit earlier), now I get loosing streak for 2 months. I was wondering, is it because of my strategy or my bad luck? My strategy has a wining rate of 50%, i get profit because, my R/R is large.

All expert professional trader are here, so i am looking an answer from you.

All strategy has some wining rate, but when to understand, that the following strategy became obsolete?

I know about the probability, as far as the sample size increase, probability decrease, then how to understand the ultimate probability of a trading system?

Thank you
Regards
Discussion is an exchange of knowledge;argument is an exchange of ignorance
  • #2
  • Apr 17, 2014 5:48pm Apr 17, 2014 5:48pm
The market is constantly chamging the way it seeks out S/R. Just beware of that. The umderlying logic remains the same, but the source changes. You would need to get down to the individual candles to see that.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #3
  • Apr 17, 2014 6:14pm Apr 17, 2014 6:14pm
Quoting PipPirates
Hi, This is my 1st thread, please be kind. In spite of following same strategy (Which provided profit earlier), now I get loosing streak for 2 months. I was wondering, is it because of my strategy or my bad luck? My strategy has a wining rate of 50%, i get profit because, my R/R is large. All expert professional trader are here, so i am looking an answer from you. All strategy has some wining rate, but when to understand, that the following strategy became obsolete? I know about the probability, as far as the sample size increase, probability decrease,...

I wouldn't say that the system has necessarily failed, but I would believe that your confidence towards trades may have changed.

If you follow static rules and those rules typically produce a greater set of winners for range than losers for the same range, we call that success.

Shooting for 100% wins isn't realistic...but neither is 100% losses.

100% losers come from a lack of confidence in that with your losses piling up, your panic level changes with each time you enter a trade. Ya get that prickly armpit feeling...ya start to doubt your position...and instead of waiting for the rules of your system to prevail, you exit...

I don't know this to be the ABSOLUTE in your situation, but I have seen it enough times to call it a very common problem with people new to the market.

Personally...I would shoot for a higher win rate and perhaps moving back to a demo scenario until you have regained your confidence. Repetition is the mother of knowledge and when you can see that what you do produces prosperity without risk, you will be able to carry this same attribute back into a live money trade situation.

My dos centavos...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #4
  • Apr 17, 2014 7:57pm Apr 17, 2014 7:57pm
Winning streak of 50% based on what? Based on 6 months of data or > 2 years of data?

If you have more than > 2 years of data to back this fact then probably this is a one time off event. If about 6 months, then do reconsider fine tuning your winning ratio to have a better expectation.
  • #5
  • Apr 17, 2014 8:01pm Apr 17, 2014 8:01pm
Quoting pickers
Winning streak of 50% based on what? Based on 6 months of data or > 2 years of data? If you have more than > 2 years of data to back this fact then probably this is a one time off event. If about 6 months, then do reconsider fine tuning your winning ratio to have a better expectation.

There is actually no truth to this statement.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #6
  • Apr 17, 2014 8:26pm Apr 17, 2014 8:26pm
Quoting PipPirates
Hi, This is my 1st thread, please be kind. In spite of following same strategy (Which provided profit earlier), now I get loosing streak for 2 months. I was wondering, is it because of my strategy or my bad luck? My strategy has a wining rate of 50%, i get profit because, my R/R is large. All expert professional trader are here, so i am looking an answer from you. All strategy has some wining rate, but when to understand, that the following strategy became obsolete? I know about the probability, as far as the sample size increase, probability decrease,...
It’s always a difficult situation.

The best approach IMO would be to review all the backtested charts when the strategy was profitable, and compare it to the current charts when the strategy is not profitable.

If the basic setups are still working, and you’re just getting stopped out by 1-2 pips, or missing your tp by 1-2 pips, then it’s probably just bad luck.

But if the basic entry setups are failing more consistently and barely getting into profit, you’ll need to dig a bit deeper and backtest a bit further.

