Fundamental + Technical EU GU UC UJ NU AU EJ | Forex Factory

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Attachments: Fundamental + Technical EU GU UC UJ NU AU EJ
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Fundamental + Technical EU GU UC UJ NU AU EJ

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  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 11:41am Apr 13, 2014 11:24am | Edited 11:41am
we will trade Funday and technical Trading of EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF EURJPY NZDUSD AUDUSD
ALL SETUPS SHOULD BE SUPPORT FUNDAMENTAL + TECHNICAL

I start this Thread because i want to talk about all fundamentals+ technical on that pairs on one place that might help each other to understand and make a bias in trading. i have found such type of setups which support technical and fundamental usually best setups ever in my career.i will share with you my price action setups that on 4 hour above Time frame.

we all talk strictly on above mentioned pairs.
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  • #2
  • Apr 13, 2014 11:44am Apr 13, 2014 11:44am
nice thread

EU correlates with lot of pairs.Its the Elephant in the house and that effects most other majors.If getting it right with EU will help others.
Here is a nice Report

"Deflation, however, is not the only concern for the ECB. The situation in the labour market barely improved, as the overall jobless rate stood at 11.9% in February. Although the number of people out of work declined by 35,000 over the period, almost 19 million people are still looking for jobs. What is more important, the latest figures drew attention to the high level of divergence in employment and social outcomes. The unemployment rate in Europe's powerhouse remained unchanged, while situation in Italy's labour market deteriorated further, with the gauge of unemployment soaring to a fresh high of 13.0%. Additionally, producer prices disappointed markets, while fourth quarter’s growth was revised down to 0.2% from 0.3% expected earlier, meaning the economy almost stalled. So far, the ECB has done little to boost growth or stop Euro’s appreciation, as EUR/USD around 1.40 is a threat to the economy.

"The latest meeting only bolstered the case Draghi is ready to “do whatever it takes” to save the Euro. While he is still reluctant to make bold steps, a slew of disappointing data will sooner or later force the ECB to pull the trigger. Therefore, it is highly likely we will see a weaker Euro in the second quarter.

With interest rate at .25 and inflation at 1% and currency at 1.39 is a receipt for disaster considering 19million are out of job in EZ
EZ elections in May and we could see EU plunge to 1.35 or lower.

I am short 1st target 1.36
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3
  • Apr 13, 2014 11:49am Apr 13, 2014 11:49am
Quoting Davit
nice thread EU correlates with lot of pairs.Its the Elephant in the house and that effects most other majors.If getting it right with EU will help others. Here is a nice Report {image}
oh thanks Davit for your nice contribution

my also mean to start this thread because some people are new here and don't understand how correlation ship work in between Forex trading pairs.if they all on one place then they know better what they are going to do.they fails because they don't know about what the fundamentals are coming.the true thing is only technically are not sufficient for successful trading.i will also contribute my experience .
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  • #4
  • Apr 13, 2014 11:57am Apr 13, 2014 11:57am
Quoting mmudasir
{quote} oh thanks Davit for your nice contribution my also mean to start this thread because some people are new here and don't understand how correlation ship work in between Forex trading pairs.if they all on one place then they know better what they are going to do.they fails because they don't know about what the fundamentals are coming.the true thing is only technically are not sufficient for successful trading.i will also contribute my experience .
Argument between tech and fundi is old but in my view you need both.Fundies for undercurrent factors pushing price and charts for levels where PA may turn or continue.
regards

Nice site for correlations on live data.You can change weekly monthly daily
http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market/correlation

For example
NU is highly negatively correlated with U/CHF If U/CHF goes down NU goes up and EU is highly correlated with U/CHF (U/CHF is reaching solid support)
So domino effect if EU goes down U/CHF goes up causing NU to plunge down.
So we can see how if one is shorting EU and EU goes down most certainly you will be selling U/CHF NU and AU as well including GU which is highly correlated with EU.
Bottom line we must place greatest energy trying to figure EU movements.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #5
  • Apr 13, 2014 12:03pm Apr 13, 2014 12:03pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Argument between tech and fundi is old but in my view you need both.Fundies for undercurrent factors pushing price and charts for levels where PA may turn or continue. regards Nice site for correlations on live data.You can change weekly monthly daily http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market/correlation

