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vsa with Malcolm

  • #25,381
  • Apr 15, 2014 9:09am Apr 15, 2014 9:09am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Classix, I appreciate that you took the time to firstly post a chart (especially of a failed trade) but secondly step to the plate and explain why you took the trade. I am a big believer that we learn more and grow more from our failed trades than we do from our winners. To your point #1 above as I noted while there we increased activity before your entry there was nothing that could be considered UHV that really stands out. Also there was not enough signs of buyers yet. Some new VSA'ers get sucked into the whole strength appears on downbars,...




whats your take on following the trend as against path of least resistance.......................
  • #25,382
  • Apr 15, 2014 9:36am Apr 15, 2014 9:36am
Quoting carbonado
{quote} whats your take on following the trend as against path of least resistance.......................
You lost me. Can you clarify what you are asking? Understand trend (althought subjective and trading plan based) and path of least resistance but I can't quite get what you question is asking.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,383
  • Apr 15, 2014 9:41am Apr 15, 2014 9:41am
Quoting pres78
{quote} You lost me. Can you clarify what you are asking? Understand trend (althought subjective and trading plan based) and path of least resistance but I can't quite get what you question is asking.

okay.the trend on what ever time frame you trade should make a cosistent movement to a particular direction........so that means lower lows.or higher highs......now path of least resistance is where price wants to go know,,,,evn if its just a retracement to a trend..............i woud be waiting for the checklist you talked about and how do you manage your trades...do you use ADR..............or an exist rule
  • #25,384
  • Apr 15, 2014 9:45am Apr 15, 2014 9:45am
Quoting pres78
{quote} You lost me. Can you clarify what you are asking? Understand trend (althought subjective and trading plan based) and path of least resistance but I can't quite get what you question is asking.
Basically all i am trying to say is do you counter trend or just trend trade.......
  • #25,385
  • Apr 15, 2014 1:05pm Apr 15, 2014 1:05pm
Quoting carbonado
{quote} okay.the trend on what ever time frame you trade should make a cosistent movement to a particular direction........so that means lower lows.or higher highs......now path of least resistance is where price wants to go know,,,,evn if its just a retracement to a trend..............i woud be waiting for the checklist you talked about and how do you manage your trades...do you use ADR..............or an exist rule
Yes a simple enough way to determine current trend is following the HH, HL or LL, LH patterns. This can be one way to stay with the higher TF trend if we only take long trades say on our entry TF if the higher TF is making HH and HL's. We can also use this simple trading this pattern on a 5min chart taking 5min entries following whatever the current 5min PA is telling us regardless of the higher TF. That said a very typical pattern at the highs and lows for the day are to see a HH followed by a LL or a LL followed by a HH with price then either heading the opposing direction into a new intraday trend or ranging off sideways into the next day. When trading the small trends within the larger trends we are free to long and short at will when the set-ups occur we do however need to be aware that these trends are very fickle and change easily. It takes longer for the overall Acc and Dist process to complete on say a 4 hour chart as trends build and change, a 5 min chart however this can happen multiple times daily as we see price ride various waves up and down. We can profit from these provided that we use smart money and risk management and realize that most trades will be for smaller pips with the occasional runners where bigger pips can be bagged with good SL management.

Yes I pay attention to ADR's for pairs. I use this for 2 reasons;

 

  1. To pick the best pairs to trade based on their 60 day ADR
  2. To see when a pair may be reaching the end of it's move for the day


ADR will not always play a role in exiting as I am more of a let the market take me out kind of trader as I trail my SL's at various locations again depending on the TF and overall expectations for the trades I am in.

