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  • #61
  • Apr 10, 2014 10:26am Apr 10, 2014 10:26am
This is starting to shape up nicely too.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpyweekly jarroo sitm.png Size: 27 KB
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #62
  • Apr 10, 2014 3:11pm Apr 10, 2014 3:11pm
Quoting Donaciello
{quote} Are you watching this Al? GBP/USD has recently made a series of HCR's, which are being confirmed with PA as we speak. I too am looking for retracements, but I want to see them fail and subsequently turn PA. That being said, I'm looking for PA on G/U in the H4 or D1, but I think it'll be H4 on this one. Chart: {image} Take care, W.
Hey Donaciello, I think gbpusd is in traffic so i'll pass on that. Now concerning the audnzd pair this is my take on it. Looking at the consolidation on the left side of the buob I will take the trade if it closes above all the bar highs there but does not touch the next trouble area 1.0841 i've shown.

Al
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #63
  • Apr 10, 2014 3:20pm Apr 10, 2014 3:20pm
Quoting albus999
{quote} Hey Donaciello, I think gbpusd is in traffic so i'll pass on that. Now concerning the audnzd pair this is my take on it. Looking at the consolidation on the left side of the buob I will take the trade if it closes above all the bar highs there but does not touch the next trouble area 1.0841 i've shown. Al {image}
I'm with you exactly there Al, as I've given up on the sterling, since I see no momentum-follow-up after the chart I posted.

I've also prepared a setup entry for the AUD/NZD, about which I'll post shortly after NY closes.
It will be a somewhat special entry for me, because for the first time I'll be making a 'Small plan' as well as a 'Big plan' for this setup.
In short this means that I'll be using the 'take half of, let the rest run'-approach James16 himself has mentioned very often.

I'll go more in-depth on the strategic approach for this one, as I said, after NY closes.

Will be watching carefully!

W
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #64
  • Apr 10, 2014 3:35pm Apr 10, 2014 3:35pm
Quoting albus999
{quote} Hey Donaciello, I think gbpusd is in traffic so i'll pass on that. Now concerning the audnzd pair this is my take on it. Looking at the consolidation on the left side of the buob I will take the trade if it closes above all the bar highs there but does not touch the next trouble area 1.0841 i've shown. Al {image}
If it closes as i've said then I will enter on a retrace to the level with my FTA being the shown level. Oh And I don't use HCR and LCS levels in the traditional sense.
  • #65
  • Apr 10, 2014 3:38pm Apr 10, 2014 3:38pm
Quoting albus999
{quote} If it closes as i've said then I will enter on a retrace to the level with my FTA being the shown level. Oh And I don't use HCR and LCS levels in the traditional sense.
A trade am now in
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  • #66
  • Apr 10, 2014 3:56pm Apr 10, 2014 3:56pm
Quoting albus999
{quote} A trade am now in {image}
Nice one!
Chart looks a lot like those Mike used to post back on his old days here on FF.
The ones your see at the beginning of all image attachments.

I somehow fail to see a PA formation around your buy line.
What am I missing?

W
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #67
  • Edited 4:52pm Apr 10, 2014 4:24pm | Edited 4:52pm
AUD/NZD has succesfully made a BUOB and confirmed it by by exceeding it's high after NY closed.

Therefor two entries have opened up, both with 70 units, one for TP @ FTA and one to run.
TP1 = 1.0887 (slightly under the boxes ceilings)

A simple, don't mess with the SL too quickly will suffice for the first half, but for the second half I want be at BE.
I have chosen for a Relative Break-even point (1.0777)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzddaily klein plan.png Size: 30 KB


Then, once price closes higher than 1.09, the SL will be moved up to 1.0795, still allowing it space to retrace, but a slight profit is locked in.
Once 1.094 is hit, the SL goes to 1.0895 where it will stay untill it's hit, or the TP2 @ 1.11899 is processed.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzddaily groot plan.png Size: 30 KB


W
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #68
  • Apr 10, 2014 5:24pm Apr 10, 2014 5:24pm
Quoting Donaciello
AUD/NZD has succesfully made a BUOB and confirmed it by by exceeding it's high after NY closed. Therefor two entries have opened up, both with 70 units, one for TP @ FTA and one to run. TP1 = 1.0887 (slightly under the boxes ceilings) A simple, don't mess with the SL too quickly will suffice for the first half, but for the second half I want be at BE. I have chosen for a Relative Break-even point (1.0777) {image} Then, once price closes higher than 1.09, the SL will be moved up to 1.0795, still allowing it space to retrace, but a slight profit is...

