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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #14,041
  • Apr 13, 2014 6:26am Apr 13, 2014 6:26am
From yesterdays ECB release.
Quote
The ECB president has once again said that any additional strengthening of the euro would warrant non-standard measures such as quantitative easing.

And people say i am off with negative rate cut, Draghi is even talking about one step over that. My plan still stays the same, short every month ECB meeting ahead of interest rate release. Would be interesting to see how deep can QE push EUR, USD is reserve currency so QE doesnt have as near impact as it would had on EUR, but then on other hand GBP is not reserve currency either and we hadnt see big inflation or GBP weakening against other currencies. Hm.
  • #14,042
  • Apr 13, 2014 4:13pm Apr 13, 2014 4:13pm
I don't like at all this gap down ..., on my plans was a touch to 1.3914-1.3954 ... then 3W drop to near 1.38 ... and a push higher to 1.4040 ...

Will let the dust to sit down and then to the maths agains ...
  • #14,043
  • Apr 14, 2014 2:38am Apr 14, 2014 2:38am
Gold levels on up stairs, opened with shooting up, caught 30 of those pips placed long right on open. No stoping in sight until 1350.
http://prntscr.com/39ucqr
  • #14,044
  • Edited 4:51am Apr 14, 2014 4:25am | Edited 4:51am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} 2% per day on EU is very nice considering how shitty it is most of time comparing to some other pairs hehe.

EU is predictable intraday most time.


Could you, please, inform me any other pair that behaves itself as EU does?
Hunting High and Low
  • #14,045
  • Apr 14, 2014 4:43am Apr 14, 2014 4:43am
Well ... as 1.3860 give out on Sunday open ... now plans changes ... will no short, will no long ... till 240Min indies aling ...that could be near 1.3789-1.3761 for a first try on long side
  • #14,046
  • Apr 14, 2014 5:28am Apr 14, 2014 5:28am
Hi Friends,

back again in Germany. Sorry for not being able to post.......

Catch you all later.
  • #14,047
  • Apr 14, 2014 5:34am Apr 14, 2014 5:34am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} EU is predictable intraday most time. Could you, please, inform me any other pair that behaves itself as EU does?
Hm i trade plenty of pairs and usually i dont see them as predictable or less predictable. Its all just supply and demand if demand is broken on one pair it will make just as "predictable" short on bounce like any other, but it is true that reaction might not be as precise on EU (for example GA, EA) due to bigger movement strenght and less liquidity.

Just two examples, those two were just as much predictable both supply zones hit on different pairs. Usually for mE crosspairs are more predictable to read if there is significant movement on certain currency (trend, printing, whatever) that can better define where crosspair should move. Dollar pairs are more stable and therefore i would define them less predictable unless there is dollar Thursday, a day after FOMC now thats when i trade only GU and EU couse its much more predictable than other pairs at that time.
http://prntscr.com/39v7q7
http://prntscr.com/39v7y1


I dont know if you asked rethorical question but i thought i would still explain it
  • #14,048
  • Edited 6:16am Apr 14, 2014 5:57am | Edited 6:16am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} I dont know if you asked rethorical question but i thought i would still explain it

I completely understand you are saying. however, as I am trading intraday only, my supply/demand levels are intraday as well.
That is why when I am saying of "prediction of behaviour" I mean that the pair might have predictable reaction near support/resistance levels that is in turn possible when the pair has the mean volatility in comparison with the other pairs.


For example, we have EURUSD and EURJPY - in spite of both pairs' identical behaving, EURUSD works our the levels well enough, in turn EURJPY is much more inertial and it goes thought the support/resistance levels and bounces back lower or higher these levels.