Quoting carbonado
{quote} Basically all i am trying to say is do you counter trend or just trend trade.......
Yes I can and will trade long and short in the same day if the set-ups are there and meet my trade plan requirements.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,386
  • Apr 15, 2014 5:45pm Apr 15, 2014 5:45pm
First off EURUSD moved 43 pips today... please kill me now

You can't make this stuff up. No slight of hand and nothing up my sleeve. VZA is a simple but yet at the same time extremely powerful tool for knowing the where. It's up to you to find the who, what and why to round out the trade but once you know the where you stop wasting time. If you know a zone was proven to be controlled by buyers and we come back to the high and see a test you know that a long should be a safe play. 100% guaranteed, nope, never but in this business anything we can do to stack the odds and reduce the risk leads to greater chance of long term profit and success. If you have spent anytime studying R:R and differing risk models (such as % versus fixed) you know that you can be long term profitable on a lower win rate if your winners attain better than 1:1 risk reward. The better the average R:R you can achieve on your winners the lower the win rate needed to still be profitable and reduce your risk of busting out.

Back to my point (I tend to start typing and get off topic)...

Nice simple 1 zone on EURUSD let's say 1hour chart, highest volume zone when looking at a normal zoom chart where I can see March 31st through to today. First chart shows this with the zone applied as a yellow fib. As we can see L, 50% and H all played roles in the PA that followed after price came back into the zone and eventually broke the high. If you have followed my recent posts I have shown this zone already... April 3rd.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Next up a zoomed in 5 min chart where I have marked 2 red vertical lines highlighting all of the bars that made up that 1 hour bar from the previous chart. As you can see there were 4 UHV bars that made up that 1hr zone. Interestingly enough those 4 bars cover the full range of the zone. This is NOT always the case. For the purpose of this post I will focus on just the bar that made the highest single volume which is marked with the white vertical line and a white fib.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Up next let's look at the 1 hour chart again now with the two zones applied and what do we see? To try and make things easier to see I will zoom in so you can see the 3 day period between Apr 7th and 9th which is when price entered the zone, traveled through, broke the high, tested and moved up.

As you can see the new white 5min zone again played a key role. April 8th we enter the space between the white zone L and the yellow zone 50% where we range for 3 bars. Next bar we hit the 50% of the white zone finding some temp resistance before pushing up and taking out the white zone high before hitting more formidable resistance at the yellow zone high. Sideways range from here until the 9th. During the 9th we dip back into the upper half of the white zone before finding buyers at the 50% level. Back up finding more resistance at the yellow zone high before finding support at the white zone high, sideways moved and a push up and out. Return to test and boom up we go from that yellow zone high.

These are not just random lines and you don't need a math degree to calculate them. No pivots, no S1 or R1 just simple easy to apply volume (activity) zones. Again not showing any trades here but I am sure you might spot a few possibilities over just that 3 days and only looking at this zoomed in 1 hour chart. As you can see by dropping down and finding the key 5 mins of volume within that 1 hour zone we were able to further dissect that zone even further to the point where we basically explained each and every pause, range and movement onward as price made the trek from the zone L to zone H.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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One of the simplest TF pairings to trade is to take 1hr UHV preferably WRB zones and find 5min VSA entries into each of the 3 levels grabbing the pips from level to level to level...

To finish off yet another long winded post (and when I said I was tired of posting on this forum as it's dead) back to a normal zoom 1 hour chart. See yet again how when price came back to these zones this week we entered that space between the yellow and white zones, range sideways, push back up and the back to the high on NS finding support again.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh14.png Size: 58 KB


Where will we go from here? Who really knows. What I do know is the levels where I will expect to see trade set-ups occur and then once in a trade I know where the most likely turn, pause and stop points are for my trade management.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,387
  • Apr 15, 2014 6:21pm Apr 15, 2014 6:21pm
Gold however moved a touch better... 60 day ADR is 18.33 points, today 43.51! Can anyone say holy shit!

Where were sellers found? HMM?

