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vsa with Malcolm

  • #25,361
  • Apr 11, 2014 12:13am Apr 11, 2014 12:13am
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} I think this is really a question for Pres78. I will give it a go though. I would be looking for price to close firmly below the 50% line (middle green line). Then I would look for price to move back up towards that line. A No Demand in that scenario, would be the place to attempt a short. If price closes above the high of that UpThrust, which is about equal to the close of the Buying Climax (not a coincidence), I would change from bear to bull and start looking for tests.
Thank you so much.... I have always enjoyed your charts and commentary.... i think after all this time i am finally starting to get things or see things that i didn't see early on. I am starting to realize my issue has always been jumping in too soon and not waiting for conformation.

Jamie
  • #25,362
  • Apr 11, 2014 4:25am Apr 11, 2014 4:25am
Quoting pres78
read these mindful scribblings...
Awesome post as always. People should print this and drill it into their heads.
  • #25,363
  • Apr 12, 2014 2:02pm Apr 12, 2014 2:02pm
Hello ladies and gentlemen, let's talk the Euro.

Check out the chart below. The first thing to note is that the current trend is UP.

Before looking forward, we need to look back. Take a look at the cause of the current up trend. Technically, the cause of the up trend is an accumulation phase. In this case , the start of the accumulation phase was the Climatic Action bar. But the really key bar is the Stopping volume bar. Notice the amount of volume on that bar. Now's a good time to go back to VSA 101 and state, " When strength appears, it usually appears on down bars.". Here we don't just have a down bar, we have a down bar that closes well off its lows and on Ultra High Volume.

That Ultra High Volume is the key. The up trend is likely to continue until we see equivalent volume on an up bar. As we know, markets do not like up bars on high volume. And as VSA 101 states, " When weakness appears, it usually appears on up bars.".

So what does the future hold?

I have no idea. I do know that we should see an up bar on Ultra high volume (the same, more, or even slightly less than the volume on the stopping volume interval), if the trend is going to change. The last interval from Friday, appears to be a down bar on volume less than the previous two. This is No Supply. If the next bar is up, that would confirm the No Supply and be bullish. We could, however, see a Test. A Test is a down bar that closes off its lows on volume less than the previous two bars. Some Tests do come on increasing volume. We could also see a Shake Out or a gap down Shake Out. Both of these would be bullish.

If the market does something else, then I will adjust my thinking. What I think the market should be doing, is always trumped by what the market is doing.

Let the discussion commence.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #25,364
  • Apr 12, 2014 5:30pm Apr 12, 2014 5:30pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Let the discussion commence. {image}
HG I would take you up on this but then it would be nothing more than you and I having a 2 way conversation with no one else partaking. Doesn't appear that this thread has enough interest anymore even with the few recent posts no real conversation or learning has been sparked so...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,365
  • Apr 13, 2014 1:43am Apr 13, 2014 1:43am
HG,

thanks for great posts. Thanks all you guys who posted here in this thread. It helped me a lot.

Regarding EU situation I would suggest that we are somewhere in the middle of a bigger process. Buying on down bar with great volume gave immediate result as price lifted considerably. But if we were through accumulation process on 240 min we would see trading range first. Composite operator would buy dips (bigger amounts) and sell rallies(smaller amounts) in order to persuade weak holders to liquidate their positions. Why in this case Smart Money didn’t hide their efforts (with exception of buying on down bars)? Because it was part of process which started a bit earlier. If we zoom out our chart a bit we see that we are in a trading range between 1.3917 and 1.3707. On 6th of March we had great up bar with UHV. As a result price went back to 1.3707 and lifted again to where we are now. It shows us activity of Composite Operator who either started distributing its holdings or re-accumulating them. What I would suggest to pay attention to right now? On 19th of March we had big down bar with high volume which was selling bar. On the way up it took us 12 bars to cover the same distance as one selling bar did. So for the time being situation for me is slightly more bearish than bullish. I would take a look at further activity of Smart Money on the upper border of the trading range.
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  • #25,366
  • Apr 13, 2014 4:07am Apr 13, 2014 4:07am
HiddenGap & pres78 thanks your explanations, really didactics, keep it up. Thanks
Newbie trader
  • #25,367
  • Apr 13, 2014 6:58am Apr 13, 2014 6:58am
Quoting pres78
{quote} HG I would take you up on this but then it would be nothing more than you and I having a 2 way conversation with no one else partaking. Doesn't appear that this thread has enough interest anymore even with the few recent posts no real conversation or learning has been sparked so...