Somtimes you get unusual moves on pairs in a specific time that last a few months, that then disappear e.g a few weeks before a BOJ announcement. So if your strategy was backtested during those times, it might not work once the event passes. That’s why it’s important to backtest at least 12-24 months. That will at least stress-test your strategy against a variety of market conditions.

Even when your strategy is working, you have to continue to work hard studying charts so you can anticipate changes and look for new opportunities, because price action is always changing.
  • #7
  • Apr 17, 2014 8:40pm Apr 17, 2014 8:40pm
Quoting SM02
Even when your strategy is working, you have to continue to work hard studying charts so you can anticipate changes and look for new opportunities, because price action is always changing.
No it doesn't.

The range changes, the action is still the same.

And this theory, really doesn't take into account the idea behind the weeks that range and the weeks the run.

Do people who post here have charts?

Or are these random guesses?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #8
  • Apr 17, 2014 8:50pm Apr 17, 2014 8:50pm
First of all lets get something perfectly clear the vast majority of the people on this thread/forum are neither an expert nor a professional, as they have not been doing this long enough to be an expert in anything other than how to loose money. It should be noted that I don't consider myself an expert in anything but my own trading. In response to your question I would say what does your trading plan tell you and if you can't answer me that question then you don't have any business trading real money yet.
  • #9
  • Apr 17, 2014 9:59pm Apr 17, 2014 9:59pm
strategy. maybe overtrading
  • #10
  • Apr 17, 2014 11:13pm Apr 17, 2014 11:13pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} I wouldn't say that the system has necessarily failed, but I would believe that your confidence towards trades may have changed. If you follow static rules and those rules typically produce a greater set of winners for range than losers for the same range, we call that success. Shooting for 100% wins isn't realistic...but neither is 100% losses. 100% losers come from a lack of confidence in that with your losses piling up, your panic level changes with each time you enter a trade. Ya get that prickly armpit feeling...ya start to doubt your...
That's really a good point. I need to improve my Psychology.
Thank you for pointing out.
Discussion is an exchange of knowledge;argument is an exchange of ignorance
  • #11
  • Apr 17, 2014 11:15pm Apr 17, 2014 11:15pm
Quoting pickers
Winning streak of 50% based on what? Based on 6 months of data or > 2 years of data? If you have more than > 2 years of data to back this fact then probably this is a one time off event. If about 6 months, then do reconsider fine tuning your winning ratio to have a better expectation.
About the wining rate , its tested on 15 years of data.
Discussion is an exchange of knowledge;argument is an exchange of ignorance
  • #12
  • Apr 18, 2014 5:44am Apr 18, 2014 5:44am
If you explain to me your system in detail I could suggest to you why it may have failed.
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #13
  • Edited 6:13am Apr 18, 2014 5:57am | Edited 6:13am
Quoting endroute
First of all lets get something perfectly clear the vast majority of the people on this thread/forum are neither an expert nor a professional, as they have not been doing this long enough to be an expert in anything other than how to loose money. It should be noted that I don't consider myself an expert in anything but my own trading. In response to your question I would say what does your trading plan tell you and if you can't answer me that question then you don't have any business trading real money yet.
That's just a typical red flag fk face response =P.. If you can't answer the thread starters question then you don't have any business swinging your dick around in here.