So, you are saying about EURAUD as an example for a "predictable" pair as an alternative to EURUSD. Right?
Hunting High and Low
  • #14,049
  • Edited 8:59am Apr 14, 2014 7:34am | Edited 8:59am
Yep completly agree, EU and GU follow levels very closely due to higher liquidity, not always just example just missed pending short on EU by 2 pips, so even EU is not reliable all the time, and i rather see pair go trough my pending 10 pips in DD than not triggering it at all.
http://prntscr.com/39vzf7


AJ buy going well: (EDIT exited +32 ahead of TP)
http://prntscr.com/39vy7d


Here is pending for GA if we test higher:
http://prntscr.com/39w0ur

GCHF long, with nice terrible spread.
http://prntscr.com/39w1a1

AN buying at top, some would call it stupid
http://prntscr.com/39wnmb
  • #14,050
  • Edited 3:16pm Apr 14, 2014 9:31am | Edited 3:16pm
Quoting janpec1000
Yep completly agree, EU and GU follow levels very closely due to higher liquidity, not always just example just missed pending short on EU by 2 pips, so even EU is not reliable all the time, and i rather see pair go trough my pending 10 pips in DD than not triggering it at all. http://prntscr.com/39vzf7 AJ buy going well: (EDIT exited +32 ahead of TP) http://prntscr.com/39vy7d Here is pending for GA if we test higher: http://prntscr.com/39w0ur GCHF long, with nice terrible spread. http://prntscr.com/39w1a1...
GA triggered and hit TP +10. Will reshort later will post entry.

EDIT: Closed GCHF long +6. Heh made really sharp exits today both GA and GCHF bounced exactly on exits.

Holding GCAD long now +2 (8346). +10% acc increase so far today hopefully not doing anything stupid for next 3 hours.

EDIT2: Closed GCAD long -8.


Quick corelation analysis for EUR:
http://prntscr.com/3a0hlh
http://prntscr.com/3a0i5x
http://prntscr.com/3a0ij7
http://prntscr.com/3a0iwx

Looks like dollar up, aud up and eur down. Still a bit too early to tell we need 1 more daily candle everywhere for clear direction.
  • #14,051
  • Edited 4:09am Apr 15, 2014 3:47am | Edited 4:09am
Hi Surfers,

If 0.7066 is the end of the decades long down-trend, I've a very simple hypothesis...

The move from 0.7066 to 0.9972 can be considered as wave [i] of a new cycle

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly.jpg Size: 81 KB






and we are atm in the last move of the corrective wave [II] : wave v of C. And this one can go to 50% of Wave [1] = 0.8521

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: D1.jpg Size: 51 KB


Zoom

and this being the wave v of wave C, it could be equal to wave i of C and this give us something like 85xx
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: D1zoom.jpg Size: 104 KB
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #14,052
  • Edited 10:24am Apr 15, 2014 5:49am | Edited 10:24am
Dammit gold up trend broken, dumps of shorts right on london open.

Seriously how stupid is that:
http://prntscr.com/3a6j2x

It went almost 3 pips over my pending and didnt trigger, is that reason to complain to broker? I mean its bigger than spread (2 pips).


Btw has anyone here experiance with tick chart trading? I just bought indie for Mt4 and i am figuring if there are some sharpening i can add to my system with it and if anyone has been doing similar.
Pic:
http://prntscr.com/3a70if

Oh and by the way that gold drop was 3 minutes before news, compelte buyback of drop....manipulation at its best. Bullish pinbars with bear body are the most obvious example of gold manipulation on downside they usually happen 14:30, 15:15 and 16:30 my time (GMT+1).


And here is second entry not triggered (went 4.5 pips over):
http://prntscr.com/3a8eom

Seriously costed me 65 pips today, should i move to ECN broker or something couse i can stand my own loses but not triggered trades from broker side make me mad.