Hi pres78 and HiddenGap,

Even though people are not consistently writing comments or asking questions all the time, that doesn't mean that this thread is not any longer interesting. In contrary people are still following you in my mind. This is my first posting here and so far I have learned quite a lot from this thread amongst other couple of valuable threads. In this regard, please do not take this as a ''dia-logue'' only between you two, but an interactive platform wherever people put their questions whenever they feel necessity. Most of the questions coming to people's mind are often the same so they prefer to keep following you and not interventing the tread every single time. I highly appreciate you both and thank you sincerely.

Bardayson
  • #25,368
  • Apr 13, 2014 10:43am Apr 13, 2014 10:43am
[quote=HiddenGap;7401648]Hello ladies and gentlemen, let's talk the Euro. Check out the chart below. The first thing to note is that the current trend is UP. Before looking forward, we need to look back. Take a look at the cause of the current up trend. Technically, the cause of the up trend is an accumulation phase. In this case , the start of the accumulation phase was the Climatic Action bar. But the really key bar is the Stopping volume bar. Notice the amount of volume on that bar. Now's a good time to go back to VSA 101 and state, " When strength appears, it usually appe

Good day hidden gap...am going to contribute, but pardon me if i still not as good as you are........but before then...........this to pres 78........i think most people do not come in here anymore or fr some of us that still come in here which we only check the thread after a couple of days.its as a result of the way the thread has been quiet over a very long time.............but i think if you and hiddengap just could stay and do things like this it would help the thread...just my toughts.........and before i give a go.........i remember malcolm and a lot others in here discouraged 4hr chart.....anway.so this is what i think of the chart......firstly...i wld not be thinking to much of a buy yet for two reasons
1) there is a top right above current price.............and not until its broken...............woud i think to go long......
2) The NS that was formed happened at the last 4 hr of the week............which could be as a result of slowed down activity......for the week.......and the smart money still not sure of what they want to do.so they leave it to next week............and not because they are testing for supply......
This is my little understanding of the euro 4hr chart.....................
  • #25,369
  • Apr 13, 2014 11:42am Apr 13, 2014 11:42am
Posting a little analysis on the USDJPY

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  • #25,370
  • Apr 13, 2014 2:30pm Apr 13, 2014 2:30pm
Pres78,

Your posts are a huge help to understand market behaviours. I learn what, where and when to look for specific conditions before trigging an entry.

It takes time to study this thread and demo trading is time consuming. I personally do not want to clutter this thread by asking questions which might have been answered in previous old posts.

I wonder if there is anybody who is trading full time in this thread. In case there is one, i would suggest to interact one hour on daiy basis to discuss the setups live.

Quoting pres78
{quote} Much of this topic with respect to trend, retracements and background can vary from trader to trader based on the following; TF traded Risk appetite Trade Plan An uptrend versus retrace and SOW versus SOS varies greatly in the perspective between a scalper who trades say 1 and 5 min charts and a guy that trades 1 and 4 hour charts. EU Daily and Weekly chart we have been clearly trending upward since the low of July 2012 but for someone trading a 5min or 15min chart does that really matter. There are smaller trends within the bigger trends...
  • #25,371
  • Apr 13, 2014 6:20pm Apr 13, 2014 6:20pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Hello ladies and gentlemen, let's talk the Euro... or a gap down Shake Out.
Well the markets opened with a 40+ pip gap down. Will this play out as a SOS or a SOW? Time will tell...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,372
  • Apr 13, 2014 8:11pm Apr 13, 2014 8:11pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Hello ladies and gentlemen, let's talk the Euro. Check out the chart below. The first thing to note is that the current trend is UP. Before looking forward, we need to look back. Take a look at the cause of the current up trend. Technically, the cause of the up trend is an accumulation phase. In this case , the start of the accumulation phase was the Climatic Action bar. But the really key bar is the Stopping volume bar. Notice the amount of volume on that bar. Now's a good time to go back to VSA 101 and state, " When strength appears, it usually...
Good to see you back HG. Missed your insightful posts. Trade on!
  • #25,373
  • Apr 14, 2014 4:35am Apr 14, 2014 4:35am
I'd like to post some charts regarding what i'm up to these days but it's not really VSA any more. Come to think of it, it hasn't been for quite a long time. It's a bastardised cross of PnF, VZA and VSA! It'll probably create more questions than help anyone who's on a VSA journey.