blou
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #14
  • Apr 18, 2014 7:05am Apr 18, 2014 7:05am
Quoting PipPirates
Hi, This is my 1st thread, please be kind. In spite of following same strategy (Which provided profit earlier), now I get loosing streak for 2 months. I was wondering, is it because of my strategy or my bad luck? My strategy has a wining rate of 50%, i get profit because, my R/R is large. All expert professional trader are here, so i am looking an answer from you. All strategy has some wining rate, but when to understand, that the following strategy became obsolete? I know about the probability, as far as the sample size increase, probability decrease,...
I think your question is incomplete. There is the possibility that the trading strategy has failed, and the possibility that you are having a run of bad luck (which is a catch all phrase that means you have no idea what is happening to you). More likely, however, is a third option, which is a failure in the trader (you), that has not been properly diagnosed. No one here can answer your question because none of us know anything about you nor what you are doing. Sit down and analyze what you are doing and what is going wrong with your trading. Then come back here to seek help with something we can wrap our heads around, rather than just guess from the endless possibilities. Good luck and I hope it works out for you.
  • #15
  • Apr 18, 2014 7:36am Apr 18, 2014 7:36am
Quoting PipPirates
All expert professional trader are here, so i am looking an answer from you.
nice joke

endroute
  • #16
  • Apr 18, 2014 7:41am Apr 18, 2014 7:41am
Quoting bradu
{quote} nice joke endroute
I think Wolf thumbs up:

I will imitate enroutes baseless post..

Oh yeah hey man, you may have noticed my red flag flying up there next to my name..

Oh dear,,, It sounds like you are a trading loser??? omg... you loser omg.. Now let me just be clear that I am not claiming to be a winner, omg you loser omg..

Further to this point do you have a trading plan little man?? Cause I do.. Does your trading plan tell you to go and have a losing streak? Cause you asked me what could this all be about and I'm telling you that it is definitely not my business to comment on your losernessness just that you're a loser and I'm not. Was that your plan?
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #17
  • Apr 18, 2014 7:49am Apr 18, 2014 7:49am
Quoting Wolf_Wicked
{quote} I think Wolf thumbs up: I will imitate enroutes baseless post.. Oh yeah hey man, you may have noticed my red flag flying up there next to my name.. Oh dear,,, It sounds like you are a trading loser??? omg... you loser omg.. Now let me just be clear that I am not claiming to be a winner, omg you loser omg.. Further to this point do you have a trading plan little man?? Cause I do.. Does your trading plan tell you to go and have a losing streak? Cause you asked me what could this all be about and I'm telling you that it is definitely not my...

+1
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #18
  • Edited 11:26am Apr 18, 2014 7:57am | Edited 11:26am
can you say which markets your trading?
i had a quick look at your profile and it says the Euro and Metals

for starters the Euro has been pants for the last 6 months at least (compared to some others) with too much chop and over manipulation, other pairs are trading better - so would possibly drop the Euro for now if its the problem

the beginning of yrs are nt always as we would like, ive always put this down to the MMs trying to psych everyone out at the start of the yr and then put them on the back foot, but this yr seems to of gone on longer then usual, but possibly down to the Dow and S+P having there pullback etc, and then causing other markets (with the Dollar effect) to be a bit too rangebound where system don't always work so well

Metals, like Copper are all over the place and best left to the Market Makers
Gold has been fine, and those with experience should n't be loosing overall here

but usually its a strategy that fails and then everything else falls apart from there
sometimes through lack of knowledge / time spent and experience and also the strategy etc,
but if a particular market has changed, then the strategy also needs to be changed to incorporate the changing market, maybe less trades, but more of the higher probability trades where the system works well for a particular loosing pair or pairs

good luck
  • #19
  • Apr 18, 2014 12:25pm Apr 18, 2014 12:25pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} There is actually no truth to this statement.
no truth in what?

2 months of losing streaks for < 6 months of trading records and you still can called it 50% winning ratio system?
  • #20
  • Apr 18, 2014 12:30pm Apr 18, 2014 12:30pm
Quoting pickers
{quote} no truth in what? 2 months of losing streaks for < 6 months of trading records and you still can called it 50% winning ratio system?
There is no truth to the length of time past a calendar month that any system requires to prove merit.

We don't know that the system failed.

We only know that the trader didn't succeed.

You are missing the relevant information because I think you are a moron and you are getting defensive. You don't have to be like that.

I'm sure a lot of others think you are a moron as well...not like you are picking a fight with them in here.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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