First trade on USDRUB. Pips are measured wierd, from profit view i am holding 60 pips profit, but if i convert it into pips it says spread is 300 pips and i am holding 900 pips. Well either way account will agree on 60.
http://prntscr.com/3a8fnu
  • #14,053
  • Apr 16, 2014 6:47am Apr 16, 2014 6:47am
Quoting rbetancor
Well ... as 1.3860 give out on Sunday open ... now plans changes ... will no short, will no long ... till 240Min indies aling ...that could be near 1.3789-1.3761 for a first try on long side
Hi rbentancor,

you should know milam is a "ego poster on FF thread"! As you can see he don't understand what you mean and what can happen the next hours!
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...15#post7410015

He makes every day 5% of his account with 50 Pips SL!!!! And sometimes he make 9%-20% per day! Scroll back in this thread as milam posted here infinitus and i asked them why they don't post in timely manner his entrys. He then disappeared and post the same shit in the U.S. forum.

I can only laugh about this guy!!!
  • #14,054
  • Apr 16, 2014 7:02am Apr 16, 2014 7:02am
Quoting rbetancor
Well ... as 1.3860 give out on Sunday open ... now plans changes ... will no short, will no long ... till 240Min indies aling ...that could be near 1.3789-1.3761 for a first try on long side
lets see what will now happen with his trade....

his entry was 0.8659

and he is @ BE atm...

so wait and enjoy..... what will happen now
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: kiwi entry.PNG Size: 7 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: be.PNG Size: 9 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: target and be.PNG Size: 11 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD.PNG Size: 8 KB
  • #14,055
  • Apr 16, 2014 7:04am Apr 16, 2014 7:04am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} Hi rbentancor, you should know milam is a "ego poster on FF thread"! As you can see he don't understand what you mean and what can happen the next hours! http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...15#post7410015 He makes every day 5% of his account with 50 Pips SL!!!! And sometimes he make 9%-20% per day! Scroll back in this thread as milam posted here infinitus and i asked them why they don't post in timely manner his entrys. He then disappeared and post the same shit in the U.S. forum. I can only laugh about this guy!!!...
I know ... seems to be a full looser that don't try to ever undestand what others tell to him ... it's up to him.

I have posted my possible entries for the long run this morning ... will follow them, I'm sure they will be ok
  • #14,056
  • Apr 16, 2014 7:08am Apr 16, 2014 7:08am
Quoting rbetancor
{quote} I know ... seems to be a full looser that don't try to ever undestand what others tell to him ... it's up to him. I have posted my possible entries for the long run this morning ... will follow them, I'm sure they will be ok
by the way good work rbetancor

i also added shorts 1.38498 on the news and i have one payed trade and the 2nd trade is @ BE (as you have said - this is a low risk trade)

let's see if it works
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: high.PNG Size: 28 KB
  • #14,057
  • Apr 16, 2014 7:49am Apr 16, 2014 7:49am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} by the way good work rbetancor i also added shorts 1.38498 on the news and i have one payed trade and the 2nd trade is @ BE (as you have said - this is a low risk trade) let's see if it works {image}
Yes ... it's a low risk trade, but counter-trade ... not bad, as you control your risk and put it @BE as soon as possible.

But our friend Milan, open ops in the middle of nowhere, takking high risks ... that's what I have told him ... it's obvious that he doesn't listen ... I'm sure him Long entry will be taken out ... but ... worst for him ...
  • #14,058
  • Apr 16, 2014 8:28am Apr 16, 2014 8:28am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} by the way good work rbetancor i also added shorts 1.38498 on the news and i have one payed trade and the 2nd trade is @ BE (as you have said - this is a low risk trade) let's see if it works {image}
cashed @ 3817

+32 Pips
  • #14,059
  • Apr 16, 2014 8:33am Apr 16, 2014 8:33am
Quoting rbetancor
{quote} Yes ... it's a low risk trade, but counter-trade ... not bad, as you control your risk and put it @BE as soon as possible. But our friend Milan, open ops in the middle of nowhere, takking high risks ... that's what I have told him ... it's obvious that he doesn't listen ... I'm sure him Long entry will be taken out ... but ... worst for him ...
you said it before

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...78#post7410478
  • #14,060
  • Apr 16, 2014 8:33am Apr 16, 2014 8:33am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} cashed @ 3817 +32 Pips
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