But, to try and further any discussion on HGs chart, here's a 1hr EU. This follows up on what Pres was saying about the zones last week. We're breaking through the low of an UHV zone from the 19th March and in the process coming up to the high of an UHV zone from the 3rd Apr. The market has already moved through this area once and paid attention to the zones as shown in the yellow box. It then pushed up through the low of the green zone on high volume, absorbing whatever selling was left at this price area. It'll be interesting to see how the market reacts in and around this no mans land.
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  • #25,374
  • Apr 14, 2014 8:31am Apr 14, 2014 8:31am
First of all special thanks to Pres78 , HiddenGap and others to really giving us time. i am not good on VSA. just started learning it so seeking for help. you please check and guide me..
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Think Twice Low Volume is Key to Success
  • #25,375
  • Apr 14, 2014 10:04am Apr 14, 2014 10:04am
Quoting classix
First of all special thanks to Pres78 , HiddenGap and others to really giving us time. i am not good on VSA. just started learning it so seeking for help. you please check and guide me.. {image}
I will reply when I get home and have access to my MT4 station. Only using my phone today so I can't offer a response of any value until later. Will put together a response after unless someone else beats me to the punch.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,376
  • Apr 14, 2014 1:22pm Apr 14, 2014 1:22pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
I'd like to post some charts regarding what i'm up to these days but it's not really VSA any more. Come to think of it, it hasn't been for quite a long time. It's a bastardised cross of PnF, VZA and VSA! It'll probably create more questions than help anyone who's on a VSA journey. But, to try and further any discussion on HGs chart, here's a 1hr EU. This follows up on what Pres was saying about the zones last week. We're breaking through the low of an UHV zone from the 19th March and in the process coming up to the high of an UHV zone from the...
Yep and as we see price found support (even if temporary) just above the high of that April 3rd 1hr zone which just so happens to be the low of the April 9th UWRB zone (UHV volume by comparison but not so high when compared to the March 19th, April 3rd and April 4th zones). Volume at volume anyone!
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,377
  • Apr 14, 2014 2:49pm Apr 14, 2014 2:49pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Hello ladies and gentlemen, let's talk the Euro. Check out the chart below. The first thing to note is that the current trend is UP. Before looking forward, we need to look back. Take a look at the cause of the current up trend. Technically, the cause of the up trend is an accumulation phase. In this case , the start of the accumulation phase was the Climatic Action bar. But the really key bar is the Stopping volume bar. Notice the amount of volume on that bar. Now's a good time to go back to VSA 101 and state, " When strength appears, it usually...
You don't use vsa with amt anymore?
  • #25,378
  • Apr 14, 2014 6:40pm Apr 14, 2014 6:40pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} I will reply when I get home and have access to my MT4 station. Only using my phone today so I can't offer a response of any value until later. Will put together a response after unless someone else beats me to the punch.
OK so I see no one else jumped in so...

First off let me ask a few questions if I may. What made you enter at the point you did? What about that price at that point in time made a buy attractive to you?

Now before moving onto why a buy for me at that price was not in the cards I will answer the second question. Is that stopping volume. Yes as price did stop falling and climbed up 17ish pips from the days low put in on the very next bar. The bar was UHV volume and the highest 5 min volume seen since April 9th. Now mind you there was no major buying seen but it was enough activity to stop the fall for the day.

54 pip range today, now I remember why I hate trading EURUSD. I have spent most of my time as of late trading pairs with at least a 100 pip ADR. That has knocked EU,AU,GU and UJ off my trade radar all together although I still watch them as they can lead the way for some of the crosses that I trade. I also trade gold and my old beauty Oil and a little ES now and then... however I am off topic and so I digress...

EURUSD today, 5 min chart. First off since LO we had seen selling. When your trade was taken we were sitting just before NYO. So thus far trend for the day was down with no real climatic action showing buyers stepping in. First chart I will post is a fully zoomed out 5 min chart on which I can see half of last Monday and all of Tuesday to Friday. What I am looking for here is recent UHV spikes. Now similar to a previous post I wrote using 15 min charts I would have to look further left in order to find controlling zones overhead but for the purpose of this post and because we know price went down I will not look any further left. 60 day ADR on EURUSD is around 75 pips so I know before action today started that I would most likely spend the day stuck between 3900 and 3800. As we can see there are a few obvious spikes so from this I will add some zones to watch during Monday trading.

First yellow line zone in inside the second yellow line with is even higher volume. The low of the second yellow line zone is around the 3800 level. The next 2 yellow lines are UHV when compared to the rest of the bars for that day so they represent the highest activity bars for Thursday and Friday. For the purpose of this I am not going to focus on Monday and Tuesday as those zones are below 3800 and as we know we did not get there today.