You are a Real Man Davit
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  • #6
  • Apr 13, 2014 12:13pm Apr 13, 2014 12:13pm
Quoting Davit
nice thread EU correlates with lot of pairs.Its the Elephant in the house and that effects most other majors.If getting it right with EU will help others. Here is a nice Report "Deflation, however, is not the only concern for the ECB. The situation in the labour market barely improved, as the overall jobless rate stood at 11.9% in February. Although the number of people out of work declined by 35,000 over the period, almost 19 million people are still looking for jobs. What is more important, the latest figures drew attention to the high level of...
Hello dear friend

Thanks for ur nice explaination, since I am novice in forex trading, I have some problem with the Idiom and some phrases of trading for example what do u mean by second quarter?

And about the correlation of these pair we can say: NU and EU are positively correlated but with UCHF negatively... IS it true?
  • #7
  • Apr 13, 2014 12:19pm Apr 13, 2014 12:19pm
Quoting Iraniatrader
{quote} Hello dear friend Thanks for ur nice explaination, since I am novice in forex trading, I have some problem with the Idiom and some phrases of trading for example what do u mean by second quarter? And about the correlation of these pair we can say: NU and EU are positively correlated but with UCHF negatively... IS it true?
Hi Iraniantrader.

Click on correlation site.Click on EU and top left you will see -99.1 highest negative correlation with U/CHF
Some use this fact as hedging strategy...Not getting into that now.
Point is click on pairs you are interested and see how each pair reflects weekly and monthly.
If you have not gone to http://www.babypips.com/ I highly suggest you do and graduate the school.Its free.

Definition of 'Quarter - Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4'

A three-month period on a financial calendar that acts as a basis for the reporting of earnings and the paying of dividends. A quarter refers to one-fourth of a year and is typically expressed as "Q." The four quarters that make up the year are: January, February and March (Q1); April, May and June (Q2); July, August and September (Q3); and October, November and December (Q4)

So my bias in 2Q is EU Short.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8
  • Apr 13, 2014 12:20pm Apr 13, 2014 12:20pm
Quoting Iraniatrader
{quote} Hello dear friend Thanks for ur nice explaination, since I am novice in forex trading, I have some problem with the Idiom and some phrases of trading for example what do u mean by second quarter? And about the correlation of these pair we can say: NU and EU are positively correlated but with UCHF negatively... IS it true?
For example, the QOQ measure can be used to compare the earnings between quarters. Let's say that the ABC Company's first quarter earnings were $1.50 per share and its second quarter earnings were $1.75 per share. This means that the company has grown its earnings by 16.6% quarter-on-quarter ($1.75-$1.50/$1.50), which is a good sign for investors

EURUSD HAVE strongly negative correlation with USDCHF

NU have strong positive correlation with AU

NU AU IS commodity currencies
so they are strongly Correlated
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  • #9
  • Apr 13, 2014 12:23pm Apr 13, 2014 12:23pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Iraniantrader. Click on correlation site.Click on EU and top left you will see -99.1 highest negative correlation with U/CHF Some use this fact as hedging strategy...Not getting into that now. Point is click on pairs you are interested and see how each pair reflects weekly and monthly. If you have not gone to http://www.babypips.com/ I highly suggest you do and graduate the school.Its free. Definition of 'Quarter - Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4' A three-month period on a financial calendar that acts as a basis for the reporting of earnings...
Really thanks for ur guidance...
  • #10
  • Apr 13, 2014 12:24pm Apr 13, 2014 12:24pm
Quoting mmudasir
{quote} For example, the QOQ measure can be used to compare the earnings between quarters. Let's say that the ABC Company's first quarter earnings were $1.50 per share and its second quarter earnings were $1.75 per share. This means that the company has grown its earnings by 16.6% quarter-on-quarter ($1.75-$1.50/$1.50), which is a good sign for investors EURUSD HAVE strongly negative correlation with USDCHF NU have strong positive correlation with AU NU AU IS commodity currencies so they are strongly Correlated
And U 2 , thank u for ur explanation..
  • #11
  • Apr 13, 2014 1:50pm Apr 13, 2014 1:50pm
Let me know , what fundamentals effect are expected on Monday ? We have probably have homesales of USD .. The recent positive data of USD have not yet been able to strengthen USD , what could be the reason ? Ukraine ? Or what about the liquidity , which news shall create the max liquidity in coming week ?
  • #12
  • Apr 13, 2014 2:10pm Apr 13, 2014 2:10pm
Sorry , retail sales.
  • #13
  • Apr 14, 2014 10:45am Apr 14, 2014 10:45am
The strengthening of the exchange rate would require, to make our monetary policy stance to remain equally accommodative, it would require further monetary policy accommodation,” Draghi told reporters in Washington on April 12. “The strengthening of the exchange rate requires further monetary stimulus. That’s an important dimension for our price stability.”
Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer said the strong euro is a “serious preoccupation,” while Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said the exchange rate was one of the factors in the ECB’s inflation assessment and officials “are considering” its effects.
The euro has appreciated 5.4 percent during the past 12 months. It weakened 0.4 percent today to $1.3828.
“The impact of the ECB comments is clearly positive for the complete European government bonds-universe with hopes for further conventional or unconventional measures by the ECB no later than the June meeting,” said Michael Rottman, head of fixed-income research at UniCredit SpA in Munich. “We would expect some additional spread tightening between the periphery and core, especially bunds.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...lus-plans.html

