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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #14,021
  • Apr 9, 2014 4:18am Apr 9, 2014 4:18am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Maximinus, hope you are fine as well Nice to see you trying EW When you start with EW, do not think about counting the waves on 5min chart or so. Start with the daily and weekly chart in order to get the idea where we are in the bigger scheme. As a starter for UC: the low at 0,8698 I do see as the most likely end of a corrective move down the low at 0,7066 I see as the most likely end of a decades long down-trend Can you make a count out of this?


I'm blind to see the big moves and waves.
Anyway below is my guess following your guidance ie 0.7066 is the start of a new count and 0.8698 is the end of a correction. That tells me that we finished the wave 4 and we are in a correction phase before starting the final bull wave 5. Am I in the correct direction, if yes, I'll deepen the count and the studies.

Charts : my count from 1 to 3.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: ew1.jpg Size: 58 KB
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #14,022
  • Apr 9, 2014 4:23am Apr 9, 2014 4:23am
Arggh no... My count is erroneous. Wave 4 can't overlap wave 1. My bad. I'll recount.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #14,023
  • Apr 9, 2014 5:35am Apr 9, 2014 5:35am
Technicals say we should see break higher soon, 1.3840 as a sure thing,......but we have FOMC report later, question is how far can it goes before report, if 1.3805 fails to be broken higher FOMC will push to 1.3740.

Meanwhile tensions in Ukraine going higher, i am buying demand areas on gold in this up trend.
  • #14,024
  • Apr 9, 2014 10:09am Apr 9, 2014 10:09am
2014.04.09 16:00:16.679 Murrey Math ea EURUSD.,H1: Sell Signal @1.38260 SS:87 FS:100 Band[2]:7 Band[1]:12

...

Will not short ... but will use the signal to take profit of my longs
  • #14,025
  • Apr 9, 2014 10:10am Apr 9, 2014 10:10am
Quoting rbetancor
2014.04.09 16:00:16.679 Murrey Math ea EURUSD.,H1: Sell Signal @1.38260 SS:87 FS:100 Band[2]:7 Band[1]:12 ... Will not short ... but will use the signal to take profit of my longs
Moreover takking into account that 1.3816-1.3836 it's EW exaustion zone
  • #14,026
  • Apr 9, 2014 10:12am Apr 9, 2014 10:12am
Quoting rbetancor
2014.04.09 16:00:16.679 Murrey Math ea EURUSD.,H1: Sell Signal @1.38260 SS:87 FS:100 Band[2]:7 Band[1]:12 ... Will not short ... but will use the signal to take profit of my longs
Well ... could not resist ... XDD ...

short EU @1.38216 SL: 1.3855 TG 1.3740

Over 1.3740 will see if we are at the lows on one of my indies @ 240Min graph ... and take action acording to that.
  • #14,027
  • Apr 9, 2014 12:00pm Apr 9, 2014 12:00pm
Quoting rbetancor
{quote} Well ... could not resist ... XDD ... short EU @1.38216 SL: 1.3855 TG 1.3740 Over 1.3740 will see if we are at the lows on one of my indies @ 240Min graph ... and take action acording to that.
Took partials @ 1.38065, SL moved to BE+5 ... I know will be taken out ...
  • #14,028
  • Apr 9, 2014 1:22pm Apr 9, 2014 1:22pm
FOMC report was somehow bearish...damn expected some bull drive on dollar. Well looks like dollar down day tomorrow, possible nice trends up on GU, EU, AU.
Placed EU long 1.3809 if we return back, gona be only looking for longs.
  • #14,029
  • Apr 9, 2014 1:35pm Apr 9, 2014 1:35pm
Scalp intraday short ... 1.38495 SL 1.3863 TG 1.3740
  • #14,030
  • Apr 10, 2014 2:07am Apr 10, 2014 2:07am
Quoting rbetancor
Scalp intraday short ... 1.38495 SL 1.3863 TG 1.3740
Got burned ... not a problem

Today's targets ... extension to 1.3914-1.3934 ... and hope a 3W pullback to around 1.38-1.3740
  • #14,031
  • Apr 10, 2014 10:20am Apr 10, 2014 10:20am
Woah UJ and GJ are preaparing for some serious drop, also further drop on UCHF signaling dollar weakening further tomorrow and possibly next week. EU is gona breach 1.40 that soon that ECB will wish they had cut rates already and pushed that beast into abyss.

Holding NU short 0.8706.