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Next chart with the 3 zones drawn on. White zone is the highest volume bar and a WRB from Apr 9th. Yellow zone is Thursday and Blue zone is Friday.

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Last chart is zoomed in showing today's PA. As we can see Thursday and Friday zones shown two levels with the mid of Friday the same as the high from Thursday and the low of Friday lining up with the Thursday mid. Red lines are LO and NYO. The red arrow is you entry bar. So as we can see we opened gap down inside the lower white zone. LO we see a move up which ends up being a famous LO fake out as price spikes up into the shared zones above where sellers are found and down we go. There was a nice ND just above the zone high at 3847 but for a safer entry we see a 2BR right into the 3847 level from below.

Now at the point when your entry bar printed we were really close to NYO and as of yet had seen some increased activity there was nothing mind blowing so we should wait for NYO. NYO comes and we get that UHV push down but then from that point forward the rest of the day was a snooze fest. Now you could have made a few scalp pips each way trading the H to L of that 5 min UHV zone from today if you dropped down to a 1 min chart.

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Note that the high of today's zone when drawn on is lined up nicely with the 50% level of that white fib zone from Apr 9th. That adds to power of 3825 as it is a shared level and we are now is the lower half of that WRB zone but still above 3800.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.

All in all a pretty dull day of the EURUSD.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,379
  • Apr 15, 2014 7:31am Apr 15, 2014 7:31am
@Pres78
Sir thanks.. you posted helpful information more than my expectations.
my reason to buy that i checked strength in background.. and on next was looking for test or no supply. to me at that point it was a no supply bar so i entered.. other reason for entering was opening of that day with gap.. so for me gap mostly get fill... not sure about it.. but that was all for that action...
it will be good if you put some basic check list or plan for new VSA traders like me before entering.. i will use them as diamonds for my charts.
feeling very late to " Never take a trade you don't understand! ".
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Think Twice Low Volume is Key to Success
  • #25,380
  • Apr 15, 2014 8:17am Apr 15, 2014 8:17am
Quoting classix
My reason to buy that i checked strength in background.. and on next was looking for test or no supply. to me at that point it was a no supply bar so i entered.. other reason for entering was opening of that day with gap.. so for me gap mostly get fill... not sure about it.. but that was all for that action...

It will be good if you put some basic check list or plan for new VSA traders like me before entering.. i will use them as diamonds for my charts.

Feeling very late to " Never take a trade you don't understand! "
Classix,

I appreciate that you took the time to firstly post a chart (especially of a failed trade) but secondly step to the plate and explain why you took the trade. I am a big believer that we learn more and grow more from our failed trades than we do from our winners.

To your point #1 above as I noted while there we increased activity before your entry there was nothing that could be considered UHV that really stands out. Also there was not enough signs of buyers yet. Some new VSA'ers get sucked into the whole strength appears on downbars, weakness on upbars mantra and take it as gospel. While it is true it is not so cut and dry. Every increased volume downbar closing off it's low may contain buyers but are they SM buyers or are they not SM buyers. Absorbtion of buy orders by the SM can and does look very much the same as "hidden buying" SOS. The key as always is the result from the effort / volume / increased activity. One way to filter out getting stuck in a bad trade is to wait for clear sign of buying and I mean actual progress upwards and get in on a retrace while the SM are reloading longs. You may miss some moves completely and you may get in at a price higher up than you would like but you help ensure that you are trading the results of the volume rather than the volume itself. As you get more comfortable reading the charts you can refine this process to start getting in much lower (or higher) in the moves for the best possible prices with the lowest risk. Remember also that trading VSA we are not breakout or GAP traders. While breakouts of key levels can offer re-test entries and GAPS can offer clues to SM behaviors they are not something to be blindly traded. That is what the herd does and we are not here to side with them. We want to ride the SM coat tails and in turn be part of the herd slaughter from the right side of the business.

Our wins should come at the expense of the herds losses.

I might be able to put together a basic trade checklist for the VSA newbies to try and follow. It won't be how I trade but it may help a few get their feet wet.

As for your last comment don't feel ashamed by this loss or any other loss as long as you are able to learn and grow from it. I do stand by my long standing signature but more from the point of view of not going long or short because someone on a forum or signal service said so. If you dont know why a trade is being taken then you have no place taking it. Taking bad or failed trades based on your own plan or analysis is far different.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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