My view is selling will start before June.As the saying goes by the time its headline news its too late.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #14
  • Apr 14, 2014 10:51am Apr 14, 2014 10:51am
Inserted Video

Its getting ugly already
By Elections next month we could see serious unrest. 19 million unemployed but this figure is lot higher.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #15
  • Apr 14, 2014 2:19pm Apr 14, 2014 2:19pm
Quoting mmudasir
{quote} For example, the QOQ measure can be used to compare the earnings between quarters. Let's say that the ABC Company's first quarter earnings were $1.50 per share and its second quarter earnings were $1.75 per share. This means that the company has grown its earnings by 16.6% quarter-on-quarter ($1.75-$1.50/$1.50), which is a good sign for investors EURUSD HAVE strongly negative correlation with USDCHF NU have strong positive correlation with AU NU AU IS commodity currencies so they are strongly Correlated
where can I get data2 Q1, Q2, Q3, so I can count such as you, sorry ,my bad language
  • #16
  • Apr 14, 2014 11:23pm Apr 14, 2014 11:23pm
AUD/USD trades range bound today ahead of tonight’s RBA minutes, with analysts expecting a positive economic outlook to be announced after the unemployed
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  • #17
  • Apr 14, 2014 11:26pm Apr 14, 2014 11:26pm
Quoting sndtrader
{quote} where can I get data2 Q1, Q2, Q3, so I can count such as you, sorry ,my bad language
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

this is the main website of Europe central bank.you can get statistics and Reports of Q1 Q2 like this.hopefully it will help this
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  • #18
  • Apr 14, 2014 11:48pm Apr 14, 2014 11:48pm
Very Important thread for me as personal. Thanks for you guys who forming this thread
  • #19
  • Apr 15, 2014 12:59am Apr 15, 2014 12:59am
ECB's Noyer (dove) says the ECB is prepared to use unconventional policies to deal with risks of a prolonged period of low inflation. Noyer's rhetoric fits in with the ECB's recent party line, after Draghi talked down the strong EUR on Saturday.

EURUSD go down i think we reached at top for now.Start selling in Rallies are Good :-)

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily.png Size: 36 KB
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  • #20
  • Apr 15, 2014 1:14am Apr 15, 2014 1:14am
Quoting mmudasir
ECB's Noyer (dove) says the ECB is prepared to use unconventional policies to deal with risks of a prolonged period of low inflation. Noyer's rhetoric fits in with the ECB's recent party line, after Draghi talked down the strong EUR on Saturday. EURUSD go down i think we reached at top for now.Start selling in Rallies are Good :-) ------------------------------------------------------------------ {image}
Hi Mmudasir
Agree and bottom line is EZ can't survive Euro at 140 or above under present fundamentals.
I suggest if you are going to short have patience it may take a week or two but by May ball will be going south.
Latest US numbers were great lot better then anticipated retail sales up 1.1%
From my perspective USD will get strengthen next quarter.

regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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