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Oil and Natural Gas

  • #541
  • Apr 8, 2014 3:50pm Apr 8, 2014 3:50pm
Quoting Monkeybuss
I have turned my interest to Natural Gas after some failures with GOLD, I cannot help it but it seems to me that whatever news that comes out, has nothing to do with price movements of Natural Gas. I believe that the price movements form the news. For example, Investing.com keeps talking about mild weather, which I think is suggesting seasonal trading. This would mean that as it gets hotter, the price of Nat Gas decreases, which is a lets say 90% correlation. In short, I do not think that weather has such impact on the price of Nat Gas. Also, if...
The weather does have an impact; of course it does. The impact of the weather will be proportional to how extreme the weather is. There is such a thing as Heating Degree Days - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heating_degree_day - which analysts use as inputs to their (probably quite complex) NG usage models. Hence the recent spell of very cold weather pushed NG to above $6.

As far as NG trading goes, you should be aware in case you're not already that a) they call it the widowmaker and b) they call it the widowmaker.
At the moment bulls reckon that even though record injections may manifest themselves during the injection season, they won't be enough to replenish supplies.
The bears are sceptical, see the whole thing as just another ruse by Goldman Sachs et al to squeeze energy prices beyond the fundamentals and fleece the consumer, and reckon record injections are coming, and that they will be enough to replenish depleted supplies.
Trying to trade NG on a 15 min basis is asking for trouble IMO but if it works for you, great.
You also need to be aware of when NG is in contango and when it is backwardated. Generally you should be disposed to longs when it's in backwardation and to shorts when it's in contango but if you're scalping based on 15 minute candles I don't suppose it makes that much difference.
There's lots of stuff, weekly rig counts, depletion rates, how quickly capped wells can be brought back on stream, coal as a competing source, etc. etc. but in the end really I don't have much of a clue myself and it would take forever to try to model all of this but that hasn't stopped me speculating. So far it's working but it always works until it doesn't.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #542
  • Apr 8, 2014 5:43pm Apr 8, 2014 5:43pm
impressing move with oil, it makes me think market most of the time does not move fundamentally but technically, today i wiped with oil the whole last week account earnings,

after negative IMF global economy report oil started trending down, i shorted very big, it started going downside tp 99.20 but in 3 minutes oil spiked up like a beast to 101.50, i let it run about 120 pips against me, then i exited at 102.20 area with a big loss since it was a big short.

lesson 1 : "never go against an oil trend", wait for some bearish candles, and always always use a stop loss cause this monster could kill your account in no time.

lesson 2 : fundamentally oil should have gone down to $99 area but technically it was ready for a move beyound $102 and it did it.

lesson 3 : learn from the losses and feel the pain.
  • #543
  • Apr 9, 2014 11:55am Apr 9, 2014 11:55am
Quoting acidguy
impressing move with oil, it makes me think market most of the time does not move fundamentally but technically, today i wiped with oil the whole last week account earnings, after negative IMF global economy report oil started trending down, i shorted very big, it started going downside tp 99.20 but in 3 minutes oil spiked up like a beast to 101.50, i let it run about 120 pips against me, then i exited at 102.20 area with a big loss since it was a big short. lesson 1 : "never go against an oil trend", wait for some bearish candles, and always always...
Yep, i'm also short oil, not nice to be in that side of the trade. AFAIK the only reason i can see oil so high is that risk of low inflation is scaring someone big and he is bidding on oil (FED, Banks or someone). Might be me short thinking stupid things
  • #544
  • Apr 9, 2014 11:58am Apr 9, 2014 11:58am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} I'm like u holding breathe to see how far up it goes - should reverse anytime now. If it's not more than 80~85% retracement, it's worth holding on to yr shorts, i mean your short entries. {image}
That graph looks more like it
  • #545
  • Apr 9, 2014 12:49pm Apr 9, 2014 12:49pm
Quoting gnomoneey
{quote} before this will hit here's a few trades in the meantime complete bullish gartley 98.2 then ab=cd 103.60 then bullish crab 82.56 or ab=cd at 83.6 let's see if any of these come to life in that order......
Time to short
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #546
  • Apr 9, 2014 1:20pm Apr 9, 2014 1:20pm
Quoting gnomoneey
{quote} Time to short
hopefully now it will fall.
  • #547
  • Apr 9, 2014 1:33pm Apr 9, 2014 1:33pm
Quoting MetroFX
{quote} hopefully now it will fall.
It's within spitting distance of recent highs at circa 104.5 and I'd be surprised if they are not tested.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #548
  • Apr 9, 2014 2:10pm Apr 9, 2014 2:10pm
amazing the strenght of oil, not following the path of gold, silver and other commodities.
there is not any news that support the current PA and still keep rising,
  • #549
  • Apr 9, 2014 2:25pm Apr 9, 2014 2:25pm
Quoting acidguy
amazing the strenght of oil, not following the path of gold, silver and other commodities. there is not any news that support the current PA and still keep rising,
I used to think that markets work like that.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #550
  • Apr 9, 2014 2:32pm Apr 9, 2014 2:32pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I used to think that markets work like that.