Entry-levels were hit, just prior to me opening up the orders.
I was writing an e-mail, where as I should have hoover my mouse at the submit button.
A bit like the guy who cleans the fish tank 15 sec. before market open, in 'Wolf of Wallst.'

Anyway, the entry plan slightly changed, as I used a buy stop (1.08603) instead of a buy limit (1.0832); a change for which I accounted in risk by using 112 units instead of 140.

The stoploss remains unchanged.
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #69
  • Apr 10, 2014 6:01pm Apr 10, 2014 6:01pm
Quoting Donaciello
{quote} Entry-levels were hit, just prior to me opening up the orders. I was writing an e-mail, where as I should have hoover my mouse at the submit button. A bit like the guy who cleans the fish tank 15 sec. before market open, in 'Wolf of Wallst.' Anyway, the entry plan slightly changed, as I used a buy stop (1.08603) instead of a buy limit (1.0832); a change for which I accounted in risk by using 112 units instead of 140. The stoploss remains unchanged.
Well I missed the AUDNZD trade. OK the train is gone and another one will be back.
  • #70
  • Edited Apr 11, 2014 8:58am Apr 10, 2014 7:18pm | Edited Apr 11, 2014 8:58am
Quoting albus999
{quote} Well I missed the AUDNZD trade. OK the train is gone and another one will be back.
Well done being patient!

I wasn't and still I'm hearing the vioce in my head asking whether I cocked up the entry or not.
Time will tell I guess. (Edit: Time told me I definitely cocked up the entry.)

Will analyse my decisions more deeply once I'm on the sidelines again, regardless of result.
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #71
  • Apr 13, 2014 2:44pm Apr 13, 2014 2:44pm
A new week, new setups.

I'll be less active over the coming week[s], as my daily occupation will need my time.
As for trading Daily/Weekly, that's not worrying, I'll have to get used to not checking on trades for a while anyway, so the coming setups will be a good patience, no fuck-up practice.

EURNZD (short): E: 1.5992; SL: 1.6120 (128p); TP: 1.5903 (89p)
Small, range-bound trade, on a pin bar off confluence.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzddaily pinbar.png Size: 33 KB

Critical in this trade, is that BRN 1.6000 holds, and therefor, a daily close above 1.6 will see me exit early.

USD/CAD (long): E: 1.09607; SL: 1.08499 (111p); TP: 1.11975 (236p)
Bigger, yet still range-bound trade, on a pinbar that faked out of a box consolidation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcadweekly pin.png Size: 21 KB

Crucial is that after it re-test the left-eye (where my order is located) quickly fails and starts trading above 1.1
Once 1.1050 is touched, SL goes to BE, and the position will be closed manually if a close below 1.1 is seen on the weekly.

CAD/JPY (Short): E: 92.91; SL: 95.05 (214p); TP: 91.10 (191p)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpyweekly.png Size: 27 KB

A touch of 91.95 will move the stop to BE.


I'm very curious as to what will happen to my currently open AUD/NZD position this week.
I'll be looking to cut it's risk this week, or close it altogether.


Kind regards,
W
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #72
  • Apr 13, 2014 6:34pm Apr 13, 2014 6:34pm
Quoting Donaciello
A new week, new setups. I'll be less active over ..................... A touch of 91.95 will move the stop to BE. I'm very curious as to what will happen to my currently open AUD/NZD position this week. I'll be looking to cut it's risk this week, or close it altogether. Kind regards, W
Hey D, just entered the eurnzd trade the 1.5900 is crucial FTA where I would pocket my profit. and take a break out using a 4hr or 1hr TF to trade the breakout of the squeeze pattern forming. The chart below shows it . About the cadjpy trade you are planning to take i think you should be wary of the 92.00RN just below the 2 week PB. I think a smooth break should get us there if we break the PB.

Al
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #73
  • Apr 13, 2014 7:12pm Apr 13, 2014 7:12pm
Quoting albus999
{quote} Hey D, just entered the eurnzd trade the 1.5900 is crucial FTA where I would pocket my profit. and take a break out using a 4hr or 1hr TF to trade the breakout of the squeeze pattern forming. The chart below shows it . About the cadjpy trade you are planning to take i think you should be wary of the 92.00RN just below the 2 week PB. I think a smooth break should get us there if we break the PB. Al {image}
A correct observation.