Zoomed out 1hr chart with 2 zones applied. Which 2? How about the 2 huge middle finger spikes seen on Mar 19th and April 4th (do those dates look familiar to anyone? Important UHV dates seen before?).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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You can almost see the magic on the zoomed out chart but for those with bad or aging eyes like me I will zoom it in for everyone to truly enjoy the beauty that are the charts... Zoomed in enough to see mainly this weeks action as price approached and eventually hit that upper zones L on an increased volume up bar. The big move was seen today but the sellers started their BIZ-NAS yesterday. Down to the lower zone and we see buyers / profit taking to the tune of a 19ish point raise from the days low (yes 19 points as in more than the 60 day ADR!).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusdh12.png Size: 56 KB


Now if you can't see the beauty in these charts your in the wrong business.

And with that I am thinking another retirement from posting may be in order.

Trade well.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,388
  • Apr 16, 2014 1:05am Apr 16, 2014 1:05am
@Pres78
just want to experiment and duplicate your charts so i can make it my routine and study properly but found some thing interesting and confused which one bar should i select to draw zone.. and can i pm you a link that i cant post in forum if you allow me to do it. thanks in advance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Think Twice Low Volume is Key to Success
  • #25,389
  • Apr 16, 2014 4:26am Apr 16, 2014 4:26am
Quoting pres78
Gold however moved a touch better... 60 day ADR is 18.33 points, today 43.51! Can anyone say holy shit! Where were sellers found? HMM? Zoomed out 1hr chart with 2 zones applied. Which 2? How about the 2 huge middle finger spikes seen on Mar 19th and April 4th (do those dates look familiar to anyone? Important UHV dates seen before?). {image} You can almost see the magic on the zoomed out chart but for those with bad or aging eyes like me I will zoom it in for everyone to truly enjoy the beauty that are the charts... Zoomed in enough to see mainly...

Good day pres 78.... UHV bars are getting my attention....only that am just beginning to get a hang of it....as there are time that traditional VSA would make look for a trade in one direction while using VZA...would make you look for trade in the opposite direction....especially during news time.....you would not pay attention to that region much after the news using traditional...vsa.............anyway...i would like you help me with the analysis of e/a...........and i want to ask do you hold trades for days............
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraudh1.png Size: 46 KB
  • #25,390
  • Apr 16, 2014 4:42am Apr 16, 2014 4:42am
Quoting carbonado
{quote} Good day pres 78.... UHV bars are getting my attention....only that am just beginning to get a hang of it....as there are time that traditional VSA would make look for a trade in one direction while using VZA...would make you look for trade in the opposite direction....especially during news time.....you would not pay attention to that region much after the news using traditional...vsa.............anyway...i would like you help me with the analysis of e/a...........and i want to ask do you hold trades for days............ {image}
first..how do you pick the zones...........when do yo know a zones is not valid again..........and what if price does not reach another UHV zone before it changes direction..................
  • #25,391
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:07am Apr 16, 2014 5:07am
From the explanations of pres78, This could be a buy signal? Many thanks

I'd like to see some confirmation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcadh4.png Size: 71 KB
Newbie trader
  • #25,392
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:15am Apr 16, 2014 5:15am
Quoting pres78
Gold however moved a touch better... 60 day ADR is 18.33 points, today 43.51! Can anyone say holy shit! Where were sellers found? HMM? Zoomed out 1hr chart with 2 zones applied. Which 2? How about the 2 huge middle finger spikes seen on Mar 19th and April 4th (do those dates look familiar to anyone? Important UHV dates seen before?). {image} You can almost see the magic on the zoomed out chart but for those with bad or aging eyes like me I will zoom it in for everyone to truly enjoy the beauty that are the charts... Zoomed in enough to see mainly...
i see market slowing down......there could be a reversal on e/a..........as the price is close to the UHV bar of 3rd of april................
  • #25,393
  • Apr 16, 2014 7:07am Apr 16, 2014 7:07am
Quoting pres78
VZA is a simple but yet at the same time extremely powerful tool for knowing the where. It's up to you to find the who, what and why to round out the trade but once you know the where you stop wasting time.
This, for me, has been the crux. Finding some nice shiny zones to put on the chart is the easy part. EU hourly is quite nice at the moment for placing zones, I have three very distinct zones to keep an eye on. You can see them in the chart below. What i've seemed to struggle with is defining what the zone means and finding an entry to suit, this is where pres excels.