Pending GCFH short 1.4720

Had pause trading today but looks like very nice setups on all pairs.
  • #14,032
  • Apr 10, 2014 11:27am Apr 10, 2014 11:27am
Quoting janpec1000
Woah UJ and GJ are preaparing for some serious drop, also further drop on UCHF signaling dollar weakening further tomorrow and possibly next week. EU is gona breach 1.40 that soon that ECB will wish they had cut rates already and pushed that beast into abyss. Holding NU short 0.8706. Pending GCFH short 1.4720 Had pause trading today but looks like very nice setups on all pairs.
Closed NU +5. Waiting for demand to kick in, plus this snail is not worth my chart time.
  • #14,033
  • Apr 11, 2014 3:37am Apr 11, 2014 3:37am
US index ready for another drop on consolidation.
http://prntscr.com/38xp8i

Small gold short:
http://prntscr.com/38xppi

Dollar bust or war, article suggest first but if you really look how globalist try to defend dollar over past 40 years trough countless wars or revolutions everywhere its really illusion to not expect second.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...-or-end-dollar
  • #14,034
  • Apr 11, 2014 6:29am Apr 11, 2014 6:29am
Quoting janpec1000
US index ready for another drop on consolidation. http://prntscr.com/38xp8i Small gold short: http://prntscr.com/38xppi Dollar bust or war, article suggest first but if you really look how globalist try to defend dollar over past 40 years trough countless wars or revolutions everywhere its really illusion to not expect second. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...-or-end-dollar
Gold hit TP, so did UCAD long +25, AJ short (exited too early +10, droped 30 after), GN long -5 atm, considering placing TP on BE. EU short +3 so far (1.3880), it should bounce and then i will short again on 1.3880.

And also like i said yesterday JPYs starting droping, waiting for current demand area to get broken on EJ to start shorting UJ, GJ , EJ, but need bit more confrimation. Having only pending short GJ 169.990 atm.
  • #14,035
  • Apr 12, 2014 5:43am Apr 12, 2014 5:43am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Technically we are about to be at 3875.

Hi, fellow-traders

My technical thoughts of the following EUR/USD movements are as follows.

The major trend is still up.

We now have prices at the area of the 39037 high that is the 78,6% Fibo retracement of the last 4H downward swing from 39666 to 36725.

If the price is fixed above the 3915-3925 area in the forthcoming two-three days, we shall be testing the 3960-3975 area, forming the double-top at this area, or we can go even higher. However the EURO is overbought much and these prices are not comfortable for the EURO economics, so the 3975-4000 area could be the top.

On the other hand, we see 78,6% Fibo retracement, and the current prices could be tested at the 3916 area with the downward movement in the end. It give us the movement to the 3750 area at least.

P.S. Does anybody know where Infinitus is? His pictures could be helpful for the whole analysis.
Hunting High and Low
  • #14,036
  • Apr 12, 2014 7:46am Apr 12, 2014 7:46am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Hi, fellow-traders My technical thoughts of the following EUR/USD movements are as follows. The major trend is still up. We now have prices at the area of the 39037 high that is the 78,6% Fibo retracement of the last 4H downward swing from 39666 to 36725. If the price is fixed above the 3915-3925 area in the forthcoming two-three days, we shall be testing the 3960-3975 area, forming the double-top at this area, or we can go even higher. However the EURO is overbought much and these prices are not comfortable for the EURO economics, so the...
Test of 1.3940 is a sure thing. Since that supply area is no longer fresh rebound wont be strong, but it will probably bounce there for day or two. Then we go to 1.3905 and push towards 1.40. But forget EU, real profits will be made in gold and XAUD pairs. Eyes on AUDUSD, break of 0.942 will tank EA and GA, and if there is no break then no trades for me for few days until there is daily chart short on either of them.
  • #14,037
  • Apr 12, 2014 9:58am Apr 12, 2014 9:58am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} But forget EU, real profits will be made in gold and XAUD pairs.

I do not trade Gold, I make 2-3 % per day in EU, that is enough. But thanks.
Hunting High and Low
  • #14,038
  • Apr 12, 2014 11:58am Apr 12, 2014 11:58am
Quoting andexQ
This is interesting.. Last week S&P500 has reached important if not critical new high. Before that new high it preluded with exhaustion of demand and then followed with bulk of supply, after that high (currently) it then followed with bulk of supply again. It makes me think that we are starting to enter distribution phase... am I correct ? - Blue-line : new high. - Orange-lines : exhaustion of demand. - Yellow-rectangles : bulk of supply. S&P500 Weekly & Daily chart : {image}

Hmmm,
I'm not sure how current situation in equity market exactly will affecting FX market or vice versa (for example EU & USD) but for gold & silver technically bullish.

Nevertheless, I think it is worth to take it to consideration :

Current situation in wallstreet/equity market indicate that even though FED try to avoid downward movement (1st attempt failed), it 's clear that the majority of big player on wallsteet are Bears who want to finish their job first.

At best it will continue sideway with large swing.... at worst like PT said:
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} {image}
,
  • #14,039
  • Apr 12, 2014 12:01pm Apr 12, 2014 12:01pm
Added, from Wallstreet :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,040
  • Apr 13, 2014 3:31am Apr 13, 2014 3:31am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} I do not trade Gold, I make 2-3 % per day in EU, that is enough. But thanks.
2% per day on EU is very nice considering how shitty it is most of time comparing to some other pairs hehe.

Ukraine unrest going into next stage like planned days before, didnt had time to put another gold long in should go higher on open. Ukraine is calling for NATO response as expected...

Next week i am doing revision of my current system so need plenty trades to see what should be improved / removed.
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