The 1.5900 is very critical in the E/N trade, which is why TP is 3 pip above, but on approach, I'd TP as well (Taking in account spread could still keep me from T'ing P ).

The 92 in CAD/JPY was accounted for with the BE manouvre at a touch of 91.95.
Ofcourse I'm not going to bitch on a pip or 2 to reduce risk, so a touch of 91.98, or 92.02 before areversal, is fine too. SL > BE .

Good setups posted on 'the thread' too!
Keep it up!

W
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #74
  • Apr 13, 2014 7:38pm Apr 13, 2014 7:38pm
Quoting Donaciello
{quote} A correct observation. The 1.5900 is very critical in the E/N trade, which is why TP is 3 pip above, but on approach, I'd TP as well (Taking in account spread could still keep me from T'ing P ). The 92 in CAD/JPY was accounted for with the BE manouvre at a touch of 91.95. Ofcourse I'm not going to bitch on a pip or 2 to reduce risk, so a touch of 91.98, or 92.02 before areversal, is fine too. SL > BE . Good setups posted on 'the thread' too! Keep it up! W
I cancelled the order on EUR/NZD, as the gap fill didn't trigger my order.
Given the overall lack of space to work with, I didn't really like this market open.
Better setups will come along.
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #75
  • Apr 14, 2014 7:24am Apr 14, 2014 7:24am
Quoting Donaciello
A new week, new setups...
Both the USD/CAD long and the CAD/JPY short have been processed.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcadweekly entry is active.png Size: 24 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpyweekly entry is actief.png Size: 33 KB


W
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #76
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:33am Apr 16, 2014 5:33am
Quoting Donaciello
AUD/NZD (...) BUOB
TP was hit, and 1.09 was touched, but sold off, so I decided to close the position in total, because I wasn't that happy with it to begin with.
I'm still comfortably in the CAD-based positions, I'll check back on those at NY close, but expect nothing to happen.

W
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #77
  • Apr 17, 2014 1:39am Apr 17, 2014 1:39am
Usd/cad

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcaddaily sl be.png Size: 26 KB


sl > be.
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  • #78
  • Apr 17, 2014 9:25am Apr 17, 2014 9:25am
If there's anyone reading here, with a decent proficiency of financial modeling, please send me a PM.
I've made a risk-management system, which I would like to test under a couple of scenario's.

For example, I'd like to know how many consecutive losses this system allows me to make before reaching 0.
I'd also like to know what happens if all trades taken would land in a 1R profit.
Then, I'd like a model, which randomly creates a list of numbers somewhere between -1 & 1 on a 50/50 basis.

The point of this is to find out my systems capability of expanding profit, while limiting risk using recent (specific) trading results.

I'm a 100% noob as far as excel or financial modeling is concerned, but I'd like to have some scenario's tested.

If you're good with spreadsheets and math, please contact me, so I can send the documents explaining the systems mechaniscs.

Thanks in advance,

W
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #79
  • Edited 7:21pm Apr 23, 2014 11:44am | Edited 7:21pm
I've just opened up a pending Short on AUD/CHF.
edit: position was entered

A BEOB rejects the top of a box-consolidation, and breaks below (RN: 0.82).
If price pulls back, it should be pushed out of it's prior consolidation, and therefore I'll close the position early if a H4 close > 0.823 happens.

Plan:

Retrace entry @ 0.8199
If H4 closes above 0.8230, exit.
If 0.8165 is touched, stop moves down to 0.8227
If 0.8150 is touched, stop moves to 0.8205
No further intervention.

Chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audchfh4 setup.png Size: 26 KB
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #80
  • Apr 24, 2014 9:12am Apr 24, 2014 9:12am
Quoting Donaciello
I've just opened up a pending Short on AUD/CHF. edit: position was entered A BEOB rejects the top of a box-consolidation, and breaks below (RN: 0.82). If price pulls back, it should be pushed out of it's prior consolidation, and therefore I'll close the position early if a H4 close > 0.823 happens. Plan: Retrace entry @ 0.8199 If H4 closes above 0.8230, exit. If 0.8165 is touched, stop moves down to 0.8227 If 0.8150 is touched, stop moves to 0.8205 No further intervention. Chart: {image}
Price touched 0.8165; SL moved to 0.8227
A close below 0.8150 and I'll move the stop to 0.8205 until TP is hit.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audchfh4 sl move1.png Size: 34 KB
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