My next comment is for people reading this thread and for people reading through his past posts. In my eyes what makes pres an excellent trader is the ability to pick the entries in and around these zone highs and lows. This is the part to pay the most attention to from his previous posts. Where (if you can believe it!) he went into even more detail than what he has done in his posts the last few weeks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #25,394
  • Apr 16, 2014 11:46am Apr 16, 2014 11:46am
Pres78,

It is clearer now where one should start looking for ND, NS and test bars. New volume surge with its efforts and results are incorporated with previous extreme volume levels to analyse price action.



Quoting pres78
First off EURUSD moved 43 pips today... please kill me now You can't make this stuff up. No slight of hand and nothing up my sleeve. VZA is a simple but yet at the same time extremely powerful tool for knowing the where. It's up to you to find the who, what and why to round out the trade but once you know the where you stop wasting time. If you know a zone was proven to be controlled by buyers and we come back to the high and see a test you know that a long should be a safe play. 100% guaranteed, nope, never but in this business anything...
  • #25,395
  • Apr 16, 2014 4:37pm Apr 16, 2014 4:37pm
Quoting classix
@Pres78 just want to experiment and duplicate your charts so i can make it my routine and study properly but found some thing interesting and confused which one bar should i select to draw zone.. and can i pm you a link that i cant post in forum if you allow me to do it. thanks in advance. {image}

Classix,

Yes I have my PM's open to anyone that wants to send me questions etc... off line. No issues sending me PM's provided it doesn't get out of control (not directed at you just anyone in general). For the most part I want the conversations to be on the forums so others can learn and benefit.

To keep it simple at first pick the bars that are the highest volume which really stand out from the others. If on a day you have two bars that are both UHV and close to each other in the amount of volume you can pick one or the other, add a fib to both covering the overall H to L.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,396
  • Apr 16, 2014 4:51pm Apr 16, 2014 4:51pm
Quoting carbonado
{quote} first..how do you pick the zones...........when do yo know a zones is not valid again..........and what if price does not reach another UHV zone before it changes direction..................

Carbonado,

UHV that really stands out is the easy answer to get started with. It can get more complex and refined as you understand how the zones work and more about finding the smaller supply and demand / activity zones within the larger zones to really pin point entries. A zone is no longer valid when a new UHV zone replaces it in the future. If price does not reach another UHV zone and changes direction it is because it has hit a supply or demand zone not marked on your chart. We can't get them all and sometimes price will just appear to stop in the middle of nowhere. I assure you however that if you look back far enough and dissect the zones you can almost always find the reason for the turn. Also remember there are no straight lines in FX and just because price starts up towards a new zone but stops and goes back down this does not mean that that zone will not be reached. Price movements are series of ups and downs. We always go down at least some even when the ultimate SM target is higher up. They need to slowly deal with filling their buy orders, removing the supply overhead and the filling more buy orders and so on (opposite for SM selling). This is why we will often see what we think are SOS and are sure price is going up only to see a new low printed before the real move begins. A fake move down to suck in shorts while filling more buy orders a more attractive lower prices.

To succeed in trading we need to learn more than VSA or VZA we need to understand market dynamic and how buyers and sellers operate and how to tell which side the SM ultimately is on. Again if we trade on a lower TF we can still trade both the ups and downs however the big pips, longer term, higher RR trades will always be with the SM in their ultimate direction. The more buys we can get in on at lower prices while SM are also buying the more chance we can trail the trade for a great R:R provide we let the trade breath. How do we do this? We trail our SL's below the last locations we saw SM buying and work our way up with the SL below the buying swings. This answers a question from another post of yours. Yes I will hold trades for days if the PA allows it and if I was able to get in low (or high) enough to trail my SL successfully. Nothing better than getting in a trade with a nice tight SL and riding it for days gathering hundreds of pips and massive R:R.

