Release the hounds

Good Afternoon Ladies and Gentlemen,

I welcome you to my thread with open arms and an open mind.

Here I will post what setups I am looking at on various currency pairs, including Silver and Gold, for myself as a log of my trades and a way to critique mistakes and reuse good decisions.

I use a simple system to trade with using a variety of different methods :-

Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Targets
Fibonnacci Continuation Patterns
Gartley
Simple Support and Resistance.
Momentum + Manipulation

The only indicator I use is 100 SMA and I wouldnt even call that an indicator as you can work that out on a calculator if you have the time, anyway I digress.

I choose to trade on H1/H4 charts using M15 for specific entry locations dependent on the setup.

Here I attempt to cut out much of the noise and false patterns that traders get swallowed up by (including myself in the past) and I hope you can enjoy what I post and feel free to add your opinion where you see fit.

But first let me tell you why I choose to ignore much fundamental news in my strategy......

Fundamental News for me is a sticky subject that I choose not to get very much involved in. For a number of reasons....

1 . I have not one idea what they hell they mean.

2 . I believe that news is already priced in before a news release.

I believe, in fact I know that the effects of the news are pretty much priced in weeks before the news is offcially released, BIG players ie banks need time to accumulate a position in the direction they want it to go, and you would be silly to think that none of those big bankers in the world knows the outcome weeks before.

For example, the minutes from tomorrows FOCM meeting are from March 18th .... thats 3 weeks for a bank to accumulate a position.

Hence why I choose to take no notice.

Also, on many occasions I have found that the swings cause by an influx of retail orders during a news release, more often than not, settles in the direction of the technical bias anyway....... and you know why.... because the BIG players are already positioned.

In this journal I try to trade with such a mentality, and trade with the Bankers, not against them.

Anybody on the XAG/XAU Thread will already know my view on Silver but for the sake of my Journal and people asking my long term view and to see my chart then I shall post it here.

SILVER/GBP

I am firm Long term Bull on this pair for the next 3 weeks.

Price has broken out of the downward daily trendline, and failed to go lower at 11.50 firmly putting in new daily Highs at 13.30 within two weeks. Showing EXCELLENT buying interest by market movers and the general market. I see this as a BUY SIGNAL on the LONG TERM.

Look at my Daily Chart, following the push to 13.30, price has retraced back to £11.80! And buy using my Fibonacci tool, I am able to find areas of support. Price has stalled at the 86% retracement area and I would say that this is an excellent buying zone.

Also, you can see that over the last week or so, we have broken the nearly horizontal upward trendline but struggle to go lower. I am calling a false breakout here and price WILL reverse in my view. Many retail sellers in the market here and BIG market movers can use the influx of sell orders to trade against and manipulate the price higher.

Also a very nice continuation pattern in YELLOW, this is Bullish all month long.



I can see Silver at £14.00 by May. That is a 20000 pip target with the correct entry.

I am currently Long from £12.07 targeting £14.00 so my entry I believe to be sufficient on the Long Term for money management purposes.

Also, please look at my chart below, this is the area where price is trying to push off that upwards line on the daily.

I can see manipulation which has taken place at £11.77.

By manipulation, I mean many traders already LONG before hand would place their stops below the most recent low at £11.78. When triggered traders would have to sell their contracts which large players would quickly buy up forcing the price to go higher.

This has caused a new uptrend in my eyes. Which has been confirmed with the first wave upwards using Fibonacci as priced formed both new H1 & H4 Highs.

£11.89 looks to be an area that may hold some buying interest but i dont see price dipping any lower for the time being at least.

nice starting dude. can you elaborate that trade with the Bankers, not against them.

Great analysis, Mr. Burns, I've been holding long for more than a wk now, good to know that. And I'm with U.

Ok no problem.

Its simple economics that many traders including myself overlook when starting out. They think its red, im selling, or its green im buying.

The Big players, ie people who have lots of money to buy lots of contracts (hence moving the price) need a lot of contracts available on the market in order to buy them. So to do this they accumulate a position in little pieces, which causes what you would call on a chart, consolidation.

For example, In areas of interest to them they move the price in such a way to confuse small traders into thinking its going down shall we say, so hence many newbie retail traders sell. BUT what happens is the large players buy up all of those contracts very quickly which moves the price in the opposite way, in the direction THEY want.

Exactly what Nathan Rothschild did at the end of the Napoleonic Wars. Pretty much the same thing but on a small scale. It was 200 years ago but the same principal applies.

Much Appreciated, I have agreed with much of your analysis too. I hope your holding EJ Short ... I will get to that a bit later

Learning to hold them through the consolidation comes with time, i see you have mastered it mate

Ok, so Im very fairly confused about this morning. All the signs where there, but i suppose the market spooked me today, keeping my head up

Looks like price is headed to take the stops below the last two weeks worth of price action. Ive averaged down @ 11.83. Risky strategy I know, however I believe in my long term view and 11.75/11.80 is sat right on the Daily 86% retracement which has not been tested yet. Maybe we will see the rush here?

Oosh im Sweaty, Im dying to see how this eventually plays out.

OK so this morning I am a happy man.

Following yesterdays choppy price action, we have now reversed at the 86% retracement level (D1).

I initially placed my LONG entry @ 12.07 on friday which was a sloppy entry.

Price fell yesterday to £11.75. SO I closed a quarter of my position at £12.07 and then I averaged down a LONG position @ £11.83, and then stacked more LONG positions every 200 pips on the way back up between £11.83 - £12.07

Added longs at 11.83,11.85,11.87,11.89,11.91, and so on....





Now holding these for the next few weeks to my target of £14.00.

I stayed confident and it paid off. I now have a larger total position at a better price.





If you take a look at my Daily Chart, Im looking for the highlighted candle (ie today) to close engulfing yesterdays candle and also shows what im looking for in terms of price action.

Good one on XAGUSD, Mr. Burns. That was the deepest retracement I've everseen, feel like it anyway. Lucky I wasn't home, I would have taken it out.
It's all sailing.

Averageing down on my position was a good move i guess. I could only see the £11.80 as a good price rather than expensive, stacking my extra margin as longs on the way back up covered the quarter position loss i took on the £12.07 entry. I was sweating but i think i managed it well.

Its good feeling to have the same bias as somebody consistent like yourself mate, there are many Bears out there who arent being told any different. Im probably going to manage it up to £14 and try and take some swings so may go flat on positions a few times to stack better prices off smaller time frames, we will see.

anyway mate thanks for taking an interest in what im trying to achieve

As I said above I am already LONG at a total position now of 12.07 as I closed my £11.83 Long and the stacked lots which recouped my losses. But currently sit about 1100 pips in the red on my total position at the moment.

I am confident that now we are in an UP TREND.

The stop run at the 86% retracement on the daily showed great conviction and pushed new highs on an hourly timescale now showing a 61.8 retarcement.

The highlighted area in yellow is a definite BUY signal now and I would be buying here if I had not already opened my LONG previously, I see £12.40 by mid week.



I am stacking LONG positions again on the way up from £12.02 every 200 pips which you can see on my trade account with FX TRADE below... the squares are Limit BUYS and the Arrows are current open LONG positions. I am looking for a small term target of £12.40 and I will look to close my positions for profit and wait for another entry on a H4 timeframe.

Annoying slow price action this morning, i want this to move at least jesus christ