But there is news its only in the background.

Ukraine
Fire in some depot somewhere
weakening $

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #551
  • Apr 9, 2014 2:50pm Apr 9, 2014 2:50pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} But there is news its only in the background. Ukraine Fire in some depot somewhere weakening $ Olu
Hi Olu
Yes of course there is news but the question is, can you use it to trade with? And the answer is, mostly, in my opinion, no.
What we all underestimate is what we don't know and conversely we overestimate what we do know. Frankly most of the liquidity on these futures markets comes from oil traders working for the behemoths who are actually in the industry (BP, XOM etc plus all the gazillions of other guys working in ancilliary companies that most of us haven't heard of). They know soooo much that we don't know - we're at a huge informational disadvantage. You can pick up snippets of salient stuff if you subscribe to a decent paid service, but even then, do you know enough? Even if you knew everything, do you know that there's a bunch of guys at Hedgie A trying to push commodity XYZ higher because they know there's another bunch of guys at Hedgie B who are massively short XYZ and caught with their pants down on the wrong side of the market e.g. what happened with NatGas earlier this year or Amaranth some years back?

Only price pays. You gotta assume you know jack shit when you're trading stuff like oil. If you expect it to make sense of what you've read in the news, then you're basically on a wing and a prayer.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #552
  • Apr 9, 2014 3:25pm Apr 9, 2014 3:25pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Only price pays. You gotta assume you know jack shit when you're trading stuff like oil. ...
So true Boy Wonder. I tend to use price only but cant ignore any glaring fundamentals. However my price only beliefs did not help me with the 4 - 2 drubbing I have taken from trading oil recently.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #553
  • Apr 9, 2014 3:53pm Apr 9, 2014 3:53pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} So true Boy Wonder. I tend to use price only but cant ignore any glaring fundamentals. However my price only beliefs did not help me with the 4 - 2 drubbing I have taken from trading oil recently. Olu
Sorry to hear that mate Oil always is a bitch to short, I remember some guy saying never short oil, just don't. Of course, we know better
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #554
  • Apr 9, 2014 8:55pm Apr 9, 2014 8:55pm
Quoting MetroFX
{quote} That graph looks more like it
I just got up, and you are right. Are you still holding?
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #555
  • Edited 9:46pm Apr 9, 2014 9:00pm | Edited 9:46pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Sorry to hear that mate Oil always is a bitch to short, I remember some guy saying never short oil, just don't. Of course, we know better
Understand.
If it has been a-b-c correction up till now, the comforting thought is that 'all corrections will be retraced eventually by the next wave of the same degree' or by the next down wave.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #556
  • Apr 9, 2014 10:04pm Apr 9, 2014 10:04pm
Quoting skyhok
{quote} I just got up, and you are right. Are you still holding?
Yes still holding, loosing thought
  • #557
  • Apr 10, 2014 2:24pm Apr 10, 2014 2:24pm
We can only hope
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  • #558
  • Apr 11, 2014 2:05pm Apr 11, 2014 2:05pm
Quoting MetroFX
We can only hope {image}
well, it spiked up to 104.50, then fell down fast again at 103.50 consolidation,
right now the market is not on good shape for a rally but Oil always impress us, right now in my opinion Oil is the hardest commodity to trade,

i still keep the shorts to $95 for the next 2 months, some experts like Michael Gurka call for $85 but that looks pretty hard to archieve, let see what happens
with crazy oil.
  • #559
  • Apr 11, 2014 8:40pm Apr 11, 2014 8:40pm
Quoting acidguy
{quote} well, it spiked up to 104.50, then fell down fast again at 103.50 consolidation, right now the market is not on good shape for a rally but Oil always impress us, right now in my opinion Oil is the hardest commodity to trade, i still keep the shorts to $95 for the next 2 months, some experts like Michael Gurka call for $85 but that looks pretty hard to archieve, let see what happens with crazy oil.
daily bearish gartley just completed at 103.58 cheers
  • #560
  • Apr 12, 2014 6:24am Apr 12, 2014 6:24am
This a very good short if we go below 103, IMO.
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Pecuniae obediunt omnia
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