I manage my risk and trades in such a way that any trade could turn into a runner however I take some of the table to balance my risk as soon as I can without ruining the trade.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,397
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:10pm Apr 16, 2014 5:10pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
{quote} This, for me, has been the crux. Finding some nice shiny zones to put on the chart is the easy part. EU hourly is quite nice at the moment for placing zones, I have three very distinct zones to keep an eye on. You can see them in the chart below. What i've seemed to struggle with is defining what the zone means and finding an entry to suit, this is where pres excels. My next comment is for people reading this thread and for people reading through his past posts. In my eyes what makes pres an excellent trader is the ability to pick the entries...
Now Liam are you saying my recent posts have not been detailed enough I think I have said lots considering I said I was done posting to a basically dead forum.

Entries are the key and the most difficult to learn and to teach. I think I could teach most people to read the charts better and to find better entries but not in the format. In person or online training perhaps with live charts and where I could talk would make things much easier than trying to convey complex thoughts in a written forum. That all equals more time that I do not have however...

It is hard to teach other to trade you do when using a subjective method like VSA. It is subjective because there are so many variables that differ from trader to trader. Quality of brokers volume feed (size of liquidity pool), broker server time (gives us the whole 4hr charts all look different issue). These issues combined with each of our interpretations on what exactly is UHV or low volume. What bar prints we like for ND, ND or test etc...

To successfully teach people to trade on these forums you need a system that is 100% mechanical with set variables that everyone call follow with no differences. These systems normally involve a few conformation indicators and when all indicators are in line you pull the trigger. Simple, no judgement needed. Does this work? Yes it sure does however as indicators are mostly lagging you can risk getting whipsawed (most of these mechanical systems are trend following) and getting in right at the end of the moves.

Can VSA be made mechanical? Somewhat yes. Every trader should have a trade plan that states you will only take low volume tests into "insert location here" and so on. We can make fixed rules for ourselves and on take trades that meet our rules. I have a trade plan myself that I am forever tweaking but over the years I have also become a bit more open in my trading and thinking and as such run a bit more flexible in my entry criteria. I have become adept and reading moves and knowing when to get in, when to get out and when to stay in etc... It takes a lot of time and a lot of effort and like I said I think I could teach people to better view the markets but I am not sure I can accomplish this on here.

Anyway VZA is a great first step. Once you are able to apply the zone and start to see the reactions to these zones you will be able to start picking out entries in hindsight at first and eventually at the right edge. As I said before one really needs to spend time understanding how the market really moves and why. Understanding supply and demand and what each look like as they unfold will bring you miles ahead in your trading. Supply and demand are make up the VZA zones and when you see first how the zone was formed on the smaller TF's and then the reactions after will help you in deciding who is truly in control and where you are trading with them or against them.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,398
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:11pm Apr 16, 2014 5:11pm
Quoting fex
From the explanations of pres78, This could be a buy signal? Many thanks I'd like to see some confirmation. {image}
Confirmation is the key Fex!
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,399
  • Apr 16, 2014 6:11pm Apr 16, 2014 6:11pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} Confirmation is the key Fex!
Many thanks pres78
Newbie trader
  • #25,400
  • Apr 17, 2014 1:22am Apr 17, 2014 1:22am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Carbonado, UHV that really stands out is the easy answer to get started with. It can get more complex and refined as you understand how the zones work and more about finding the smaller supply and demand / activity zones within the larger zones to really pin point entries. A zone is no longer valid when a new UHV zone replaces it in the future. If price does not reach another UHV zone and changes direction it is because it has hit a supply or demand zone not marked on your chart. We can't get them all and sometimes price will just appear...


thanks so much pres
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